SOUTH AFRICA 3% Source: IMF Note: Table made from line graph.
COPYRIGHT 2006 Circle Publishing Ltd. Document GEOM000020061223e2c100010 Focus
China and Africa tie the knot
Ford, Neil
2,230 words
1 December 2006
African Business
AFBZ
38
Issue 326; ISSN: 01413929
English
Copyright (c) 2006 Bell & Howell Information and Learning Company. All rights reserved. One of the biggest gatherings of African heads of state and ministers outside the continent took place in Beijing last month. The summit has confirmed the new relationship between a resurgent China and Africa. Trade is expected to hit $100bn a year by 2010 and a whole slew of new projects are in the pipeline. NeM Ford assesses what this means to Africa. The growing economic relationship between China and sub-Saharan Africa was confirmed by November's grand meeting in Beijing. The Sino-African Summit had been heralded by the Chinese government as a breakthrough in relations between the two regions - and African leaders left the Chinese capital in no doubt that a major new source of foreign direct investment (FDI) had emerged. Chinese interest in the continent has widely been portrayed as a campaign for hydrocarbons but there are growing signs that the relationship could yield far more than oil revenues for investment hungry African states. Heads of state and ministers from most African governments participated in the summit. At the meeting, the Chinese government promised to double its aid to African countries by 2009. It is difficult to put such a pledge into context because Beijing does not publish details of its aid budget. Moreover, there is likely to be a blurred line between the level of Chinese investment and bilateral aid as a result of Beijing's tendency to tie infrastructural projects with oil and gas sector investment. Chinese officials also revealed that the country's import duty regime will be made more favourable to African exporters. In particular, the number of goods that will be able to enter the country duty free will be doubled, although again Beijing has yet to flesh out the details of the new regulations. Another announcement concerned the creation of development funds intended to build new hospitals and schools and train 15,000 African workers for skilled positions. The Chinese government predicts that total annual trade with Africa will reach $100bn by 2010, a massive increase on the 2005 figure of $42bn, which itself is 10 times bigger than bilateral trade in 1995. As recently as 1990, just 9% of African imports went to Asia; today, that proportion has tripled to 27%. According to the World Bank, the value of African goods exported to Asia is rising by 18% a year, although most of this figure is accounted for by oil exports. The main participants seemed enthused by the opportunities afforded by the summit. Chinese Vice-Premier Wu Yi said: "We take great pride in China's strong and warm friendship with Africa," while China's President Hu Jintao commented: "Our meeting today will go down in history. China will forever be a good friend, good partner and good brother of Africa." Meles Zenawi, the prime minister of Ethiopia, said: "Our main challenge now is not to fight colonialism, but fighting poverty and backwardness and achieving economic independence. Africa needs the support of its friends to overcome this challenge." This pledge could be seen as an effort to overcome what has been seen as one of the main drawbacks of Chinese projects in Africa. Chinese companies, whether state owned or private sector firms, have a track record of using Chinese designs, engineering, labourers and sometimes also raw materials to build projects. The host country is left with a new railway Une or power plant but the local economy misses out on many other potential benefits. Development schemes from most other sources over the past few years have tended to include a large element of training, in order to enable African engineers and other professionals to maintain whatever facility has been built and help to develop similar ventures in the same country. Infrastructural and mining deals Infrastructural and mining deals worth a total of $1.9bn were announced at the summit, including $200m of investment in the Zambian copper sector, a $300m road upgrade scheme in Nigeria, plus a $300m investment in an Egyptian aluminium project. The agreements formed part of a string of such deals that have been concluded over the past two years. The most high profile agreement to date has been the $8bn contract awarded to China Civil Engineering Construction Corporation (CCECC) by the Nigerian government. The Chinese firm will build a 1,315km railway from Lagos in the south to Kano in the north, partly with the assistance of a loan from the Chinese government. CCECC has promised to employ 50,000 Nigerians on the five-year construction project, while the company is expected to maintain the line once it is up and running. (see page 50). The rail deal appears to form part of a wider agreement between the Chinese and Nigerian governments. This has included the $2.6bn purchase of a 45% stake in the OML130 concession offshore Nigeria from South Atlantic Petroleum Limited (SAPETRO) in April. The block includes the Akpo field, with 65Om barrels of condensâtes and 2.5 trillion cubic feet (tcf) of natural gas, and lies at the heart of Nigeria's highly prospective Gulf of Guinea deepwater acreage. A similarly wide-ranging agreement was reached between the Chinese and Angolan government last year, which encompassed an interest free loan, upstream assets for Sinopec of China and investment in the Angolan telecoms sector by another Chinese firm, ZTE Corporation. However, it would be wrong to characterise