Contributions

Current and projected challenges

Despite the global rate of extreme poverty decreasing from 28% to 11% between 1999 and 2013, poverty levels remain high in SSA and SA¹³. In fact, the actual number of poor in SSA has increased due to population growth. Poverty rates in the semi-arid and sub-humid drylands, the target GLDC agroecologies, are far higher than the continental rates, ranging from 49% in semi-arid SA to 83% in dry sub-humid Eastern Africa¹⁴

(Figure 1b).

Between 2000 and 2015, food security improved on a global scale, but not as fast as poverty alleviation — the global prevalence of undernourishment decreased from 15% to 11% of the world’s population¹⁵. Trends in child malnutrition decreased globally over this same period. However, by 2016, SSA and SA still had the highest prevalence of child stunting: 34% and 36% respectively. Both regions accounted for 77% of the total number of stunted children recorded globally, amounting to about 199 million stunted children. The high prevalence of stunting in these regions indicates inadequate diets, food availability and access.

Looking to the future in 2030, the target date for the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), foresight analysis projects that the global population at risk of hunger will decline from 800 million people worldwide to 600 million, but with climate change slowing progress (Figure 2). By 2030, the number of people at risk of hunger would reach 17% for SSA and 8% for SA; these rates would further reduce by 2050. However, both regions are projected to account for the highest number of people at risk of hunger in 2030 and 2050.

Child wasting is projected to decrease substantially across the world, but the majority of stunted children would still be found in SSA and SA¹⁶. In this context, GLDC crops are high in protein and micronutrients and should be a key contributor to addressing malnutrition. However, foresight projection¹⁷ suggests an increasing deficit between long-term aggregate supply and demand for GLDC crops (Figures 3a and b), especially with grain legumes.

GLDC crops are highly nutritious¹⁸ and fulfill some of the highest nutrition needs in developing countries, and particularly the needs of women and children. The most common micronutrient deficiencies are iron, Vitamin A, iodine and zinc¹⁹. Micronutrient deficiencies have a grave impact worldwide and cause untold suffering, especially on at least half the small children aged between 6 months and five years. Overall more than two billion people are affected²⁰. Most GLDC crops are high in iron; pearl millet is extremely high in iron, zinc and folate with bioavailability studies by Harvest Plus in Africa and India showing that it can reduce anemia²¹. Finger millet has three times the amount of calcium (364mg/100g) as the equivalent weight of milk²². Legumes are particularly high in calcium and protein which are particularly important for growth and development.

To ensure food and nutritional security in GLDC target agroecologies, given the dependence of poor households on agriculture for livelihoods and food security, the supply side constraints in the production of GLDC crops need to be addressed through continued R4D and diffusion of technologies. Meeting this challenge is the driving motivation for investing in CRP-GLDC.

Figure 2: Hunger in 2030 by climate and investment scenario²³. Bars show numbers on the left axis, dots showing shares on the right axis. 2030-NoCC assumes a constant 2005 climate; 2030-CC reflects climate change using RCP 8.5 and the Hadley Climate Model; 2030-COMP assumes climate change plus increased investment in developing countries.

Figure 3a: Supply and demand projection of aggregate GLDC crops in Low Income, Food Deficit Countries with and without climate change; 3b: Projected disaggregated sources of demand of GLDC crops by region in 2025 and 2040 (‘000 MT). Source: IMPACT version 3.3, IFPRI, based on SSP2 with ‘No Climate Change’ (NoCC) and Climate Change (CC) using RCP 8.5 and the Hadley Climate Model..