Gonzaga Debate Institute 2010

Credibility Adv. – China Module – Collapses CCP

Civil unrest will cause the collapse of the CCP
Pan 4 (Philip, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A23519-2004Nov3.html , date accessed: 6/27/2010) AJK
As police battled to suppress deadly ethnic clashes last week in central China, tens of thousands of rice farmers fighting a dam project staged a huge protest in the western part of the country. The same day, authorities crushed a strike involving 7,000 textile workers. A week earlier, a large crowd of retirees demanding pension payments blocked traffic for days in a city in the east; nearly a thousand workers demonstrated outside a newly privatized department store in the northeast; and police used rubber bullets and tear gas to quell a giant mob of anti-government rioters in a western city. The string of disturbances, described by local journalists, witnesses and participants, highlights the daily challenge that civil unrest now poses to the ruling Communist Party. Despite historic economic growth that has lifted millions out of poverty, protests and riots in the world's most populous country are occurring with increasing frequency, growing in size and ending more often in violence. This expansion of social strife has yet to shake the party's authoritarian grip on power. But the trend, evident in the government's own police statistics, has prompted alarm at the highest levels of the Chinese leadership, which has repeatedly declared social stability its top priority. The Communist Party has indicated it is worried that these outbursts of discontent might coalesce into large-scale, organized opposition to its rule. The concern was apparent in a report by its Central Committee in September urging officials to improve governance and warning that "the life and death of the party" was at stake. "The Soviet Union used to be the world's number one socialist country, but overnight the country broke up and political power collapsed," Vice President Zeng Qinghong wrote last month in the People's Daily, the party's flagship newspaper. "One important reason was that in their long time in power, their system of governing became rigid, their ability to govern declined, people were dissatisfied with what the officials accomplished, and the officials became seriously isolated from the masses." There were more than 58,000 major incidents of social unrest in the country last year, about 160 per day on average, according to the party magazine Outlook. That was an increase of 15 percent over 2002 and nearly seven times the figure reported by the government just a decade ago. Another study of police statistics, by Murray Scot Tanner, a scholar at the U.S.-based Rand Corp., concluded the demonstrations were growing in size while violence, including attacks on party and state officials, was also on the rise. "Research institutes like our center are working on this issue day and night, and so is the government," said He Zengke, executive director of the China Center for Comparative Politics and Economics in Beijing. "We all know the importance and urgency of the problem." The incidents that erupted over the past two weeks illustrate the wide variety of factors behind this wave of unrest: tensions between the Han ethnic majority and ethnic and religious minorities such as the Muslim Hui; a widening wealth gap and persistent government corruption; the seizure of farmland for development; and layoffs associated with the transition from socialism to capitalism. The party once blamed domestic unrest on subversives and foreign agents, but it now acknowledges that many taking part in these protests have legitimate grievances. Officials also recognize that protests are inevitable in a rapidly changing country and can serve as a safety valve for pent-up public anger.

Even a small incident of civil unrest can unravel the CCP

Shuli 9 (Hu, http://english.caijing.com.cn/2009-07-07/110194415.html , date accessed: 6/27/2010) AJK

Yet the experiences should provide lessons. The dark cloud of economic crisis still looms, and the 60th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China is upon us. For the sake of establishing rule of law and a harmonious society while modernizing China, we need to alleviate social discontent and reduce the frequency and seriousness of conflicts. It is high time to face reality and thoroughly review these incidents, with the goal of understanding why they occur. Although the origins and timing of recent mass incidents vary, they share common threads. The cause is often an isolated event, sometimes a police or criminal case. But because inept officials disregard the basic rights of individuals concerned, and stir public anger that boils over, the friction escalates. Once a conflict erupts, lives become entwined in legal affairs. That's when a local government is prone to mishandle an incident, abuse police power and bar information access. Invariably, the mishandled effort backfires, and a government loses credibility in the process. Even though calm eventually may be restored, the methods used in handling incidents and their durations can exact high societal and political costs. Ultimately, these incidents test the capabilities and sincerity of leaders whose job is to serve the people. They also leave a lasting imprint on a government's credibility.

Credibility Adv. – China Module – Collapses China

China won’t go peacefully: it’ll chaotically split into a bunch of smaller nations

