Appendix 4.2: Respondent Comments to Round 1, Section 2
This appendix presents the comments made by respondents in Section 2 of Round 1 Delphi. As before, the comments from the survey are presented first for each scenario, then in smaller print, the comments from the RT Delphi.
2.01 Consider: Global GDP? World depressions? Recessions? Growth spurts? Accelerations? Scenario 1: Business as Usual: Moderate to high economic growth until oil prices go so high they cause recessions, and depressions
Current cycle of strong growth up to 2010, followed of strong depression due to financial crisis and scarcity of oil
Agree – most likely “linear scenario”
Likely, but the global economy seems to be getting less sensitive to oil prices. So instead of several recessions and depressions over the next 10 years, maybe we will build up to a monster crash around 2015
Also greenhouse will make it even worse
No, economy can work with high prices
Labor market should also be considered.
New technologies prevent peak before 2070
Agree, although earlier recessions may of course be caused by non-energy related events
Before that happens the countries will shift to natural gas, renewable energy of biofuels.
Realistically oil prices will grow in response to global economic growth, slowing it rather than causing recessions. Slowdown lasts <5 years after which global oil prices stabilize for the indefinite future with shale oil, synthetic fuels, etc
Agree except that it goes to scenario 4
Agree, thought other influences besides oil prices may also spur recessions - e.g. global political unrest
I don't see this extraordinary role of the oil prices; the great recession we face will be due to developments on the financial markets
Oil intensity to economic growth is on the decline. The oil prices are also not expected to go up all the time as other viable and economic energy sources may become available by 2020.
There is some differentiation needed for the world regions, i.e. high growth rates in emerging markets but stagnation in Europe or the like Oil prices will accelerate as more and more people want to use it and the supply dwindles inexorably.
The price of oil will eventually go so high that a repeat of the inflation/recession phenomena will occur to reduce demand and lower prices again
If the economy cycles, as it has over the years (business as usual) then a slowdown or growth will result in a slowdown in energy consumption, and a drop in oil prices.
Scenario 2: Environmental Backlash : Moderate to low economic growth, oil price fluctuates with environmental actions, supply disruptions
And possibly depression
Oil price could be reduced due to alternatives, lower demand
Could be same as Business as Usual
Disagree: the environmental pressure will facilitate the development of efficient technologies which decrease oil dependency, supply disruptions might occur, but will not be large enough to decrease economic growth, moderate to high economic growth similar to the business as usual case
Environmental actions will be primarily compensatory (fossil fuels being replace by bio-fuels) and this would not reduce the economic growth
Larger incentives for higher productivity also benefits economic growth
No. Moderate and high prices, without interruptions and with smaller flow.
Moderate or low growth but without interruptions.
Agree with first half, but unlikely that oil price fluctuates with environmental actions
I agree to the moderate growth of the economy, but it has minor risk of interruption.
Disagree – environmentalists will never be able to achieve such a position
Unlikely for the environmentalists to achieve this level of impact (sadly!). Effective terrorist disruptions will not be due to environmentalists, but fundamentalists.
Some value, but greenhouse will still cause great problems
Agree, only if people realize environmental worth and take action in that regard. Necessary curb in demand
Moderate economic growth, oil price fluctuates with environmental actions and oil peak, oil and gas supply disruptions, accelerated phase-in of renewable energy sources by 2020
Unlikely that environmental policies will significantly curtail worldwide energy demand.
New technologies prevent peak before 2060
Agree - but not just because of "environmental groups getting more organized" but because of increasingly compelling evidence of global warming affecting consumer and corporate behavior
Possibly increased economic growth due to rationalized taxation, reduced international conflict, and reduced power in the hands of oil companies and car companies hence improved mass transit. Short term Europe gains vs. US
The environmental issue, pressure not affects the prices and it seems it will not do it.
