Европейска схема


Table 17. Comparison between the macroeconomic projection and the bottom-up projection for registered installations



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Table 17. Comparison between the macroeconomic projection and the bottom-up projection for registered installations



Year

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

1

Overall allowances for registered installations – macroeconomic projection

49 470 560

50 161 260

52 583 634

58 304 621

60 343 473

59 864 886

 

Overall allowances for registered installations – bottom up projection

50 180 444

54 022 797

55 709 952

61 243 618

64 315 800

63 635 910

2.1

Energy activities, including



















2.1.1

Electric power – macroeconomic projection

22 326 044

21 907 164

23 125 522

26 268 762

28 840 447

27 355 107

 

Electric power – bottom-up projection

19 957 347

23 314 214

24 444 958

28 182 136

31 137 556

31 454 792

2.1.2

Combined production – macroeconomic projection

8 061 028

8 161 776

8 240 503

8 411 681

6 994 499

7 097 189

 

Combined production – bottom-up projection

8 980 512

9 118 680

9 306 839

9 466 113

9 501 113

8 452 229

2.1.3

Heating power – public sector – macroeconomic projection

828 190

871 531

914 871

958 212

1 001 552

1 044 893

 

Heating power – public sector – bottom-up projection

660 188

671 668

686 867

695 115

706 538

717 656

2.1.4

Heating for industrial purposes



















 

Production of chemical products and rubber – macroeconomic projection

324 655

340 368

355 702

370 719

385 469

399 989

 

Production of chemical products and rubber – bottom-up projection

365 140

397 017

397 017

397 017

397 017

397 017

 

Production of foods and beverages – macroeconomic projection

39 739

41 792

43 872

45 801

47 903

49 909

 

Production of foods and beverages – bottom-up projection

73 531

77 529

80 617

88 161

91 385

92 433

 

Production of woods and wood products (except furniture) – macroeconomic projection

92 309

99 905

107 500

115 095

122 691

130 286

 

Production of woods and wood products (except furniture) – bottom-up projection

84 830

85 803

86 777

87 750

88 724

89 697

 

Production of textile and textile products (except for apparel) – macroeconomic projection

23 867

25 483

27 098

28 714

30 330

31 945

 

Production of textile and textile products (except for apparel) – bottom-up projection

27 824

28 837

29 850

30 863

31 876

32 889

 

Production and casting of non-ferrous metals – macroeconomic projection

129 870

132 863

135 629

138 204

140 617

142 888

 

Production and casting of non-ferrous metals – bottom-up projection

187 925

174 098

178 985

184 139

187 363

190 902

 

Production of machines, equipment and household appliances – macroeconomic projection

28 835

29 836

30 773

31 657

32 493

33 289






Year

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

 

Production of machines, equipment and household appliances – bottom-up projection

47 007

94 377

96 613

98 128

99 529

100 958

 

Health protection and social activities – macroeconomic projection

3 765

3 962

4 159

4 356

4 553

4 750

 

Health protection and social activities – bottom-up projection

3 684

4 094

4 094

4 094

4 094

4 094

 

Agriculture and hunting and related to them services – macroeconomic projection

7 185

7 561

7 937

8 313

8 689

9 065

 

Agriculture and hunting and related to them services – bottom-up projection

9 791

10 312

10 599

10 599

10 599

10 599

 

Distribution of natural gas – macroeconomic projection

182 488

182 488

182 488

182 488

182 488

182 488

 

Distribution of natural gas – bottom-up projection

181 094

181 094

181 094

181 094

181 094

181 094

3.

Refineries – macroeconomic projection

6 752 931

7 158 107

7 587 593

8 042 849

8 525 420

9 036 945

 

Refineries – bottom-up projection

7 410 007

7 418 019

7 426 031

7 434 043

7 442 055

7 442 055

4.

Cement– macroeconomic projection

4 236 386

4 559 839

4 980 585

6 721 709

6 919 724

7 117 740

 

Cement – bottom-up projection

4 395 057

4 520 494

4 743 225

6 286 333

6 286 333

6 286 333

5.

Lime – macroeconomic projection

562 869

593 746

615 529

637 312

659 094

680 877

 

Lime – bottom-up projection

554 321

594 884

602 879

619 977

620 365

621 012

6.

Cellulose and paper – macroeconomic projection

375 463

412 976

480 258

509 054

537 076

562 773

 

Cellulose and paper – bottom-up projection

305 711

320 015

363 226

368 699

373 772

376 119

7.

Glass – macroeconomic projection

354 053

357 450

361 257

364 733

367 930

369 065

 

Glass – bottom-up projection

440 180

439 369

439 369

439 369

439 369

440 225

8.

Ceramics – macroeconomic projection

154 328

157 212

160 342

162 805

165 106

167 268

 

Ceramics – bottom-up projection

236 221

240 901

258 695

265 887

269 799

275 603

9.

Ferrous metallurgy – macroeconomic projection

4 986 555

5 117 201

5 222 016

5 302 157

5 377 393

5 448 420

 

Ferrous metallurgy – bottom-up projection

6 260 075

6 331 393

6 372 218

6 404 099

6 447 219

6 470 203


* Note: The two projections for the electric power sector differ considerably because the projection for the installations assumes that the installations will not improve their indicators in the period 2003-2012. The macroeconomic forecast assumes that as a result of the rehabilitation of power capacities, installations’ indicators will improve and specific emissions for the production of kWh electric power will be reduces by some 10 %.
For 2007, the difference between the aggregated projected emissions by installations and by macroeconomic forecast exceeds 10%, therefore it is necessary to apply a compromise projection for the emissions in 2007.

Table 18. Compromise projection for CO2 emissions by sectors for 2007, t (allowances)




Sector/Year

2007

 

Energy activities, including




1.

Electric energy

22 326 044

2.

Combined production

8 061 028

3.

Heating power, public sector

744 189

4.

Heating power for industrial purposes

933 379

5.

Refineries

6 752 931

6.

Cement

4 395 057

7.

Lime

554 321

8.

Cellulose and paper

305 711

9.

Glass

397 116

10.

Ceramics

195 275

11.

Ferrous metallurgy

4 986 555

 

Total

49 651 606



2.2 If the potential, including the technological potential, of activities to reduce emissions was taken into account at this level, please state so here and give details in Section 4.3 below.

The technological potential is not taken into account at this level.

2.3 If Community legislative and policy instruments have been considered in determining separate quantities per activity, please list the instruments considered in Section 5.3 and state which ones have been taken into account and how.

The effects on emissions of carbon dioxide (both in terms of reduction and increase) resulting from the implementation of Directives 2003/96/ЕС, 2002/91/ЕС, 2001/77/ЕС, 96/61/ЕС, 2003/17/ЕС, 2001/80/ЕС, 1999/13/ЕС, have been taken into considerationduring the development of the National Allocation Plan. See also section 5.3.

2.4 If the existence of competition from countries or entities outside the Union has been taken into account, please explain how.

Bulgaria’s NAP does not include special measures to assess the competition from countries outside the European Union. The Plan will be co-ordinated with the Commission for Protection of Competition before it is submitted for approval to the Council of Ministers.

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