Title of paper

8. Climate change mitigation and adaptation

8.1 Mitigation

Climate change mitigation refers to efforts to reduce or prevent emission of greenhouse gases. It is about using new technologies, renewable energies, making older equipment more efficient, changing management practices or consumer behaviour, protecting carbon sinks like forests and oceans or creating new sinks. The aim of mitigation is to have a lower carbon society.
Even though Namibia’s contribution to global greenhouse gas emissions is negligible and it is shown to be a net sink of carbon dioxide, the country is nevertheless committed to reducing its greenhouse gas emissions where this is financially and environmentally feasible.
Namibia imports between 50% and 70% of its electricity from South Africa, and has a very low population number and population density and small industrial and agricultural sectors. Taking a sectoral approach, the most significant variables in the emissions equation are the energy sector, the agricultural sector and the land use change and forestry sector. Between 1994 (previous GHG inventory) and 2000 (current GHG inventory), energy and agriculture showed a growth in emissions of 15.5% and 81.5%, respectively. Land use change and forestry showed an increase of 84.7%. Within these sectors, transport, cattle farming and extensive bush encroachment are the greatest contributors to the greenhouse gas balance. Taking the above into account, an opportunity for Namibia to mitigate climate change lies in investment in cleaner energy.
Overall, mitigation projects qualifying to clean energy in Namibia are: solar, wind, natural gas for cars, biogas, biomass, geothermal, wave/tidal, afforestation and agroforestry projects, improved stoves and charcoal kilns. A strong rationale exists for public support, investors and sponsors in the exploitation of clean energy, based on the many economic, environmental, health, job creation, enterprise competitiveness and security benefits which these technologies offer.

8.2 Adaptation

Adaptation means anticipating the adverse effects of climate change and taking appropriate action to prevent or minimise the damage they cause or taking advantage of the opportunities that may arise from climate change. It has been shown that well planned, early adaptation action saves money and lives later.
Namibia’s ability to adapt to climate change will be informed by its aridity, environmental sensitivity, population growth trends and high densities in northern areas and internal migration, high dependence on natural resources (particularly agricultural land), widespread poverty amongst some sections of the population, decline in effective traditional land management systems, and lack of access to credit and savings.
However, people may not adapt sufficiently to climate change for a variety of reasons. Climate may be perceived to pose little risk relative to other hazards and stressors and therefore given low priority, as shown in the Namibian Poverty Profiles. A Namibia specific study identified the following barriers to adaptation to climate change:

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  Insufficient awareness (information limited to specialists)
  
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  Political and institutional barriers (slow implementation of policies and low public participation)
  
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  Socio-cultural barriers (technology stigmatation)
  
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  Financial barriers (types and conditionality of funds)
  

Namibia aims to address its increasing water scarcity through both supply- and demand-side interventions within a framework of Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM). Since climate variability is and will remain the greatest threat, adaptation responses should draw on experiences in innovative mechanisms to address water scarcity and expand implementation of such approaches countrywide and at all times. The focus should be on measures to reduce evaporation and to improve water resource use efficiency. Specific measures will include the conjunctive use of surface and groundwater resources, including sub-surface water banking. Monitoring and control of groundwater use will be stepped up. Demand management is required in municipalities, industries, mines, and in the agricultural sector. For local authorities this may go a long way to delay major water infrastructure investments. The Basin Management Approach may assist in raising awareness of the vulnerability to climate change amongst communities, but more resources and capacity building are required to gain experience with the approach. The development of the policy and legal framework around IWRM must be finalised as matter of priority.

For agriculture, adaptive responses are structured along technological, policy and institutional imperatives. Technological priorities include irrigation and water harvesting, conservation agriculture, diversification, use of improved crops (especially those developed from indigenous germplasm), use of indigenous livestock breeds, increased seed and fertilizer availability, shared water resource management, early warning systems, drought mitigation measures, livestock management strategies, and crop modelling skills development. Adaptation at the farm-level focuses on tactical decisions farmers make in response to seasonal variations in climatic, economic, and other factors, and influenced by a number of socio-economic factors including access to information and supportive institutions. For effective adaptation at this level, perceptions of current and future climate are important, and improved communication and information dissemination should be established to guide behavioural adaptation. There is a great need for improving social organisation and local adaptive capacity, to counteract dwindling social support and increasing conflict in communities. It is important that research is linked to existing local knowledge of climate related hazards and involves local communities in exploring adaptation decision making.
In view of the uncertainties surrounding sea level rise, adaptation responses that retain options and promote continued monitoring and flexibility are most valuable.
From a financial perspective, sea-level rise adaptation options in Namibia can be divided into

(1) no regrets options – desirable, low cost, high benefit options should be pursued even if climate change was not a threat,

(2) sea-level rise specific responses that save more money than they cost and

(3) sea-level rise specific options that are necessary (to save human life or heritage value) but are costly.

From a methodological perspective, adaptation options can be divided into

(1) infrastructure and hard engineering responses (such as sea-walls, dolosses and raising the level of harbours; desalination plants),

(2) soft and biological responses such as the retention of wetlands and riparian vegetation in estuaries, beach and sandspit replenishment, the planting of dune vegetation to ensure dune buffers are retained and the cultivating of kelp beds that dissipate wave energy, and

(3) socio-institutional responses such as enforced coastal buffer zones, early warning, insurance market and planned relocations.

Selecting and applying these options will be most effective within the Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) approach, which takes cognisance of Namibia’s existing development priorities and programmes, the economic, social, recreational and cultural objectives of the coastal zone, and the limits set by the carrying capacity of the coast. ICZM must also be undertaken in collaboration with neighbouring countries, through the Benguela Current Commission (BCC).
Adaptation in the tourism sector will focus on sustainable tourism, underpinned by Namibia’s negligible carbon footprint and its excellent reputation for nature conservation, and in particular pro-poor nature conservation (CBNRM). Namibia will actively seek to market the country as a ‘carbon-neutral’, ‘fair trade’, ‘pro-environment’ and ‘pro-poor’ tourism destination. Conservancies, by diversifying land use and associated rural income sources and livelihoods, provide benefits which improve the capacity of rural ecosystems, rural land use systems, and rural livelihood systems to adapt to the effects of climate change. This makes rural people benefiting from CBNRM less vulnerable and increases their adaptive capacity. Wildlife is generally better adapted than livestock to the current ecological and climatic conditions in arid Namibia, and can be expected to be more resilient and adaptable to future conditions. The conservancy programme’s monitoring activities and developing database, collated and stored in a national conservancy information system (CONINFO) provides a valuable information base which can be used towards effective climate change monitoring and adaptation for both the natural resource base and the tourism-related activities which it supports.
In terms of managing the impacts of drought and floods the capacity for disaster risk preparedness, rather than disaster response, should be strengthened. Spatial planning that takes ecosystem requirements into consideration has the potential to markedly reduce flood related costs. In order to address the disaster-related risks suffered by the majority of the rural population, pro-poor disaster insurance schemes should be developed.