Huge decline in regional supply causes industiral demand destruction, most industry moves to stranded Natural gas deposits and very little increase in LNG
3.5 Methane gas hydrates
5% of demand
3.6 Coal (conventional)
Production should increase at about 5% per year
WILL INCREASE
Clean coal technologies
Lack of investment and planning means that easily mined open cast coal will need to be replaced with underground mines, cost and difficulty will reduce tonnage
Production to decrease with introduction of clean coal technologies.
3.7 Coal processes total from liquefaction, oxygenated, gasification
Depressed economies and temporary enegry surpluses keep energy prices deflated
3.8 Nuclear fission
Some new stations and old stations continue to be nursed but low energy prices and harsh economic conditions prevent investment in new plant. Industrial capability absent in many countries and not sufficient foreign financial reserves to pay for plant
Technology will allow new plants by 2020 if wanted
Relatively easy technology and will fit in with Countries desires to create jobs and indigenous energy
Real CO2-Free
ground source heat pump should be used widely
Small
Will increase where available (Iceland)
3.14 Tides
Promising energy source
Big schemes unlikely to come to much, besides with declining fishery stocks tidal areas probably more important in terms of eco system
3.15 Traditional Biomass and waste
Some increase in Developed world increased focus on Forestry for land husbandry and rehabilitation
Growth in waste use
3.16 Other biomass Methanol Ethanol
Not a factor
Decrease due to increasing food and water problems
Traffic biofuels, industrial CHP, municipal CHP
3.17 Others?
Many of the items that mankind uses energy to produce now will use natural flows
Appendix 4.4: Respondents Comments to Round 1, Section 4
A grand scheme like Apollo for energy
A successful post-Kyoto international agreement that really reduces GHG emissions to 1970 levels.
CAFE, appliance, and building energy-efficiency standards with teeth.
All vehicle license fees and insurance costs rolled into fuel prices, i.e. these are no longer based on flat fees but prorated on a vehicle/fuel-use bases, which would better demonstrate actual costs to the driver and provide a greater economic incentive to drive less.
A chip in a smart vehicle ID card or keyless entry device provides the fuel pump or the cash register at the gas station with the multiplication factors necessary to calculate the vehicle and owner/insurance-specific total charge.
Heavy-vehicle road taxes (also rolled into fuel price) that cover the true cost of wear and tear of roads caused by these vehicles and which would make rail transport more cost competitive.
Massive increase in government funded energy-efficiency and alternative fuels research.
Here are some: 1) education to raise awareness 2) significant investments in "what if" simulation and visualization software 3) re-adjustment of budgets for related basic scientific research but most of all: the passionate declaration and embrace of a mission to truly care about the future: the NOWafter, not just the HEREafter.
Seawater agriculture along the desert coastlines of the world (begin by planning salt-loving plants on beaches of areas like Somalia) could make biofuels competitive at today's oil prices.
Establish INSOLSAT for the coordinated development of Space Solar Energy systems as INTELSAL helped orbital commutations satellites.
Create a global R&D fund those technologies like carbon sequestration and space solar energy that are not likely to attract venture capital and/or individual government funding, but would be of value to humanity as a whole. –
You ought to include some unexpected breakthroughs; e.g. albedo control and down hole tailored organisms for reducing viscosity of residuals.
Also a political blockbuster like OPEC denominating its oil sales in Euros.
And, an idea of international consort of energy interests informed by federal union, treaty and poll, as: The utility of the union to our (own) political Energy prosperity the insufficiency of the present confederation of Electric product and distributing utility to preserve that union the necessity of a governing personal private and secure energy accounting system, based on an Energy Standard, and a calorie based economy, at least equally energetic with the one existing, developing, and proposed, to the attainment of this object the conformity of the proposed [design constituents] to the true principles of Just Governing Energy System(s) its analogy to our own personal private and secure constituent state
Lastly, the additional security which its adoption will afford to the preservation of that species of governing system, to liberty, and to property -access, to energy system(s)account.
Other comments
The most direct “Ocam’s Razor” approach would be to launch an all-out “Apollo Moon Project” style of program to achieve alternative / renewable resource enabled energy independence within a specific definable timeline, say 10 years, in which specific milestones can be defined as markerpoints within this program lifetime. A major socio-political limitation to “grand scheme” programs is a lack (apparent or real) of specific markerpoints, i.e., initiation, deployment and endpoint strategies which can give clear, understandable, and if necessary, revisable goal thresholds by which the performance metrics of the program can be measured.
That being said, 3 specific points can be made to support the efficacy of such a program:
There is considerable evidence that public acceptance of such a program is very high, both on “conservative” and “liberal” ends of the political spectrum. This is a socio-political climate unique to this current time (among the general public), and has a very high probability of remaining consistent over the next decade, independent of the actual political orientation of the administration which may be in office.
