Designing a Research Framework

2. Microeconomic Impact of Macroeconomic Policy-A Gender Perspective

Much of traditional macroeconomic analysis focuses on economy-wide aggregates. Understanding the micro-foundations of growth and the microeconomic impacts of macroeconomic policy is an important element in evaluating the economy’s response to reforms. From the point of view of gender analysis, disentangling how the costs of adjustment are distributed between males and females can also be better understood by shifting the focus from macro to micro impacts. Of course, gender inequality predates the introduction of economic reforms, but it has been argued that it has been exacerbated by them (Tsikata and Kerr 2000). Work on the gender dimensions of macroeconomic reform is relatively new, having really just taken off in the early nineties (see Bakker 1994 and Elson 1994).

In the context of the PRSP, tracking what is happening to women and gender relations under a few key reforms would provide useful insights for policymakers. Following an innovative study carried out by the Gender and Economic Reforms in Africa (GERA) Program, suggested areas could include financial sector liberalisation, and broader economic liberalisation and the formal manufacturing and informal sectors.
Gender analysis has also been considered an essential input into the overall monitoring and evaluation process of PRSP (MCDWAC 2001a, 2001b). This calls for mainstreaming gender-disaggregated data into all key instruments, including the household budget survey. Gender issues that may block achievement of poverty reduction targets for each of the key areas, such as education, health, agriculture and the judiciary need to be examined.
The lack of a clear gender perspective in the PRSP is symptomatic of the need to strengthen gender analysis and gender planning within all levels and sectors of government, with particular attention to the Ministry of Finance, the Planning Commission and the Vice-President’s Office. Much progress has already been made, as the Ministry of Finance works closely with MCDWAC and the Tanzania Gender Networking Project to mainstream gender in the PRSP.

• 
  How do existing gender relations act as opportunities or constraints in achieving poverty reduction goals in each of the key sectors? What steps will be necessary to overcome the constraints? (see detailed issues in MCDWAC 2001a)
  

• 
  What are specific training needs for gender analysis and planning within the central and line ministries most concerned with poverty reduction? How can the institutional mechanisms for gender mainstreaming within the government (central, local) be strengthened?
  

• 
  Which policy interventions and strategies would most enhance gender equity in education, health, agriculture and employment in general? How can these be either established, or strengthened? What additional resources will be necessary?
  

The PRSP envisages continued financial sector liberalisation as an important component of stimulating private sector development. Key research questions related to the gender dimensions of changes in financial services and markets could include:

• 
  How is financial sector liberalisation affecting men and women’s access to financial services?
  

• 
  What impact has the increased availability and reliance on informal finance institutions and more formal microfinance institutions had on women?
  

• 
  What are specific obstacles that women and youth face in mobilising resources?
  

• 
  Are there any policies and institutional changes related to the financial sector needed to improve the livelihoods of men and women?
  

• 
  What is the assessment of women’s financial institutions or those that serve mainly women?
  

D. Growth Strategies and Poverty Reduction

Economic growth is the basic source of poverty reduction and an important source of financing for targeted social expenditure. For instance, in Chile during the 1990s, four-fifths of the achieved 50% increase in real per capita social expenditure was accounted for by accelerated growth. In a recent paper by Dollar and Kraay (2000) that uses econometric techniques for a sample of 80 countries over four decades, the authors find that the growth of income of the poor and overall economic growth is one-to-one. Economic growth is necessary but not sufficient, however, to reduce poverty.

Clearly, the pattern of growth (i.e. the source of the growth) can have differential impacts on the poor. The poor can be expected to benefit if the pattern of growth boosts agriculture and promotes domestic demand for low skilled workers. Economic growth in the Asian Newly Industrialising Countries (NICs) was exceptional because of the equitable nature of the growth. Specifically, growth in Hong Kong, Korea and Taiwan was characterised by a rapid rise in rural productivity, which raised agricultural incomes, and productive absorption in the urban sector. These outcomes were the result of inter alia:

1. 
   Rapid growth of labour intensive manufacturing mostly directed to exports;
   
2. 
   Within labour intensive sectors appropriate wages encouraged labour-intensive techniques;
   
3. 
   Adapted and improved foreign equipment and production methods; and
   
4. 
   Improved rural infrastructure and extension services as well as adaptive local research.
   

Most of these underlying conditions do not yet appear to be in place in Tanzania to replicate the East Asian model – growth has been respectable but not rapid, agricultural productivity remains low, marginal productivity in manufacturing has fallen making it difficult to absorb rural in-migrants and small enterprise sectors are weak. All of this will have to change if growth is to be pro-poor.

In general, the elasticity of poverty, as measured by the change in headcount

index with respect to changes in per capita income is estimated to be between –1.5 and –3.5 world-wide. The elasticity of poverty helps determine how pro-poor economic growth is. In Tanzania, the elasticity has been estimated to historically lie between –0.7% and –2.5% (Jones and Mbelle 2000). Meeting the PRSP poverty reduction target given 6% growth will therefore require the elasticity to lie on the higher end – not impossible but challenging.

Assessment of the PRSP assumptions, the feasibility of the PRSP growth targets and their implications for poverty reduction were identified in the Terms of Reference as an important area of work. A recent paper (still in draft form) commissioned by DFID and carried out by the Overseas Development Institute (ODI) covers much of that ground (Hamner et al 2001). With respect to economic growth, Hamner et al begin by noting that the growth and performance of the agricultural and informal sectors are especially important as the majority of the poor earn their living in them. Agricultural reform is thus an important component in any poverty reduction strategy. In their opinion, however, the slow pace of reform in agriculture and in complementary areas (for example, microfinance) make it “unlikely that growth will be pro-poor at least in the short-run”. They also note that economic growth is currently strongest in mining and tourism, both of which have limited direct effects on poverty and which tend to be geographically concentrated.
Gaps in knowledge related to growth strategies revolve around the rural development strategy and modeling (both macroeconomic and CGE) to better understand the Tanzanian economy. Both of these gaps are currently being addressed by ongoing research. Other important areas of research related to economic growth that are important to monitor poverty are presented below.