Европейска схема

1.2 Principles, assumptions and data applied to determine the contribution of installations covered by the Directive

1.2 What principles, assumptions and data have been applied to determine the contribution of the installations covered by the emissions trading Directive (total and sector historical emissions, total and sector forecast emissions, least-cost approach)? If forecast emissions were used, please describe the methodology and assumptions used to develop the forecasts.

Determination of the total quantity of allowances to be allocated

Figures in row “Overall CO₂ emissions from sectors covered by the Scheme” in Table 1 and the next rows represent basic information for determination of emission allowances. Those emissions are allocated to participant and not participating installations, and from them allowances are set aside for both a part of necessary calculative reserves and reserves of emission allowances for later allocation, and the allowances to be allocated under the current allocation plan. In accordance with the requirements of the EU, the NAP plans for equal effort, equal right and equal obligation to changes (increase or reduction) in emission levels for the two groups of emission sources (participants and not participants) and preservation of the correlation of their emissions.

In determining the emissions from sectors covered by the Scheme and installations participating and not participating in the Scheme, the proportion of emissions from installations covered by the Scheme for each sector to the total quantity of emissions from all installations in the respective sectors for the country in 2003 is determined. This proportion is defined as (share) of participants in the scheme for 2003 from total sector emissions. By multiplying emissions planned for the period 2007–2012 (Table 1) by the shares by sectors, the volume of emissions by sectors and total for the county are determined that could be covered by the Scheme from a macroeconomic viewpoint (Table 2). The table shows the two corrections – for early credits and compulsory measures – by which the quantity of allocated allowances is reduced.

Table 2. Quantity of emissions by sectors total for the country, which could be covered by the Scheme from a macroeconomic viewpoint, Gg

Year	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012
Total emissions of GHG from sectors covered by the scheme, Gg CO2	50 743,95	53 020,62	56 814,08	63 927,82	66 935,58	67 834,47
Total CO2 emissions from installations participating in the scheme, Gg CO2	49 470,56	51 669,22	55 486,21	62 616,48	65 755,27	66 596,14
Energy activities, including:
-electric power	22 326,04	22 415,13	24 028,10	27 580,62	30 252,25	29 086,36
-combined production of heat and electric power	8 061,03	8 161,78	8 240,50	8 411,68	6 994,50	7 097,19
-thermal energy – public sector	828,19	871,53	914,87	958,21	1 001,55	1 044,89
-thermal energy for industrial purposes and other CP, incl.:
Production of chemical products and rubber	324,65	340,37	355,70	370,72	385,47	399,99
Production of food and beverages	39,74	41,79	43,87	45,80	47,90	49,91
Production of wood material and articles thereof (except for wooden furniture)	92,31	99,90	107,50	115,10	122,69	130,29
Production of textile and textile articles (except for apparel)	23,87	25,48	27,10	28,71	30,33	31,95
Production and casting of non-ferrous metals	129,87	132,86	135,63	138,20	140,62	142,89
Production of machines, equipment and household appliances	28,83	29,84	30,77	31,66	32,49	33,29
Healthcare and social activities	3,77	3,96	4,16	4,36	4,55	4,75
Agriculture, hunting and related services	7,18	7,56	7,94	8,31	8,69	9,06
Distribution of natural gas	182,49	182,49	182,49	182,49	182,49	182,49
Refineries and oil products	6 752,93	7 158,11	7 587,59	8 042,85	8 525,42	9 036,94
Cement production	4 236,39	4 559,84	4 980,58	6 721,71	6 919,72	7 117,74
Lime production	562,87	593,75	615,53	637,31	659,09	680,88
Production of cellulose and paper	375,46	412,98	480,26	509,05	537,08	562,77
Glass production	354,05	357,45	361,26	364,73	367,93	369,07
Ceramics production	154,33	157,21	160,34	162,80	165,11	167,27
Ferrous metallurgy	4 986,56	5 117,20	5 222,02	5 302,16	5 377,39	5 448,42
Unknown new entrants	0,00	1 000,00	2 000,00	3 000,00	4 000,00	5 000,00
Correction JI		3 200,87	3 200,87	3 200,87	3 200,87	3 200,87
Correction compulsory measures	330,53	475,82	512,08	560,99	729,91	899,81

In accordance with the requirements of the EU, the NAP plans for equal effort, which means equal right and equal obligation to changes (increase or reduction) in emission levels for the two groups of emission sources (participants and non participants) and preservation of the correlation of their emissions (Table 2, p.1.1.). After the determination of the various types of reserves for later allocation and the calculative reserves, a table is structured that contains the overall quantity of emission allowances by sectors and reserves for the country, which could be allocated within the Scheme from a macroeconomic viewpoint.

The overall volume of allowances to be allocated to registered participants is determined by recalculating the projected and corrected quantity of sectors emissions (Table 2) is re-calculated through setting aside out of the allowances of electric power sub-sector the quantity of emission reductions for cancellation of allowances for indirect double counting of emission reductions as a result of JI projects that were not accounted for in the macroeconomic forecast.

