Peter Lukey’s contribution to the Academy of Science of South Africa (assaf) Low Carbon Cities (lcc) Report

Peter Lukey’s contribution to the Academy of Science of South Africa (ASSAf) Low Carbon Cities (LCC) Report

Initial Working Draft, 10 June 2010

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Peter Lukey’s contribution to the Academy of Science of South Africa (ASSAf) Low Carbon Cities (LCC) Report 1

Initial Working Draft, 10 June 2010 1

2. Low Carbon Cities – The National Context 1

2.1 Background and Introduction – putting climate change on the national political agenda 1

2.2 The National Climate Change Response Policy 11

The following section is based on: Department of Environmental Affairs and Tourism. 2009. Towards an Effective South African Climate Change Response Policy - Conference Statement, 6 March 2009. 14

2.3 South Africa and the international negotiations 18

2.4 Energy – arguably the most significant national issue impacting on the local context 22

22

References 26

2.Low Carbon Cities – The National Context

2.1Background and Introduction – putting climate change on the national political agenda

During the mid- to late-1980s, there was an emerging body of scientific evidence that human induced global warming was taking place with severe predicted consequences for climate patterns. With this, the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) set up the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 1988 to synthesise the scientific evidence for, or against, human induced climate change.

The 1^st IPCC Assessment Report published in 1990 presented sufficient scientific evidence of climate change to elicit world wide concern and the negotiation of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which was opened for signature at the Rio Earth Summit in 1992 and came into force in 1994.

In 1994, in response to the growing international concerns around climate change, the Department of Environmental Affairs and Tourism established the National Climate Change Committee (NCCC, see 2.1.1), a multi-stakeholder forum aimed at discussing and informing South Africa’s response to these concerns.

The 2^nd IPCC Assessment report published in 1995 demonstrated that the actions outlined in the UNFCCC were insufficient and this motivated the negotiation of the Kyoto Protocol which was finalised in 1997 as a first step towards a more ambitious international response to the global climate change threat.

In response to the findings of the IPCC’s 2^nd Assessment Report and supported by recommendations from the NCCC, the South African Government ratified the UNFCCC in August 1997.

The 3^rd IPCC Assessment Report in 2001 gave further scientific certainty that climate change was indeed largely caused by human activity and provided impetus for the further development and operationalisation of the Kyoto Protocol, that finally came into force in 2005.

By 2001, South African researchers had also started taking a serious look at climate change and its implications. For example, the paper entitled “Climate Change and Sustainable Development: Future Perspectives for South Africa” (Davidson OR, Tyani L, 2001) was published at this time.

Arguably, climate change took a jump up the South African political agenda when, in 2002 the Heads of State of over 180 countries met at the World Summit on Sustainable Development in Johannesburg. In July of 2002 the South African Government acceded to the Kyoto Protocol.

By 2003, South Africa had concluded its Climate Change “Country Studies” and 1990 and 1994 greenhouse gas inventories and had submitted these in the form of its Initial Communication to the UNFCCC Secretariat. In compiling and finalising this briefing document on South Africa and climate change, it became clear that South Africa was not only a potentially significant victim of the negative impacts of climate change, but also a significant contributor to greenhouse gases. Given this difficult position of both climate change victim and perpetrator, South Africa’s negotiation efforts were seen to go up several notches at this time resulting in comments that South Africa “punches above its weight” in the climate change negotiations.

By 2005, based on evidence from the 3^rd IPCC Assessment Report and new emerging science, it was increasingly clear that the measures agreed to in the UNFCCC and it’s Kyoto Protocol were an inadequate international response to the threats posed by climate change. In particular since the legally binding provisions of the Kyoto Protocol only covered less than 40% of the world’s GHG emissions.

With the 3^rd IPCC Assessment Report, it also became clear that South Africa, along with other more advanced developing countries (e.g. China, India, Brazil, Mexico, South Korea and Saudi Arabia), would have to start seriously considering its responsibility for climate change and, that, as a fossil-fuel-powered nation, this would have dramatic policy implications.