Hybrid economic development models, in which co-investment mechanisms between public institutions, and private ventures, are becoming much more acceptable, and within the scope of longterm feasibility than in previous times. Furthermore, a highly granular, localized approach to developing energy related products and infrastructure is likely to become the norm, as opposed to the exception, in such future endeavors. In short, we are no longer confined to the megascale, monolithic, “one solution fits all” paradigms of a previous era. Specifically, in the context of this type of program, it may well be the absolute requirement that specific fuel and energy solution sets will be tailored to the resource, infrastructure, and “economic patterning” of specific regions which can most readily adapt to, and profit by, the solution sets rendered for and within that region. This type of program can be dramatically catalyzed by aggressive tax credit and investment related incentives.
Even though many of the technologies and development threads to be initiated in such a program (as listed below) date back many years, in some cases back to the mid ‘70’s, it is extremely important and relevant to note that the timelines to critical markerpoints in development and deployment are remarkably different than previous times, i.e., 10 years of development in current time is a much accelerated rate of progression compared to the same length of time from 3 decades ago. This is primarily because of the synergistic interrelationship of various technical and scientific domains, such as materials science, biotechnology, chemistry, solid state physics, computing, systems engineering, and various other related domains which currently converge, in many overlapping examples, into what is now referred to as applied nanotechnology.
It should also be noted that any comprehensive program initiated along these lines, as stated above in item 2, will in many cases benefit from a localized / granular approach to development and deployment. However, even though there will be specific sub-categories and variations linked to specific regions, an overall “umbrella” of technologies can be specified here, many of which can be deployed at an accelerated pace compared to previous times, in part catalyzed by the rapid and ever accelerating pace of applied nanotechnology
Solid state batteries (replacing current lead/acid batteries) – electric and hybrid / electric vehicles
Low cost organic semiconductor solar and thermal voltaic materials – coatings, paints, laminates, tiles
High efficiency LED lighting – home, business, industrial
“Smart” building materials, dynamic and passive (including solar and thermal voltaics) – integrated sensing and monitoring, “energy efficient” design
Solid state hydrogen storage cells – hydrogen powered vehicles, localized power applications
Liquefied coal synthetic fuels – recent developments in catalysis and nanomaterials make this a much more commercially viable option than in previous times
Organically derived hydrogen – hydrogen derived from genetically enhanced micro-organisms, and other organic media
Optimized thin films, membranes, and nanomaterials – low cost fuel cells in vehicles, and many localized power applications
Next generation wind systems, both on and off grid – on the side of energy generation, the efficacy and MTBF (maintenance overhead) of current and emergent wind turbine designs can be greatly enhanced by newly available materials and manufacturing methods; on the energy distribution / storage side, developments in storage media, and transmission lines both can be accelerated in parallel to accommodate
High efficiency / “near” superconductive materials - mission critical / geographically specific transmission lines
Space borne orbiting solar collectors, using a modernized sealed system, high pressure steam turbine to electrical conversion mechanism, beamed to the ground in the form of low density, easily convertible micro-wave energy
The above is only a partial list of the more “obvious” options that are currently available to be embarked upon in such a program.
The most relevant point to note here is that it is the combination of the above mentioned options, along with others mentioned in other documentation, as a mosaic within such a comprehensive program, that will yield the results most needed to obtain the overall goal of energy independence within a foreseeable future timeline.
Another Comment
1 In my opinion, the scenarios have not been designed correctly enough. Scenarios 2 and 3 as most optimal could have been merged and, possibly, enhanced by Scenario 4.
2. It is absolutely not rational to be interested when this or that kind of fuel gets exhausted, No doubt that oil and gas will get exhausted already in this century, the Earth has a finite size and therefore fossil energy resources are finite.
3. If one agrees to the logic of items 1 and 2, then science, government authorities and business should concentrate their efforts on total and urgent search for new energy sources.
For this purpose, the above efforts should be complemented by international efforts, such as those undertaken by the European Union under FP6 and FP7.
To make a roster of all experts who could contribute to that development and search and or to bring new ideas in regard to new kinds of energy or their sources.
To lead inventory of all available operating time in this direction.
To organize Internet-conferences (competitions) among different age groups, starting with schoolchildren.
To introduce in all technical educational institutions an obligatory course in energy and energy efficiency.
Financing - to introduce a new (global) tax to be imposed on both countries and companies, especially those that mine and re-sell fuel energy resources. A tax rate should depend on energy consumption.
Search for new energy sources can be made in boundary areas, such as space energy (planets having a huge weight move at a large velocity using energy yet inaccessible to humankind.
Human energy is insufficiently studied. For example, the encyclopedia of energy efficiency cites a kind of psychic energy that is insufficiently investigated. Take the information spread around the globe about a woman who lifted the wall that fell on her child. After letting the child free ten men could not lift the wall. Such constructions as pyramids in Egypt or New Grange in Ireland were built with the use of energy inaccessible to us today. Kirlian effect should be studied most closely.
International joint scientific energy research should necessarily be coupled with environmental protection and economic studies.
On item 2.32. Organization of inter-confessional fora on struggle against terrorism with participation of leading figures in policy, science, art, religion, business and especially experts in the environment, energy, international relations, and economists.
