The other side of the coin: the growing opposition in turkey against to the european union accession



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Scenario 1 (Basic scenario): In this scenario total fertility rate decreases in its natural flow and reaches to its lowest value 1.65 in 2050, and then increases after this year and reaches the value of 1.85 in 2075.

Scenario 2: In this scenario total fertility rate increases to 2.11 in 2020 and to 2.50 in 2050 gradually, and then remains stable between the years 2050 and 2075.
Scenario 3: In this scenario total fertility rate increases gradually to 3 in 2050, and then remains stable to 2075.” Population Projections, 2013-2075.

42
 Age structure of the population by years is based on the data from 2013 Population Projections and Elderly Statistics, 2012.

43
 “Population at 1 January, 2012”. Inhabitants of the EU, including 27 member states. Eurostat.

http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/tgm/table.do?tab=table&language=en&pcode=tps00001&tableSelection=1&footnotes=yes&labeling=labels&plugin=1




44
 Europe in Figures. Eurostat yearbook 2012. Figure 2.2.6. p. 118.

http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/cache/ITY_OFFPUB/KS-CD-12-001/EN/KS-CD-12-001-EN.PDF




45
 Öymen, Onur. 2003. “Türkiye`nin Gücü: 21.Yüzyılda Türkiye, Avrupa ve Dünya”. Istanbul, Turkey: Remzi Kitapevi. 5th edition. p. 67.

46

Öymen, Onur. 2003. “Türkiye`nin Gücü: 21.Yüzyılda Türkiye, Avrupa ve Dünya”. Istanbul, Turkey: Remzi Kitapevi. 5th edition. p. 96.

47

Ibid.

48

DAVUTOĞLU, Ahmet. Turkey’s Foreign Policy Vision: An Assessment of 2007. Insight Turkey: Vol. 10, No. 1, 2008. p.78.

49
 DENIZ, Mahmut. "Vali Sebahattin Öztürk Bakan Sayın Mehdi Eker İle Birlikte Gıda Kongresi 2013 Açılışına Katıldı" Republic of Turkey, Governorship of Antalya: 13 November 2013.

http://www.antalya.gov.tr/detay/2121/vali-sebahattin-ozturk-bakan-sayin-mehdi-eker-ile-birlikte-gida-kongresi-2013-acilisina-katildi.html



50

Turkish Statistical Institute. Agricultural Land Statistics from 2001 to 2012.

http://www.turkstat.gov.tr/PreTablo.do?alt_id=1001



51

Table 2.1: Key farm variables, 2010. The structure of agriculture in the EU - agricultural census 2010. Eurostat Pocketbooks. Agriculture, forestry and fishery statistics, 2013 edition. Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union, 2013. p. 24

http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/cache/ITY_OFFPUB/KS-FK-13-001/EN/KS-FK-13-001-EN.PDF




52

DENIZ, Mahmut. "Vali Sebahattin Öztürk Bakan Sayın Mehdi Eker İle Birlikte Gıda Kongresi 2013 Açılışına Katıldı" Republic of Turkey, Governorship of Antalya: 13 November 2013. http://www.antalya.gov.tr/detay/2121/vali-sebahattin-ozturk-bakan-sayin-mehdi-eker-ile-birlikte-gida-kongresi-2013-acilisina-katildi.html

53
 Eurostat Pocketbooks. Agriculture, forestry and fishery statistics, 2013 edition. Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union, 2013. p.p. 219

http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/cache/ITY_OFFPUB/KS-FK-13-001/EN/KS-FK-13-001-EN.PDF



54
 Ibid. p.p.: 220


55
 The data presents the total number of Sea Products, Aquaculture Production and Freshwater Products to determine the total amount of fishery production in 2011. Source: Turkish Statistical Institute. Fishery Statistics from 2001 to 2012. http://www.turkstat.gov.tr/PreTablo.do?alt_id=1005

56
 NYE, Joseph Jr. 2004. Power in the Global Information Age. London: Routledge. p. 53.

57
 Ibid.

58
 ÖYMEN, Onur. 2012. Uçurumun Kenarında Dış Politika – Eleştiriler, Yorumlar, Uyarılar... , Istanbul: Remzi Kitapevi, 1st edition. p. 236.