The following sections provide further detail on the important developments from 2005 to the present -

2.1.1The early days – the National Climate Change Committee (NCCC)

As mentioned above, the National Climate Change Committee (NCCC) was established in 1994 – the year of South Africa’s first democratic election. Since then, the NCCC has met over fifty six times since its inception and at its 56^th meeting held on 15 February 2010, the key focus of discussions was, naturally, the outcome of the 15^th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change held in Copenhagen in December 2009.

The purpose of the NCCC is to advise and consult the Department of Environmental Affairs, through the department’s Deputy Director-General for Environmental Quality and Protection, on matters relating to national responsibilities with respect to climate change, and in particular, in relation to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Kyoto protocol and the implementation of climate change related activities.

The functions of the NCCC include:

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  Setting its own agenda and timetable, within a framework determined by the Department of Environmental Affairs.
  
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  Making recommendations to the Department of Environmental Affairs on issues related to climate change, and also to express the concerns of key stakeholders.
  
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  Designing and participating in processes leading to the formulation of national climate change policies and a national implementation strategies.
  
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  Proposing studies to be undertaken in support of national climate change policy development processes, their scope, timetable, budget and deadlines.
  
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  Communicating developments within the national and international climate change arena to their constituencies.
  
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  Delegating its functions and responsibilities to subcommittees, as needed.
  
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  Assisting and/or informing a structured process of capacity building and technology transfer/development.
  
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  Designing and participating in processes leading to the formulation of international positions for South at the UNFCCC negotiations, and
  
• 
  Forming part of the delegation at these negotiations.
  

The committee usually meets four times per year.

Individual members are designated representatives from defined stakeholder groups involved in climate change and the NCCC is constituted of, at least two, but no more than five, representatives from each of the following stakeholder groups:

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  National Government - Department of Environmental Affairs, Department of Mineral Resources, Department of Energy, Department of International relations and Cooperation, Department of Trade and Industry, Department of Water Affairs, Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, Department of Sustainable Human Settlements, Department of Transport, Department of Science and Technology, National Treasury and the Presidency.
  
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  Other spheres of government - Provincial environment departments, key municipalities (Metros).
  
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  Non-governmental and community-based environmental organisations
  
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  Academic and research institutions
  
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  Business and Industry
  
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  The national energy utility, Eskom
  
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  Organised Labour (Trades Union)
  

2.1.2The 2005 “Climate Action Now” Conference¹

From 17 to 20 October 2005, under the banner of “Climate Action Now”, South Africans from all spheres of life came together in Midrand to address the growing challenge of climate change and to prepare for its implications. Over 600 representatives from government, business, the scientific and academic communities, and civil society considered the science relating to climate change and key responses to the potential social and economic impacts associated with the compelling scientific evidence of climate change.

Most importantly, the conference unanimously agreed that climate change was a reality, sounding a death knell to a number of denialist commentators that had confused and confounded the public debate up to this point.

Furthermore, the gathering was broadly considered a reflection of Government’s commitment and determination to act on climate change and to shape policy informed by the best-available science.

In opening the Conference, the then Deputy President, Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka, affirmed that South Africa would accept its responsibility to address climate change and would mobilise different economic sectors to meet the challenge. She went on to note that this approach was to be carried out in line with government’s strategy for accelerated and equitable growth and sustainable job creation and poverty alleviation.

T
Figure 1: The 2005 National Climate Change Conference branding
he Conference gave a platform to eminent scientists and policy makers who outlined the present and likely impacts of climate change on South Africa. These included, among others, increases in the distribution and intensity of drought; reduced agricultural crop yields impacting on food security; potential species extinction; increased growth rates of invasive species; potentially catastrophic coral bleaching; and an increase in the areas affected by vector-borne diseases, including malaria. It was also clearly stated that, in all of these circumstances, it was the poor who would be worst affected.

The Conference agreed that climate change was one of the most significant threats to sustainable development across the globe and that human activity contributed to climate change. With this, the conference acknowledged the urgency of stabilising concentrations of greenhouse gas in the atmosphere - the ultimate objective of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change – and called on all nations to join in support of the international effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, with developed countries taking stronger action.

Furthermore, the conference also agreed that the time for countries like South Africa to take further action on the basis of differentiated responsibility had come and there was an expressed wish to see the emergence after 2012 of a strengthened Kyoto or Kyoto-plus regime that was more inclusive, flexible, cooperative and environmentally effective. In addition, the conference noted that the issue of adaptation needed to become a more prominent global priority in the climate regime.