True in countries where environmental issues carry weight
More or less agree unless its the kind of backlash caused by Europe freezing or a Miami Katrina
Possibility of higher economic growth in leading "sustainability countries", i.e. Finland, which are exporters of new energy saving technologies
Too much environmental regulation, improperly administered could slow growth and maybe even trigger recession
Scenario 3: High Tech: New tech and great efficiencies prevent oil peak prior to 2050
Unlikely, oil may peak before 2020 but technologies for smooth transitions will be available
Moderate to low even if great efficiencies prevent oil peak prior to 2050
Agree, but oil peak would be reached by 2060.
Only if they come soon enough.
Not necessarily, since alternative technologies will be developed that will contribute to restrain the demand and use of petroleum.
Occasional technological collapses (grid failures, unexpected environmental consequences such as massive algal blooms or toxic waste excursions) because everything is very tightly managed
Perhaps not; technological innovations may be made elsewhere, not in oil tech.
Disagree, even with greater efficiencies oil peak will be reached within next decade
agree, but by then petroleum already would have begun to be irrelevant
not likely with oil assumption but with alternative forms of energy and use of energy; growth as business as usual scenario
china and India press this before 2050
Moderate to high economic growth with recessions caused by disruptive technology shakeouts
Yes, economic growth still expected to be moderate to high
Technology does not solve problems: it continues having problems of economic instability and low global growth.
Agree, although this scenario is not plausible as a separate one. Should be linked with the
depends on consumption scenario China and India
OK. However, the economic dynamics will change significantly as blind consumerism is replaced by quality of life as a/the major driver.
Disagree, too much inertia even if we hurry. But we can survive this.
New tech stimulates the economy. Lots of possibilities here. An apollo energy program. Unexpected breakthroughs like: Deep Earth Continuous Gas Generation, Cold Fusion, Solar Harvesting in the Sahara, Really Cheap Electrolysis, Simple Albedo Modification, Space Elevators
Scenario 4: Political Turmoil Low economic growth, recessions/ depressions
Definitely. High oil prices and volatile prices mean economic decline
Agree + strong oil price volatility
Disagree, as technology will make up for it.
unequal growth of countries from high to low and depression; the mean figure not a good measure of the situation quality globally
Agree – second most plausible scenario
Unlikely. Many of the major 1st world economies benefit significantly from war and arms build up. Indeed their economies will flourish, hiding the negative impact on the poorest communities.
Not if political support is directed towards environment - balance in this regard, yes, if directed solely to economic growth
A given, unfortunately.
It will depend on the changes done before this happens.
Likely
Worse. Nuclear materials to sub national groups, from dissidents to drug salesmen. After one first use... logic does not justify faith this species is immune to extinction.
Agree , with oil disruptions
Scientific development not directed at energy issues
China enters serious recession due to high oil prices and their low economic output per gallon. Liquidates US treasuries, sending US into serious inflationary cycle. Global economy destabilized
It will depend on the economic feasibility of new technologies. If oil doesn't have a substitute, it will be available in mid west more than in the rest of the world. Then an international political crisis will arise.
One might question - even if cynically. whether political turmoil leads to recession everywhere, see the phenomenon of war profits, war business etc
Politics can screw it up. Why can't politicians see we need a cohesive energy program, NOW
2.02. Demand - per region and/or economic grouping (qualitative)Oil intensity to Economic growth is on the decline. The oil prices are also not expected to go up all the time as other viable and economic energy sources may become available by 2020.
Scenario 1: Business as Usual: China and India continue to drive prices and supply of oil
Yes, Oil demands expected to be high from these countries
China and India do not lead the petroleum provision, but the demand
developed countries too
2030 Agree
Disagree. Social gaps need to be reduced
This is silly. The US and industrial countries do this
Partly agree- their influence in short term not as great
China and India continue to drive prices and demand of oil
At least until 2030
They will continue to increase consumption
Sort of. But demand rise is robust, global.
Very likely
As oil demand increases, the remaining areas with large reserves will increase in political power, but could also be come threatened by those struggling to gain long term contracts such as US, China, India, and Japan.
Environmental action may not reduce demand mostly in Europe and US
Environmental action reduces demand mostly in Europe and US
Niche markets would emerge in Latin America.
