Gonzaga Debate Institute 2010

Canadian JTF Adv. – 1AC – Arctic Conflict

Russia-US war leads to extinction

Bostrom 2 [Nick, Oxford philosophy faculty, “Published in the Journal of Evolution and Technology, Vol. 9, March, http://www.nickbostrom.com/existential/risks.html]JFS

A much greater existential risk emerged with the build-up of nuclear arsenals in the US and the USSR. An all-out nuclear war was a possibility with both a substantial probability and with consequences that might have been persistent enough to qualify as global and terminal. There was a real worry among those best acquainted with the information available at the time that a nuclear Armageddon would occur and that it might annihilate our species or permanently destroy human civilization.[4]  Russia and the US retain large nuclear arsenals that could be used in a future confrontation, either accidentally or deliberately. There is also a risk that other states may one day build up large nuclear arsenals. Note however that a smaller nuclear exchange, between India and Pakistan for instance, is not an existential risk, since it would not destroy or thwart humankind’s potential permanently.

British Special Forces Adv. (1/3)

PMCs recruit directly from the SAS --- incentives them to quit for higher salaries in private military sector

Jennings 4 (Special forces quitting to cash in on Iraq, CHRISTIAN JENNINGS, The Scotsmen, Feb 21, 2004) http://www.sandline.com/hotlinks/Scotsman_Spec-forces.html

BRITAIN’S elite special forces are facing an imminent crisis because record numbers of men are asking to leave their units early, lured by high wages on offer in a growing security industry in Iraq. Defence and special forces sources have told The Scotsman that such is the demand from private military companies in Britain and the United States who are operating in Iraq for former Special Air Service and Special Boat Service soldiers that, between May 2003 and December 2004, between 40 and 60 men are expected to have sought premature voluntary release, or PVR, from the army and Royal Marines. In operational terms, this could mean that this year, the equivalent of one entire special forces squadron out of a total of six in the SAS and SBS is on its way to seek its fortune in the new sIraq. The conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan, anti-terrorism deployments in Europe, training commitments abroad as well as the need to have one entire SAS squadron of 65 men and one SBS unit of 20 men permanently on anti-terrorism standby in the UK, means that Britain’s special forces are very thinly stretched. British, US and South African private military companies are all making money in Iraq following the fall of Saddam Hussein last year. Former elite troops from the SAS and SBS, the US’s Delta Force, Navy SEALs and Green Berets, South Africa’s special forces and police, as well as ex-French Foreign Legionnaires, are queuing up to take up contracts safeguarding oil installations, as bodyguards or training the Iraqi police and army. In particular demand are former members of Britain’s special forces. "Security companies want ex-Brit SF [special forces] because they have the most amazing history," said John Davidson, who runs Rubicon International, a British security company whose interests in Iraq include contracts with BP and Motorola. "The SAS are extremely well-trained, low-profile, not waving flags. They go about things in a quiet manner, they are the crême de la crême," added Mr Davidson, an 11-year veteran of Britain’s special forces. An SAS captain serving in the regular regiment, 22 SAS, can earn up to £40-45,000 per year, with various allowances, while a junior sergeant or senior corporal can earn £30,000 per annum. Such is the demand for the security skills of former SAS NCOs and officers in Iraq that pre-tax pay can range from £200 to £700 per day. To leave his unit, any member of the British armed forces can request a PVR from his commanding officer, although the request can be turned down and the move blocked. In addition to men asking to leave the SAS prematurely, another 24 SAS soldiers trained in amphibious warfare will now be detached each year from the SAS to the SBS. Combined with the PVR requests, this could leave the Hereford-based 22 Special Air Service Regiment potentially depleted by nearly a quarter of its strength. Special forces soldiers cost up to £2 million each to train, and all must be chosen from men who have already served for several years in their parent units. Less than 20 men a year pass out into the regiment. This latest development puts pressure on the current commanding officer of 22 SAS, a decorated lieutenant colonel from the Irish Guards, either to lower the standards for entry to the unit or allow younger, less experienced soldiers to apply. To make up this shortfall, some 60 men from two Territorial Army special forces units, 21 and 23 SAS, are said to have been operating in Afghanistan.The Ministry of Defence said last night that it did not make comments specific to special forces.

