Country of origin information report Turkey March 2007

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General Elections in 2007
3.03 The EIU country report released January 2007 noted that:
“The next general election will be a serious challenge for the government. In

Turkey’s last general election, held in November 2002, the AKP was highly lucky, in that around 45% of the votes went to parties that failed to clear the 10% threshold required to elect any members of parliament. Hence, the AKP won a massive majority, with 363 of the 550 seats, on only 34.3% of the poll. It cannot assume a repeat of this performance. According to opinion polls, the main opposition party, the nominally centre-left Republican People’s Party (CHP), is unlikely to score more than around 20%. However, either or both of two other parties ‘the ultra-rightist Nationalist Action Party (MHP) and the moderate centre-right True Path Party (DYP)’ might clear the 10% threshold. If only one of them does so, the AKP will probably stay in power, albeit with a sharply reduced majority. If both of them do so, it will probably have to form a coalition. In this scenario, the AKP would almost certainly prefer a coalition with the DYP, since the MHP is fiercely nationalist (for instance, opposing EU accession) and its leader, Devlet Bahceli, would be a difficult coalition partner. The outcome of the general election could be affected by the AKPs choice of president, as well as the state of play in Turkeys EU accession negotiations.” [108] (p8)
3.04 The 2007 EIU report further stated that:
“The first serious domestic test that the government will face will be the election of a new president in May 2007, when the present incumbent, Ahmet Necdet

Sezer, will complete his seven-year term. Under the constitution, he cannot run

for a second term, and his successor must be elected by parliament, if necessary by a simple majority. The president has limited constitutional powers, but the office has considerable symbolic value, especially in the eyes of secularists in the army, the judiciary and large parts of the state administration and general public, who are deeply suspicious of the AKP!s Islamist origins and suspect its ultimate intentions. In recent weeks Mr Sezer has urged that an early general election be held before May, so that the next president could be elected by the new parliament. However, the president has no powers to call for an early election unilaterally: this can only be done by parliament in effect, the AKP. Mr Erdogan has firmly resisted the president’s call. He has no interest in calling an early election, so the suggestion will almost certainly fall by the wayside.” [108] (p7)
European Union Reforms 2006
3.05 The 2007 EIU country report stated that:
“Attempts to persuade Turkey to meet the EU’s requirement intensified in the second half of 2006, but by the time the European Commission published its annual report on Turkey’s progress towards membership on November 8th 2006, the Turkish parliament had still not ratified the additional protocol. As a result, the European Commission put forward recommendations on November 29th, which were endorsed by EU ministers of foreign affairs on December 11th and by the European Council on December 14th-15th, that talks should be suspended on eight ‘chapters’ of the acquis communautaire the body of EU law, which Turkey is required to adopt to become a member. The suspended chapters cover the free movement of goods, transport, the customs union, agriculture, fisheries, foreign relations, financial services and the right to establish businesses in other EU countries. Talks on the other 27 chapters can go ahead, but the European Council stated that no chapters could be closed until Turkey had carried out its obligations under the additional protocol (so far, Turkey has concluded negotiations on one chapter, science and research, which was provisionally closed in June 2006).” [108] (p14)
3.06 The EIU report further noted that:
“The Council asked the European Commission to decide whether this had been done in its annual reports on Turkey’s progress towards accession in late 2007,

2008 and 2009 (implying that the Council realised that this could be a long, drawn-out process). On the question of human-rights reforms in Turkey, the

Council recognised that progress had been made, but regretted that the pace of reform had slowed down in such areas as freedom of speech and religion, women’s rights, the rights of minorities and labour unions, and civilian control

over the military (October 2006, The political scene). In the months preceding the summit, European attitudes towards Turkey had hardened, reflecting weak public support for the general principle of further EU enlargement and for Turkish membership in particular, in several member states. On the Turkish side, there had been a slowdown in the reform programme that the EU is demanding (especially in the area of human rights). There has also been declining public support in Turkey for EU accession, according to opinion polls.” [108] (p14)
3.07 In an article written by Bernard Bot Foreign Affairs Minister of Netherlands originally published in the Washington Times, 26 December 2004 accessed via the Netherlands Ministry of Foreign Affairs website noted that:
“The decision to start negotiating has done away with a great deal of psychological and political uncertainty about whether Turkey can be considered part of Europe. The reforms undertaken in Turkey in the past two years have been truly impressive. The EU wants to ensure reform will continue. The prospect of EU membership is already transforming Turkey, and the country’s accession will likewise profoundly affect the EU. Turkey’s accession will also strengthen the EU’s political and military capacity to fight terrorism and promote international peace and stability.” [2c]
3.08 The European Commission (EC) Turkey 2006 Progress Report, released on 8 November 2006, noted that:
“Turkey has not fully implemented the Additional Protocol extending the EC-Turkey Association Agreement to the ten Member States that acceded on 1 May 2004, which it had signed in July 2005 and which enabled the accession negotiations to start. Turkey has continued to deny access to its ports to vessels flying the Republic of Cyprus flag or where the last port of call is in Cyprus.” [71a] (p25)