China's interest in Africa as something new. Chinese vessels landed along the east coast of Africa during the medieval period before one of China's periodic cultural revolutions saw the entire national fleet destroyed in order to prevent contact with the outside world. More recently, China was a small player in the various Cold War struggles that were fought in Africa and launched a major investment programme in the continent during the 1970s. One of the lasting legacies of this period is the Tanzania Zambia Railway (Tazara), which was built with Chinese finance and tens of thousands of Chinese workers. It was constructed from Dar es Salaam south-westwards through Tanzania and into Zambia in order to reduce the region's reliance on the then apartheid regime in South Africa. The international view There are many different ways of looking at die Chinese influx. The international press has fought shy of the comparison but it would be easy to portray growing Chinese interest in Africa as part of the UK government's campaign for a fairer deal for Africa that focused on aid, debt and trade and which was showcased at Gleneagles in July last year. From being a virtual diplomatic backwater until fairly recentiy, the attitudes of the world's leading economic nations towards African development are now a significant strand of their foreign policies. On the other hand, some in the international community, particularly in the West, have criticised China's attitude towards some African countries, notably, its refusal to criticise Zimbabwe's President Robert Mugabe and its reluctance to persuade the Sudanese government to accept UN peacekeepers in Darfur. Beijing's critics have claimed Chinese investment is being used to support repressive and autocratic regimes in Africa, purely so China can gain access to natural resources. There does seem to be some validity in this argument. The activities of Western firms that invest in developing countries generally come under a great deal more scrutiny than state-owned Chinese companies. In the past, concerted campaigns have forced investors out of countries with governments that are perceived as having a poor record on human rights. However, Western governments propped up a number of undemocratic African regimes during the Cold War in order to counter Soviet influence or to secure access to natural resources. It would therefore be wrong to see the Chinese strategy as anything new. As many claim, the driving force behind China's interest in Africa is oil. Until 1995, China was actually a net oil exporter but now imports 3m barrels a day (b/d) and this figure is set to rise rapidly over the next decade. Like all other major importers and other countries with pretensions of global political importance, Beijing has therefore been forced to confront the issue of energy security. When Chinese state-owned companies were able to source the lion's share of their raw materials domestically, relations with African nations were of little import. Now, however, Beijing is keen to promote strong ties with the governments of key supplier nations. It is also eager to ensure that Chinese oil and gas companies acquire a large portfolio of overseas assets, so that at least a proportion of the country's oil and gas requirements can be guaranteed. Some have connected China's economic success in Africa with its refusal to criticise the continent's leaders. However, Liberia's President Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf commented: "When it comes to certain continental political positions, I think Africa must look at the positions we take, irrespective of what stance China takes, whether it is on Darfur, whatever else, and I think many of us African leaders have in fact taken independent positions that may or may not be consistent with China's own policy stance. "In Liberia, we're trying to settle our huge debt problem. China wanted to provide some resources on the basis of sovereign guarantees. We said 'no, we can't take your money on that basis'." In many sectors, African companies cannot hope to compete with firms from other parts of the world in the short term, because they either do not have the industrial capacity, the technology, the skills or the experience. Since the independence era, most African economies have therefore continued to survive on the export of raw materials, which are largely sold in an unprocessed form. However, it had been hoped that the continent's manufacturing capacity could grow strong on the export of low cost goods, such as textiles. But new trade deals with China could give Chinese textiles producers better access to African markets, thereby helping to undermine African manufacturers. The same process occurred during the colonial era in eastern Africa, when the local iron industry was virtually wiped out by cheaper imports from India. However, it is generally expected that Chinese interest in Africa will have a positive economic impact on the continent. Infrastructural projects will be developed that Western firms have been reluctant to support and increased competition should drive up the price of natural resources. In addition, rising Chinese investment in Africa could prompt greater interest in the continent from investment funds. Many exclude Africa entirely from their portfolios, while others dedicate only a tiny fraction of their finances to African assets. Increasing awareness of the value of African resources should only be good for the continent. POLITICS The Taiwan five Five countries that are likely to miss out on Chinese investment are Burkina Faso, Gambia, Malawi, Sao Tome & Principe and Swaziland, all of which recognise Taiwan rather than China. The two