Growing the economy



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The focus of this presentation is on the monitoring and evaluation of the Medium Term Strategic Framework (MTSF) as government’s first five year implementation plan of the NDP, covering the financial years 2014/15 to 2018/2019

  • The focus of this presentation is on the monitoring and evaluation of the Medium Term Strategic Framework (MTSF) as government’s first five year implementation plan of the NDP, covering the financial years 2014/15 to 2018/2019

  • The presentation is informed by the radical socio-economic transformation agenda. It is organised according to the following themes:

    • growing the economy;
    • strengthening society;
    • building a service oriented public service
  • Outcomes are organised to fit into the 3 afore-mentioned themes

  • Using the performance rating system, the presentation highlights progress in key targets, key challenges and what is being done to address these challenges. Where appropriate, links are drawn to the Nine Point Plan



14 outcomes in the PoA aligned with the National Development Plan:

  • 14 outcomes in the PoA aligned with the National Development Plan:



The MTSF outcomes seek to address the triple challenges of unemployment, inequality and poverty espoused in the National Development Plan

  • The MTSF outcomes seek to address the triple challenges of unemployment, inequality and poverty espoused in the National Development Plan

  • The MTSF progress report draws on the Programme of Action (POA) reports presented by the outcome coordinating Ministers to the Cabinet Committees during the financial year

    • The report does not cover every target in the MTSF – for each outcome the report covers a selection of targets, strategic issues requiring change and provides pointers to critical future focal areas
    • By focusing on a limited set of key indicators, the methodology enables evidence-based assessment of progress against the NDP
    • The methodology helps us to focus on outcomes and impacts rather than just activities


Refinement of some indicators in MTSF chapters for alignment with SONA, the Nine Point Plan, and other recent developments

  • Refinement of some indicators in MTSF chapters for alignment with SONA, the Nine Point Plan, and other recent developments

  • Proposed refinement timely as mid-2015 represents the end of the first year of the fifth Administration

  • Using the NDP as the blueprint, DPME and STATSSA are working with departments to ensure that indicators are refined so they are always measurable, accurate, reliable and time-bound.

  • Areas of under-targeting and over-targeting are being looked into and addressed, and consensus is sought across all contributing governments and spheres. The quality of the data used in the Nine Point Plan will also form part of this ongoing process to ensure credibility.









Global growth remains weak, affecting South Africa’s major trading partners

  • Global growth remains weak, affecting South Africa’s major trading partners

  • Slow global economic recovery continues to negatively affect our export markets and continues to impact on new investments

  • Global capital flows are likely to shift towards the US (away from developing countries), as the US recovers and interest rates rise

  • Growth in Africa remains strong for now, but lower commodity prices and higher interest rates are a major risk







Analysis

  • Analysis

  • The ongoing weak global economic environment continues to have an impact on economic growth and constrains to historic export markets

  • Government capacity to identify levers to drive growth is not optimal

  • Relations with business are improving, but need to be more strategic

  • What is to be done:

  • The focus on the Nine Priority Areas is gaining traction:

    • Unlocking increased private sector investment will require using the infrastructure programme to crowd in the private sector investment, improving regulatory efficiencies at all levels of government
    • Expand exports especially outside of Europe and China (and focus especially on Africa) by using new opportunities
    • Focus on trade promotion measures combined with more efficient regulation and possibly export-import financing, in Africa


Analysis

  • Analysis

  • Small business is not meeting potential contribution to growth and employment creation

  • Interventions will be required to support existing and develop new small business and cooperatives to facilitate access to formal markets

  • Revise and develop supporting regulation to unlock SMME potential

  • What is to be done

  • Regulations on targeted procurement to support SMMEs and co-ops must be gazetted

  • Resolve challenges related to the 30% set aside target for public sector procurement from SMMEs and co-operative and ensure the September 2015 target is met

  • Resuscitate and develop township and rural economies

  • Work with key metros to support reducing rep tape for small business







The plan will cover all parts of the water value chain from resources development (management of river system, catchment areas, building of dams), bulk regional infrastructure (water treatment plants, reservoirs) and reticulation schemes.

  • The plan will cover all parts of the water value chain from resources development (management of river system, catchment areas, building of dams), bulk regional infrastructure (water treatment plants, reservoirs) and reticulation schemes.

  • Team is currently undertaking an assessment of the true extent of the water challenge - water resources availability, water losses, water demand, quality, climate change, pollution

  • Undertaking an overview of water requirements per sector

  • Assess infrastructure functionality and investment at all levels

  • Policy and regulatory framework

  • Human capital and institutional capacity









A drop in vulnerability to hunger and access to food in 2014 from 2010, but largely due to social grant rather than food production initiatives

  • A drop in vulnerability to hunger and access to food in 2014 from 2010, but largely due to social grant rather than food production initiatives

  • Efforts to improve food security need to be intensified and accelerated. The development of an integrated plan to food security and nutrition, is likely to improve performance.



















