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Business Day (South Africa): Emerging markets.
Simon Freemantle

969 words

3 December 2007

Business Day (South Africa)

MEWBUD

13

English

The Financial Times Limited. Asia Africa Intelligence Wire. All material subject to copyright. Business Day (South Africa) © 2007 All rights reserved.
AS THE year draws to a close, Africa is able to look back on a period of unprecedented economic growth, largely on the back of a seemingly unstoppable commodities boom and increased political stability throughout the continent. For foreign investors, Africa has never been as attractive. Capital flow into Africa's small stock exchanges has increased gradually, thereby increasing liquidity and raising the portfolio of the bourses. Several African countries, most notably Mauritius, Ghana and Kenya, were some of the strongest reformers on the World Bank's Ease of Doing Business index this year. Nigeria, the powerhouse of West Africa, rode fairly successfully through its potentially tumultuous elections in March and continues to record strong growth, flowing in large part from the consolidation of the financial services sector and the ongoing clampdown on corruption and mismanagement.
Under Umar Yar'Adua Nigeria is hoping for more local beneficiation in the oil sector, while simultaneously stimulating the solid minerals and natural gas sectors, two areas which have long been ignored in a country obsessed with oil. On current growth statistics Nigeria will be the third most populous country in the world by 2050, behind China and India, and a major global player, not just in the resource sector. Other countries benefiting from the oil boom have been Mauritania, Equatorial Guinea and Angola which is forecast to record a gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate of over 20% this year. On the solid minerals side, Zambia continues to record strong economic growth in light of current global copper prices, increasing economic ties with China and the decay of its neighbour Zimbabwe, which has given impetus to Zambia's agricultural industry. For many the past year was characterised by a further consolidation of China-Africa relations, with Beijing rapidly extending its economic and diplomatic ties throughout the continent. With the state-owned Industrial and Commercial Bank of China's (ICBC's) $5,6bn purchase of 20% of Standard Bank and China Development Bank's deal with Nigeria's United Bank for Africa, China has indicated that it views Africa as a long-term partner whose importance extends beyond the resources sector. With China tipped to become the number one economy in the world by 2050, Africa would do well to continue to nurture this relationship. Other emerging market powerhouses such as India and Brazil have also expressed renewed interest in Africa, although the potential of so-called South-South economic cooperation is far from being realised. Russia, which has openly acknowledged how far behind it has fallen in the pursuit for African economic ties, seems intent on moving into the continent, with oil giant Lukoil and financial conglomerate Renaissance Capital leading the charge, mostly into West Africa. Investments into Africa from the Middle East have also been strong, with the telecommunications sector in particular attracting significant interest. South African asset and fund managers seem to be realising Africa's potential, with several of the more established companies opening sizeable Africa funds to invest in stocks and funds throughout the continent.
Apart from ongoing tensions in Somalia, Sudan, southern Chad and unrest in the Niger Delta, Africa is at peace. The feared elections in Sierra Leone went off smoothly, with opposition leader Ernest Bai Koroma and his All People's Congress winning both the parliamentary and presidential elections. African states such as Rwanda, under Paul Kagame, and Liberia, under Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf, are proving the value of sound leadership and that democracy can work on the continent. However, these developments, while promising, pale in comparison with the work that lies ahead for African states to realise their full potential and create sustainable growth and equitable distribution of wealth throughout society. Leadership, both societal and governmental, is key to this growth. For every strong leader in Africa there remains a host of bad apples. The capital required to fuel growth in Africa exists, but is being held by too few people at the top of corrupt regimes seemingly oblivious to the plight of their people. On the issue of leadership, two key upcoming elections are the general elections in Kenya, where incumbent head of state Mwai Kibaki is facing a mounting challenge from the left-leaning Raila Odinga, and the South African ruling party's national conference, which will determine the leader, and by extension the economic direction, of the continent's hegemon come 2009. Two other key problems which critically require attention in the coming year are those of infrastructure, which includes the crippled African power sector, and diversification of economies away from single commodity dependence. Angola's GDP growth may be amongst the highest in the world, but there is little beyond oil fuelling it, unless the Angolan government makes rapid moves to use oil revenues to stimulate the country's manufacturing, tourism, retail and services sectors to mention a few . On the infrastructure side, power generation should be the number one priority for all sub-Saharan African states. Without reliable and affordable electricity there can be no manufacturing growth. Africa can take a lead in green technology, using bio-fuels, natural gas, ethanol and coal-bed methane to power itself in a world running out of answers to the pending global warming disaster. The world seems to be waking up to Africa, and Africa is gradually realising what this means regarding its position vis-a-vis the global political economy. Capitalising on this impetus and improving the mechanisms necessary for sustained economic growth, rather than scrambling for the wealth created this year, should be the ultimate priority of African governments in 2008. is senior business analyst at Emerging Market Focus (e-mail: [e-mail]).
EMERGING MARKETS Simon Freemantle urges African governments to exploit the world's interest in the continent
FBUD60555821
Document MEWBUD0020071204e3c30004b

