West Coast Publishing Ocean 2014 affirmative page

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UQ- Tipping Point

The oceans are heading for an environmental “tipping point” we can’t come back from once crossed

Ocean Tipping Points, interdisciplinary organization working to improve ocean ecosystem health, March 8, 2014,“Oceanic Tipping Points”, Accessed May 5, 2014, http://oceantippingpoints.org/sites/default/files/uploads/TippingPointsOverview.pdf
A growing problem An increasing number of examples of tipping points in ecosystems around the world are raising concern among scientists and policymakers. In the oceans, diverse ecosystems ranging from reefs to estuaries to pelagic sys- tems have undergone sudden, dramatic shifts. Changes in ocean climate, the abundance of key species, nutrients and other factors drive these shifts, with resulting effects on ocean food webs, habitats, and ecosystem functions that have direct impacts on people’s livelihoods and well-being. Ocean tipping points may be cause for partic- ular concern because they are hard to anticipate and can be very difficult, if not impossible, to reverse. Tipping points change the rules For managers of marine ecosystems, an understanding of tipping points is critical because they change the rules of the game. The new ecosystem state may function quite differently from the previous one, respond differently to management interventions, and provide different levels and types of benefits to people. Although there have been many critical advances in the science of ecosystem tipping points in recent years, managers still lack prac- tical tools and information to help them anticipate and respond to ecosystem shifts. Tipping Points on Land In the native longleaf pine forests of the US Southeast, the tipping point involves fire. Without frequent enough wildfire, fast-growing shortleaf pine invades, and the forest shifts rapidly into one that no longer functions in the same way – one that can’t, for example, provide essential habitat for the endangered red-cockaded wood- peckers that live only there. Tipping Points in the Ocean In the Baltic Sea, a series of threats pushed the system over a tipping point in the 1980s, from which it has yet to recover. Overfishing of top predators and fifty years of nutrient pollution combined with climate change to shift the Baltic from a productive and highly valuable, cod-dom- inated ecosystem to one dominated instead by inedible jellyfish.

UQ- Tipping Point

Oceans are on the tipping point now—small actions like the plan could push us over the brink

Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, Blue Ribbon Panel Chair, Director at the Global Change Institute, University of Queensland, April 24, 2014, “Ocean Action: A Different Kind of Tipping Point”, Accessed May 5, 2014, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/ove-hoeghguldberg/ocean-action-a-different-kind-of-tipping-point_b_5191058.html
Recently you may have noticed the ever-increasing number of international conferences, talks, meetings and reports on the ocean and its declining health. Just in the last two years, we have had two excellent World Ocean Summits hosted byThe Economist, which brought together a rich audience of politicians, business leaders, NGOs and experts to focus on the evidence, challenges and solutions to the changes being observed in our oceans. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has also just released its fifth assessment report, which, for the first time, includes several chapters focusing on the ocean as a key region. The IPCC and other global groups have hosted meetings on everything from ocean acidification and weather patterns to fisheries and biodiversity. A lot of meeting, travel and talk. One cynical perspective might be that all this talk and travel is generating carbon dioxide rather than driving tangible progress. Nothing is changing, and the ocean is still degrading before our eyes. Standing back, however, you can see this activity as a response to a series of looming biophysical tipping points that could lead to changes we will have to live with for tens of thousands of years. You only have to look at the issue of ocean warming and acidification to see what is at stake. These biophysical tipping points could be disastrous, but I am optimistic that we are at the verge of another tipping point, one where the global community commits to take action now. Tip one way and we face irreversible change in the ocean's ability to produce food and jobs and protect our planet. That message is writ large across our blue planet, in "ink" that could be permanent for natural and human systems. Tip the other way, however, and the situation could be very different. Instead of declining, we could see the emergence of "healing" oceans that produce more, not less, sustainable food for Earth's growing population. The recent IPCC Working Group III Report, with findings on climate change's impact on crop productivity, adds a huge amount of urgency to act now and restore ocean health.

