Peter Lukey’s contribution to the Academy of Science of South Africa (assaf) Low Carbon Cities (lcc) Report

2.4Energy – arguably the most significant national issue impacting on the local context

In terms of the National Environmental Management: Air Quality Act (Act No. 39 of 2004), a Greenhouse Gas (GHG) means gaseous constituents of the atmosphere, both natural and anthropogenic, that absorb and re-emit infrared radiation, and includes carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane (CH₄) and nitrous oxide (N₂O). The GHGs contributing to South Africa’s GHG profile are mostly CO₂, (~80%), CH₄ (~15%) and N₂O (~5%).

As illustrated in Figure 5, the main sources of South Africa’s GHGs are: energy-related emissions (~80%); emissions from industrial processes and product use (~15%); emissions from agriculture, forestry and land use (~6%); and emissions from waste and other sources of emissions (~2%).

The main sources of South Africa’s energy-related GHG emissions are: emissions from energy industries, e.g. the burning of coal to make electricity (~62%, ~48% of total); fugitive emissions from fossil fuels, e.g. CH₄ released during coal mining (~12%, ~9% of total ); emissions from transport, e.g. the use of petrol or diesel in cars and trucks (~11%, ~9% of total); emissions from energy production in the manufacturing and construction industries, e.g. coal-fired industrial boilers (~11%, ~9% of total); and other energy-related emissions, including commercial/institutional, residential, agriculture, forestry, fishing and others (~4%, ~3% of total).

Figure 5: The South African greenhouse gas emission profile, base year 2000 (Department of Environmental Affairs, 2009)

In 1950, South Africa was emitting around 60 million tons (Mt) of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO_2-eq) GHGs into the atmosphere per year (Mt/annum) – about 90% of Sub-Saharan Africa’s total emissions and about the same as what India was emitting each year (Letete, T., Guma, M. & Marquard, A. 2010). However, by 1990, South Africa was emitting 347 Mt CO_2-eq/annum – about 70% of Sub-Saharan Africa’s total emissions and about 33% of what India was emitting each year (Letete, et.al., 2010).

In 1995, South Africa was emitting less than 1% of global GHG emissions, as compared to, say, the USA’s 15%, Brazil’s 6%, EU’s 14%, China’s 12% and India’s 5% (Letete, et.al., 2010). However, in terms of global cumulative GHG emissions from 1950 to 2000, South Africa is ranked as the 21^st highest emitter (ranked 63 when measuring Mt CO_2-eq/capita) (Letete, et.al., 2010) and, in terms of global cumulative energy-related GHG emissions from 1950 to 2000, South Africa is ranked as the 14^th highest energy-related emitter (ranked 46 when measuring Mt CO_2-eq/capita) (Letete, et.al., 2010).

In terms of global cumulative energy-related GHG emissions from 1950 to 2000, South Africa’s Mt CO_2-eq/capita emissions are: 74% higher than the global average; 344% higher than China; 471% higher than Brazil; 900% higher than the average for Sub-Saharan Africa; 33% lower than the EU; and 70% lower than the USA (Letete, et.al., 2010).

In 2000, South Africa was ranked as the 21^st highest emitter (ranked 63 when measuring Mt CO_2-eq/capita) and as the 14^th highest energy-related emitter (ranked 39 when measuring Mt CO_2-eq/capita) (Letete, et.al., 2010). In 2000, South Africa’s energy-related Mt CO_2-eq/GDPppp (2000 US$) were: 54% higher than the global average; 21% higher than China; 41% higher than the USA; 97% higher than India, 212% higher than Brazil; and 1575% higher than the average for Sub-Saharan Africa (Letete, et.al., 2010).

What this means is that, whichever way you look at it, South Africa’s almost total reliance on fossil fuels makes it one of the top ranking global climate changers.

Importantly, the GHG emission profile of South African cities is likely to be very similar to the national profile.

What this then means for Low Carbon Cities, is that city mitigation efforts will have to consider, at least, the various mitigation interventions investigated in the LTMS as illustrated in Figure 6.

Figure 6: The LTMS mitigation "wedges" (Note: The large wedges at left are on a scale up to 300 Mt CO_2-eq; the middle wedges up to 50 Mt and the small wedges at right up to 10 Mt.)

However, from this it should be clear that, unless cities actively engage in the energy supply side, their efforts are likely to be largely limited to the “small” and “medium wedges”.