British Special Forces Adv. (2/3)

PMCs kill British special forces – in the status quo the best 1/6^th of the forces leave
Isenberg 4 (David BASIC RESEARCH REPORT September http://www.basicint.org/pubs/Research/2004PMC2 TBC 6/25/10)

Similarly, British officials say more than 300 soldiers have left the armed forces in six months to take up lucrative jobs with private companies such as Olive Security, Armour Security, Global and USDID.61 In particular, the demand from PMCs operating in Iraq for former Special Air Service and Special Boat Service soldiers is such that between May 2003 and December 2004, between 40 and 60 men are expected to have sought premature voluntary release from the army and Royal Marines. In operational terms, this could mean that the equivalent of one entire Sabre squadron out of a total of six in the SAS and SBS is on its way to seek its fortune in the new Iraq. 62 According to one British press report there are more ex-SAS soldiers acting as advisers for “private military companies” than currently serving in the elite, 300-man regiment based near Hereford. More than 40 regular SAS soldiers are understood to have applied to leave the Army in the last year, many because of the lure of short-term contracts in Iraq.63

SAS key to preventing terrorism

Rayment 8 Sean, SAS kills hundreds of terrorists in 'secret war' against al-Qaeda in Iraq, By Sean Rayment, Defence Correspondent, Published: 8:57PM BST 30 Aug 2008, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/onthefrontline/2652496/SAS-kill-hundreds-of-terrorists-in-secret-war-against-al-Qaeda-in-Iraq.html

More than 3,500 insurgents have been "taken off the streets of Baghdad" by the elite British force in a series of audacious "Black Ops" over the past two years. It is understood that while the majority of the terrorists were captured, several hundred, who were mainly members of the organisation known as "al-Qa'eda in Iraq" have been killed by the SAS. The SAS is part of a highly secretive unit called "Task Force Black" which also includes Delta Force, the US equivalent of the SAS. The prime targets have been those intent on joining the wave of suicide car bombers that claimed around 3,000 lives a month in Baghdad at the height of the terrorist campaign in 2006. Using intelligence gleaned from spies and informers, Task Force Black has nearly broken the back of the terrorist network and reduced bombings in Baghdad from about 150 a month to just two. But the success of the covert mission came at a price – six members of the SAS were killed and more than 30 were injured. Delta Force has suffered in the region of 20 per cent casualties. A senior British officer told The Sunday Telegraph: "We took over 3,500 terrorists off the streets of Baghdad in around 18 months. "You could say it was a very successful period. But the butcher's bill was high. The attrition rate is equivalent to that experienced by the SAS during the Malayan insurgency 50 years ago. “The relationship between the SAS and Delta Force is very close,” he added. “If anything, the attrition rate in Delta Force is higher. Two years ago the SAS made a donation to Delta Force’s 'widows and orphans’ fund of £10,000.” Senior sources denied that the SAS was taking part in “extra-judicial killings” and added that any incident which appeared to be in breach of the British Army’s rules of engagement would be investigated internally by the unit and by the Royal Military Police if any wrongdoing was suspected. The source said: “There is no shoot-to-kill policy in Iraq, but there are only a few ways of stopping a suicide bomber. A British lawyer is present during the planning stages of every operation and our troops operate under British rules, not American rules.” The SAS began to concentrate almost exclusively on reducing the car bomb threat in Iraq at the same time that the US military launched its so-called “surge”, which saw an additional 30,000 American troops move into the most dangerous areas of Baghdad, in early 2007. Gen David Petraeus, the head of the US forces in Iraq, who is due to leave his post shortly, has praised the courage of the SAS. He said: “They have helped immensely in Baghdad?… they have done a phenomenal job.” In one incident, SAS troops rented a pink pick-up truck, removed their body armour to blend in with locals, and drove through the traffic to catch a key target. “It was brilliant, actually,” Gen Petraeus said. “They have exceptional initiative, exceptional skill, exceptional courage and, I think, exceptional savvy. I can’t say enough about how impressive they are in thinking on their feet.”