Advanced Search architecture Big Box bad advice



Yüklə 0,94 Mb.
səhifə1/21
tarix31.10.2017
ölçüsü0,94 Mb.
  1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9   ...   21
    Bu səhifədəki naviqasiya:
  • Click

Slate.com


Table of Contents

Advanced Search


architecture

Big Box



bad advice

Stop Picking Stocks—Immediately!




blogging the bible

Is Jeremiah a Traitor?




chatterbox

Bush's Baby Einstein Gaffe




chatterbox

The Academy's Fatty Problem




chatterbox

O.J., Volume 2




corrections

Corrections




culturebox

Women in Love




culturebox

Men Without Tights




day to day

For Their Consideration




dear prudence

Time Bomb




dvd extras

Replaying Brando




explainer

USC Loses the Championship!




explainer

Who Owns the Unabomber's Writings?




explainer

Is Dakota Fanning in Kiddie Porn?




family

Hitting Bottom




fighting words

Guilty Bystanders




foreigners

Gone but Not Forgotten




history lesson

How Vietnam Really Ended




hollywoodland

The Empty I.M. Pei Building




hollywoodland

Please Don't Make Me See Babel




human nature

Lucky Stroke




human nature

Girl, Interrupted




idolatry

Blogging the New Season of American Idol




in other magazines

Faddy Diets




jurisprudence

Diagramming Sentences




kausfiles

Bold, Conclusive Disasters




low concept

Wiki-Parenting




medical examiner

What a Long Strange Trip It's Been




mixing desk

jTunes



moneybox

Look Who's Starting a Hedge Fund!




movies

Men With Guns




movies

The State of the Oscar




podcasts

Plastered, Hammered, and Other Euphemisms for Drunk




poem

"Sitting in the Last of Sunset, Listening to Guests Within"




politics

Dispatches From the Scooter Libby Trial




politics

Lame Duck Soup




politics

The Libby Trial




politics

Picking Scooter's Peers




press box

The Lies of Ryszard Kapuściński




press box

Unspeak From the Readers




press box

The Devil's Lexicon




recycled

E. Howard Hunt's Final Confession




sports nut

The Saints Go Marching Home




summary judgment

Go With God




technology

The Verdict on Vista




television

The Perkiness Never Stops




the big idea

He's Back!




the book club

American Islam




the has-been

Goats Don't Answer Letters




the highbrow

Dakota Fanning




the zeitgeist checklist

Zeitgeist Checklist: Barack Obama, Presidential Explorer




today's blogs

Surging Disapproval




today's blogs

Cedar Chips Are Down




today's blogs

Dream Deferred




today's blogs

She's In



today's papers

Dead or Alive




today's papers

Cheney in Wonderland




today's papers

A Modest Proposal




today's papers

State of the Union: Irate




today's papers

Deadly Pretenders




today's papers

Hillary's Everest




today's papers

Lust and Marriage




war stories

He Still Doesn't Understand the War




Advanced Search
Friday, October 19, 2001, at 6:39 PM ET

architecture
Big Box
A San Francisco museum reinvented.
By Witold Rybczynski
Friday, January 26, 2007, at 7:10 AM ET


Click here to read a slide-show essay about Herzog & de Meuron's new de Young museum in San Francisco.

.

.



.

.

bad advice


Stop Picking Stocks—Immediately!
Why the world's greatest stock picker stopped picking stocks, and why you should, too.
By Henry Blodget
Monday, January 22, 2007, at 4:14 PM ET

The most dangerous investment advice is often that which seems most sensible, which is why the worst investing counsel you will likely ever receive is that you should try to pick "good" stocks and sell "bad" ones. You will get this advice in one form or another from innumerable sources, including (some) investment advisers, friends, colleagues, Wall Street, and the investment media. You should ignore it.

Since the dawn of investment time, great stock pickers (there are some) have been revered, and even most novices can proudly recite picks that have produced mountainous returns. ("I bought Google at $85!") Unfortunately, what is smart (or lucky) on occasion often proves dumb over time, and, in the end, most stock pickers do worse than if they had never tried to pick stocks at all. Despite snagging the occasional ten bagger, for example, even professional mutual-fund stock pickers still have depressingly poor odds of beating the market once their losers and costs are taken into account (between 1-in-4 and 1-in-40, depending on how you measure performance). If you pursue a stock-picking strategy, you are almost certain to lag the market.

