Republic of turkey

2. THE STRATEGIC OBJECTIVES OF THE HIGHER EDUCATION IN TURKEY

A recommended strategy for Turkey, even if not in detail, must offer choices regarding the degrees of strategic objectives. The clarification of strategic objectives can be achieved by attributing objectives to the performance of the system and its basic parameters.

After several tries, the strategic objectives recommended for Turkey are listed here in three charts. While developing these charts, the summary works about the principle variables defining the higher education system have been used and also a selection has been made regarding the fact that how the parameters of the system will change. The recommended strategic objectives have not only aimed one year, but it has given predictions regarding the performance of the system and its parameters for the years 2005, 2010, 2015, 2020 and 2025. It can be said that these strategic objectives bear pretensions and have realizable characteristics.

In the first chart it has been defined with the increase of the number of students how the academic service offered by the higher education system must develop. Chart 1 has been started to be developed with the predictions how the higher education population of the epoch will increase. The predictions regarding the population for higher education (20-23 years) have been determined from the predictions of the State Statistical Institute. The population within this age group will increase until 2015 from 5.100.000 to 5.600.000, will then start to decrease and will be 5.200.000 in 2025.

In order to pass from these predictions to the development of the number of students in the higher education, the parameters of the school enrolment had to be determined. For this, as it can be seen in the second line of Chart 1, it has been assumed that Turkey will increase the enrolment of its population in the age group for higher education to 65 % which is today’s enrolment rate in developed countries. The level of enrolment does not increase in the linear way; the increase will accelerate as the year 2025 is approached. Under these assumptions, it has been necessary to increase the number of 2.000.000 higher education students (2 years and 4 years programmes) in the year 2005 to 3.380.000 until the year 2025. This is an objective related to increase which can be realized.

The information regarding how Chart 1 is filled in is given in the part of explanations, and also some information must be given about the reasons for the choice of parameters here. The total number of higher education students given in the third line of the chart, has been split to sub-categories of distance education, evening classes, state universities and foundation (private) universities. By doing this, the share of distance learning within higher education has been decreased from 35 % to 11 % within 20 years. And by doing this, the ratios of developed countries have been taken into consideration (Annex 16), and on the other hand the observation that this system at Anadolu University is shifting towards life-long learning became decisive.

Chart 1: Predictions Regarding the Number of Students for the Higher Education System, 2005-2025

Explanation	S		2005	2010			2015			2020		2025
	1	Predictions regarding the population in the age group of higher education	5.100	5.500			5.600			5.300		5.200
	2	Assumed enrolment levels	39,2	40,7			45,7			55,7		65,0
S.1 x S.2	3	Students of higher education (1000)	2.000	2.240			2.560			2.950		3.380
	4	Increase of Students (1000)	240 320 390 430
	5	Share of distance education (%)	35,0	30,4			23,0			17,0		11,2
S.3 x S.5	6	Distance education students (1000)	700	680			590			500		380
S.3 – S.6	7	Higher education (2 years and 4 years)	1.300	1.560			1.970			2.450		3.000
	8	Share of evening classes (%)	26,0	23,8			21,3			20,1		19,0
S.7 x S.8	9	Evening classes (2 years and 4 years)	340	370			420			490		570
	10	Share of private universities within Higher education (%)	7,0	10,4			12,5			14,3		16,0
S.7 x S.10	11	Number of students in private universities (1000)	90	160			250			350		480
S.7– S.9 – S.11	12	Number of Students in daily classes at state universities	870	1.030			1.300			1.610		1.950
	13	Increase of capacity of state universities (1000)	160			270			310		340
	14	What will be met by the development plan for the newly established 15 universities (1000)	45			70			70		70
	15	Newly created capacity by the state Number of students (1000)	115			200			240		270
Developments which will be achieved in the fields of education after university level
	16	Ratio of students after university degree %	11,0	13,0			16,0			19,0		21,0
S.7 x S.16	17	Number of students after university degree (1000)	140	200			315			465		630
	18	Share of private universities (%)	7,0	9,0			12,0			15,0		18,0
S.17 x S.18	19	Number of Students in private universities (1000)	10	18			38			70		115
S.17 – S.19	20	Number of students in state universities	130	182			277			395		515
	21	Increase in the number of students at state universities	52		95			120			120