Government’s stated commitment to climate action was also voiced by Ministers with portfolios of Environment, Minerals and Energy, Water and Forestry, Land and Agriculture, and Science and Technology. The Minister of Environmental Affairs and Tourism called for a world-wide climate change awareness campaign to demystify and mainstream climate change, urging the need to make the link, in the minds of ordinary people around the world, between their actions and climate change. The Minister of Agriculture and Land Affairs called for the promotion of food security in the face of the climate change threat. The Minister of Water Affairs and Forestry stressed how crucial water management would be in adapting to climate change impacts. The Minister of Science and Technology stressed the importance of a National Climate Change Research and Development Strategy as a key instrument to channel the nation’s efforts. The Minister of Minerals and Energy launched the Designated National Authority which was hoped would realize the potential of the Clean Development Mechanism and actively promote CDM projects in South Africa.

All conference participants agreed that South Africa must accelerate its national response as well as reinforce efforts in the international arena and affirmed that the nation’s climate change response was located within a sustainable development paradigm.

From a science and technology perspective, the broadening and deepening of the knowledge base on climate change was considered to be core to an accelerated response. This included prediction, scenarios, early warning systems, disaster management, as well as adaptation and mitigation interventions for South Africa in particular and Africa in general. There was agreement to intensify efforts to use the best available science to address adaptive and mitigation actions in a coordinated manner and a commitment to develop a critical mass of climate scientists to help grapple with the dynamics of climate change. Scientific institutions were urged to put measures in place to entice young scientists into this specialist field and emerging scientists were encouraged to exploit the opportunities presented to them through available programmes. It was affirmed that the nature of climate change and the issues associated with it lends itself to the need for a multi-disciplinary approach to research and development.

The conference resolved to take urgent action to meet the shared challenges in order to guarantee the nation’s common future.

Importantly, the conference also compiled and published a number of “statements of intent” by the key constituencies present at the conference in an attempt to demonstrate the common resolve to action and the mainstreaming of climate change considerations in all their respective spheres of activity.

2.1.2.1Government’s Statement of Intent – the Midrand Plan of Action

The published undertakings by government describing a number of activities regarded as constituting the foundation of a Midrand Plan of Action was meant to lead the country’s climate change programme into the future. These activities included:

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  Ensuring the alignment, cohesion and coherence of government responses to climate change by coordinating and driving its climate change responses and interventions through the Inter-Ministerial Committee on Climate Change, its associated Inter-Departmental Committee and the multi-stakeholder National Committee on Climate Change;
  
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  Continuing the review of the National Climate Change Response Strategy;
  
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  Initiating a detailed scenario building process to map out how South Africa could meet its UNFCCC Article 2 commitment to greenhouse gas stabilisation whilst ensuring its focus on poverty alleviation and job creation;
  
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  Initiating a participatory climate change policy development process;
  
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  Using the Air Quality Act to regulate greenhouse gas emissions and encourage a move to cleaner production, including the setting of emission standards that encourage energy efficiency;
  
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  Compiling sectoral action plans to implement the National Climate Change Response Strategy;
  
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  Initiating a participatory national climate change research and development strategy development process that would coordinate and focus current research in a manner that delivers the critical mass of multi-disciplinary knowledge in focus areas while creating the opportunity to develop and retain human capital and research infrastructure;
  
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  Driving increased research and innovation for the hydrogen economy using the research chairs programme and providing early demonstration of technologies for 2010;
  
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  Strengthening the South African Environmental Observation Network (SAEON) to facilitate long term climate research and establishing a coordinating mechanism for South Africa’s investment in earth observation as well as providing an interface with the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS);
  
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  Establishing the South African National Energy Research Institute (SANERI);
  
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  Developing a technology needs assessment to frame a programme of action for technology transfer;
  
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  Facilitating the development of clean technologies for climate change mitigation;
  
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  Actively supporting the strengthening of the CDM, particularly a streamlined methodology review process and mechanisms to reduce transactions costs for smaller, bundled projects, during the COP/MOP in Montreal in November 2005, without reopening the Marrakech Accords;
  
