Nigeria 2015: analysis of election issues and future prospects

Political profile

Constitution

Nigeria’s Constitution was promulgated in May 1999 in the context of the country’s return to civilian rule and democracy after 16 years of authoritarian military rule.²⁸¹

It is Nigeria’s fourth constitution since independence from Britain in 1960. The previous Constitutions were agreed in 1960, 1966 and 1979. Large parts of all three were regularly suspended due to a series of military coups.

In the 1979 Constitution, Nigeria moved from a British-style political system based on cabinet government and headed by a prime minister to a system that more closely resembled the US political system, with a president at the head of government. The 1999 Constitution embodied the same choice.

All four post-independence constitutions have endorsed the principle of federalism.

While the 1999 Constitution has strong supporters, some analysts argue that further revision is needed.²⁸² During 2014, a government-sponsored ‘National Conference’ was held – the fourth of its kind since independence. It submitted a report to President Goodluck Jonathan in August, which included a range of proposals for constitutional reform, including some changes to Nigeria’s presidential form of government. These proposals are still being considered.²⁸³

Government

According to Europa World Plus:

The executive powers of the Federation are vested in the President, who is the Head of State, the Chief Executive of the Federation and the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of the Federation. The President is elected for a term of four years and must receive not less than one-quarter of the votes cast at the election in at least two-thirds of the States in the Federation and the Federal Capital Territory.

The President nominates a candidate as his associate from the same political party to occupy the office of Vice-President. The Ministers of the Government of the Federation are nominated by the President, subject to confirmation by the Senate. Federal executive bodies include the Council of State, which advises the President in the exercise of his powers. ²⁸⁴

In many minds, since 1999 there has been an informal arrangement in place within the ruling PDP that provides for the rotation of the federal presidency between southerners and northerners, known for short as ‘zoning’. But this is not explicitly provided for in either the current Constitution or the law.

Nigerians today divide the country into six geographic zones: north-west, north-east, north-central, south-west, south-east and south-south.

Apart from the Federal Capital Territory, there are currently 36 states within the Federation. Europa World Plus says:

The executive powers of a State are vested in the Governor of that State, who is elected for a four-year term and must receive not less than one-quarter of votes cast in at least two-thirds of all local government areas in the state.²⁸⁵

Both the federal president and state governors can hold office for a maximum of two terms.

Under the 1999 Constitution, the Federal Capital Territory does not have its own elected governor. The Federal President performs the role.

There are also 774 directly elected local government councils across the 36 states.²⁸⁶

Parliament

The National Assembly is comprised of a lower house, the 360-member House of Representatives, and an upper house, the 109-member Senate. Members of both houses are elected for a four-year term.

Legislation can originate in either house but must be approved by a two-thirds majority in the house where it originates before it can be sent to the other house for approval. The bill is subsequently presented for presidential assent. If that is refused, the bill returns to both houses and can become law without presidential assent if it gains a two-thirds majority in both houses.

A substantial number of the bills introduced in the National Assembly have failed to become law or have become stuck within the legislative process and taken a long time to pass.

Each of the 36 states has its own House of Assembly. They have between 24 and 40 members, depending on how many seats a state has been allocated in the federal House of Representatives.

Under the 1999 Constitution, the Federal Capital Territory does not have its own elected House of Assembly. The National Assembly performs the role.²⁸⁷

Judiciary and legal systems

Under the 1999 Constitution, the following courts are provided for:

At the federal level – Supreme Court; Court of Appeal; High Court; Sharia Court of Appeal; Customary Court of Appeal.

At the state level – High Court; Sharia Court of Appeal; Customary Court of Appeal.²⁸⁸

Chief Judges are nominated on the recommendation of a National Judicial Council.²⁸⁹

As the names of the courts described above suggest, across Nigeria, three legal systems operate, often in parallel: the common law, which is derived from English law, as introduced during the colonial period; customary law, which is derived from the principles and practices implemented by Nigeria’s myriad ethnic groups; and Sharia law, which applies to Nigeria’s Muslims.

Since Nigeria returned to civilian rule in 1999, 12 state governments in northern Nigeria have fully or partially introduced Sharia law for criminal offences.²⁹⁰ While Sharia Courts in these states have continued as before mainly to address property, matrimonial and inheritance disputes, in the period since 1999 they have also dealt with cases relating to criminal acts and public morality. Their procedures and punishments have been forcefully criticised by local and international human rights groups.²⁹¹

Main political parties

There are two main political parties contesting for office at present:

The People’s Democratic Party (PDP)

The PDP emerged at the time of Nigeria’s transition to civilian rule following the death of the military dictator General Sani Abacha in 1998. It became the vehicle for a diverse range of politicians and retired military figures who had been opposed to Abacha.