59
 North Atlantic Treaty Organization: Member Countries, the Accession of Greece and Turkey.

http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/topics_52044.htm




60
 Richardson, Joel. 07 May 2011. Turkey to double size of its army. WND, commentary: http://www.wnd.com/2011/07/318757/

61
 A detailed data is available on Military Strength of Turkey at the official website of Global Fire Power.

http://www.globalfirepower.com/country-military-strength-detail.asp?country_id=Turkey




62
 Turkish Armed Forces (Türk Silahlı Kuvvetleri –TSK), Turkish General Staff. Force Structure.

http://www.tsk.tr/ing/1_about_the_taf/1_6_force_structure/force_structure.htm



63
 European Union, Foreign and Security Policy. http://europa.eu/pol/cfsp/index_en.htm

64

European Union. European Defence Agency. Last updated: 11.03.2011

http://europa.eu/legislation_summaries/foreign_and_security_policy/cfsp_and_esdp_implementation/r00002_en.htm




65
 Ortaylı, İlber. 2011. “Avrupa ve Biz” İstanbul, Turkey: Türkiye İş Bankası Kültür Yayınları. 8th edition. p.41.

66

Republic of Turkey, Ministry of Economy. Statistics and Analysis, Economic Outlook – November 2013 (İstatistik ve Analiz, Ekonomik Görünüm - Kasım 2013) p.p.: 8 http://www.ekonomi.gov.tr/index.cfm?sayfa=index&CFID=11281621&CFTOKEN=74432918#


67
 Countries which have advanced economies in the EU : Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Netherlands, Belgium, Austria, Greece, Portugal, Finland, Ireland, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Luxembourg, Estonia, Cyprus, Malta, United Kingdom, Sweden, Czech Republic and Denmark. (Source: IMF – World Economic and Financial Surveys. World Economic Outlook, April 2013 - Hopes, Realities, Risks. p.p.: 166.

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2013/01/pdf/text.pdf)



68
 Gross domestic product (GDP) is a measure of the economic activity, defined as the value of all goods and services produced less the value of any goods or services used in their creation. The calculation of the annual growth rate of GDP volume is intended to allow comparisons of the dynamics of economic development both over time and between economies of different sizes. For measuring the growth rate of GDP in terms of volumes, the GDP at current prices are valued in the prices of the previous year and the thus computed volume changes are imposed on the level of a reference year; this is called a chain-linked series. Accordingly, price movements will not inflate the growth rate. (Eurostat)

69
 G20 member countries are Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Republic of Korea, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Turkey, United Kingdom, United States and European Union.

70

France, Germany, Italy and United Kingdom have been presented separately from the EU. In other words, as a member of G20, the EU presents the rest of the member states.

71

G20 members. http://www.g20.org/about_g20/g20_members

72

Republic of Turkey, Ministry of Economy. The Exports Strategy Of Turkey For 2023.

http://www.economy.gov.tr/upload/strategy/strategy2023.pdf



73
 The volume index of GDP per capita in Purchasing Power Standards (PPS) is expressed in relation to the European Union (EU28) average set to equal 100. If the index of a country is higher than 100, this country's level of GDP per head is higher than the EU average and vice versa. Basic figures are expressed in PPS, i.e. a common currency that eliminates the differences in price levels between countries allowing meaningful volume comparisons of GDP between countries. The index, calculated from PPS figures and expressed with respect to EU28 = 100, is intended for cross-country comparisons rather than for temporal comparisons. (Eurostat)

74
 Member countries of the European Union.

http://europa.eu/about-eu/countries/member-countries/index_en.htm



75
 Ali M. El-Agraa: The European Union: Economics and Policies, 2011. Cambridge University Press p.1.

76
 Ibid. p.35

77
 Ibid. p.36

78
 The institutions and other bodies of European Union were defined as European Council, European Parliament, Council of the European Union, European Commission, Court of Justice, European Central Bank and etc. http://europa.eu/about-eu/institutions-bodies/index_en.htm

Moreover, the symbols present the European anthem, the European flag, the motto (United in diversity, Europe day (9 May) and the currency of the Union which is the Euro (only in the countries that have adopted the euro). http://europa.eu/scadplus/constitution/objectives_en.htm#VALUES



79
 The information was written in accordance of The Treaty of Nice which "introduced a qualified majority system based on a new weighting of votes and a demographic verification clause". However, "with the entry into force of the Treaty of Lisbon a new system known as double majority was introduced” that "the new qualified majority corresponds to at least 55% of the members of the Council, comprising at least 15 of them and representing at least 65% of the European population". As the new system, double majority will enter into force on 1 November 2014. Therefore, the data was presented by taking into consideration the date of the thesis and applicability date of the Treaty of Nice’s system (31 October 2014).
Note: The given information about voting system in the EU was cited from the official website of the EU: http://europa.eu/legislation_summaries/glossary/qualified_majority_en.htm

80
 Data was taken from the table of Referendum tendencies of individuals in Turkey on European Union membership from 2004 to 2012. Retrieved from the official website of Turkish Statistical Institute:

http://www.tuik.gov.tr/PreIstatistikTablo.do?istab_id=729



81
 Referendum tendency is a term which was used by Turkish Statistical Institute which is Republic of Turkey's official statistics agency. The term tries to explain; if a referendum had been done in Turkey about to become a member of the European Union, the people would vote in which direction. In short, how Turkish people would vote in a case of referendum on joining the EU.