UQ- Tipping Point

New models suggest ocean ecosystems are fragile and on the brink

University of Bergen, a European university, February 20, 2014 “Climate change: Unstable Atlantic deep ocean circulation may hasten 'tipping point'”, Accessed May 5, 2014, http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/02/140220141625.htm
A new study looking at past climate change, asks if these changes in the future will be spasmodic and abrupt rather than a more gradual increase in the temperature. Today, deep waters formed in the northern North Atlantic fill approximately half of the deep ocean globally. In the process, this impacts the circum-Atlantic climate and regional sea level, and it soak up much of the excess atmospheric carbon dioxide from industrialisation -- helping moderate the effects of global warming. Changes in this circulation mode are considered a potential tipping point in future climate change that could have widespread and long-lasting impacts including on regional sea level, the intensity and pacing of Sahel droughts, and the pattern and rate of ocean acidification and CO2 sequestration. Until now, this pattern of circulation has been considered relatively stable during warm climate states such as those projected for the end of the century. A new study led by researchers from the Bjerknes Centre of Climate Research at the University of Bergen (UiB) and Uni Research in Norway, suggests that Atlantic deep water formation may be much more fragile than previously realised. The researchers Eirik Vinje Galaasen (UiB), Ulysses Ninnemann (UiB), Nil Irvali (Uni Research), and Helga (Kikki) Kleiven (UiB) and their colleagues from Rutgers University, USA (Professor Yair Rosenthal), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, France (Research Scientist Catherine Kissel) and the University of Cambridge, UK (Professor David Hodell) used the shells of tiny single-celled, bottom-dwelling foraminifera found in marine sediment in the North Atlantic Ocean to reconstruct the surface ocean conditions and concomitant deep ocean circulation of about 125,000 years ago. This is the last interglacial period, when the North Atlantic was warmer, fresher and sea level was higher than it is today and looked a lot like what climate models predict it will look by the end of this century. "At that time, there were a series of sudden and large reductions in the influence of these North Atlantic waters in the deep ocean. These deep water reductions occurred repeatedly, each lasting for some centuries before bouncing back. The unstable circulation operated as if it was near a threshold and flickered back and forth across it," says Eirik Vinje Galaasen, a PhD student and now researcher at UiB's Department of Earth Science, who is the lead author of the paper published in the journal Science. "These types of changes hadn't been noticed before because they are so short-lived. Geologists hadn't focused on century scale ocean changes because they are difficult to detect," adds Professor Ulysses Ninnemann, from UiB's Department of Earth Science and Galaasen's PhD adviser. "Our study demonstrates that deep water formation can be disrupted by the freshening of the regional surface water, which might happen due to enhanced precipitation and glacier melting under future climate change scenarios," says Yair Rosenthal, a co-author on the paper. The international team studied traces of deep ocean properties imprinted in the sediments on the seafloor. Coring into the seafloor mud they could look back in time to reconstruct changes in the abyssal ocean at a location South of Greenland that is sensitive to North Atlantic Deep Water. The mud at this location builds up 10-15 times as fast as normal, recording much shorter changes than at other sites. Although the changes are short from a geological perspective, a few centuries of reduced deep water could be a big deal for societies that would have to grapple with things like draughts and sea level changes that could accompany them.

UQ- Structural

There’s structural UQ for the disad- most of earth’s oceans haven’t been explored yet

NOAA-National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Non-government environmental research organization, July 19-21, 2013, “Ocean Exploration 2020 A National Forum,” http://oceanexplorer.noaa.gov/oceanexploration2020/oe2020_report.pdf, Accessed April 17, 2014
When you mention the word “Exploration” most people think of Captain James Cook, Vasco de Gama, Sir Francis Drake, Marco Polo, Ferdinand Magellan, and Christopher Columbus; all of whom died long ago. But when it comes to “Ocean Exploration”, the greatest ocean explorers of all time are more than likely still in middle school since that generation of future explorers will explore more of Earth than all previous generations combined. The reasons are simple. 72% of the world lies hidden beneath the sea and most of it lies in a world of eternal darkness and is unexplored. In fact, we have better maps of the far side of the moon than half of the United States of America. Daunting as this task may seem, new advances in undersea exploration technologies and now greatly accelerating our rate of exploration. The unexplored regions of our oceans not only contain important keys to unlocking the history of planet Earth, they also contain vast mineral resources, new fisheries, and important places beneath the sea that need to be set aside as marine sanctuaries. The oceans also contain more lost chapters of human history than all of the museums of the world combined.

UQ- International Efforts Now

Massive steps being taken now across the planet to curb environmental destruction of the oceans

Global Oceans Action Summit, international oceanic environmental health summit, April 25, 2014, “ANNOUNCEMENT GLOBAL OCEANS ACTION SUMMIT FOR FOOD SECURITY AND BLUE GROWTH 22 to 25 APRIL, 2014 THE HAGUE, THE NETHERLANDS”, Accessed May 5, 2014, http://www.globaloceansactionsummit.com/
The Hague - We will need to take unorthodox steps to tackle overfishing, climate change and pollution of the oceans. Governments, business leaders and NGOs from 80 countries commit themselves to firm agreements. In addition, 10 partnerships were announced. We have the solutions for sustainable fisheries and blue growth in our own hands and now it is a matter of putting this into action on a global scale, and this action starts today. This is the final conclusion of the Global Oceans Action Summit after a week of high level roundtable discussions in The Hague. From courage to action Dutch Minister for Agriculture and chair of the summit, H.E. Sharon Dijksma, said about the result: 'This week the world didn’t just show courage; it showed especially that’s it’s ready for action to tackle overfishing, climate change and pollution. That is exactly what the world needs right now, as only then will fish and healthy oceans still be able to provide for hundreds of millions of people after 2030.' Results from the Summit: The only way to end the war of attrition at sea is to stop overfishing and to eliminate overcapacity From now on, subsidies should be used for sustainable fisheries only; Illegal fisheries must be banned, and we need regional agreements with businesses to achieve this; Accelerating ratification of agreed mechanisms for improved fisheries practices to make the fisheries sector more sustainable, and tackling pollution; A stronger recognition of the impact of climate change on the oceans is crucial; The oceans must be a special focus in the United Nations Sustainability Objectives. Cross-boundary partnerships At the summit more than 10 new commitments for public-private partnerships were entered into, leading to action in many places around the world. Today the following partnerships will be announced: Mauritius, the Seychelles and the labelling non-profit organisation Marine Stewardship Council (MSC) will start working at certification of fish species and sustainable fisheries in the Indian Ocean; Conservation International will further develop the Ocean Health Index with partners; Rockefeller Foundation and the Netherlands pledging funding support of 250,000 euros to WorldFish and FAO to produce a Roadmap for the Future of Fish. Together with the Netherlands, the WNF will start working on a study into the effectiveness of international ‘Marine protected areas’. The Netherlands had already announced it is going to work together with Indonesia to prevent fish wastage, and with Grenada to protect the coral. There are also partnerships to better exchange the available data and to promote the recovery of fish populations.