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  Ensuring that renewable energy and energy efficiency are included as viable alternatives to conventional fossil fuels in government’s integrated energy planning process;
  
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  Exploring new funding sources and mechanisms to support the rollout of renewable energy;
  
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  Establishing the National Energy Efficiency Agency to coordinate public and private investment in energy efficiency;
  
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  Considering climate change impacts in its water conservation and demand management initiatives;
  
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  Reviewing and reassessing the ways in which South Africa operates its dams and quantifies the Ecological Reserve to account for a changing climate;
  
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  Reviewing the details of water-sharing agreements in the light of new physical realities;
  
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  Examining the design and implementation of the water allocation reform process to ensure that climate change considerations are taken into account;
  
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  Designing and implementing an outreach strategy to create awareness of the implications of climate change among stakeholders and customers in the water sector;
  
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  Ensuring that climate change considerations are included in the evaluation of new agricultural research and development projects;
  
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  Reviewing and revising agricultural policy to ensure climate change resilience; and
  
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  Ensuring that climate change is fully considered and reflected in the four elements of agricultural early warning systems, including: prior risk knowledge; monitoring and warning services; dissemination of warnings/information; and response capacity.
  

Interestingly, the Midrand Plan of Action also included an acknowledgement of “Eskom’s re-statement of its commitment to displacing 10% of its coal-fired generating capacity with alternative sources by 2012 and its commitment to further reductions beyond 2012”.

2.1.3The Long-Term Emission Scenarios (LTMS)

One of the activities described in the so-called Midrand Plan of Action (see 2.1.2.1) was the initiation of a detailed scenario building process to map out how South Africa could meet its UNFCCC Article 2 commitment to greenhouse gas stabilisation whilst ensuring its focus on poverty alleviation and job creation.

To this end, in March 2006, Cabinet mandated a national process of building scenarios of possible greenhouse gas emission futures, informed by the best available research and information, to define not only South Africa’s position on future commitments under international treaties, but also to shape the country’s climate change policy for the longer-term future. This process became known as the Long-Term Mitigation Scenarios (LTMS) development process.

The focus of the LTMS process, as the name suggests, was mitigation (i.e. reducing emissions of greenhouse gases).

The Department of Environmental Affairs and Tourism (DEAT) as the focal point for climate change in South Africa convened and managed the process, which was overseen by the Inter-Ministerial Committee on Climate Change. DEAT appointed the Energy Research Centre at the University of Cape Town to project manage the entire process and they convened and contracted the process specialists and set up the personnel of four focussed Research Support Units.

The key objectives of the LTMS process included:

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  South African stakeholders understand and are focused on a range of ambitious but realistic scenarios of future climate action both for themselves and for the country, based on best available information, notably long-term emissions scenarios and their cost implications;
  
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  The South African delegation is well-prepared with clear positions for a post-2012 dialogue;
  
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  Cabinet can make informed decisions in respect of (a) a long-term climate change policy and (b) positions for the dialogue under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate change; and
  
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  Cabinet policy informed by the scenarios will assist future work to build public awareness and support for government initiatives.
  

In line with the Cabinet mandate, the LTMS Scenario Building Team (SBT) was established to carry out the technical aspects of the process. The Scenario Building Team was made up of over 80 individual stakeholders from government, industry, labour, civil society, as well as other relevant players.

On 24 October 2007, after a year of intense work, the initial technical work of the LTMS was signed off by the SBT at their sixth meeting. This work is reflected in the following documents:

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  The “Long-Term Mitigation Scenarios - Strategic options for South Africa”, a 27 page document that synthesizes the findings of the technical research into a tool for informed decision-making (Attached as annexure).
  
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  The “Long-Term Mitigation Scenarios – Technical Summary”, a 17 page document that provides the technical basis, in abridged form, for the “Long-Term Mitigation Scenarios - Strategic options for South Africa” document (Attached as annexure).
  
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  The “Long-Term Mitigation Scenarios – Technical Report”, a 153 page report on the LTMS research. This document is also supported by technical reports on: Energy emissions; Non-energy emissions; Macro-economic analysis; and Climate impacts.
  

The LTMS developed two scenarios that provide the “envelope” for possible greenhouse gas mitigation interventions as illustrated in Figure 2.