Agree, but overall global demand reduction won’t happen as it will be absorbed by new economic powers in Asia and Latin America.
Also in China and India, because of local environment problem
Environmental action reduces demand mostly in Europe and US, and slows demand increases elsewhere
Demand decreases only in Europe
Agree, prices push the same
But with spillover effects (technology transfer) to developing countries
US environmental action will be weak to reduce the increasing demand
Makes use more effective and supplies more diversified
Scenario 3: High TechTechnology advances affect mostly First World demand and usage
Technology advances may not affect much First World demand and usage
Technology advances affect mostly First World demand and usage
India would be one of these main countries.
Agree – but there is a chance, that China and India are leapfrogging
China, India, Japan, Korea, Russia, develop their own technologies for urban use
No. China is comfortable with new tech. PV, Wind, Solar
But with spillover effects (technology transfer) to developing countries
Agree, with reduction
Not necessarily. High tech developments spread fast today.
Alternative technologies may penetrate to reduce oil demands stemming from energy security concerns
Disagree: Carbon capture and PV renewables are important for developing countries.
Include China
Plausible, but solely together with the 4th scenario
OK. They’ll reduce dependence on fossil fuels by 1st world economies. But, they’ll also stimulate dramatic growth (from low bases) across the developing world.
What new tech? Demand will far outstrip supply.
Physically impossible
Unlikely!!!
Unlikely
Disagree to some extent - even with major new tech breakthroughs there will be a point where markets overreact to the evidence that oil reserves are lower than currently publicized
High economic growth, accelerated phase-in of renewable energy sources by 2020 prevents major recession by oil and gas peak
Questionable
Best scenario
As is the case now
Scenario 4: Political Turmoil Wars consume energy resources and prevent development of new sources
Agree, except for saving / efficiency measures
Wars consume energy resources
Wars consume energy resources and prevent development of new sources
Disagree. As wars usually and/or always promote economic and technological growth.
Disagree, war would encourage development of alternative sources
Not significantly
Agree, but wars also stimulate technological innovations which would take longer in peace time
Disagree on development of new sources in Europe and US
New resources will continue to be developed in spite of wars/conflicts.
Disagree. War may force the countries to resort to new sources/technologies
Disagree. Conflicts in the developing countries might stir acceleration of development of new technologies
Disagree. Wars always foster R & D development
Maybe, but the impact will be minimal on a global scale.
Agree. Industry also runs unchecked due to poor capacity to develop and enforce regulation or offer incentives
True for conventional energy sources, but may spur alternative sources
War may spur new technology
2.03. Economies successfully adapt to factor of 50 percent increase in energy prices without undue inflation
Scenario 1: Business as UsualNot initially, but adjustments by 2015
Never happen
Gradual adjustments by 2020
Agree. Energy cost has usually never been an obstacle to economic growth
Happening already
Adjustments for 2030
Disagree: adjustment later compared to scenario 2
Agree, process will be gradual
Adjustments later, perhaps 2020
In principal agree with all; but adjustments might be even faster
Don't agree on inflation
Seems to be happening “initially”!
New investments are energy efficient, sunk capital (25 year old + plants) are not as efficient, over time the economies of the globe are becoming more efficient as old capital assets mature and are abandoned. The adaptation will be faster than 2015.
Slight possibility
Economy has adapted
Possible
Semantic problem. It's been a lot more than 50% in the past 2 years already, economically cost-able but bearable if politics fixed. Trend by 2025 is much more than 50%.
It's mainly a question of price increases of fossil energies are part of inflation; I don't agree as the Bank of England does
Not sustainable unless technology efficiencies
I don't understand why, but the recent price run up in the US, $3 gasoline had little economic affect.
Scenario 2: Environmental Backlash: Inflation occurs but adjustments by 2020
Disagree: adjustment occurs earlier compared to scenario 1
Agree – for developed countries only
Small inflation
2025
Or latter on
2010
2010
There are inflationary regional particularities
Not plausible scenario
Disagree – little inflation will occur.
adjustments faster due to better policy
difficult to postpone so long
Like 1, except adjustment to smaller GNP, depending on how scenario interpreted.
