World trade


bibliography, SEcTION III



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bibliography, SEcTION III

Ahamed, Liaquat (2011), Currency Wars, Then and Now. How Policymakers Can Avoid the Perils of the 1930s, Foreign Affairs (March/April).


Astroga, Alfredo, Baquero, Marco and María B. Freire (2003), Propuesta de Salvaguardias Cambiarias, Apunte de Economía 35, Banco Central del Ecuador.
Baumann, Renato (2010), Regional Trade and Growth in Asia and Latin America: The Importance of Productive Complementarity, World Bank and UN/ECLAC.
Birdsall, Nancy and Francis Fukuyama (2011), The Post-Washington Consensus. Development After the Crisis, Foreign Affairs (March/April).
Busch, Marc L. and Levy, Philip I. (2010), The Case Against a China Currency Case, The American: Journal of the American Enterprise Institute (October 7).
Chandrasekhar, C. P. (2010), Global imbalances and the Dollar's Future, Economic & Political Weekly EPW 5 (No. 23).
Chinn, Menzie D. and Shang-Jin Wei (2008), A Faith-based Initiative: Does a Flexible Exchange Rate Regime Really Facilitate Current Account Adjustment?, NBER Working Paper 14420, National Bureau of Economic Research.
Eichengreen, Barry and Douglas A. Irwin (2009), The Slide to Protectionism in the Great Depression: Who Succumbed and Why?, NBER Working Paper 15142, National Bureau of Economic Research.
Frenkel, Jacob A. and Assaf Razin (1987), The Mundell-Fleming Model: A Quarter Century Later, NBER Working Paper 2321, National Bureau of Economic Research.
Imbs, Jean and Isabelle Méjean (2010), Trade Elasticities. A Final Report for the European Commission, Economic Papers 432, European Commission.
Kasa, Kenneth and Chan Huh (2001), A Dynamic Model of Export Competition, Policy Coordination, and Simmultaneous Currency Collapse, Review of International Economics 9 (1): 68-80.
Krugman, Paul (1987), Adjustment in the World Economy, NBER Working Paper 2424, National Bureau of Economic Research.
Kyriacou, George and Maria Papageorghiou (2010, Assessing the Equilibrium Exchange Rate of the Cyprus Pound at the time of Euro Adoption, Working Paper Series 2010-6, Central Bank of Cyprus.
Lane, Philip R. and Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti (2002), External wealth, the trade balance, and the real exchange rate, European Economic Review 46 (June): 1049-1071.
Li, Xiangming (2003), Trade Liberalization and Real Exchange Rate Movement, IMF Staff Papers 51 (No. 3): 553-584.
Obstfeld, Maurice (2002), Mundell-Fleming Lecture: International Macroeconomics: Beyond the Mundell-Fleming Model, IMF Staff Papers 47 (Special issue): 1-39.
Rajan, Raghuram G. (2011), Currencies Aren't the Problem. Fix Domestic Policy, Not Exchange Rates, Foreign Policy (March/April).
Rey, Hélène (2001), International Trade and Currency Exchange Source, The Review of Economic Studies 68 (No. 2): 443-464.
Secretaría General de la Comunidad Andina (Compiler) (2001), La dolarizacion en ecuador: Efectos sobre el comercio andino, Secretaría General de la Comunidad Andina, available at http://www.comunidadandina.org/public/libro_2.htm

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1 Document WT/WGTDF/M/22.

2 IMF (2004), Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade Flows - Some New Evidences, Washington D.C., circulated in the WTO as Document WT/WGTDF/W/24.

3 Document WT/WGTDF/M/22.

4 The choice of exchange rate regimes and their macroeconomic implications have been well debated subjects since the collapse of the Bretton-Woods system. A pre-requisite for an examination of this subject is a review of an equally rich literature on the classification of exchange rates regimes - both de facto and de jure. For a review of this branch of the literature (exchange rate regimes and implications), we recommend Qureshi, Mahavash and Charalambos Tsangarides (2010), The Empirics of Exchange Rate Regimes and Trade: Words vs. Deeds, IMF Working Paper WP/10/48.

5 The terms "depreciation" and "devaluation" are used here interchangeably as the fall of the value of a country's currency relative to another currency or to a basket of currencies. The latter term generally refers to the specific case where the currency was previously pegged to a metallic anchor such as gold or to another currency.

6 Document WT/GC/444.

7 In De Grauwe's model, exchange rate variability has two effects on risk-adverse firms: an income effect, whereby the expected reduced utility derived from higher uncertainty of profits leads the firms to increase its sales abroad, and a substitution effect, whereby higher uncertainty deriving from volatile exchange rate would lead the firm to reduce trade. At the highest level of risk aversion, the income effect exceeds the substitution effect.

8 The gravity model used by the IMF performs relatively well empirically, yielding coefficients and estimates in line with expectations deriving from other empirical work, and from economic theory. The coefficient for distance is statistically significant and negative, and the coefficient for GDP and other economic masses is equally statistically significant and positive. Other control variables yield the expected signs and significance.

9 Specifically, when time varying country fixed effects are allowed, which are suggested by theoretical work on the gravity model specification, "the analysis does not reveal a negative association between volatility and trade" (page 55). However, on page 49, it is stated that "a negative effect is still observed when we control for unobservable cultural, economic, historical, geographical and other factors specific to a given pair of countries rather than individual countries.

10 Several papers submitted by WTO members point to the impact of exchange rate shifts on bilateral trade or on the aggregate the trade balance. For example, Rincon (1999) finds that, over the period 1979 to 1995, exchange rate depreciation of the Colombian currency had an important role in the short- and long-term improvement of the Colombian trade balance.

11 In earlier work, though, Rose (1991) had found no evidence of a negative relationship between exchange rates and trade on a set of G-7 countries in the 1980s.

12 As noted in the last sub-section of part B, research on the impact of exchange rate volatility and trade has nevertheless continued and deepened.

13 Several authors made this point, including among others Bergsten (2007) and Mattoo and Subramanian (2009).

14 Simulations showed that above median-performance French firms in their panel react to a 10 per cent depreciation by increasing destination-specific export prices in euros by some 2 per cent. Below median performance firms kept their prices unchanged. The inverse was true for export volumes. The high performance firms kept their export volumes unchanged while below median performance firms increased their export volumes by 6 per cent in the face of a10 per cent depreciation.

15 The IMF has brought the attention of the Secretariat to several of the studies and references contained in this section.

16 However, for a more pessimistic view of this positive relationship, see Santos Silva and Tenreyro (2010).


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