Banking

Sino-Africa M&A: Chinese bring banks into their Africa strategy

Rupert Wright

952 words

1 December 2007

Euromoney

EURMY

English

© Copyright 2007 Euromoney Institutional Investor plc. www.euromoney.com
Chen Wenjun of the State Council Information Office and Jacko Maree, CEO of Standard Bank, exchange gifts in Johannesburg

The scramble for Africa just became institutionalized. Anyone who thought that the latest round of deals in Africa – led mainly by the Chinese – would be limited to the commodity sector had better revise their views. Two developments in the past month show that the Chinese are willing, even desperate, to take stakes in financial institutions on the continent. All indications suggest that direct investment inflows into Africa, some $39 billion in 2006, according to Unctad, the UN trade and development agency, are likely to be much higher for 2007. Some analysts expect the figure to hit $100 billion by 2010.
The first deal, announced on October 31, is a partnership between Nigeria’s United Bank of Africa and China Development Bank. Details on the level of credit available to UBA are not being disclosed but it is understood to be significant. UBA feels it has stolen a march on its rivals and done the region a favour as well. "This partnership will contribute to strengthening of the economic cooperation between China and Nigeria and indeed the sub-region," says Tony Elumelu, chief executive of UBA. "The long-term funding gap in Africa is the highest in the world and this partnership will seek to close that gap."
UBA is hoping the first deals with China Development Bank, the financing of a power project, will be signed by the end of March 2008. "We will refrain from mentioning any particular projects until we finalize the terms and conditions of the partnership," says Elumelu. "But suffice to say that the scope is wide and sectors are varied and will include, but not be limited to, oil and gas (both upstream, downstream and petrochemicals), power, telecommunications, road construction, railway development, solid minerals and agriculture."
China Development Bank has assets larger than the World Bank and Asian Development Bank combined. The tie-up with UBA shows that oil and power remain one of China’s main preoccupations in Africa. "This deal will allow easier access to credit lines and give UBA the edge over its peers in securing project finance deals," says Sruti Patel, African banking analyst at Renaissance Capital. "We believe the CDB partnership will give UBA the ability to hold its own on a playing field that includes Standard Chartered, Standard Bank and Barclays. From a bigger picture point of view, the deal provides more evidence of Chinese entities making inroads into Africa via partnerships or direct investments."
Elumelu agrees. "I think this is a very positive development for Nigerian banking," he says. "With yet another major source for providing much-needed medium-term and long-term financing, especially for infrastructural developments, the banking sector will be seen to contribute even more in economic developments, and this will certainly help build more confidence in the sector. Also, even though this may be controversial, we have noticed the competition between Asia and the west, especially as it relates to the opportunities in Africa. As competition always leads to greater efficiency at reduced cost, my personal belief is that the partnership we have with CDB as well as other collaborations between African institutions and other important bodies from Asia like the China Exim, Sinosure, and others, will trigger more interest from their counterparts in the west, and in the end, businesses and development in Africa will be the better for it, as long as the governments and financial institutions in Africa play their expected role well."
Earlier this year China Development Bank bought a 3% stake in Barclays Bank. One of the reasons cited for this investment was the ability to tap into China-to-Africa trade flows.
The other deal that has excited the market, announced early in November, is a R36.7 billion ($5.5 billion) cash offer by ICBC, China’s biggest lender and the largest bank in the world by market capitalization, for a 20% stake in Standard Bank, South Africa’s largest banking group. It is more of a marriage than a partnership, and suggests that China plans to be in Africa for the long run. If approved by Standard Bank shareholders, this would be the biggest overseas acquisition by a Chinese bank and the largest foreign investment in Africa. The deal was negotiated in a short time frame. The first approach was made by the Chinese at the IMF meeting in Washington at the end of October. The offer was put to the board. There will be shareholder meetings in both South Africa and China.
"All being well, the deal will go through in either January or February," says Erik Larsen, a spokesman for Standard Bank in South Africa. This is not the first step in the acquisition of Standard Bank by ICBC. The governor of the Reserve Bank has made it plain that he doesn’t want to see foreign ownership of South African banks. However, there are mutual benefits for both parties. Larsen says that Standard Bank will give ICBC customers a platform throughout Africa, presence in other emerging markets outside Africa, and trade and project finance deals. ICBC offers substantial balance sheet strength and a strong presence in the Chinese market.
In a parallel development, Standard Bank and ICBC will establish a $1 billion fund to invest in natural resources, specializing in mining, metals, oil and gas and associated industries. The initial commitment of the fund would be $500 million, with Standard Bank and ICBC committing equal percentages. There is also the potential for third parties to participate and invest.
Document EURMY00020080519e3c1000a3