As a result of the "top-down” emission projections, after forming the respective reserves of emission units and their subtraction from , the overall amount of emissions which, from a macroeconomic viewpoint can be allocated between participants in the Scheme for the period 2007–2012 – (j=2007 - 2012) and the various types of reserves are determined. In Table 3, the preliminary allocation of those allowances among sectors is determined (from a macroeconomic viewpoint).

Table3. Volumes of allowance by sectors and total reserves for the country, which could be allocated in the Scheme from a macroeconomic viewpoint, Gg

№	Year	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012
1	Total allowances for registered installations	49 470 560	50 161 260	52 583 634	58 304 621	60 343 473	59 864 886
2.1	Energy activities, including:
2.1.1	-electric power	22 326 044	21 907 164	23 125 522	26 268 762	28 840 447	27 355 107
2.1.2	-combined production of heat and electric power	8 061 028	8 161 776	8 240 503	8 411 681	6 994 499	7 097 189
2.1.3	-thermal energy – public sector	828 190	871 531	914 871	958 212	1 001 552	1 044 893
2.1.4	-thermal energy for industrial purposes and other CP, incl.:	0	0	0	0	0	0
	Production of chemical products and rubber	324 655	340 368	355 702	370 719	385 469	399 989
	Production of food and beverages	39 739	41 792	43 872	45 801	47 903	49 909
	Production of wood material and wood articles thereof (except for wooden furniture)	92 309	99 905	107 500	115 095	122 691	130 286
	Production of textile and textile articles (except for apparel)	23 867	25 483	27 098	28 714	30 330	31 945
	Production and casting of non-ferrous metals	129 870	132 863	135 629	138 204	140 617	142 888
	Production of machines, equipment and household appliances	28 835	29 836	30 773	31 657	32 493	33 289
	Healthcare and social activities	3 765	3 962	4 159	4 356	4 553	4 750
	Agriculture, hunting and related services	7 185	7 561	7 937	8 313	8 689	9 065
	Distribution of natural gas	182 488	182 488	182 488	182 488	182 488	182 488
3.	Refineries and oil products	6 752 931	7 158 107	7 587 593	8 042 849	8 525 420	9 036 945
4.	Cement production	4 236 386	4 559 839	4 980 585	6 721 709	6 919 724	7 117 740
5.	Lime production	562 869	593 746	615 529	637 312	659 094	680 877
6.	Cellulose and paper production	375 463	412 976	480 258	509 054	537 076	562 773
7.	Glass production	354 053	357 450	361 257	364 733	367 930	369 065
8.	Ceramics production	154 328	157 212	160 342	162 805	165 106	167 268
9.	Ferrous metallurgy	4 986 555	5 117 201	5 222 016	5 302 157	5 377 393	5 448 420
10.	Reserve of allowances for delayed installations	2 473 528	2 583 461	2 774 311	3 130 824	3 287 764	3 329 807
11.	Reserve of allowances for unknown new entrants	0	1 000 000	2 000 000	3 000 000	4 000 000	5 000 000
12.	Reserve of allowances for new cogeneration	73 957	178 057	334 975	481 172	573 420	932 252
13.	Calculative reserve for standardization of degrees/day	148 686	148 686	148 686	148 686	148 686	148 686
14.	Calculative reserve for compulsory measures	330 530	475 820	512 080	560 990	729 910	899 810
15.	Allowances set aside for cancellation of allowances for indirect double counting as a result of JI projects	0	3 022 740	3 654 029	4 321 929	4 494 430	4 881 861

If the draft Decision of the European Commission regarding avoidance of double counting of GHG emission reductions is approved, then, in compliance with the requirements laid down in the Decision, the respective quantity of allowances will be set aside for JI projects with a direct double counting effect.

In determining the total quantity of allowances for allocation to installations, Bulgaria applies a combination of two approaches – the “historical emissions level” approach and the “forecast” approach.

Historical emissions level – under this approach, the total number of allowances is determined as the share of emissions emitted to the ambient air from installations covered by the Scheme in the respective country. For Bulgaria, the historical emissions level approach is used to define the base year.

The determination of the quantity of allowances and their relation to the emissions of the sources outside the Scheme is based on the following sources of information:

• 
  National GHG Inventory for the year 2003;
  
• 
  Company data based on a questionnaire, filled in by the operators of the installations;
  
• 
  Data on sectors and installations from the National Statistical Institute;
  
• 
  Data from the EEA on issued integrated permits and submitted requests for issuing an integrated permit.
  

The National GHG Inventory for the year 2003 is an official document and the operators sign a Declaration on the accuracy of data. Those data is compared to data from the National Statistical Institute, the integrated permits and other available documents.

Data about installations is collected pursuant to the EPA (SJ 75/27.09.2005). The MOEW, in cooperation with the EEA, the RIEWs, other ministries and stakeholders, has compiled a list of potential participants on the basis of available information. Announcements have been published in the mass-media and at the MOEW web-page.

The questionnaire used to collect data about installations has been developed by the consultants and approved by members of the Working Group. Gathered information has been used by the consultants from the Energy Institute, PLC to calculate the CO₂ emissions of installations covered by the Scheme based on data on fuel and raw materials consumption and production outputs.