Figure 2: The two greenhouse gas emission scenarios 2003 - 2050

The upper limit of the intervention envelope has been called the “Growth Without Constraints” Scenario and it answers the question “what would our economy and its greenhouse gas emissions look like if, in 2050 (and beyond), South Africa was not subject to any climate change constraint, if there were no climate impacts highly damaging to the economy, if there was no significant oil constraint, and if we made our choices to energise our economy purely on least-cost grounds?” In this Scenario, South Africa’s emissions in the base year, 2003, stand at 440 megatons of CO₂-eq. By 2050, our emissions have quadrupled to around 1600 Mt.

The lower limit of the intervention envelope has been called the “Required By Science” Scenario and it answers the question “what would our economy and its greenhouse gas emissions look like if, by 2050, South Africa had all the resources and technology readily at its disposal to contribute significantly to the global mitigation effort that is required to stabilise the climate, what would have to be achieved and what would the implications be if South Africa charted this course from 2007 onwards?” Globally, what the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change tells us is that reductions by 2100 of between -60% to -80% from 1990 levels must be achieved. The burden sharing between nations of this target is the subject of the international negotiations. In this Scenario, the burden taken up by South Africa is not exact, but is seen rather as a target band ranging between -30% and -40% from 2003 levels by 2050, assuming a burden-sharing discount, which, in itself, was considered to be tough to negotiate.

A further trajectory, called Current Development Plans is added - this assumes that government policy in place at the time of the study is implemented (e.g. renewable energy targets, energy efficiency accords, etc.). For example, energy efficiency interventions achieve a final energy demand reduction of 12% by 2015. The target of 10 000 GWh renewable energy contribution to final energy consumption by 2013 is also included. When simply extended to 2050, however, the diagram illustrates that the trajectory under the Growth without Constraints story would not be radically changed: it would still continue climbing, and would still see emissions reach a point above 1500 Mt.

Within this envelope, three strategic options were considered to drive greenhouse gas emissions from the Growth Without Constraints Scenario to the Required By Science Scenario as illustrated in Figure 3.

In the first of the strategic options, known as the “Start Now” option, mitigation actions are suggested that are implemented through state action. The actions suggested should be taken for good economic reasons and other sustainable development co-benefits, quite independent of climate change. As a package this option saves money over time, even if pushed right along to 2050.

In the second strategic option, the “Scale-Up” option, South Africa increases its level of ambition, and achieves it through regulatory decision. The effect of this on the emissions trajectory can be seen in Figure 3, and gets about halfway to the objective if taken through to 2050.

Figure 3: The strategic options described by the LTMS

The third option, the “Use The Market” option, aims to get the market to work and promote the uptake of the accelerated technologies and social behaviour through incentives and taxes. At the tax levels considered here, Use the Market results in emissions reductions beyond those seen in Scale Up. Use the Market thus includes a package that prepares South Africa to make use of economic instruments – both taxes and incentives – to shift patterns of domestic investment. The key driver of Use the Market is a CO₂ tax. This price change makes the use of fossil fuels much less attractive, and induces an indirect effect of greater investment in low-carbon technologies.

Given the above, the key findings of the LTMS process are:

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  Growing without carbon constraints may be good for South Africa’s economic growth, but will result in rapidly increasing emissions. A four-fold increase in emission by 2050 is likely to be unacceptable to the international community and is a high-risk approach on other grounds, such as rising oil prices and carbon constraints in trade.
  
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  If all countries, including high emitters in the developing word, adopted this approach, climate change impacts in South Africa would be extensive.
  
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  A massive effort by South Africa would be required to achieve emissions reduction sufficient to meet the Required By Science target. The gap between where South Africa’s emissions are going and where they need to go is large.
  
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  Certain quantifiable strategic mitigation options are immediately implementable, even if they require significant effort. These include energy efficiency, especially in industry; electricity supply options; carbon capture and storage (CCS); transport efficiency and shifts; people-oriented strategies; supported by awareness. These potential strategies show good emissions reduction results: with costs to the economy range from affordable to significant.
  
