Nigeria 2015: analysis of election issues and future prospects

EU-Nigeria relations

Overview

EU relations with Nigeria are framed by the 2000 Cotonou Agreement, a treaty signed by EU Member States and the members of the Africa, Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) Group of States, which includes Nigeria.¹⁷⁰ Relations are also shaped by the ‘EU-Africa Strategic Partnership’ which was agreed in 2007.¹⁷¹ An EU-West Africa Economic Partnership Agreement which will govern trade relations with Nigeria was signed in July 2014 but is not yet in force.¹⁷²

In 2009, an enhanced framework for political dialogue and cooperation, called the ‘Nigeria-EU Joint Way Forward’, was agreed. It says:

The purpose of the Joint Way Forward is to take the Nigeria-EU political dialogue and cooperation to a new level.

The Nigeria-EU Joint Way Forward will be guided by the fundamental principles of ownership and joint responsibility, respect for human rights, good governance, democratic principles and the rule of law. Both parties are committed to advancing these values globally.

Nigeria and the EU consider each other as natural and strong partners. Nigeria and the EU share common values and ideals, both believing in peace and security, equality, democracy and tolerance as ways of developing prosperous and generous societies.

It is important to strengthen economic cooperation between the parties and stimulate the development of bonds between private industrial, commercial and financial actors. A strong private sector economy acting in partnership with a sound public administration is essential to achieve sustainable development.

The Parties during this process will take into due account their common concern for the environment and in particular, climate change as phenomena with an overall impact on security and development issues. Energy security is linked to these concerns. The impact of climate change in Europe and Africa and the role of technology innovation to reduce the adverse effects are of highest importance to Nigeria and the EU.

The Parties, in line with their common values, recognise the importance of promoting democracy and rule of law and of developing a human rights dimension in their dialogue touching upon a number of issues of mutual concern.

A key element of the Joint Way Forward is the common commitment to regional cooperation and integration. The EU fully supports Nigeria’s commitment to working with ECOWAS and the AU. Both Parties agree that the Joint Way Forward shall be supportive of the Joint Africa-EU Strategy by including several of the strategic priority areas and developing over time the remaining areas after common agreement.¹⁷³

Since 2009, there have been five Nigeria-EU Ministerial Dialogues. The most recent took place in Abuja, the capital of Nigeria, in November 2014.¹⁷⁴

There will be an EU Observer Mission in Nigeria monitoring the February 2015 elections.

Security

The EU has provided funds over recent years to Nigeria for counterinsurgency initiatives, although it has shared wider concerns about the human rights record of Nigeria’s security forces. EU priorities on security have moved from the Niger Delta to the north of the country.

The EU has expressed grave concern about the deteriorating security situation in the north of Nigeria and has condemned Boko Haram’s attacks, including the kidnapping of the schoolgirls in Chibok.

In May 2014 it listed Boko Haram as a terrorist organisation.¹⁷⁵ In July it added Ansaru to the list, as well as Boko Haram’s leader, Muhammed Abubakar Shekau.

In May 2014 the EU announced a new €9.9m counterterrorism package through its Instrument for Stability.¹⁷⁶ The UK Government has called for Nigeria to be eligible for funds under the EU Strategy for Security and Development in the Sahel, to which it has given financial support, but it appears so far without success.¹⁷⁷

Trade

Nigeria has run a goods trade surplus with the EU in all but four years between 1995 and 2013. ¹⁷⁸

Nigerian goods exports to the EU have increased dramatically in recent years, jumping from $19 billion in 2010 to $40 billion in 2012, before falling slightly to $35 billion in 2013. This is due to increased levels of oil exports, which jumped from $13.7 billion in 2010 to $33.9 billion in 2012. In 2013, Nigeria’s largest export markets within the EU were Spain, the Netherlands, Germany, France, the UK and Italy, with oil and natural gas making up 92% of total Nigerian goods exports to the EU.

Nigerian goods imports from the EU peaked at $17.5 billion in 2008, before falling slightly in subsequent years, reaching $14 billion in 2013. Nigeria’s largest goods imports from the EU were manufactured goods, machinery and transport equipment. In 2013, Nigeria’s largest sources of imports within the EU were France, the UK, the Netherlands, Germany and Belgium.

The basis for Nigerian trade with the EU is the 2000 Cotonou Agreement, also known as the ACP-EU Partnership Agreement. This covers Nigeria and 78 other developing countries in Africa, the Caribbean and the Pacific. It was last revised in 2010.

In 2009 Nigeria and the EU signed the “Nigeria-EU Joint Way Forward”, which sets out detailed plans for intensified dialogue and cooperation, including assistance with trade and promoting the diversification of the Nigerian economy.¹⁷⁹

Nigeria is also one of 16 countries negotiating the West African Economic Partnership Agreement with the EU, described by former EU Trade Commissioner De Gucht as “a privileged economic partnership with West Africa that will be a foundation of long-term growth and future prosperity in a region that is so close to Europe.”¹⁸⁰ The European Commission have described the terms of the deal as “providing West African firms with conditions that are more advantageous than those that apply to European exports to Africa.”¹⁸¹

Aid

Whilst the European Commission’s overall programme is smaller than those of the UK or the US, it is still a major aid donor. Most of the European Union’s aid to Nigeria is delivered through the European Development Fund (EDF), which operates in multi-year cycles. Under the 10^th EDF (2008 to 2013), €580m was allocated for Nigeria, targeting three priority areas: governance and human rights; peace and security; and trade and regional integration.¹⁸²

The Country Strategy Paper for the 11^th EDF (2014 to 2020) was finalised in June 2014.¹⁸³ Programmable resources for the period have been set at €512m. Most of the funds are scheduled to go to three sectors: health, nutrition and resilience (€240m); sustainable energy and access to electricity (€150m); and rule of law, governance and democracy (€90m).¹⁸⁴ The decision to focus on these sectors marks a significant shift in priorities.

The EU's humanitarian office – ECHO – is supporting food security and nutritional programmes in northern Nigeria, as well as assisting victims of violence.

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