While filling in the lower lines of Chart 1, it has been assumed that there will be a certain decrease in the shares of distance learning and that the share of private universities will double compared to the current share. Under these predictions there lies the necessity that the number of students of two and four year programmes students at state universities must increase by about 250.000. Of course, in the first years this will happen slower, and afterwards this will accelerate. If it is assumed that 60.000 of these will be met with the establishment of 15 new universities, it becomes obvious that the state has to create an additional capacity for 190.000 students every 5 years.

In the lower lines of Chart 1, the objectives regarding the increase of the number of students in the masters level has been set. The number of students at this level has been increased much faster. For this level, the state has to create every five years an increase in capacity of about 100.000 students.

Chart 2 has been prepared in order to show how the increase of the number of students in Chart 1 will affect the number of instructors. In other words, it lays down the dimensions of the necessity of human capital.

Chart 2: Predictions Regarding the Number of Instructors and Staff, 2005 – 2025

Explanation	S		2005	2010	2015	2020	2025
	1	Total number of higher education students (1000)	1.300	1.560	1.970	2.450	3.000
	2	Share of students of colleges (2 years) (%)	31	31	31	31	31
S.1 x S.2	3	Number of students in colleges	400	480	610	760	930
	4	Ratio of college students versus instructors	57	50	41	32	24
S.2 x S.4	5	Number of instructors in colleges	7.000	9.600	17.200	23.800	39.000
S.1 – S.3	6	Number of university students (1000)	900	1.080	1.360	1.690	2.070
	7	Ratio of students after university degree (%)	11,0	13,0	16,0	19,0	21,0
S.1 x S.7	8	Students after university degree (1000)	140	200	315	465	630
S.6 + S.8	9	University + graduate students (1000)	1.040	1.280	1.675	2.155	2.700
	10	Ratio of university + graduate students versus instructors	32	30	25	21	17
S.9 / S.10	11	Number of instructors	32.000	43.000	67.000	100.000	160.000
	12	Ratio of research assistants versus instructors	0,9	0,8	0,7	0,6	0,6
S.11 x S.12	13	Number of research assistants	28.800	34.500	47.000	60.000	96.000
	14	Ratio of the number of university + graduate students versus other research staff	45	40	35	32	30
S.9 / S.14	15	Number of other research staff	23.000	32.000	48.000	67.000	90.000
S.5 + S.11 + S.13 + S.15	16	Total number of instructors	90.000	119.100	179.200	250.800	385.000
	17	Increase in the number of instructors	11.000 24.000 33.000 60.000
	18	Decrease in the stock of existing instructors	1.200 1.300 3.200 3.700
	19	Number of new instructors who must be provided	12.200 25.300 36.200 63.700
	20	Increase of other instructors	9.000 16.000 19.000 23.000
	21	Decrease in the stock of other instructors	1.000 1.200 1.200 1.200
	22	Number of necessary new instructors	10.000 17.200 20.200 24.200
The numbers of New PhD Degrees Which the Higher Education System Must Provide
	23	Turkey’s objective regarding full-time researches per 1000 employees	1,25	2	4	7	10
	24	Number of employees (1000)	24.000	26.000	29.000	32.000	35.000
	25	Number of full-time researchers	30.000	52.000	116.000	224.000	350.000
	26	Demand of the higher education system for full-time researchers	19.000	25.000	43.000	65.000	100.000
S.25 – S.26	27	Full-time researchers outside of universities	11.000	27.000	73.000	159.000	250.000
	28	Increase in the number of full-time researchers outside of universities	16.000 46.000 86.000 91.000
S.19 + 0.25*S.28	29	Increase in the number of total PhD degree holders	16.200 36.800 57.700 86.500
	30	Average demand for PhD degrees	3.500 7.400 11.500 17.000

The critical parameter which will allow the shifting from the number of students to the number of instructors is the number of students per instructor. One of the preconditions in order to improve the quality of education in Turkey is to decrease the number of student per instructor. In order to achieve this, important improvements have been made in colleges and universities 4 year and graduate programmes by keeping in mind the averages in OECD countries. It has been agreed that within a period of 20 years the current number of 57 students per instructor will decrease to 24 in colleges, and the ratio regarding students versus instructors which is currently 32 will decrease to 17 at universities 4 year and graduate programmes.

