Title of paper

7. Impacts of climate change in Namibia

7.1. Vulnerability to climate change

Vulnerability to climate change is the degree to which geophysical, biological and socio-economic systems are susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse impacts of climate change (IPCC, 2007). Vulnerability to environmental change does not only depend on change in frequency or duration of climatic conditions, but also on the capacity of the system to respond adequately to those changes.
For the socio-economic sector in Namibia, household income, income diversification, availability of labour and the health status of household members are factors that determine vulnerability. Population growth exacerbates pressure on land and water resources. Poverty, lack of income and lack of employment opportunities greatly exacerbate the vulnerability of households as these factors substantially constrain access to productive resources. In combination with environmental conditions and the impact of the HIV/AIDS pandemic, these factors constrain agricultural production and food security. Ultimately they contribute to limited adaptive capacity and vulnerability. External factors such as the existence of formal and informal social support networks, the availability and quality of health services, and prices of farm inputs and outputs further influence the capacity to cope with and recover from climate shocks.
The vulnerability to climate change differs for various socio-economic groups in Namibia, as the respective buffering capacity to deal with climatic shocks differs markedly. There are also considerable differences in vulnerability between regions. In this regard it should be noted that the impact of poverty and HIV/AIDS may reverse relatively favourable environmental conditions (e.g. in Caprivi). In general, however, in a society where so many households are dependent on subsistence farming with constrained access to productive resources amongst the poorer segments of society, it is a matter of concern that the capacity for social organization and support in communities in various regions of the country appears to be dwindling.

7.2 Climate change impacts in key sectors

7.2.1 Water resources

Namibia is a semi to semi arid country with limited water resources. The projected temperature increases will result in evaporation and evapotranspiration increases in the range of 5-15%, further reducing water resource availability and dam yields (DRFN, 2008). The agricultural sector uses about 75% of all water use, and the Green Scheme is likely to add another 80% above current irrigation abstraction.
A reduction of 10-20% in rainfall by 2045-2065 over the Angolan catchments of the Zambezi, Kavango, Cuvelai and Kunene rivers is expected to lead to a reduction in runoff and drainage in these river systems by +/- 25%. The impacts of projected climate changes on runoff, peak flows, and sustainable dam yields for the Fish River basin were modelled in 2008 and the interpretation of the results was limited due to uncertainties in the models, particularly the climate models. Within these limitations, there are signs that runoff may increase in the far South of the country, whereas this is less clear for the central-southern area of Hardap.
Wetlands are likely to provide reduced ecosystem services such as water retention, flood attenuation and water purification, negatively affecting rural livelihoods and tourism. The mouths of the Kunene and Orange rivers are likely to be affected. The Orange River mouth is an important global wetland protecting an abundance of bird life. The reed beds and tidal mud-flats at the river mouth sustain huge numbers of resident and migrant birds. Climate change poses serious implications for maintenance of the biodiversity of the wetland. Floodplains in the Caprivi and oshanas (ephemeral rivers and pans formed in the shallow depressions of the Cuvelai system in the north) remain particularly vulnerable, as smaller areas will be inundated, and because they may dry out more rapidly due to increased evaporation. The Okavango delta may be strongly affected in similar ways, as a result of which it may potentially shift to a seasonal river.

Due to uncertainties with regard to the relationships between rainfall and runoff in arid environments such as Namibia, only preliminary deductions can be made around the implications for groundwater recharge. Literature suggests that groundwater recharge may suffer a reduction of 30-70% across Namibia; a potential exception could be found in the recharge of alluvial aquifers that have their origins in central areas of Namibia, where more late summer convective rainfall can be expected by the middle of the 21st century (a trend that can moreover already be observed).

7.2.2 Agriculture

The agricultural sector is critical to the subsistence base of a large section of Namibia’s society. The dualism of the sector, with its marked differences in access to credit, markets and inputs, accentuates the socio-economic vulnerabilities of rural dwellers in Namibia. While the impact of climate change will be felt across all farming communities, being rich or poor, communal or commercial, poor people living in marginalised areas will be most severely affected. A complex interaction of socio-economic stressors in subsistence farming households exists (poor health, inequitable access to land, gender inequality, population growth, and increasing competition for shared resources), and climate change induced impacts will only add to this situation.
Crop models for potential yields and planting windows for the mid-21st century for Namibia’s main staple grains, maize and pearl millet, for Rundu and Grootfontein, yielded largely inconclusive results owing to model uncertainties. The potential for crop production in the Grootfontein area may increase. The success of the flagship Green Scheme (GS), which aims to encourage agricultural and rural economic development within suitable irrigation areas, will be highly dependent on the provision of water resources (particularly the Kavango river). Under climate change, with a projected decrease in rainfall of 10%, proposed Green Scheme sites may experience reductions in perennial drainage of 30-60%. This may affect the viability of the scheme with implications for national economic development and food security.