Asian countries have fought a long diplomatic war for international recognition since the end of the Chinese civil war in 1949, when the communists held the mainland and the nationalist forces retained the island of Taiwan. Since then, the Chinese authorities have viewed Taiwan as a renegade province rather than a sovereign state and have refused to have diplomatic ties with some countries that did recognise Taiwan's Independence. The impact of the dispute on Africa to date has largely been restricted to aid. Taiwan and China have both offered large aid packages to any African states that offered them sole recognition. The number of countries recognising Taiwan has fallen in recent years, in Africa as elsewhere, but the five nations continue to side with Taiwan. Gambia, Malawi and the others were not entitled to full participation in the Beijing summit but were offered the opportunity to send observers. It will be interesting to see how the situation develops over the next few years. China may be able to offer large-scale investment but Taiwan is a prosperous nation in its own right and could launch its own investment counter-offensive if it chose to do so. While such heightened competition may raise tensions in East Asia, it would also boost investment and aid in Africa, so the five pro-Taiwanese African states may not yet lose out financially. The growing economic relationship between China and sub-Saharan Africa was confirmed by November's grand meeting in Beijing. The Sino-African Summit had been heralded by the Chinese government as a breakthrough in relations between the two regions -- and African leaders left the Chinese capital in no doubt that a major new source of foreign direct investment had emerged. Chinese interest in the continent has widely been portrayed as a campaign for hydrocarbons but there are growing signs that the relationship could yield far more than oil revenues for investment hungry African states. Chinese officials revealed that the country's import duty regime will be made more favorable to African exporters. As many claim, the driving force behind China's interest in Africa is oil. However, it is generally expected that Chinese interest in Africa will have a positive economic impact on the continent. In addition, rising Chinese investment in Africa could prompt greater interest in the continent from investment fluids. Copyright International Communications Dec 2006 Document AFBZ000020061216e2c10000o
Robust Economy Lifts Naspers by Nick Wilson
491 words
29 November 2006
05:09 PM
All Africa
AFNWS
English
(c) 2006 AllAfrica, All Rights Reserved Johannesburg, Nov 29, 2006 (Business Day/All Africa Global Media via COMTEX) -- MEDIA group Naspers said yesterday that it had continued to "record satisfactory growth", with revenue rising 22% to R9,1bn for the six months to September. The group said core headline earnings, excluding all nonrecurring, nonoperational items, increased 43% to R1,3bn, and trading conditions remained "favourable in most markets" in which the group operated. But Naspers warned that development spending would be accelerated in the second half, affecting earnings and cash flow negatively. The group said rising interest rates might affect consumer spending, and a weaker rand would make its foreign-dominated input costs more expensive. "In our other markets such as China, Brazil, Greece, Nigeria and Angola, macroeconomic conditions seem generally positive in the short term." Naspers owns newspapers and magazines as well as Africa's only pay-television channel. The group owns SA's biggest daily newspaper, the Daily Sun, and operations in Greece, Cyprus, the Netherlands, Thailand, Angola, Nigeria, China and Brazil. Naspers financial director Steve Pacak said the group's "very robust growth in the first six months" was largely a "function of a robust economy". Pacak said the group was just cautioning the market that when interest rates increased, spending patterns were affected. The group said the revenue growth of 22% was derived from an increase of 62000 in pay-television subscribers for the period. It said the "positive trading conditions" experienced by the group were also reflected in advertising revenue, which grew by 21%. Pacak said that a "big chunk" of the subscriber growth was from the South African market. "A big reason for the growth is again the economy and also the growth of the emerging black middle class," he said. Pacak said that of the group's total revenue of R9,1bn for the six months to September, R5,2bn came from its pay-television business. He said that most of the advertising revenue was derived from the group's newspaper and magazine businesses. Pacak said the group invested about R3,7bn over the period. Capital expenditure of R376m was incurred, mostly in its South African print media business. Naspers said it was also "developing a number of businesses organically" and that these were focused on broadband technologies, the internet and mobile television. The group said the development costs were R449m during the period, compared with R211m for the corresponding period last year. "It is anticipated that this development spend will accelerate in the second half of the year, negatively affecting earnings and cash flows." Naspers said significant acquisitions during the period included the CryptoTec conditional access business this April for R252m. The group acquired a 30% interest in Abril SA for R2,6bn in May. Cobus Stofberg, CEO of Naspers' MIH business, will be acting chief executive from April 1 next year while Naspers CE Koos Bekker takes a year's leave. Document AFNWS00020061129e2bt001aa Business Day (South Africa): Robust economy lifts Naspers. Nick Wilson