Water research commission

Mangoes

Mangoes are an important economic crop to South African economy. Although, South Africa is a small exporter of mangoes, its domestic market is significant in the processing market for bottled juice and canned drinks, and it is often consumed fresh by a significant segment of the population. The total volumes of production for mangos during the past ten years has decreased over the last 10 years, though the total production value has stayed relatively constant at between R150 and 200m over the same period.

DAFF (2012a) describes the industry:

A total volume of 50 592 tons of mangos was produced in South Africa during the 2010/11 production season. This represented a 2% increase from the 2009/10 volume of 51 702 tons. The highest volume produced during the last decade was 89 464 tons in the 2004/05 season. Considering data for the past decade, the 2001/02, 2004/05 and 2007/08 seasons experienced bumper crops. There was a 40% drop in quantities produced between 2001/02 and 2010/11 production seasons. The decline in production over the years is an indication that the area under mango production has not been increasing during the period under review. (p4)

Approximately 84% of the total crop is planted under micro, drip, sprinkler or flood irrigation. It is estimated that approximately 20% of the producers produce 80% of the total annual crop (DAFF 2012a).

Direct and indirect employment is substantial in the mango production, processing and support industries in the areas where mangos are grown. During 2011 this was estimated at 2 900 with approximately 17 400 dependents (DAFF 2012a).

The annual mango crop is processed into dried mangos, achar (spicy mango chutney) and juice and sold fresh through the fresh produce markets. A relatively small and decreasing amount of fresh fruit is exported, namely 1449 tons, of a total of 13,055 tons in 2011 (DAFF 2012a).

Figure 51 describes the nature of South African Mango value chain.

As a large proportion of the fruit remains unprocessed (fresh fruit) or semi processed (dried), the question of quality is important. The appearance and taste of the fruit is paramount in its acceptance and consumption by the market, as well as the price. The food value chain may be affected as a result of lower production volumes, leading to higher prices, but on the other hand, lower quality would result in decreased prices.

Figure 51: The mango value chain (Source: DAFF, 2012)

According to DAFF (2012a), “Climatic phenomena like El Niño and La Niña create periods of under or oversupply of mangos on the markets, due to their influence on production i.e. rain (storm), drought damage and hot or cold temperatures during flowering” (p38). Studies have shown that processing of mango locally into juice and other locally made products have received significant attention as opposed to the export market for mango (NAMC, 2013). This has significant implication on the entire mango value chain market. The reduction in export market for mango is partly due to the nature of risks involved in the handling and storage of mango for export market.

DAFF (2012a) also states that:

“due to the cyclical drought/rain periods (5 to 10 years), mangos planted in different localities do not produce the same quality results. In dry cycles the wet areas close to the escarpment have good quality with low disease pressure and good yields. During wet cycles, areas further from the escarpment, dry areas experience less disease pressure. Higher rainfall causes higher disease levels of Anthracnose and Soft Brown Rot. Low lying areas with extended periods of night time temperatures below 8C are unfavourable for fruit set with most cultivars. Wind plays an important role on the spreading of diseases like Bacterial Black Spot. The ideal planting would therefore be in a windless, low rainfall area, with night time temperatures of 10-15C and daytime temperatures of 20-35C, with sufficient underground or canal water supply systems for irrigation.” (p38)

The Blyde river irrigation area, where this study was focused lies thus in an ideal position to grow mangoes, but climate change impacts will threaten this.

The results of the climate scenarios from the five GCM indicate that climate variability and change may pose a threat to mango (and citrus) production in the Olifants East area.

A decrease in yield and quality of mango (and citrus) was projected by the modelling results. The projected decrease may impact the entire mango food value chain.

Adaptations by farmers currently involve the introduction of shade nets, but future options may be in irrigation management changes (Pavel et al. 2004).

7.4.1 Actors in the South African mango value chain and their exposure to CC impacts

1. 
   Producers
   

• 
  High input cost/land value ratio as a result of increases in variable costs of production resulting in greater production risks.
  
• 
  Increased costs of mitigating impacts of high temperatures, such as shade cloth, and irrigation technique enhancements.
  

2. 
   Processors
   

• 
  Increased risks during packaging and transport due to increased temperatures.
  
• 
  Higher costs of air conditioning and cold chain maintenance
  
• 
  Market supply remains a weather/climate related variable. If the timing of the mango ripening period is altered, then the profitability of the mangoes reaching the market can be affected. It has been determined that the Christmas/New Year holiday period has the highest demand for mangoes. Missing this period would have serious effects for the producers/processors.
  

3. 
   External input providers (non-mango raw material, transport, packaging etc)
   

• 
  Risks to power supply ( and knock on risk to transport), due to increased temperature and more intense rainfall in electricity production areas
  
• 
  Access and availability of water leading to price increases
  
• 
  Increased temperatures and moisture increase demand for pesticides and thus costs
  

4. 
   Wholesalers/Retailers
   

• 
  Distribution risks due to transport cost and threats, and increased risk of spoilage due to increased temperatures and variable, possibly more intense, rainfall. See also market timing as for producers/processors
  
• 
  Increased costs of raw materials leads to higher selling prices, opening up competition to export markets by other countries.
  

5. 
   Socio-economic issues
   

• 
  The major risk in decreasing production is the consequent reduction in seasonal and permanent labour, as mango farming and processing is highly labour intensive.
  
• 
  Any risks carried through to retailers will be reflected in the price and supply of fruit. As it is not a staple food, the risks are relatively small.
  

The current tendency for farmers to concentrate more on local market could translate to a more profitable venture locally, but reduced foreign exchange nationally for mango supply chain. A lower yield of mango due to climate change/variability at the Oliphant East farms may necessarily not result into low income for the actors within mango value chain, and further study would confirm this.

Hence, beyond the farm gate, there are two possibilities for the mango value chain with respect to the linkages between vulnerability and adaptation:

Reduced yield due to vulnerability at the farm level may not necessarily translate to reduced incomes for the actors within the mango value chain, if they can utilise processing and immediate distribution for the local market, as opposed to storage for export market. Therefore, when farmers see themselves as part of the longer chain beyond the farm gate they could mitigate their loss resulting from reduced yield.

Adaptation to climate change/variability for mango producers at the Olifants East area could be in the form of strong social networks with other actors within the mango value chain. Access to quality information could also be explored. Crop diversification could also serve as a means of adaptation, such that when there is a reduced yield in mango production, citrus and other fruits in that category could be explored as alternatives.

8.