The problem for investors is that even though stock-picking usually hurts returns, it's extremely interesting and fun. If you are ever to wean yourself of this bad habit, therefore, the first step is to understand why it's so rarely successful. The short answer is that the overall market provides most investment returns, not particular stock picks, so most stock pickers get credit for gains that came merely from being invested in stocks generally. Second, competition among stock pickers is so intense that it is extraordinarily difficult for any one competitor to get a consistent edge. Third, although it is relatively easy to pick stocks that beat the market before costs (all else being equal, you have about even odds of doing this), it is much harder to do so after costs. Even if you pick stocks well enough to boost your pre-cost return by a couple of points, the expenses you rack up along the way (research, trading, taxes, etc.) will usually more than offset your gain.

Most stock pickers believe that they are among the tiny minority of investors who can beat the market after costs, and, for inspiration and encouragement, they point to legends such as Warren Buffett and Benjamin Graham. What such investors often don't know is that even Buffett has said that the best strategy for most investors is to buy low-cost index funds and that the great Benjamin Graham eventually changed his mind about the wisdom of traditional stock-picking. Graham, you may remember, is considered one of the greatest stock pickers of all time, the man who, in the 1930s and 1940s wrote two classics on intelligent investing and whose security-analysis techniques are still taught in most serious investment classes. But in 1976, shortly before his death, Graham told the Journal of Finance the following:

I am no longer an advocate of elaborate techniques of security analysis in order to find superior value opportunities. This was a rewarding activity, say, 40 years ago, when [the bible of fundamental stock analysis, Graham and Dodd's Security Analysis] was first published; but the situation has changed. I doubt whether such extensive efforts will generate sufficiently superior selections to justify their cost.

What did Graham mean when he said that "the situation has changed"? Why did he conclude—more than three decades ago—that stock-picking practices that had defined intelligent investing in the 1930s were, by the 1970s, no longer worthwhile?

First, in the seven decades since Graham wrote Security Analysis, the stock market has gone from being a playground for amateurs to a battlefield dominated by full-time professionals. One result is that pricing errors that once might have gone unnoticed for months in Graham's day are now discovered and exploited instantly. Second, the amount of information available about the most obscure stock today dwarfs what was available about even the bellwethers a half-century ago, making it harder to dig up information that other investors don't know. The moment the information is released, moreover, it is dissected, discussed, and debated by thousands of analysts, until most reasonable conclusions that can be drawn from it have been. Today's technology also allows even part-time investors to screen tens of thousands of stocks in dozens of markets in the time it would have taken a Graham-era analyst to compute the "net current assets" of a single company.

Third, inside information that used to be quite valuable is now illegal to trade on. And, finally, the establishment of research centers such as the Center for Research in Security Prices (CSRP) has allowed analysts to study markets and investing in ways that the young Benjamin Graham could only have dreamed of—and, in so doing, to assemble a body of knowledge that makes much of the "investment wisdom" of the early 20th century seem as primitive and unscientific as bloodletting.

Benjamin Graham's "deathbed" quote is occasionally taken to mean that he completely repudiated his former work by suggesting that stock analysis is worthless. In fact, he just advocated a more diversified and high-level stock selection strategy. Specifically, Graham recommended screening stocks using simple valuation and fundamental criteria and then buying large groups of them, the same way a modern "passive" fund (such as a value-oriented index fund) does. What Graham did "recant" was the idea that by studying companies in detail, one could identify a few super-promising opportunities that could safely deliver market-crushing returns.

The stock-picking mystique is so deeply entrenched in our financial culture that it feels like heresy to suggest that it is, on balance, dumb. The facts are clear, however. For the vast majority of investors—including professionals—stock-picking efforts waste both money and time.




Yüklə 0,94 Mb.

Dostları ilə paylaş:
  1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9   ...   21




Verilənlər bazası müəlliflik hüququ ilə müdafiə olunur ©muhaz.org 2020
rəhbərliyinə müraciət

    Ana səhifə