STATE DEPARTMENT ISSUES BACKGROUND NOTE ON GAMBIA
3,565 words

1 December 2007

US Fed News

INDFED

English

© Copyright 2007. HT Media Limited. All rights reserved.
WASHINGTON, Dec. 1 -- The U.S. Department of State's Bureau of Intelligence and Research Electronic Affairs Publication Office issued the following Background Note:
PROFILE
OFFICIAL NAME:
Republic of The Gambia
GEOGRAPHY
Area: 11,300 sq. km. (4,361 sq. mi.); less than half the size of Maryland.
Cities: Capital-Banjul (pop. 34,828 excluding suburbs; 2003 census provisional).
Terrain: Flood plain of the Gambia River flanked by low hills.
Climate: Tropical; hot rainy season (June to November); cooler, dry season (November to May).
PEOPLE
Nationality: Noun and adjective-Gambian(s).
Population (2006): 1.5 million.
Annual growth rate (2003 census): 2.8%.
Ethnic groups (2003 census): Mandinka 42%, Fula 18%, Wolof 16%, Jola 10%, Sarahule 9%, Serere 7.8%, Krio/Aku Marabout 1.8%, Manjago 0.8%, Bambara 0.7%, other Gambians 1.2%, no declaration 0.3%.
Non-Gambians 12.9% of the population.
Religions: Muslim 90%, Christian 9%, other 1%.
Languages: English (official), Mandinka, Wolof, Fula, Jola, Sarahule, other indigenous languages.
Education: Years compulsory-up to age eight. Attendance-69% primary, 35% secondary. Adult literacy-37.8%.
Health: Life expectancy-57 yrs (2005 est.). Infant mortality rate (2005)-97/1,000. Access to safe drinking water (2004)-urban 95%, rural 77%.
Work force (400,000): Agriculture-70%; industry, commerce, services-24%; government-6%.
GOVERNMENT
Type: Republic.
Independence: February 18, 1965.
Constitution: January 16, 1997.
Branches: Executive, legislative, and judicial.
Subdivisions: Capital and six divisions.
Political parties: Alliance for Patriotic Reorientation and Construction (APRC), United Democratic Party (UDP), National Reconciliation Party (NRP), National Convention Party (NCP), Peoples Democratic Organization for Independence and Socialism (PDOIS), National Democratic Action Movement (NDAM), and the Gambia Party for Democracy and Progress (GPDP).
ECONOMY
GDP (2006): $511.4 million.
Annual growth rate (2006): 6.5%.
Per capita income (2006): $356.
Natural resources: Seismic studies indicate the possible presence of oil and gas offshore.
Services: 56% of GDP, 2006.
Agriculture (29.8% of GDP, 2006): Products-peanuts, rice, millet, sorghum, fish, palm kernels, vegetables, livestock, forestry.
Industry (10.9% of GDP, 2006): Types-peanut products, construction, telecommunications, brewing, soft drinks, agricultural machinery assembly, woodworking, metal working, clothing.
Trade: (2004 est.): Principal exports-$123.3 million: 13% groundnut products, 4.2% fish and fish preparations, and 82.1% re-exports. Major markets-India 37.6%, U.K. 19.4%, France 5.8%, and Thailand 3.9%. Principal imports-$207.2 million including food and beverages, manufactures, machinery and transport equipment, and minerals and fuel. Major suppliers-China, Senegal, Brazil, U.K., and Netherlands.
Official Development Assistance (ODA) received from all sources (2001): $50.9 million.
U.S. economic