To further emphasise this point, Table 1 and Figure 7 summarise the results of an, as yet, unpublished exercise, based on the LTMS, showing how a combination of various mitigation interventions (so-called NAMAs) may contribute to meeting South Africa’s Copenhagen Accord undertaking of “…a deviation below the current emissions baseline of around 34% by 2020 and by around 42% by 2025”.

From this it appears clear that between 20 to 30% of the reductions are due to “lower CO₂ electricity supply” – something cities have little control over unless, as in the past, municipalities actively involve themselves in electricity supply.

Table 1: Unpacking the Copenhagen mitigation undertakings - Deviation below Business-as-Usual (BAU) from contributions by various nationally appropriate mitigation actions

Mitigation Intervention – National Appropriate Mitigation Action (NAMA)	BAU: Projected emissions		Deviation:		Percentage deviation below BAU		Percentage of total reduction
	Mt CO2-eq		Mt CO2-eq		%		%
	2020	2025	2020	2025	2020	2025	2020	2025
ENERGY	482	563	124	205	16.29%	22.73%	47.33%	53.95%
Improved efficiency in industry			61	83	8.02%	9.20%	23.28%	21.84%
Efficient commercial building and public buildings			5	7	0.66%	0.78%	1.91%	1.84%
Sustainable housing development			8	11	1.05%	1.22%	3.05%	2.89%
Lower CO2 electricity supply			50	104	6.57%	11.53%	19.08%	27.37%
TRANSPORT AND LIQUID FUELS	134	169	67	105	8.80%	11.64%	25.57%	27.63%
Sustainable transport development			5	10	0.66%	1.11%	1.91%	2.63%
Advanced transport options			5	10	0.66%	1.11%	1.91%	2.63%
Liquid fuel supply options			57	85	7.49%	9.42%	21.76%	22.37%
NON-ENERGY EMISSIONS	145	170	71	70	9.33%	7.76%	27.10%	18.42%
Reducing industrial process emissions			28	29	3.68%	3.22%	10.69%	7.63%
Waste minimisation			11	11	1.45%	1.22%	4.20%	2.89%
Improved agriculture			14	11	1.84%	1.22%	5.34%	2.89%
Emission reductions in LULUCF			18	19	2.37%	2.11%	6.87%	5.00%
Totals	761	902	262	380	34.43%	42.13%	100.00%	100.00%

Figure 7: Unpacking the Copenhagen mitigation undertakings - Deviation below Business-as-Usual (BAU) from contributions by various nationally appropriate mitigation actions

References

Davidson O.R., Tyani L., 2001. Climate Change and Sustainable Development: Future Perspectives for South Africa. Energy and Development Research Centre, University of Cape Town.

Department of Environmental Affairs and Tourism, 2005. Action for Climate Change – Conference Statement, 20 October 2005.

Department of Environmental Affairs and Tourism, 2009a. The National Climate Change Response Policy - Discussion Document for the 2009 National Climate Change Response Policy development Summit, Gallagher Convention Centre, Midrand, 3-6 March 2009.

Department of Environmental Affairs and Tourism, 2009b. Towards an Effective South African Climate Change Response Policy - Conference Statement, 6 March 2009.

Government of South Africa, 2009. Draft National Greenhouse Gas Inventory, Base Year 2000, Government Gazette No. 32490, Notice No. 1104 of 12 August 2009.

Letete, T., Guma, M. & Marquard, A., 2010. Information on climate change in South Africa: greenhouse gas emissions and mitigation options. Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town, 29pp.

The Presidency, 2009. President JG Zuma to attend Climate Change talks in Copenhagen. Presidency Press Statement of 6 December 2009.

Scenario Building Team. 2007. Long-Term Mitigation Scenarios - Strategic options for South Africa, Department of Environment Affairs and Tourism, Pretoria, October 2007, 27pp.

Scenario Building Team. 2007b. Long Term Mitigation Scenarios - Technical Summary, Department of Environment Affairs and Tourism, Pretoria, October 2007, 17pp.

Scenario Building Team. 2007c. Long Term Mitigation Scenarios - Technical Report, Department of Environment Affairs and Tourism, Pretoria, October 2007, 153pp.

1 The following section is based on: Department of Environmental Affairs and Tourism. 2005. Action for Climate Change – Conference Statement, 20 October 2005.

2 The following section is based on: Department of Environmental Affairs and Tourism. 2009. Towards an Effective South African Climate Change Response Policy - Conference Statement, 6 March 2009.

3 This section is based on: Department of Environmental Affairs and Tourism, 2009a. The National Climate Change Response Policy - Discussion Document for the 2009 National Climate Change Response Policy development Summit, Gallagher Convention Centre, Midrand, 3-6 March 2009.