Ecv ice Sheets Technical Proposal

3.3WP3000 - Prototype demonstration and impact assessment

3.3.1WP3100 - Deformation time-series production

The deformation products identified in WP 1100 shall be generated for the experimental dataset defined in WP 1300, using the combined SAR and GPS measurement algorithm developed and validated in WP 2300. Concerning the SAR measurements, for each available radar track, azimuth and LoS time-series shall be generated respectively with the multi-temporal MAI method developed in WP 2100 and the enhanced multi-temporal DInSAR techniques developed in WP 2200.

3.3.2WP3200 - Hazard model production

In a first stage of the project, the procedure described in 3.2.4 will be tested and applied to a list of selected sites. The test phase is required in order to fully explore the formal correctness of the procedure and to identify critical issues. In a second phase, the procedure will be extended to larger areas, such as at a regional scale. In this phase will be possible to produce hazard map and curves for a grid of points. Finally, all input parameters that will be used for the application to the test areas in order to perform the validation tests of the results, according to several approaches proposed in literature. The final product will be therefore tested and validated for a large portion of the Italian territory.

An evaluation of the reliability of deformation-based PSHA is mandatory in order to qualify the goodness of the elaboration and to orientate improvements. At this stage, we plan a procedure devoted to this task, which is based on the comparison of the hazard estimates with empirical observations (e.g. strong-motion data and macroseismic intensities) on some test areas. Testing deformation-based model against other available seismic hazard models will result in a rank of the tested models and a deep analysis of their performance will eventually allow a best tuning of the deformation-model setup.

3.4WP4000 - Scientific roadmap

The outcomes of this project shall have a strong potential for immediate application.
In this WP, as required by the SoW, the relevant products of the project analysis shall be made available publicly to the scientific community. This shall apply to the final PSHA maps, as well as to the interseismic deformation measurments carried out with InSAR and GPS.
As a roadmap for the project follow-up, we envision the following actions:

1. 
   The project results will be presented at international conferences, published on peer-reviewed journals, and disseminated through all methods to the scientific community.
   
2. 
   INGV is already a partner of the GEM initiative. We will extend the contribution to the results of the present project. This will ensure the maximum interaction with the scientific community directly involved in the assessment of SH.
   
3. 
   Using the collaborative platform of GEM, we will request feedbacks and reviews of our methods as demonstrated on our test cases, but we will also help other scientists to apply the same methods to their test areas, to verify robustness of the results.
   
4. 
   Towards the end of the project we will prepare a document to define in detail the Scientific Roadmap, defining the strategic actions for fostering a transition of the methods and models developed in the project from research to operational activities.
   

3.5WP5000 - Project management

For this project two distict management figures are proposed: a Science Leader (Dr. S. Salvi) and a Project Manager (Dr. J.P. Merryman Boncori).
The main responsibilities of the Science Leader shall be:

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  Managing the interfaces with other relevant research groups, networks and scientific bodies, coordinating with other external activities, both inside and outside of Europe
  
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  Together with the Project Manager ensure a timely deliverance of the project deliverables, achieval of milestones, proper quality of project outputs and attendance of meetings
  

The Project Manager will complement the Scientific Leader by taking care of the management of the project activities (separating the programmatic activities from the scientific activities). The typical activities to be performed include:

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  Project Management
  
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  Develop and maintain the Project Management Plan (PMP)
  
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  Review of documents
  
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  Control of costs, progress of the project, maintenance of the schedule
  
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  Document control
  
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  Maintenance of Action Item List
  
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  Update planning
  
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  Write progress reports (Monthly and Quarterly reports, as stated in the SoW)
  
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  Write Minutes of Meetings (MoMs)
  
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  Schedule progress meetings (project internal and with customer)
  
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  Schedule review meetings
  
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  Compile review documentation package
  
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  Manage subcontractors
  
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  Support the Science Leader in coordinating with other, relevant ongoing national, European Commission funded and international projects
  
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  Write CCN, DCN, DCR if necessary
  
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  Update Risk Register
  
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  Develop and maintain Project Website
  

4Expected outcome and added value

In terms of scientific results, the project shall have the following potential outcomes:

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  Improved understanding of the SAR contribution to the improvement of PSHA models
  
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  Feasibility study of a novel multi-temporal InSAR azimuth deformation retrieval algorithm
  
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  Feasibility study of an Intermittent Small Baseline approach for interseismic displacement retrieval
  
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  A novel SAR/GPS integration approach
  
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  Establishment of modeling procedures to exploit spatially dense deformation datasets in deriving recurrence relations for a given seismic source
  

In terms of data production, we expect to produce the most accurate inter-seismic velocity maps of the areas of interest to be produced, integrating results from several SAR sensors and GPS. These velocity maps shall be made publicly available. Concerning the seismic hazard model for the study areas, this shall represent a significant improvement with respect to previously available hazard maps. As an example, the national seismic hazard model makes use of tectonic zonation, that represents an important source of subjectivity and, therefore, of uncertainty in the final estimates. On the contrary, the use of deformation field data from GPS and SAR overcomes any zonation, allowing to obtain estimates (and derived parameters) of the deformation field that are independent of subjective analysis. In turn, alike standard PSHA approaches, deformation-based seismic hazard analysis will provide outcomes in terms of probability of exceedence in given time frames of several ground-shaking parameters of engineering interest, such as PGA, PGV and spectral acceleration at various periods.

In terms of outreach, project progress, its various steps and final results will be presented at several national and international conferences dealing with seismic hazard assessment; we will propose to organize sessions on innovative PSHA methodologies. At a national level, close collaboration with the INGV Seismic Hazard Center (Centro Pericolosità Sismica) is planned. The novelty of the project activities shall also allow the generation of several peer-reviewed publications, concerning both the methodologies and the data analysis.