Abyan Assessment Report 8-9 July 2012

3.2. Sector Analysis

Situation Overview

On 12 May Yemeni Army with tribes allied with authorities launched a large-scale offensive operations against Ansar al-Sharia aiming to push Pro-Al Qaida militias out of the cities. In mid-June, the Defense Ministry announced that the militants had been driven out of the governorate, including the cities of Zinjibar and Ja'ar, where the militants had practice control over a year during the political unrest.

The fierce fighting, which involve sometimes strikes, has led to a severe deterioration of the humanitarian situation in Abyan governorate. It hampered the ability of the international humanitarian community and among them ICRC to deliver urgent relief aids³.
As a direct impact of the military operation in Abyan, the humanitarian situation deteriorated more as the delivery of basic social services disrupted more. The vulnerability of different groups exacerbated more. Low presence of law enforcement forces and sometimes the disappearance of law enforcement limit if not prevent access of humanitarian organizations and limited its ability to work. The delivery modality now is through implementing partners or through contractors.
Based on the findings of the assessment⁴, WASH (Water, Toilets & Keeping Clean) was identified as a “serious problem” in the assessed communities. Health (Health Care and Physical Care for under five years of age or over five years of age) was identified as a “serious problem” in the assessed communities. Over 80% of the assessed communities identified food as a “serious problem” in their communities. Over 70% of the communities identified income or livelihood as a “serious problem”. This can be considered as a direct impact of the above described factors.
Moreover, Most of the contributing factors relating to a problem being described as a “serious problem” in modules two and three attributed it to availability and the military operations as well as destruction of the infrastructure and security situation can justify this. The second factor is limited economic resources. This factor is in direct relation to the level of poverty people in Abyan are suffering and extent of working opportunities people can find since Ansar al-Shari'a , took over the main cities of the governorate. Finally, physical/logistic constraints and security constraints was the third factor and this lead to another findings appeared in the findings of the assessment.
Unpredictable, most of the protection issues were not identified by the informants as “serious problems” except for safety and displacement from home. One of the reasons was limited time available for interviewers to explain the difference between protection and security. This is considered one of the major gaps appeared in this report. The other reason is the time of conducting the interviews. The field visits were conducted right after the declaration of the military operations. The people at that time did not consider the protection as series issue; as declaring victory affected people psychologically and put them in a positive prediction for future, which by itself guided their perceptions toward livelihood and daily living concerns.
Nevertheless, non-state groups pro and anti government have active presence in Abyan. In addition the political dynamic in South governorates is presenting threats to physical safety of IDPs and other vulnerable groups due to potential political unrest as a result of separation calls. The continuous tension between host communities and IDPs is considered another threatening factor; this can be merged with the historical conflicts between Aden and Abyan. Absence of governmental public service and governmental law order apparatus in Abyan effectively present another challenge, which represents hazards for the legal protection for civilians in Abyan. Lack of public service and governmental social security network operations in Abyan also will weakening the central authorities influence and increase the protection concerns especially for marginalized people who are considered important social segment. Finally, chronic vulnerabilities, protection concerns, economic decline and increase of cost of living all will feed the potential strengthening of organized crime groups and terrorist groups, which by itself consider a major hazard and important protection concern.
IASC defined complex emergency as: “a humanitarian crisis in a country, region or society where there is total or considerable breakdown of authority resulting from internal or external conflict and which requires an international response that goes beyond the mandate or capacity of any single and/or ongoing UN country programme”. In general, this is perfectly fitting the Abyan context. However, this doesn't reflect the driven for the crisis. Taking a look on the Active Learning Network for Accountability and Performance in humanitarian Action; will add to the framework the crisis drivers. ALNAP definition for complex political emergency as: "A situation with complex social, political and economic origins which involves the breakdown of state structures, the disputed legitimacy of host authorities, the abuse of human rights and possibly armed conflict, that creates humanitarian needs. The term is generally used to differentiate humanitarian needs arising from conflict and instability from those that arise from natural disasters."
The crisis in Abyan does not involve breakdown of the state; on the contrary it is a direct consequence of state's efforts to return its authorities to the central government. However, its complexity is appearing on combining political, administrative, security, social and economic factors together to form the direct reason for affected people suffering. The direct impact of these factors on people is deteriorating their humanitarian situation with increase concerns on their protection status. Therefore, in Abyan international humanitarian community is facing humanitarian crisis with overarching protection concern.
In addition to the deterioration of the humanitarian situation, the military campaign success in defeating Ansar al-Shari’a but it does not lead to eliminate antigovernment existence and restrict the presence and activities of non-state actors or even control it. The secure social network is still existing for Al-Qaeda fighters who are currently seeking refuge in the peripheral tribal controlled regions. Al-Qaeda fighters also spread over the different cities seeking revenge. Therefore, the threats of Al Qaeda and Ansar al- Shari'a is not eliminating completely. In brief, the resolution of the political crisis and defeating Ansar al-Shari'a will not end the obstacles in front the political process in country. The transition process which remains largely on track, will directly affected under continuous potential military and security threats. Such threats are spread and existed all over Abyan and can be triggered spontaneously due to:

1: governmental delay in taking the responsibilities of implementing the rule of the law,

2: clashes between armed groups affiliated with Ansar al-Shari'a and pro-governmental tribal groups,

3: potential forcible return for IDPs in Aden and Lahj,

4: mines unexploded ordnances (UXOs) and booby traps at conflict areas

5: continuous shortage in jobs opportunities, deterioration of humanitarian situation and consequently poverty will increase.

According to Abyan and the South Humanitarian and early recovery Response Plan Published in August 2012 by United Nations Humanitarian country team; the fighting in Abyan has displaced nearly 237,000 individuals (39,500 households) and damaged the livelihood of another 180,000-210,000 individuals (30,000-35,000 households). The conflict has had spill-over effects not only in conflict-affected communities but in the southern region as a whole. So the crisis in Abyan impacted not only war non-displaced affected people and IDPs but also host communities in Aden and Lahj as well as refugees.
Conflict in Abyan has severely disrupted the delivery of basic social services, exacerbating widespread and chronic vulnerabilities economic decline and increase of cost of living. Public services, including health care, nutrition, water and sanitation; and security and safety has been suffering from severe serious collapse. The assessment shows serious problems in about 70% of the sectors that demands urgent humanitarian interventions.
Figure 2 shows the frequency of problem areas identified as serious problems in the twelve assessed areas of Zingibar and Khanfar districts. With the exception of safety, separation from family members, access to information, respect, movement between places, and safety or protection from violence within the community, all of the problem areas were considered as serious problems in the communities.