4.1Trends in the mining industry
A survey of trends in the global and South African mining industry was carried out to provide a context in which to identify the priorities for future SIMRAC rock-related research work. While a fairly wide range of sources was consulted, an exhaustive review was outside the scope of this study.
4.1.1Global trends 4.1.1.1Information Sources
Insights were derived from:
Publications
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Evolutionary and Revolutionary Technologies for Mining, 2002, National Research Council, USA.
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New Forces at Work in Mining: Industry Views of Critical Technologies, 2001, by D.J. Peterson, T. LaTourette and J.T. Bartis, RAND’s Science and Technology Institute, Arlington, USA.
Participation in International Scientific Meetings
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Second International Seminar on Deep and High Stress Mining, 23-25 February 2004, Johannesburg, South Africa.
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Sixth International Symposium on Rockburst and Seismicity in Mines, 9-11 March 2005, Perth, Australia
International Review Panel
4.1.1.2Economic Trends -
New technologies have brought about tremendous gains in labour productivity over the last few decades. Yet parts of the industry suffer from overproduction, low market prices, and unfavourable profit margins.
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The demand for minerals will continue to increase, with long-term growth driven by an increased demand from the developing world, especially China and India. Commodity prices will continue to be cyclic as a result of the imbalances in demand and supply.
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The consolidation of the global mining industry will continue, with a move away from single commodity to multi-commodity companies. The global mining industry will be dominated by a handful of multinational companies (e.g. Anglo American, BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto).
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Mining will increasingly take place outside Australia, Europe, and North America i.e. Africa, Asia, and South America. Consequently, there are many issues that will have to be addressed, including training, regulation, enforcement, sustainability, and environmental and social impact i.e. the triple bottom line: people, planet and prosperity.
4.1.1.3Technological trends -
Mining research and development effort has generally declined over the past few decades owing to cutbacks in both public and private sector funding.
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When searching for opportunities to innovate, the mining sector has tended to focus on technologies for downstream activities (such as beneficiation, utilisation, reduction in emissions) rather than technologies for upstream activities (such as ore extraction).
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Technology exists to solve many rock-related safety problems encountered in mines in Australia, Europe and North America, although rockbursting remains a cause for concern in countries such as Australia, Canada and Poland, particularly as mining depth increases.
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The main focus areas for technological development are training, discipline, enforcement, cost, efficiency, and continuous improvement. Four areas of technology critical to resolving mine productivity bottlenecks have been identified (Peterson et al., 2001: xiv):
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Information and communication technologies for process automation, e.g. planning and visualisation technologies, GPS-based surveying integrated with high-precision drilling and earthmoving, updating of mine maps in real-time.
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Remote control and automation, e.g. load-haul-dump vehicles, drilling equipment.
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Operation and maintenance. Downtime will be reduced through more robust engineering and materials, on-board monitoring of critical systems, and better off-board diagnostic systems.
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Unit-operations capabilities. No major changes to rock-breaking and ore transportation technologies are anticipated. Advances are likely to be incremental and focus typically on increasing batch size, reducing cycle intervals, and boosting equipment availability.
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There are opportunities for technology crossover from industries such as construction, trucking, manufacturing, and the military.
4.1.1.4Human factors -
As technology progresses and staffing levels decline, the individual operators play a greater role in determining mine output. They need to develop new, multi-disciplinary skills to fully utilise the emerging technologies.
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Mining engineering departments in Australia, Europe and North America are contracting, while the number of mining engineering students in South Africa is growing.
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The mining workforce is aging.
4.1.1.5Future prospects for rock-related research
Rock engineering is a discipline with many existing and emerging applications (e.g. civil infrastructure, nuclear waste disposal, geothermal energy, enhancement of hydrocarbon recovery through steam injection, carbon-dioxide sequestration, coal seam gasification, etc). New technology is required to mine deep tabular ore bodies e.g. Idaho silver mining district, Kiruna iron ore deposits. Economic and social imperatives exist for maintaining high-level skills in the discipline.
4.1.2South African trends 4.1.2.1Information Sources
Insights were derived from:
SIMRAC Workshops and Documents
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Roadmap for Rockfalls, Johannesburg, 16 April 2004.
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Roadmap for Rockbursts, Western Deep Levels, 12 August 2004.
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Strategic Plan for SIMRAC for the Period April 2003 to March 2008.
