The historical and projected energy consumption by gas ducted heaters in Australia and New Zealand has been estimated using a stock/sales model that is combined with various appliance and usage attributes. The total estimated Australian annual energy consumption by gas ducted heaters is shown in Figure , with energy consumption estimated to grow from 49 PJ pa in 2000 to 80 PJ pa in 2025. The increase in energy consumption is largely due to the increasing stock of gas ducted heaters.
Figure : Gas Ducted Heaters - Australian Annual Energy Consumption by Category 2000 - 2025
The estimated energy consumption of GDH in New Zealand is shown in Figure . Total consumption is projected to grow from 1 PJ in 2000 to 1.2PJ over the period 2009 to 2012, and then decline to 1 PJ by 2025, due to a declining stock of gas ducted heaters.
Figure : Gas Ducted Heaters - New Zealand Annual Energy Consumption by Category 2000 – 2025 note the scale is in TJ for better separation of trend lines
The sales of gas ducted heaters in Australia are expected to continue to grow at a modest pace, but to continue to decline in New Zealand, as shown below.
Figure : Gas Ducted Heaters Annual Sales 2000 to 2025- Australia
Figure : Gas Ducted Heaters Annual Sales 2000 to 2025- New Zealand
Eco Pacific (commenced operating in 2006 purchase Stadt Industries business).
Major Suppliers- New Zealand
Warm Air (Brivis);
Ducted Heating Supplies (Braemar);
Energy Products (Braemar and Lennox);
Complete Heat (Braemar), and
Abergas with Happy Home outlets (Bonnaire Vulcan)
Note: All suppliers also operate in Australia.
Installers/Contractors: consist of more than 300 small to medium sized contracting businesses in Australia and also large number of small to medium sized contractors in New Zealand.
Duct and accessory suppliers: Polyair, Paltech, Advantage Air, Westaflex, Bradflow, Vic Air Supplies, Air Plus, and The Ventilation Warehouse.
The market segments by sales numbers can be defined as:
New homes builder market 50%
Renovations making up 20% to 25%
Replacement in existing homes (25 to 30%)
The breakdown of sales in Australia indicated about 80% of units are sold in Victoria, 10% in ACT, 5% in NSW and the balance in SA, NT, WA and Tasmania. The growth in air conditioner sales has probably has impacted on GDH sales, reducing their growth rate. Sales of gas ducted heaters are presently above 50,000 p.a. and are assumed to grow slightly at 2.5% p.a. from 2008, based on current trends.
A different sales picture occurs in New Zealand, as sales have been declining since around 2004 and are forecast to continue to decline at around 3%, though interviews with industry representatives suggest this decline is now not occurring. Current sale are around 1,000 p.a. The vast majority of gas ducted heaters sold in New Zealand are imported from Australian manufacturers/suppliers with a very small portion of commercial heaters, such as gas-electric roof top packaged and unit/duct heaters, imported from North America.
The average life of gas ducted heaters is between 15 to 25 years, with the industry sources suggesting that about 50% of the heaters are replaced after 20 years. The implication of this is that in Australia the total installed stock of gas ducted heaters will continue to grow given the current sales volumes, and the efficiency of these heater is of additional importance given the relatively long life of the heaters. However, the sales forecast in New Zealand is unclear so the number of GDH may or may not peak in the next few years.
In terms of the efficiency trends of gas ducted heaters, the older standard efficiency heaters of 1 to 2 stars have become largely obsolete over the last 10 years. There are only mid and high efficiency heaters now in the market with a range of models from 2.4 to 5.5 stars. High efficiency heaters estimated to be around 25% of total sales in 2008/09.
In terms of Seasonal Operating Efficiency, the range of efficiency of models is from 59% to 90%. The high efficiency models have minimal scope to improve technical efficiency, perhaps up to 95%, but the mid-range efficiency GDH have the potential to considerably improve from 70% to 85%. The figure below indicated the distribution of star rating by capacity of GDH.