Under this agreement, the universities must decrease the number of instructors from 32.000 to 160.000 within 20 years. By keeping in mind that within this period of 20 years one part of the instructors will get retired, according to a calculation done, there will be a demand for new instructors of a number of 12.200 within the first 5 years of the period, 25.300 in the second 5 years, 36.200 in the third 5 years and a total of 63.700 of in the fourth 5 years. In Chart 2 it can be observed that the number of instructors in colleges will increase from 7.000 to 39.000 in 20 years. It is being assumed that the increase in the number of the instructors for the first 5 years will be 2.600, for the second 5 years 7.600, for the third 5 years 6.600 and for the fourth 5 years 16.200. The number of increase of research assistants as well as other research staff can be observed in Chart 2.

In the last section of Chart 2 the number in order to meet the need for labour force with PhD degree has been calculated. As it can also be followed easily from the chart, the demand comes from 2 different areas. The first demand to obtain PhD degrees comes from universities in order to meet the increase of instructors. The second demand arises from the fact that Turkey is a part of the European Research Area. According to the predictions of the EU the research and development costs will be increased up to 2,5 % of the GDP and this will also increase the need for researchers having PhD degree.

In order to meet the both demands, Turkey has to produce in the first 5 years of the period 3.500, in the second 5 years 7.400, in the third 5 years 11.500 and in the fourth 5 years 17.000 PhD degrees per year.

The third dimension of the strategic objectives which needs to be clarified is regarding the financing objectives.

To this end, Chart 3 has been prepared. While preparing this chart, it has been assumed that the GDP will increase in average 5% per year. By being aware of the fact that the concerns that the quantity would not be enough for the higher education system of Turkey and that efforts must be done in order to improve the quality, it has been assumed that the expense of the state for each student will be increased from 4.095 YTL to 8.200 YTL. The existence of the window of demographic opportunities which has been emphasized in the first part of this analysis will render the acceptance of this agreement possible. It must also be stated that if Turkey wants to improve the quality, it will be necessary to make the foreseen expenses.

Chart 3: Predictions about the Amount of Necessary State Expenses for Higher Education, 2005 – 2025

(with prices of 2005)

Explanation	S		2005	2010	2015	2020	2025
	1	Annual rate of increase of the GDP (%)	5	5	5	5	5
S.2 (1.05) E5	2	GDP (Billion YTL)	481,8	615,1	785,0	1002,0	1280,0
	3	Ratio of the budget of higher education compared to GDP (%)	1,082	1,378	1,596	1,784	1,935
	4	Ratio of research and development expenses compared to GDP (%)	0,79	1,5	2,0	2,25	2,50
	5	Ratio of private sector within research and development expenses (%)	0,40	0,45	0,50	0,55	0,60
S.2 x S.3	6	Budget of Higher Education (Billion YTL)	5,218	8,477	12,528	17,871	34,764
S.2 x S.4 (1-S.5)	7	Expense of the state for research and development (Billion YTL)	2,300	5,074	7,850	10,145	12,800
S.6 + S.7	8	Total expense of the state (Billion YTL)	7,518	13,551	20,378	28,016	37,564
	9	Annual expense per student in YTL	4,095	4,900	5,800	6,900	8,200

Under these agreements, in order to realize the objectives of Chart 2 and Chart 3, the necessary development regarding the amount of the state financing has been mentioned in the line 6 of Chart 3. When these financing objectives are realized, the ratio of higher education within the GDP will increase from 1,082 in 2005 to 1,378 in 2010, to 1,569 in 2015, to 1,784 in 2020 and to 1,935 in 2025. This is a development which is possible to be realized.