CSIR Division of Mining Technology Internal Workshops and Reports
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A Vision of Rock Engineering Research for the Mining Industry, report by D.F. Malan and J.A.L. Napier, dated 28 January 2004.
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Matching Skills and Competence to the Greater Mining Industry, workshop held on 4 August 2004.
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The Future of PlatMine, workshop held on 14 January 2005.
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CSIR Mining Technology Business Plan 2005/6.
Publications
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A Perspective on the South African Mining Industry in the 21st Century, by S Malherbe, August 2000. An independent report prepared for the Chamber of Mines of South Africa by the Graduate School of Business of the University of Cape Town in association with Genesis Analytics.
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Broad-based Socio-economic Empowerment Charter for the South African Mining Industry (the “Mining Charter”), 2002, Department of Minerals and Energy, Government of South Africa.
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Dawn of the African Century: National Research and Technology Foresight Project, 1999, Department of Arts, Culture, Science and Technology, Government of South Africa.
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South Africa’s Mineral Industry 2003/4, Department of Minerals and Energy, Government of South Africa.
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South Africa’s National Research and Development Strategy, 2002, Department of Science and Technology, Government of South Africa.
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Rock Engineering Challenges, A. H. Swart, J. L. Human and F. Harvey, Journal of the South African Institute of Mining and Metallurgy, vol .105, pp. 103-106, February 2005.
Interviews
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SIMRAC stakeholders (see Appendix D).
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Roger Baxter, chief economist, Chamber of Mines of South Africa, 21 September 2004.
Participation in Scientific Meetings
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SANIRE Symposium 2004: a Miner’s Guide Through the Earth’s Crust, 16 September 2004, Potchefstroom, South Africa.
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SAIMM Colloquium: Design, Development and Operation of Rockpasses, 16-17 November 2004, Johannesburg, South Africa.
4.1.2.2Economic and political trends -
The decline in gold production has masked significant growth in other mining sectors. Measured in terms of production, three sectors (coal, platinum group metals and chrome) have doubled in size since 1980, while iron ore production has increased by more than half (Malherbe, 2000:10).
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The output of the gold mining sector will continue to decline as ore bodies are mined out.
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The platinum mining sector will continue to expand.
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Production from the Witbank-Highveld coalfield will decline until it is mined out ca. 2020. An increasing proportion of production will be derived from pillar extraction. New coalfields will be opened up e.g. the Waterberg coal field.
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The medium- to long-term competitiveness of the mining industry will only be maintained through the mechanisation of underground mining operations (with a significant improvement in the health and safety of the workforce).
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The Minerals and Petroleum Resources Development Act (Act No. 28 of 2002) and the Mining Charter (November 2002) have changed the mining landscape, promoting access to the industry to people and communities previously denied the opportunity, and emphasising the responsibility mining companies have towards the communities in which they operate.
4.1.2.3Technological challenges and trends -
Gold mining conditions will grow more difficult, as increasing proportions of mining will be of remnants or at deep levels. Gold mines are labour intensive and likely to remain so, as thin tabular reefs are not amenable to mechanisation. This does not imply that the sector is averse to mechanisation: massive mining techniques are being used to extract the stacked reefs on the Target and South Deep mines.
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Platinum mines will experience new rock engineering and cooling challenges as mines extend to greater depths and as layouts are adapted to facilitate mechanisation.
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Coalmines in the Witbank-Highveld coalfield will have to deal with the challenges of pillar and multi-seam extraction. New coalfields such as the Waterberg will be developed, presenting new challenges, e.g. very thick seams, and intercalated sandstone and shale lenses.
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In terms of the Mining Charter, the South African government seeks to encourage the entry of black-owned companies and promote small-scale mining. However, small, single mine operations tend to be two to four times less safe than the large operations (COL 034). This should be taken into account in the focus of mining research and knowledge and technology transfer.
4.1.2.4Human factor -
Mining can play an important role in reducing poverty. The mining industry is a conduit of money and opportunity to some of the poorest areas in South Africa. Labour is the most important beneficiary of gold mining activity, capturing 62 per cent of all value generated, overshadowing the portion of value captured by shareholders (14 per cent), capital expenditure (15 per cent), and by direct government taxation (7 per cent). Conversely, it means that labour suffers the most heavily from the shutting down of capacity (Malherbe, 2000:12).
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The mining industry is facing a skills crisis. The workforce is aging and skilled practitioners and researchers are in short supply.
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