Draft report of

5.1.6 Current Enrolment Scenario. There are large variations in the estimates of enrolment according to various sources of data, leading to various base level scenarios. At present, the Ministry of Human Resource Development compiles detailed enrolment data, by types of courses, based on data provided by states and councils of education. These are published annually in the Selected Educational Statistics (SES). This is the most comprehensive annual source for data on enrolment in higher education.

5.1.7 The National Sample Survey directly canvasses a schedule on educational participation in decennial rounds (42^nd and 52^nd). The survey also collects detailed participation data in the Employment-Unemployment Rounds (38^th, 43^rd, 50^th, and 55^th). The 60^th Round of the NSS, which is a half year round (January-June 2004) also provides participation data for 2003-04. But the round does not provide detailed break-up by broad discipline and type of education, as is possible with the main rounds. While the NSS provides very rich information on education participation – of the kind not available elsewhere, one problem with the survey is that, since it is a sample-based survey, total (projected) estimates of enrolment from the various rounds for specific year vary, depending on the specific rounds that are used for the projections.

5.1.8 The Population Census provides limited break-up of types of education, but its strength lies in that it is enumeration based. The Census provides data on total enrolment in higher education. For 2001, this figure is available separately for college education and vocational education. The later includes degree, diploma and certificate education which is in the higher education segment , as also vocational/certificate courses. However, the later form a small part of total enrolment in higher education.

5.1.9 A projection of the growth rate of enrolment in the 1991 and 2001 Census provides an estimate of total enrolment in higher education of 2.07 crores or a GER of 15.6 percent. With the proposed 11^th Plan target, the total enrolment is estimated to increase to 2.97 crores ( increase of 90.7 lakhs) and the GER to 20.6 percent in the terminal year of the Eleventh Plan. The Census estimates may be treated as upper bound estimates, covering both the formal and informal, public and private systems, as also recognized diploma and certificate education.


5.1.10 The actual estimated enrolments and GERs for three years (1999-00, 2000-01 and 2003-04) from the SES, NSSO (Rounds 55 and 60) and Census are compared in Tables A1, B1 and C1.