Contributions

Region	Chick pea	Cow pea	Ground nut	Lentil	Pearl millet	Small millet	Pigeon pea	Sorghum	Soy bean
Total
Cereal-root crop mixed	SSA	32	2,983	2,949	1	4,649	128	78	9,594	295	20,709
Maize mixed	SSA	107	387	977	7	655	432	431	1,976	309	5,281
Agro-pastoral millet/sorghum	SSA	1	3,489	1,751	0	7,551	0	8	5,596	108	18,504
Pastoral	SSA	21	2,070	725	7	4,798	9	0	2,955	14	10,599
Rice-wheat	SA	1,966	0	277	977	4,012	144	543	966	362	9,247
Rainfed mixed	SA	4,062	4	4,014	595	2,628	1,697	2,149	4,226	7,276	26,651
Dry Rainfed	SA	1,030	0	1,168	0	1,148	68	735	3,829	210	8,188
Total		7,219	8,933	11,861	1,587	25,441	2,478	3,944	29,142	8,574	99,179
Total GLDC ecologies		5,146	8,546	10,607	603	20,774	1,902	2,970	26,200	627	84,651

The semi-arid and sub-humid dryland agroecologies — agro-pastoral millet/sorghum, pastoral, rainfed mixed and dry rainfed farming systems, as per FAO characterization⁴⁸ — are where most of the relevant crops are grown and hence much of GLDC research will be implemented in these farming systems. However, these crops are not all grown exclusively in these systems. Grain legumes are extensively intercropped or rotated with maize in the humid tropics of Africa and in rotation with rice in South Asia — in the maize-mixed, rice-wheat and cereal-root crop mixed systems (Table 1).

In terms of the full portfolio of agri-food system CRPs, there is clearly a close connection of GLDC to the on-farm research being undertaken in CRPs RICE, WHEAT, MAIZE and ROOTS, TUBERS & BANANAS (Section 1.7). These CRPs have agreed to take responsibility for farming systems research on how legumes are managed in combination with their dominant crops. It is crucial, however, that breeding priorities for GLDC crops grown in these dominant systems are fed back into GLDC research priorities.

An outlier in Table 1 is the large area of soybean grown in rainfed mixed systems of SA. Here there are large research investments on soybean by the private sector, alongside global investments in GMO soybean by the USA, Argentina, Brazil and China. Despite the growing demand in SSA for new high-yielding soybean varieties — the region imports about 72% of its soybean requirements — there is limited investment in breeding by the private sector for conventional soybean improvement. Hence, the National Systems and local seed companies rely on CGIAR germplasm⁴⁹. Consequently, for prioritization, soybean in SSA is considered, but not in SA.

b) Value of production

A congruence analysis⁵⁰ on the economic importance of 9 crops in 14 countries is provided in Table 4. The total value of production is slightly lower in SA than in SSA, and split evenly between ESA and WCA. Total value of production in the crop by country observations is circa US$44 billion per annum. Six crops account for 94% of the value of production in Table 2.

Table 2. Relative economic importance of select crops in 2014 aggregated across 14 countries – Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, India, Kenya, Malawi, Mali, Mozambique, Myanmar, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal, Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda
Rank	Crop	No. of countries grown	Value of production (US$ million)	Share of value of production (%)	Cumulative share
1	Groundnut	10	10,680	24.2	24.2
2	Sorghum	8	9,087	20.6	44.8
3	Chickpea	6	7,730	17.5	62.4
4	Pearl millet	8	7,165	16.2	78.6
5	Pigeonpea	7	3,612	8.2	86.8
6	Cowpea	8	2,992	6.8	93.6
7	Finger millet	4	1,339	3.0	96.6
8	Lentil	2	978	2.2	98.8
9	Soybean	6	511	1.2	100.0
TOTAL		59	44,094	100.0

c) Foresight analysis

Foresight analysis of demand and supply of commodities indicates where high future demand and/or significant supply deficits are projected for each combination of crop and country. Such analyses consider historical trends in productivity, assumed continued returns from R&D investment, and the impacts of projected climate change along with changes in population and income. Accordingly, a foresight report on the full matrix of crop and countries in scope for GLDC was commissioned to guide prioritization⁵¹.

Projections of aggregate demand for dryland cereal in SA will be higher than the future production for both 2025 and 2040 (Figure 4a). The demand-supply gap is widening between both periods. However, the demand in SSA will be equal to the production for both 2025 and 2040 periods, but this masks substantial differences in terms of deficit across countries in this vast continent. The demand will increase from 65 million tons in 2025 to 93 million tons in 2040. The demand for grain legumes grows much faster in SA than the production and it increases the demand-supply gap in the future with current level of productivity growth in grain legumes (Figure 2b). The increased production of aggregate grain legumes in SSA is mainly from the area expansion of legumes.

The foresight analysis indicates that demand for sorghum in SA (India) will increase by 2040, but the production in future will not be sufficient to meet this growing demand (see report³⁵ for details). In SSA, especially in WCA (Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, Nigeria), the demand for sorghum will increase and the demand-supply gap will widen in the near future with the current level of productivity growth. For millets, demand will increase in India and SSA, with more than 50% of the world millet demand in 2040 being from WCA (especially Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal). Millet demand in India will increase in future at a slower rate. Demand for sorghum and millets is high in several ESA countries (Ethiopia, Sudan, Uganda, Tanzania) with some supply deficit is projected.

Among grain legume crops, more than 90% of world total demand for chickpea, pigeonpea and lentils would be from the SA region. The chickpea demand in SA (India, Myanmar) will increase in the future but the increase in production will not be sufficient to meet the growing demand in the region and so a demand-supply gap will widen assuming current productivity growth. Likewise, pigeonpea demand will increase, both in SA (India, Myanmar) and in ESA (Kenya, Malawi, Tanzania, Uganda), but the productivity growth will not be sufficient to meet growing demand. For lentils, the widest gap between production and supply of lentil is observed in India, where imports of this commodity will grow around 40% between 2025 and 2040. In ESA, lentils net trade will be negative in 2025 and 2040 which indicates its relevance, especially in Ethiopia.


Figure 4: Projected supply and demand by region in 2025 and 2040 (‘000 MT) of aggregate a) dryland cereals (sorghum and millet) and b) grain legumes (chickpea, cowpea, lentils, pigeonpea and soybean). Source: IMPACT version 3.3, IFPRI, based on SSP2 with no climate change³⁵.
For cowpea, SSA would account for about 94% of the world’s demand by 2040, the bulk of which would be from WCA (Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, Nigeria). Nigeria is the largest cowpea consumer and producer in the world, but the gap between production and demand could reach 20% of total demand by 2040. Groundnut demand for Africa is projected to increase with the major demand (more than 90% of Africa demand) from WCA (Burkina Faso, Ghana, Mali, Nigeria, Senegal) and the residual from ESA (Malawi, Sudan, Tanzania). In South Asia (India, Myanmar), groundnut is important but the growth in demand is stagnant. For soybean, SSA (Nigeria, Malawi, Zambia) has a demand-supply deficit that is growing over the years with very little private sector investment in smallholder production. Africa will be importing more than 90% of its soybean consumption requirements by 2040.