Improving Quality of Care

  • Improving Quality of Care

  • The Office of Health Standards Compliance (OHSC) continuously assesses the quality of health service delivery and entrenches a culture of quality health services

  • Patient satisfaction surveys conducted in 49% of public sector facilities found that 76% of users of public health services were satisfied with service provided

  • Re-engineering of Primary Health Care

  • Significant progress made includes improved access to Primary Health Care (PHC) for communities, with 1748 Ward Based PHC Outreach Teams being functional, which exceeded annual target of 1500

  • District Clinical Specialist Teams with at least three specialists were established across districts nationally



HIV & AIDS and Tuberculosis prevented & managed

  • HIV & AIDS and Tuberculosis prevented & managed

  • 9.5 million HIV tests conducted, against 2014/15 target of 10 million

  • Access to ART for people living with HIV and AIDS expanded with 3.1 million people placed on ART, exceeding 2014/15 target of 3 million

  • Screening for Tuberculosis (TB) has been expanded, with 15.2 million people reached, which exceeded the target of 6 million

  • The new pulmonary TB defaulter rate and the TB death rate have both declined and remained consistent with the set targets for 2014/15

  • Improving Maternal and Child Health

  • Efforts to prevent mother-to-child transmission of HIV continued to yield the desired results, with only 1.5% of babies testing HIV positive at 6-weeks. This exceeded the set target of 2%

  • Full immunisation coverage rate (90%) for the under 1-year of age was achieved, which was consistent with the set target of 90%





Universal Health Coverage achieved through implementation of NHI

  • Universal Health Coverage achieved through implementation of NHI

  • Finalisation of the White Paper on National Health Insurance (NHI) has lagged behind, and has impacted on the production of the NHI Bill, which was targeted to be released for public consultation in 2014/15

  • The health sector has continued to provide technical support visits to the 10 NHI pilot districts across provinces, which is commendable. The MTSF 2014–2019 target, however, was to review the pilot sites and progressively expand to other districts-based on the results of the review.

  • Prevention and Management of Non-communicable Diseases

  • Although the health sector has produced the National Strategic Plan for Non-Communicable Diseases (NCDs) for 2013-2017, the counselling and screening users of public health services for key NCDs has significantly lagged behind the set targets for 2014/15. Screening awareness raising requires strengthening. The creation of the National Health Commission to ensure inter-sectoral action to address the social determinants of health also requires acceleration



National Treasury and National DoH to finalise the NHI policy and legislative frameworks, as well as the funding modality

  • National Treasury and National DoH to finalise the NHI policy and legislative frameworks, as well as the funding modality

  • Finalise the review of the NHI pilot sites to identify key milestones attained, constraints encountered and inform expansion of sites

  • Managers in the health sector should continuously carry out internal monitoring of the quality of service delivery, and use this monitoring to inform service delivery

  • Strengthen the screening of NCD interventions among users of public health services and raise awareness amongst communities at large

  • Operationalise the National Health Commission to ensure inter-sectoral action to address the social determinants of health

  • Identify and implement intersectoral interventions with other sectors to address the matter of severe acute malnutrition among children

  • Implement effective measures to turn around the financial audit outcomes

  • Finalise the review of the NHI pilot sites to identify key milestones attained, constraints encountered and inform expansion of sites

  • Fast-track the implementation of Operation Phakisa in health























Analysis

  • Analysis

  • The pace of delivery is not satisfactory to meet the 2019 target

  • The “HHs connected to grid” target could be met if number of connections scale up to 280 000 per annum.

  • The absence of a credible project management and delivery planning approach is the major reason for the lacklustre performance

  • What is to be done

  • Improving delivery performance will require a project management approach to tackling the planning and institutional constraints experienced. In this regard a business strategy was developed and approved by Cabinet to tackle the obstacles and strengthen coordination.

  • The initiative will be coordinated by MISA and will comprise the key sector departments, NT & DPME. The objective of this joint operation would be to fast track the planning and implementation of projects & operations & maintenance requirements in the priority districts.



Analysis

  • Analysis

  • In the past year municipalities have been supported to develop post audit action plans and ensure they are tabled to Councils

  • 271 municipalities assessed for adequacy in addressing the issues raised by AG

  • Debt owed by municipalities is being responded to but debt owed to municipalities to not given sufficient attention

  • Debt owed to municipalities is close to R100 billion (almost double the amount since 2009)

  • What is to be done

  • The support work has been extensively initiated in the current period and the impact on audit outcomes will only be known when the 2014-15 audit results are released around June 2016.

  • The extent of irregular expenditure is a concern particularly in respect of those municipalities where contracts have been awarded to friends and families. This goes beyond just an audit issue and borders on corruption and nepotism. Serious cases should be investigated by DCoG and NT and the Cabinet be advised of appropriate interventions

  • A clear policy response is needed to address the low payment levels and how to deal with the accumulated debt much of which is considered to be unrecoverable





During January 2015, the Rand value of invoices paid after 30 days from the date of its receipt amounts to R 382 million whilst the amount for February 2015 amounts to R 378 million, thereby representing a marginal improvement of 1.0% amounting to R 4 million.