82
 The data for the age group from 18 to 24 is not avaible.

83
 Ibid.

84
 National Report: Turkey. Autumn 2011. Public Opinion in the European Union. Standard Eurobarometer 76: pp.4-5.


85
 LAZAROVA, Daniela. Prague endorses Turkey’s EU candidacy. Radio Praha: March 5, 2013. http://www.radio.cz/en/section/curraffrs/prague-endorses-turkeys-eu-candidacy

86
 As the first female Prime Minister of Turkey, Tansu Çiller served from 25 June 1993 to 6 March 1996. She was Prime Minister of 50th, 51st and 52nd governments in Turkey. (Republic of Turkey Prime Ministry Records) During her period, the EU – Turkey Customs Union procedure was finalized on 6 March 1995 at the Turkey-EU Association Council and came into force on 1 January 1996.


87
 DUMANLI, Ekrem. Being denied EU membership not end of world, says Erdoğan. Today’s Zaman: February 5, 2013. http://www.todayszaman.com/news-306191-.html


88
 PEKER, Emre. Turkey Moves to Strengthen Its Ties With Europe. The Wall Street Journal: April 2, 2013.

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB40001424127887323296504578398570157107116



89
 Turkish President Gül slams EU visa policy for Turkey. Vilnius, Anatolia News Agency. Hürriyet Daily News: April 5, 2013.

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkish-president-gul-slams-eu-visa-policy-for-turkey.aspx?pageID=238&nID=44296&NewsCatID=338




90
 Visa Is a Means Unfair Competition, Says Minister. TurkishNY: Turkish – American Web Portal. Anatolia News Agency (AA), March 25, 2013.

http://www.turkishny.com/english-news/5-english-news/117862-visa-is-a-means-unfair-competition-says-minister#.UV7TuDfO91N




91
 Minister says Turkey to 'reconsider' EU Customs Union. Today’s Zaman, Istanbul: March 25, 2013.

http://www.todayszaman.com/news-310708-minister-says-turkey-to-reconsider-eu-customs-union.html




92
 LEVENT, Sefer. “Revise Customs Union or cancel it totally, Turkey tells EU” Hürriyet Daily News. Istanbul. March 28, 2013.

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/revise-customs-union-or-cancel-it-totally-turkey-tells-eu.aspx?pageID=238&nID=43815&NewsCatID=344




93
 Peker, Emre. “Turkey Takes Steps Toward Europe”. Istanbul, the Wall Street Journal. April 3, 2013.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323296504578398570157107116.html?KEYWORDS=Turkey



94

Babacan: Turkey feels unwanted in Europe. Hurriyet Daily News. http://www.hurriyet.com.tr/english/turkey/8627900.asp?gid=231&sz=39064

95
 YANARIŞIK, Oğuzhan. Avrupa Ailesindeki Üvey Kardeş Türkiye: AB Üyelik Sürecinde Türkiye’ye Ugulanan Ayrımci Muamelenin Analizi. Istanbul, Turkey: Barış Matbaa. December 2012.

96
 After the application of Turkey in 1987, a heavy criticism campaign began against to Turkey in the EU member states and institutions. (Öymen, 2003: 275)


97
 As a very valuable and important Turkish professor, Prof. Dr. Erol MANİSALI (born in 1940) is specialist on economics and international relations. He is retired from Istanbul University where he worked from 1962 to 2007. He served as a chairman and member of the various Foundations and Research Centers which are related with Europe, Middle East, Cyprus and Balkans. He is well-known with his numerous books related with the relations between European Union and Turkey, besides his writings in Cumhuriyet Newspaper.


98
 Treaty of Balta Liman was a trade agreement between the Ottoman Empire and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland that was signed in 1838, in Baltalimani, Istanbul. Both Tanzimât Fermânı (1839) and Islâhat Fermânı (1856) were reform edicts of the Ottoman Empire during the period of decline (1828–1908).


99
 MANİSALI, Erol. “Dünden Bugüne Türkiye Avrupa Birliği İlișkileri” in Hâlâ Avrupa Birliği’ne Tam Üyelik? Tehditler, Avantajlar ve Çözüm Önerileri ed. by Prof. Dr. Nevhis Deren-Yildirim, (Istanbul: On İki Levha Yayıncılık, February 2008), 1st edition. p.5.

100
 Ibid. p.1-5.

101
 Ibid. p.4.

102
 Ibid. p.6.

103
 MANISALI, Erol. (January 2003). Türkiye – Avrupa İlișkilerinde Sessiz Darbe. Istanbul: Derin Yayınları, 6th edition. pp. 182.