UQ- International Efforts Now

Massive steps being taken to stabilize ocean health and sustainability

Dr. Sylvia A. Earle, National Geographic Society Explorer-in-Residence, November 1, 2013, “Indispensable Ocean: Aligning Ocean Health and Human Well-Being”, Accessed May 4, 2014, http://newswatch.nationalgeographic.com/2013/11/01/indispensable-ocean-aligning-ocean-health-and-human-well-being/
So, I was cautiously optimistic when potential partners met in Washington, DC in April, 2012 followed in June at the Rio+20 Summit with the formal launch of the GPO, now a growing alliance of more than 140 countries, international organizations, civil society groups and private sector interests committed to alleviating poverty while addressing threats to the health, productivity and resilience of the ocean. It is mobilizing finance and solutions at an unprecedented scale, focusing on problems including overfishing, habitat destruction, and pollution that affect communities, countries and global prosperity. Early in 2013, I was asked to be part of a panel of 21 ocean-minded individuals with distinctly diverse backgrounds from 16 countries. This Blue Ribbon Panel was charged with guiding investments by the GPO—and others—that would take into account ecological, economic and community sustainability. I participated in most of the intense electronic exchanges and meetings in Asia, Africa, and the US where leaders in government, science, industry, conservation and social justice analyzed, scrutinized, sometimes agonized and finally rationalized weighty subjects, skillfully kept on point though the superhuman patience and diplomatic skill of the Chairman, Australian scientist Dr. Ove Hoegh-Guldberg and the supporting staff from the US Academy of Sciences and the World Bank. The resulting report, Indispensable Ocean: Aligning Ocean Health and Human Well-Being, has just been released. It is a small document crammed with big ideas, a useful distillation of serious deliberations aimed at finding solutions of concern to all, emphasizing the power of public-private partnerships. There is guidance here, whether your primary focus is on sustaining profitable extraction of wildlife from the sea, looking to the ocean as a source of oil, gas or minerals, or seeking support for protection of the ocean’s biodiversity and fundamental life-support functions. It is encouraging to see the World Bank making a serious effort to invest in maintaining the blue part of the planetary portfolio that not only underpins human health, wealth and security, but keeps us alive as well.

UQ- Whale Populations on Brink

Whale populations are down now—every whale death matters

Michael Bastasch, writer for The Daily Caller, April 11, 2014, “Global warming? Blue whales crushed to death by heavy Arctic sea ice”, Accessed May 4, 2014, http://dailycaller.com/2014/04/11/global-warming-blue-whales-crushed-to-death-by-heavy-arctic-sea-ice/

Climate scientists may worry that global warming is melting the Arctic, but tell that to the blue whales that were crushed to death by heavy North Pole ice. Global News reports that several endangered blue whales were found dead in ice pack off the coast of Newfoundland, Canada “probably crushed to death by ice.” One researcher with Department of Fisheries and Oceans (DFO) “spotted nine dead whales while flying over the ice, about 40 nautical miles west of Cape Anguille.” The blue whales were about “the length of two school buses”, or about 66 feet long, according to the DFO. Blue whale deaths along the Newfoundland coast aren’t all that rare, says the DFO, as there have been more than 50 recorded entrapments since the 1800s. “But the blue whale entrapment events have all happened in this part of the southwest coast of Newfoundland,” the DFO’s Dr. Jack Lawson told Global News. “We’ve taken to calling it the whale trap.” “Because of the geography of the area, he said, strong easterly winds can push ice from the Strait of Belle Isle out away from shore and into the open water,” Global News says. “That opens up a channel whales can swim into to feed. Blue whales are known to feed in the area around this time of year, feasting on the first spring bloom of shrimp.” Lawson said that if a westerly wind comes along “it’ll actually move the ice close into the shore and crush them, which is what we think happened to these nine whales.” The whale deaths are a huge blow to the northwest Atlantic blue whale population — of which there are only about 250, so these deaths make up about 4 percent of the population. This year has been particularly hard for them since the sea ice has been much heavier.