  • During January 2015, the Rand value of invoices paid after 30 days from the date of its receipt amounts to R 382 million whilst the amount for February 2015 amounts to R 378 million, thereby representing a marginal improvement of 1.0% amounting to R 4 million.

  • When comparing the amount paid after 30 days in February 2014 (R327 million) with that of the amount paid in in February 2015 (R378 million), it is evident that there has been a regression of 15.6% regression amounting to R 51 million.

  • For the period January 2014 to February 2014, the average Rand value of invoices paid after 30 days from the date of its receipt amounts to R441 million whilst the average for the period January 2015 to February 2015 amounts to a R380 million, representing a 13.8% improvement amounting R61 million.

  • The average for the period January 2014 to February 2014 is distorted due to the high Rand value of invoices that were paid after 30 days in January 2014 amounting to R554 million.



Analysis

  • Analysis

  • A key challenge to building effective institutions is to ensure stable leadership. Data available indicates that on average HoDs stay in a post for only 2.7 years.

  • In addition to the high turnover, that often accelerates after the appointment of new Executive Authorities, the MPAT 2014 data show that 64% of departments either do not have performance agreements in place or it was submitted after the due date and assessments were not done

  • What is to be done …some progress

  • Special Unit has been established in DPME to investigate cases where there is late or non-payment of correct invoices within 30 days

  • To address the still lengthy delays in resolving disciplinary cases:

    • All departments must capture management of disciplinary cases on PERSAL
  • Outstanding Performance Agreements must be submitted urgently and backlog assessments must be finalised by EAs and HODs before December 2015

  • DG in the presidency has established a team (including DPSA and DPME) to manage the political-administrative interface and career incidents





We need to know where we want to go:

  • We need to know where we want to go:

    • NDP, MTSF, outcomes
  • We need to focus on outcomes we want to achieve, not just the activities we do (outcome or results focus) – and then plan how we will get there

    • Outcome delivery agreements, programme planning
  • We have to monitor whether we are getting there (MPAT, FSD, outcomes)

  • And we have to evaluate if we are getting to where we want to get to, what impact we are having, are we being effective, efficient, delivering value for money etc



Different parts of government use different data sets and different assumptions in their plans

  • Different parts of government use different data sets and different assumptions in their plans

  • This results in plans that over- or understate what the proposed actions can achieve and public announcements are made based on untested assumptions

  • Statistics South Africa and DPME are working on a process to improve data quality, including:

    • Updating the social accounting matrix using Census 2011 data
    • Developing a growth accounting framework
  • Both outputs will inform the modelling of the socio-economic impact of policies leading to better policy decisions including the monitoring of the 9 point plant











Focus on strategic priorities (outcomes) through 3 year National and Provincial Evaluation plans developed by DPME with partners.

  • Focus on strategic priorities (outcomes) through 3 year National and Provincial Evaluation plans developed by DPME with partners.

  • Range of types of evaluation diagnostic, design, implementation, impact, economic

  • 38 evaluations completed, underway or being scoped

  • Evaluation and Research Unit in DPME to drive the system (currently 15 staff)

  • Guidelines, standards, competences, developing training courses, emphasising use

  • Cross-gov Evaluation Technical Working Group to support the system

  • Departments budgeting for evaluation, part-funded by DPME

  • Building demand – emphasising learning, reports to Cabinet, working with Parliament, publicising reports

  • Evaluation Repository – 101 evaluations





Key targets in MTSF have been written into performance agreements for 2014-2019 that the President has signed with all Ministers

  • Key targets in MTSF have been written into performance agreements for 2014-2019 that the President has signed with all Ministers

  • DPME checking the strategic plans and annual performance plans of national and provincial departments to ensure that they reflect key targets and actions in MTSF. These key targets and actions should be reflected in the performance agreements of HoDs and senior officials. Management Performance Assessments are undertaken across three spheres of govt.

  • Implementation Forums and Quarterly POA reporting to Cabinet by Coordinating Ministers for the outcomes

  • Performance Dialogues and Expenditure Reviews held jointly by DPME and National Treasury to ensure alignment between planning, budgeting, monitoring and evaluation

  • Ongoing Frontline Service Delivery Monitoring, Presidential Hotline and Citizen Based Monitoring to ensure that citizens are heard







Much more work to ensure we plan effectively and get a good picture of performance - improving data, improving analysis, integrating tools to give 360 degree view of performance

  • Much more work to ensure we plan effectively and get a good picture of performance - improving data, improving analysis, integrating tools to give 360 degree view of performance

  • The DPME tools provide invaluable resources for Portfolio Committees in understanding how government investment is working, what impact it is having, and how it can be strengthened

  • Also need better joined up working with NT and DPSA eg around performance dialogue, as well as linkage between SCOA and Portfolio Committees on value for money

  • How can we assist you to improve oversight and decision-making?



  • Tsakani Ngomane, PhD

  • Acting DDG: Outcomes Monitoring and Evaluations

  • Outcome 7 Facilitator: Rural Development

  • tsakani@presidency-dpme.gov.za

  • www.thepresidency-dpme.gov.za




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