Heilbrunn 1 (Jacob, http://www.thefreelibrary.com/THE+COMING+COLLAPSE+OF+CHINA-a076751689 , date accessed: 6/27/2010) AJK
Who has it right? Is China, as the hawks would have it, a new Wilhelmine Germany, clamoring for its place in the sun? Or is it, as the business lobby promises, a formerly totalitarian country seduced into democratic ways by the lure of the market? In The Coming Collapse of China, Gordon G. Chang says that both sides have it wrong. China, he declares, is headed for the scrapheap of history. It's certainly a case worth considering. One empire after another collapsed in the past century. Why should China, an old-fashioned empire made up of hundreds of different ethnic groupings, be any different? Chang, a lawyer who worked for two decades in China, has written an impassioned book that rests on penetrating diagnoses and old-fashioned gumshoe reporting, conducting interviews with everyone from the high-and-mighty to the common peasant. His aim is to present an unvarnished portrait of China, free of the romanticism of the business lobby and the alarmism a·larm·ist   n. A person who needlessly alarms or attempts to alarm others, as by inventing or spreading false or exaggerated rumors of impending danger or catastrophe.  of the new cold warriors. Chang focuses on the Communist Party Communist party, in China Communist party, in China, ruling party of the world's most populous nation since 1949 and most important Communist party in the world since the disintegration of the USSR in 1991. , arguing that its failure to adapt to new economic and political challenges has made it as vulnerable to upheaval as previous Chinese imperial dynasties. He ascribes much importance to the emergence of the Falun Gong Falun Gong  or Falun Dafa Controversial spiritual movement combining healthful exercises with meditation for the purpose of “moving to higher levels.” Its teachings draw from Buddhism, Confucianism, Daoism, and the Western New Age movement.  and contrasts it with the moral emptiness of the Communists. The best that Fu Qing-yuan, director of the Research Institute of Marxism-Leninism Institute of Marxism-Leninism was an association formed amongst radical elements within the Communist Party of India in West Bengal. It was founded on April 22, 1964. Leading figures were Sushital Roy Chowdhury, Asit Sen and Saroj Dutta (who joined the Institute at a later stage). , can tell him is that "Many people in China are facing a crisis of faith. But I still believe that the majority of the Chinese people The following is a '''list of famous Chinese-speaking/writing people. Note in Chinese names, the family name is typically placed first (for example, the family name of "Xu Feng" is "Xu").  believe in dialectical materialism dialectical materialism, official philosophy of Communism, based on the writings of Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels, as elaborated by G. V. Plekhanov, V. I. Lenin, and Joseph Stalin. " Chang notes that China is a hotbed hotbed, low, glass-covered frame structure for starting tender plants. It differs from a cold frame only in that the soil is heated—either artificially as by underground electric wiring or steampipes, or naturally with partially fermented stable manure, which  of religious growth. One sign of religious fervor has come in the mushrooming of so-called "house churches." These Christian evangelical churches are independent of the government and meet secretly. They have been the target of much persecution. Then there is the well-known Falun Gong, which first rang alarm bells among the Communist leadership when it became clear that the movement had numerous adherents among party cadres. As Chang puts it, "Guess which religion is more popular: the one that promises a life after this one or the one that decrees that there is none?" Chang goes on to remark that while Falun Gong is just a large sect, "tomorrow anything can happen. The Falun Gong episode highlights yet again the weakening grip of the apparently mighty Communist Party." This is too vague. "Anything can happen" is a meaningless phrase. What's more, the collapse of the party need not entail the disappearance of China. Chang believes that China will go the way of the Soviet Union, splitting into various states. Unfortunately, Chang does not provide particulars about how he envisions the breakup. Had he discussed the ethnic and geographic fault lines that he believes run through China, his argument would have been greatly strengthened. He seems to believe that the difficulties that the regime faces--unemployment, religious tensions, loss of faith in communism--will inevitably lead to collapse. He points to Tibet as an example of a native population that has resisted Chinese rule, but does not go beyond what is commonly known about the dreadful Chinese occupation of that country. Nor is there much reason to believe that an uprising is imminent in Tibet. Chang also cites the Falun Gong as a harbinger of potential revolt. But he skips too easily from religious to ethnic tensions. After discussing the Falun Gong, he moves to Central Asia, where Uighurs are revolting against Chinese rule. But there is a fundamental difference between religious and ethnic tensions: Religious claims are transcendent ones, whereas ethnic tensions almost invariably  rest on the claim of racial exclusivity.
CCP collapse means China becomes a failed state

Shorrock (Tim, http://www.ipsnewsasia.net/bridgesfromasia/node/26, date accessed: 6/27/2010) AJK

Pei argued that, while democratic pluralism is the preferred route to stability, there are dangers ahead as China approaches the transition from authoritarian to democratic rule. "The transition itself is fraught with upheaval," he said. "The current regime is poorly equipped to deal with a democratic transition. It hasn't really faced up to its misdeeds and atrocities over the past 50 years." As a result, Chinese-style 'glasnost' "is likely to unleash a flood of recrimination and anger" that would be "destabilising rather than enhancing stability". Part of the problem, he suggested, is that the Communist Party is in complete control of the Chinese state. "If the party were to collapse, there is a failed state, or there is no state." Pei cast doubt on whether overseas Chinese dissidents have the political capability to become a force in a post-communist China. Because dissidents are uprooted from their mother country, he said, their "voices are muted" and their ability to sustain themselves as a political force are limited. At the same time, within the United States dissidents are divided into factions that rarely compromise, further limiting their political effectiveness. "When a regime changes, they'd have to compete with other groups for power," he said of the overseas groups. When that happened in the wake of the collapse of the Soviet Union, he noted, the "Soviet exiles returned but quickly disappeared".