The PDP rallied around the candidacy of Olusegun Obasanjo and he and the party won decisive victories in the 1999 presidential and National Assembly elections. Since then the party has won a clean sweep of elections in 2003, 2007 and 2011. Since 1999, it is the only party that has come anywhere near to representing all parts of the country, although it is still relatively weak in the north and has never come close to monopolising power at all levels of government.²⁹²

The PDP has always been more oriented towards patronage politics than constructing an ideological programme for government.²⁹³ It has accommodated reformers but they have often ultimately found themselves out of favour. At various times – including in recent years – it has seemed possible that factional rivalries might destroy the party. However, bolstered by the benefits of political incumbency, to date it has hung together and remains a formidable electoral machine. The party could yet deliver a second presidential election victory in February 2015 for its candidate, President Goodluck Jonathan.

The All Progressives Congress (APC)

The APC is the latest combination of forces opposed to the PDP and hoping to end its grip on power. Established in 2013, its factions mainly consist of the ‘legacy parties’ that have come together in search of victory in the 2015 elections.

The Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) is the party of ex-military leader Muhammadu Buhari, who has unsuccessfully contested the last three presidential elections. It is overwhelmingly a party of the north.

Buhari formerly led the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP), another northern party, but he left it after the party accepted the 2007 election result. The party has since re-joined the opposition ranks but has it lost support since Buhari’s departure.

The Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) is a predominantly southwestern party. Its leading figures have been Bola Tinubu, former governor of Lagos state, and until August 2014 (see below), Nuhu Ribadu, who contested the 2011 presidential election for the party.

A faction of another party, the All Progressives Grand Alliance, has also joined the APC.²⁹⁴

All of these parties have formed governments at state-level. The main planks of the APC are anti-corruption, job creation and the restoration of internal peace and security.²⁹⁵ However, sceptics allege that not much distinguishes it ideologically from the PDP.²⁹⁶ Muhammadu Buhari will be its candidate in the February 2015 presidential contest.

Political leaders

Dr Goodluck Ebele Jonathan – President

Born in 1957 in the oil-rich Niger Delta in the south of Nigeria, Goodluck Jonathan is a Christian from the Ijaw ethnic group. He is close to Ayodele Oritsejafor, a Pentecostal priest who is president of the Christian Association of Nigeria.²⁹⁷ Jonathan went into politics as a member of the PDP in the late 1990s and became governor of Bayelsa state in 2005.

A supporter of former president Olusegun Obasanjo, in 2007 he was picked as the party’s vice-presidential candidate. The death in office of northerner President Umaru Yar-Adua in 2010, led to him becoming President. Having originally said that he would not do so, he stood successfully as the PDP’s presidential candidate in the 2011 elections and is standing again in 2015.

Many northerners believe that by standing in 2011, he tore up the informal ‘zoning’ arrangement established since 1999, in which northerners and southerners alternate holding the presidency.²⁹⁸ He may not have a particularly dynamic reputation as a leader and has been viewed by many as an “accidental president”, but powerful interests are aligned behind him.²⁹⁹

Namadi Sambo – Vice President

Born in 1952, Namadi Sambo was elected as the PDP governor of Kaduna state in 2007. In 2011 he was selected by Jonathan as his running mate. Because he came from the north and was a Muslim, he was viewed as helping to create a balanced ticket.

A supporter of former military president Ibrahim Babangida, he is not viewed as having a strong personal power base and there was speculation that he might not be Jonathan’s running mate in 2015.³⁰⁰ However, in the end, he was retained. In 2012 his family home was attacked by Boko Haram.

David Mark

Born in 1948 in the mid-eastern Benue state, David Mark is yet another ex-military man in politics. He is a member of the PDP and has been the President of the Senate since 2007, which makes him the third most senior member of the current government.

A loyal backer of both Ibrahim Babangida and Olusegun Obasanjo when they were president, there has been speculation that he might run for president himself at some point in the future, but currently he appears satisfied with his current role, which he hopes to return to after the elections.³⁰¹

Nuhu Ribadu

Born in 1960 in the eastern Adamawa state, Nuhu Ribadu came to prominence after he was appointed chair of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) in 2003 by former president Olusegun Obasanjo. He held the post until 2007 when he was suspended. He was subsequently replaced.

During his tenure as chair of the EFCC he launched a series of high-profile anti-corruption legal cases against powerful political figures, although critics accused him of failing to target close allies of President Obasanjo. He briefly went into exile but returned to stand as the ACN’s presidential candidate in the 2011 elections.