Installations whose operators have provided sufficient and correct data in the questionnaire are included in a list of participants and receive allowances in the current plan. The total volume of emissions of registered installations for 2003 is calculated as a sum of the volumes of emissions from registered individual installations for 2003 (as provided in the questionnaire and corrected during the verification process).

,

where “i” is the serial number of the installation in the Scheme.

The volume of the reserve for not registered (delayed) installations is defined as 5% of emissions from registered installations:

Such a reserve is included for each year of the period 2007-2012, in order to allocate emission allowances to installations, which will register after 30 November 2005.

Apart from determining the overall volume of emissions of the installations in 2003, data from the registered installations is also used to determine the volumes of emissions by sectors, according to the classification of the International Panel on Climate Change in order to compare those volumes with the volumes received during the inventory of GHG emission for 2003.

Emissions from the following groups of sources have been determined:

• 
  Condensing TPP;
  
• 
  District Heating Cogeneration Plants;
  
• 
  District Heating Boilers
  
• 
  Auto-generation;
  
• 
  Refineries;
  
• 
  Ferrous metallurgy (fuels);
  
• 
  Production of cellulose and paper (fuels);
  
• 
  Other productions (fuels);
  
• 
  Production of ferrous metals (process emissions);
  
• 
  Cement production (process emissions);
  
• 
  Lime production (process emissions);
  
• 
  Glass production (process emissions);
  
• 
  Ceramics production (process emissions);
  
• 
  Cellulose and paper production (process emissions).
  

The emissions calculated in this manner by groups of sources, are compared with the emissions in the 2003 inventory (Table 4).

Table 4. Emissions of participating sectors and participating installations for 2003, kt CO₂

Sector	All installations	Registered installations	Share
-electric power	19 986,32	19 986,32	1,000
-combined production of heat and electric power	9 048,00	7 966,83^1	0,881
-heating – public sector	736,00	672,96	0,914
-heating for industrial purposes and other CP, incl.:	2 022,11	699,39	0,346
Production of chemical products and rubber	328,32	246,71	0,751
Production of food and beverages	485,00	31,43	0,065
Production of wood material and wood articles thereof (except for wooden furniture)	152,60	67,55	0,443
Production of textile and textile articles (except for apparel)	138,80	17,59	0,127
Production and casting of non-ferrous metals	145,60	120,69	0,829
Production of machines, equipment and household appliances	87,69	24,03	0,274
Healthcare and social activities	287,00	3,06	0,011
Agriculture, hunting and related services	178,10	5,84	0,033
Distribution of natural gas	219,00	182,49	0,833
Refineries and oil products	1 892,90	5 348,95^2	2,826
Cement production	2 622,10	2 358,82	0,900
Lime production	1 033,44	259,48	0,251
Cellulose and paper production	279,20	180,32	0,646
Glass production	206,73	190,81	0,923
Ceramics production	173,01	132,48	0,766
Ferrous metallurgy	5 344,20	4 513,0^31	0,844

The discrepancies in the aggregated overall volumes of emissions by groups of sources compared to the 2003 inventory have been assessed and, where necessary and possible, the reasons for such discrepancies were eliminated. Examples of such reasons include:

• 
  Considerable number of not registered installations;
  
• 
  Unconformity of emission factors;
  
• 
  Incorrect data on production volumes;
  
• 
  Incorrect data on fuels volumes.
  

both in the inventory and in the installation data.

Therefore, some operators of installations were invited to correct submitted data.

As a result, the total volume of emissions from installations registered in the Scheme for 2003 () and the volume of the reserve for delayed installations () have been determined.

It is expected that the total volume of emissions covered by the Scheme for 2003 is equal to the sum of the volume of emissions from registered installations () and the reserve ().

“Forecast” approach, where the total volume of emissions of installations is determined on the basis of their share of projected development based on “business as usual”.

In applying the forecast approach, the “top-down” and “bottom-up” principles are applied. “Top-down” forecasts include official data on the expected GDP and GVA growth by sectors. Based on those data an assessment is carried out of the relation between the growth of the GVA and the change in the production volumes in the sectors, covered by the Scheme. Another important component of the forecasting approach is the projection of the fuel and energy balance of the country (final consumption of fuels and energy by sectors, least costs development of the energy sector, primary gross consumption of fuels and energy). The described forecasts are developed using the “business as usual” scenario.

Projections take into account important policies with impact on climate change, such as policies laid down in the Second National Plan on Climate Change 2005-2008, the Strategy on Energy of Bulgaria, the National Long-term Programme on Energy Efficiency until 2015, the National Long-term Programme on Promotion of Renewable Energy Sources 2005-2015 (in a process of development), approved and supported joint implementation projects. Applicable Directives 2003/96/ЕС, 96/61/ЕС, 2003/17/ЕС, 2002/91/ЕС, 2001/80/ЕС, 1999/13/ЕС, 2001/77/ЕС are taken into account, with the respective implementation timeframes and agreed transition periods.

The projection of the trends in emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases has been taken into consideration in the process of developing the NAP, as shown in Figure 1 below:

Figure 1