Risk ranking model employed
While each risk ranking approach has its strengths and could be used as a tool for ranking relative risks due to seafood consumption in Australia, none met the requirement of providing a broad three-tier categorisation of seafood industry sectors which could be used in a through-chain assessment of risk. Specifically, a need was identified for a broad comparative method able to take into account a large number of hazards having widely different adverse health consequences. This report uses a method based on consideration of the elements of risk as defined by Codex: the likelihood (probability of occurrence) and severity of adverse health effects (illness).
In deriving estimates of the likelihood of illness due to the presence of a particular hazard in a seafood commodity, available data on seafood consumption and the prevalence and levels of hazards in seafood in Australia were taken into consideration. However, significant data gaps have militated against completion of a formal quantitative exposure assessment for each hazard/commodity pairing considered. In addition, specific characteristics of each hazard, factors along the supply chain that might influence the final risk at point of consumption, and recent epidemiological data were all taken into account. Estimates of the severity of adverse health effects were based on an accepted international scheme, which was adapted to take into account hazards not originally included in that scheme (for example, heavy metals, algal biotoxins, helminthic parasites).
A decision matrix was developed to provide broad qualitative rankings of public health and safety risks due to food safety hazards associated with seafood sectors or commodities. The matrix combines the estimates of severity and likelihood of adverse health effects to arrive at a relative risk ranking. The method used to estimate the severity and likelihood of adverse health effects and to combine these into risk rankings are described below.
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