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  Within the quantifiable mitigation strategies, South Africa can choose both regulatory and economic instruments. Neither of these, however, completely closes the gap. With an escalating tax, economic instruments go the furthest in closing the gap – by almost three-quarters. But they are not intrinsically more effective than regulation.
  
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  Hence much preparation of a range of further, more uncertain, and for now, less understood actions need immediate exploration. These range from future technology to changes in social behaviour.
  
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  Key to success will be strong, committed South African / national leadership coupled with international alignment and active support.
  

In conclusion, the full implications for negotiators on the international front need to be further explored by the delegation. The LTMS process has analysed a range of quantifiable mitigation objectives, which provide information for South Africa to negotiate. For domestic policy makers, business leaders and leaders in South African society, LTMS has revealed that action will be required across the board, and that extensive further work is required.

2.1.4The 2007 ANC Climate Change Resolution

A few weeks following the sign-off of the LTMS, the ANC made a strong climate change resolution at its 52^nd National Conference in Polokwane. This resolution included –

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  Recognising that climate change is a new threat on a global scale and poses an enormous burden upon South Africans and Africans as a whole because we are the most vulnerable to the effects of climate change. The risks to the poor are the greatest.
  
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  Recognising that the evidence for climate change is indisputable and that immediate action by all governments and the public as a whole is needed.
  
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  Setting a target for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions as part of our responsibility to protect the environment and promote sustainable development, and to participate in sharing the burden with the global community under a common framework of action.
  
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  Supporting the meeting of the target through: a) energy efficiency improvements in industry, in households and by setting vehicle fuel efficiency standards; b) diversifying energy sources away from coal, including through nuclear energy and renewables - especially solar power; c) putting a price on the emission of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases; d) allocating significant additional resources for the research and development of innovative clean and low-carbon technologies, including by retrofitting existing technologies; e) further exploration and development of carbon capture and storage methods; f) the introduction of a tariff system that promotes the efficient use of electricity; and g) the promotion of affordable public transport, the expansion of rail logistics and the reversal of the apartheid spatial legacy.
  
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  Escalating our national efforts towards the realisation of a greater contribution of renewable energy sources, including solar and wind power, as part of an ambitious renewable energy target. The hydroelectric potential of the SADC region should be included in our plans.
  
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  Further ensuring that our economy benefits from the global growth potential of the renewable energy sector, including through the provision of incentives for investment in renewable energy infrastructure as well as human resources to ensure that institutions and companies are ready to take full advantage of renewable energy opportunities. Moreover to promote the realignment of institutional mechanisms which will fast-track the utilisation of renewable energy to mitigate the climate change effects, including the implementation of a feed-in tariff.
  
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  Moving to an energy efficient economy should take due regard of the imperative to create jobs. Consideration should be given to launch a green jobs programme.
  
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  Mobilising the public, business and other players to act responsibly and save energy both as collectives and in their individual capacity, including through a mandatory national energy efficiency programme. Industrial and commercial buildings have particular potential for efficiency improvements. The government, as a huge consumer of electricity, has a special responsibility in this regard. Government buildings and installations must be given mandatory targets to become energy efficient.
  
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  Encouraging further and increased efforts to raise public awareness about energy saving. Energy saved reduces both greenhouse gases and the need to build new power plants.
  
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  Escalating our efforts to encourage efficiency in the consumption of energy, including through the integration of energy-saving technologies into our social programmes and by leading campaigns to encourage environmental and energy-conscious consumer behaviour.
  
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  Further integrating climate change considerations with sustainable development strategies, the science and technology agenda, integrated energy planning, transport policy and the evolving industrial policy. In this context to maximise the integration of a full cost accounted economy in which the life cycle of products is internalised and the goal of zero waste production is pursued.
  
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  Continue to pro-actively build our capacity, and develop a comprehensive strategy, to adapt to the inevitable impacts of climate change, including in the roll-out of basic services, infrastructure planning, agriculture, biodiversity, water resource management and in the health sector.
  
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  Introducing environmental studies and the appreciation of nature in the school curriculum, and,
  
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  Building partnerships between state institutions, business, trade unions, civil society and communities to address these challenges together.
  

With this, it was clear that, not only had climate change moved well up the political agenda, but that there was strong support and political will for the development of a progressive national climate change response policy.