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  Impacts of climate change on the livestock sector will depend on:
  
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  grazing availability, quality, and bush encroachment;
  
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  livestock production and reproduction responses;
  
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  water availability and demand and
  
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  disease and parasite impact.
  

Significant changes in vegetation structure and function are projected, with the dominant vegetation type grassy savanna losing its spatial dominance to desert and arid shrubland vegetation types, and increases in bush encroachment in the north-eastern regions. Reductions in vegetation cover have negative implications for grazing.

7.2.3 Coastal zone and fisheries

Namibia with its long coastline and important fisheries sector is vulnerable to the impacts of sea level rise. Under a short-term (2030) sea level rise scenario, damages are likely to be limited, except for early damages to, and disruption of the economically important Walvis Bay port infrastructure and activities.
The Pelican Point sandspit⁴ is protecting Walvis Bay town against possible impacts of climate change such as inundation, water logging and flooding that may be due to possible rise in sea level. Climate change projections indicate that the sandspit will still be in place by 2030 but it is not clear what is expected beyond 2030 - a good reason to keep monitoring changes. The other three major coastal towns would only suffer relatively minor damage to fixed infrastructure and property, compared to the serious impacts on Walvis Bay.
Breeding sites on coastal islands would be at particular risk of flooding from sea level rise. In the longer term, the effects of sea level rise on primary production in coastal systems may largely be dependent upon variations in the nutrient concentrations caused by changes in ocean current patterns and upwelling regimes associated with the Benguela system.

7.2.4 Community Based Natural Resources Management (CBNRM) and tourism

Climate change could affect the growing nature-based tourism industry in Namibia directly by impacting on the tourism resource base, through changes in habitats, landscape characteristics and vegetation cover, biodiversity loss, decreasing water availability, increased frequency and severity of climate hazards, coastal erosion, and increased incidence of vector borne diseases⁵. Projected declines in vegetation cover and significant change in vegetation structure and function would impact on tourism. Beneficiaries of the CBNRM programme in conservancies and forest reserves, who are developing sustainable livelihoods based on resource management and tourism, stand to be severely affected by any such changes. On the other hand, shifts in land use systems away from livestock production systems based on exotic species, toward indigenous biodiversity production systems, may reduce impacts, and possibly even benefit the tourism potential.
The indirect impacts of climate change on the future of the tourism sector are likely to be of greater relevance. Significant shifts are occurring in international consumer awareness and attitudes, with increasing concerns regarding the carbon footprint of long-haul air travel to distant tourism destinations. This is resulting in greater consumer reluctance to engage in such travel for tourism purposes and greater willingness-to-pay for tourism products and services that are environmentally friendly and have a smaller carbon footprint.

7.2.5 Economy

An economic analysis of the potential impacts of climate change on the Namibian economy (GDP and income distribution), based on six scenarios of changes in the agriculture and fisheries sectors (being strongly climate-sensitive), was conducted as part of the second national communication.
Under a best-case scenario, agricultural impacts would be partly offset by improved water distribution. There would be no impact on fisheries and the overall GDP would fall by only about 1%.
Under a worst-case scenario, large-scale shifts in climate zones would reduce agricultural and fishing outputs, and the overall GDP would fall by almost 6% over 20 years.
However, this estimate constitutes only a fraction of possible climate change impacts because it considers only two economic sectors that are directly affected. Furthermore, climate change impacts will hit the poor hardest, with employment opportunities constrained and a substantial decline in wages, especially for unskilled labour. Even under the best-case scenarios, subsistence farming will fall sharply. In the worst-case scenario for agriculture, labour intensive livestock farming is hit hard, and while high-value irrigated crop production could thrive, employment creation in this area would be minimal. Thus, even under the best-case scenario, a quarter of the population will need to find new livelihoods. Displaced rural populations are likely to move to cities, which could cause income for unskilled labour to fall by 12 to 24% in order to absorb the new workers. Income distribution in Namibia is already one of the most uneven in the world and this inequality is likely to increase, with significant implications for future social cohesion, if no counteracting policies are put in place.