He subsequently became a senior figure in the APC but in August 2014 defected back to the PDP, his original political home.³⁰² He is the PDP’s candidate for the governorship of Adamawa state in the February 2015 elections.

Muhammadu Buhari

Born in 1942, Muhammadu Buhari is a northerner from Katsina state who forged a career in the army. He became president after a military coup in December 1993. In 1995 he was forced from office by a rival army faction led by Ibrahim Babangida. His time in power is remembered for human rights abuses but also for a strong stance against corruption.

Buhari has unsuccessfully stood for the presidency as a civilian three times and will do so again in 2015 as the candidate of the APC. He has never accepted the legitimacy of his defeat in the 2007 elections.

Known as a devout Muslim and for his personal probity, he has considerable grassroots support in the north but has powerful enemies within Nigeria’s elite, where political victories are still won or lost.³⁰³

Yemi Osinbajo

Born in Lagos in 1957 and a relative newcomer to frontline politics, Yemi Osinbajo has been selected by Muhammadu Buhari as his vice-presidential running mate for the 2015 elections.³⁰⁴ A pastor of the Redeemed Christian Church of God in Lagos, his selection by Buhari seems in large part designed to ensure that the APC has a ‘balanced ticket’ in the forthcoming elections.

Both a lawyer and academic by profession, he served as Attorney-General of Lagos state during the governorship of Bola Tinubu.

Bola Tinubu

Born in Lagos in 1952, Bola Tinubu was elected governor of Lagos state in 1999 on behalf of the Alliance for Democracy, which became the dominant force within the ACN when it was formed in 2006, serving two terms in office until 2007. He is viewed as having been a dynamic governor who got things done during his eight-year tenure.

Tinubu was a powerful ‘godfather’ to the ACN, and has continued this role with the APC. He is widely believed to retain presidential or vice-presidential ambitions but has so far had to content himself with the role of kingmaker. He has a wide-range of business interests.³⁰⁵

Lamido Sanusi

Born in 1961, Lamido Sanusi is a member of the Fulani royal family, whose court is based in Kano. A banker and Islamic scholar, he came to prominence in 2009 when President Umaru Yar’Adua appointed him as governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria. He rapidly acquired a reputation as a reformer and critic of official corruption, including in the petroleum industry. In late 2013, he alleged that US$50 billion worth of oil revenue (later reduced to $20 billion) had disappeared between January 2012 and July 2013.³⁰⁶ President Goodluck Jonathan suspended Sanusi from his post in February 2014 amid counter-allegations of graft against him.

The dispute has been largely overtaken by Sanusi’s unexpected crowning as the 14^th Emir of Kano in June 2014, which involved by-passing the son of his predecessor. He has taken the title Muhammad Sanusi II.³⁰⁷ Sanusi has joined the ranks of those traditional rulers in Nigeria who are able to use their position to exert a degree of public influence.³⁰⁸ Since then, relations with President Jonathan appear to have improved.

Edwin Clark

Born in 1932 in Nigeria’s south-south, Edwin Clark is a close advisor to President Goodluck Jonathan. Briefly Minister of Information when Yakubu ‘Jack’ Gowon was military ruler (1966-75) and a former member of the Senate, today he is chairman of the Delta State Elders Forum. He is viewed as a strong (and sometimes controversial) defender of Ijaw – the fourth largest ethnic group in Nigeria – interests.³⁰⁹

Others

Ex-presidents Ibrahim Babangida (1985-93) and Olusegun Obasanjo (1999-2007) continue to exercise much influence behind the scenes. They remain (not always loyal) ‘godfathers’ of the PDP’s extended family. Theophilius Danjuma is another important actor in PDP politics.

An influential political figure who defected from the PDP is Atiku Abubakar. Formerly vice-president under Obasanjo, he fell out with him during their second term in office and ended up unsuccessfully contesting the presidential election in 2007 as the candidate of the ACN. He is now a senior figure within the APC, losing out on the party’s 2015 presidential election nomination to Muhammadu Buhari.

Also prominent within the APC are the governors of Kano state, Lagos state and Rivers state, Rabiu Kwankwaso, Babatunde Fashola and Rotimi Amaechi. A recent recruit from the PDP is Aminu Tambuwal, the speaker of the House of Representatives.

Finally, there is Aliko Dangote, Africa’s richest man. Born in 1957 in Kano state to an affluent family, he has made his billions through cement, sugar and flour and is now moving into the oil business.³¹⁰

While he avoids overtly partisan politics and places much emphasis on philanthropic interventions through his private foundation, Dangote has made contributions to political projects, including the presidential campaigns of former President Obasanjo – and, after his retirement, Obasanjo’s presidential library – for which the Dangote Group reportedly received valuable government concessions in return.³¹¹

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