Disruptive
Scenario 3: High Tech Prices moved lower by 2020 not requiring adjustment
Can adapt by 2015 not requiring adjustment
optimistic
No, cost of energy increase may be slowed at best
low probability
Stabilized prices but not moving down
disagree, not by 2020 but may be after by 2050
Business is business, profits have priorities
2010
2010
Prices will not move lower, will continue to rise.
Not possible due to increasing energy demand
Disagree – prices will never become lower again
Suspect the impact of more alternatives will be price stability rather than significantly lower prices.
Emerging third world can jump ahead by adapting tech advances
Technological advances shift demand from non-renewable to renewable energy sources
No, there will be a kind of leap frogging by DCs
Agree but it also affects 3rd world
Not probable. Will also affect emerging countries soon.
Oil, conventional gas still way up, but lower electricity & alternates compensate, economic leap on Schumpeter scale
Scenario 4: Political Turmoil: Inflation occurs as the result of both energy cost and conflicts
No inflation as demand drops
The economies do not adapt, disruptions
Inflation is a good thing to those economies which benefit from it and a bad thing only to others; energy and conflict may be balancing factors of inflation! But globally I agree.
2030 Inflation would increase significantly due to war coupled with higher energy prices
Agree – second highly plausible scenario
In affected developing regions, yes. But 1st world economies will profit with little inflation.
It will depend on the changes done before this happens.
Values continue to deteriorate Rich get richer Consumerism defines status
Extremely important. People consume according to their ideas of what they "have to have.” The US with 5% of the world population consumes 30% of resources.
No. Current values promote quick gratification, Western accumulation of material wealth.
Low
Moderate to none
Low
Growth declines and reverses as scenario goes to 4
In business as usual, values are as usual too
Scenario 2: Environmental Backlash Moderate to high conservation
Yes this will happen because of prices
Moderate to high conservation
High
The values are polarized regionally
Agree, combined with new technology.
Considerable change: moderated demand in developed countries
Chasm between rich and poor widens dramatically
Yes (definition of status undergoes change- luxury to efficient)
Agree; disagree with conservation
Important changes in the human values
2020
Disagree - impossible
Environmental values grow (at first) – little change in wealth and status dynamics
Yes, small grouping of people on the planet.
Not likely for long time despite backlash
Moderate
Moderate
Don’t agree
Depends on how/why. Naderworld could decay into neo-medieval and slow path to scenario 4.
Moderate
Scenario 3: High TechModerate to high conservation
Technology is key to conservation
As result of enhanced telecommunications – thus environmental education - world can moderate consumption
HIGH revalorization of human beings
High to material welfare
Depends on type of tech. And help of mass media
High
Disagree - impossible
Significant changes: Quality of life values start to displace consumerism. Global communities collaborate in solving problems (mostly electronically) superseding national and corporate interests.
Unlikely
Also possible
Slight possibility by 2020, greater by 2050
Likely if technologies allow for adjustments
Vast increase in income possible, and, more important, reduction in fear, if education as well as energy tech is advanced, paid for
Some adjustment still needed around 2015
Scenario 4: Political TurmoilLittle to none
Moderate to low conservation
Perhaps to the worse, human rights threatened everywhere
No, changes will be moderate to high
Negative change
High to straight religion or other fundamental attitudes
Little
Human values will become more divided based on political and religious, not necessarily economic factors.
Values continue to deteriorate Rich get richer Nationalism and Consumerism define status
Could decrease if countries in turmoil abandon technology
Worsening
Little
Little to none remains.
Disagree - war/famine etc. Causes people to reevaluate priorities. Look at the effect 9/11 had on the people of New York. A move towards more value on families etc.
Agree, except for a very few
Possible xenophobia, delayed horror if wars turn genocidal in backlash against WMD terror