104
 Ibid. pp. 186.

105
 ECRI Report on Turkey (2011), Article 82. p. 29-30.


106
 Treaty of Sèvres was signed on August 10, 1920 by Ottoman Empire with Britain, France, Italy, Greece, USA, Romania, Serb-Croat-Slovene Kingdom (Yugoslavia), Japan, Bulgaria, Russia, Ukraine and Georgia that consisted 433 articles. To enter into force of the Treaty of Sevres, it needed to be approved by authorized committees of the States Parties. To enter into force of the Treaty of Sevres, it needed to be approved by authorized committees of the States Parties. The activities of Meclis-i Mebusan (Chamber of Deputies) were terminated due to the occupation and repression on March 18, 1920. The Grand National Assembly of Turkey in Ankara was opposed to the treaty from the beginning; for this reason, the Treaty of Sèvres was disapproved. (The Turkish Armed Forces, Turkish General Staff records: Sevr Antlaşması – “Treaty of Sèvres”)

107
 ECRI Report on Turkey (2011), Article 82. p. 30.

108
 Ibid.

109
 YILMAZ, Önder. “Dışişleri: Azınlık sayısı 89 bin”. Ankara; Milliyet Newspaper, December 12, 2008.

http://www.milliyet.com.tr/disisleri--azinlik-sayisi--font-color--red-----bin--font-/siyaset/haberdetay/12.12.2008/1027207/default.htm




110
 Ibid. (The similar data for Jews and Greeks as non-Muslim minorities can be also found on the same news.)

111
 European Parliament Report on the 1999 Regular Report from the Commission on Turkey's Progress Towards Accession. October 19, 2000. pp.8.


112
 Liberté pour l’Histoire (“Freedom for History”) is an association, which was founded in 2005 against to political intervention in the assessment of events of the past. As their first appeal, Appeal 2005 was signed by a thousand historians.

http://www.lph-asso.fr/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=2&Itemid=13&lang=en



113
 Turkey warns France over Armenian genocide law. EurActiv News: December 19, 2011.

http://www.euractiv.com/enlargement/turkey-warns-france-armenian-gen-news-509807



114
 SAMUEL, Henry. “France and Turkey in war of words over 1915 massacre of Armenians” Paris, The Telegraph: December 21, 2011.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/history/world-war-two/8970700/France-and-Turkey-in-war-of-words-over-1915-massacre-of-Armenians.html




115
 French Senate Passes Armenian Genocide Law. BBC News UK: January 23, 2012.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-16677986



116
 French court overturns Armenian genocide denial law. CNN News: February 28, 2012.

http://edition.cnn.com/2012/02/28/world/europe/france-armenia-genocide



117
 Charter of Fundamental Rights of the European Union. 2010. p: 391 – 395

http://bookshop.europa.eu/en/consolidated-versions-of-the-treaty-on-european-union-and-the-treaty-on-the-functioning-of-the-european-union-pbQC3209190/?CatalogCategoryID=cOwKABstC3oAAAEjeJEY4e5L



118
 Convention for the Protection of Human Rights and Fundamental Freedoms. 2010. p: 5 – 14

http://www.echr.coe.int/Documents/Convention_ENG.pdf



119
 The citation can be found in both as Article 11 on Charter of Fundamental Rights of the European Union (2010: 394) and Article on 10 Convention for the Protection of Human Rights and Fundamental Freedoms (2010: 11).

120
 The speech of Patrick Devedjian was quoted from the documentary named “Hangi Avrupa?” (From 25th minute to 26.33) which was televised on national TV (TRT) in Turkey, 2008. As the producer and one of the authors of the text of the documentary, Banu Avar was published a book (in 2007) with the same name of the documentary that based on her interviews, experiences and researches.

121

Oppenheimer, David B., Why France Needs to Collect Data on Racial Identity - In a French Way. Hastings International and Comparative Law Review, Vol. 31, No. 2, 2008; UC Berkeley Public Law Research Paper No. 1236362. p.736–737. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1236362


122
 “Republican People’s Party was established by Mustafa Kemal Atatürk on 9 September 1923 with the name “People’s Party”. The name of the party was changed to “Republican People’s Party” in 1935. In 1927, CHP adopted “Republicanism”, “Populism”, “Nationalism”, and “Secularism” as the four main principles of the Party. “Etatism” and “Revolutionism” were introduced in 1935, bringing the number of principles to six. The six arrows depicted in the Party logo refer to these six principles.” (Party History of CHP, Party Records)

http://www.chp.org.tr/en/?page_id=67




123
 Jorge Blanco Villalta, ATATÜRK, trans. by William Campbell. Ankara: Türk Tarih Kurumu Basımevi, 1982. p. 388



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