Европейска схема
Table1. Planned anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases, Gg
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- 1.2 Principles, assumptions and data applied to determine the contribution of installations covered by the Directive
- Determination of the total quantity of allowances to be allocated
Table1. Planned anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases, Gg
1.2 Principles, assumptions and data applied to determine the contribution of installations covered by the Directive
Determination of the total quantity of allowances to be allocatedFigures in row “Overall CO2 emissions from sectors covered by the Scheme” in Table 1 and the next rows represent basic information for determination of emission allowances. Those emissions are allocated to participant and not participating installations, and from them allowances are set aside for both a part of necessary calculative reserves and reserves of emission allowances for later allocation, and the allowances to be allocated under the current allocation plan. In accordance with the requirements of the EU, the NAP plans for equal effort, equal right and equal obligation to changes (increase or reduction) in emission levels for the two groups of emission sources (participants and not participants) and preservation of the correlation of their emissions. In determining the emissions from sectors covered by the Scheme and installations participating and not participating in the Scheme, the proportion of emissions from installations covered by the Scheme for each sector to the total quantity of emissions from all installations in the respective sectors for the country in 2003 is determined. This proportion is defined as (share) of participants in the scheme for 2003 from total sector emissions. By multiplying emissions planned for the period 2007–2012 (Table 1) by the shares by sectors, the volume of emissions by sectors and total for the county are determined that could be covered by the Scheme from a macroeconomic viewpoint (Table 2). The table shows the two corrections – for early credits and compulsory measures – by which the quantity of allocated allowances is reduced. Table 2. Quantity of emissions by sectors total for the country, which could be covered by the Scheme from a macroeconomic viewpoint, Gg
In accordance with the requirements of the EU, the NAP plans for equal effort, which means equal right and equal obligation to changes (increase or reduction) in emission levels for the two groups of emission sources (participants and non participants) and preservation of the correlation of their emissions (Table 2, p.1.1.). After the determination of the various types of reserves for later allocation and the calculative reserves, a table is structured that contains the overall quantity of emission allowances by sectors and reserves for the country, which could be allocated within the Scheme from a macroeconomic viewpoint. The overall volume of allowances to be allocated to registered participants is determined by recalculating the projected and corrected quantity of sectors emissions (Table 2) is re-calculated through setting aside out of the allowances of electric power sub-sector the quantity of emission reductions for cancellation of allowances for indirect double counting of emission reductions as a result of JI projects that were not accounted for in the macroeconomic forecast. As a result of the "top-down” emission projections, after forming the respective reserves of emission units and their subtraction from , the overall amount of emissions which, from a macroeconomic viewpoint can be allocated between participants in the Scheme for the period 2007–2012 – (j=2007 - 2012) and the various types of reserves are determined. In Table 3, the preliminary allocation of those allowances among sectors is determined (from a macroeconomic viewpoint). Table3. Volumes of allowance by sectors and total reserves for the country, which could be allocated in the Scheme from a macroeconomic viewpoint, Gg
If the draft Decision of the European Commission regarding avoidance of double counting of GHG emission reductions is approved, then, in compliance with the requirements laid down in the Decision, the respective quantity of allowances will be set aside for JI projects with a direct double counting effect. In determining the total quantity of allowances for allocation to installations, Bulgaria applies a combination of two approaches – the “historical emissions level” approach and the “forecast” approach. Historical emissions level – under this approach, the total number of allowances is determined as the share of emissions emitted to the ambient air from installations covered by the Scheme in the respective country. For Bulgaria, the historical emissions level approach is used to define the base year. The determination of the quantity of allowances and their relation to the emissions of the sources outside the Scheme is based on the following sources of information:
The National GHG Inventory for the year 2003 is an official document and the operators sign a Declaration on the accuracy of data. Those data is compared to data from the National Statistical Institute, the integrated permits and other available documents. Data about installations is collected pursuant to the EPA (SJ 75/27.09.2005). The MOEW, in cooperation with the EEA, the RIEWs, other ministries and stakeholders, has compiled a list of potential participants on the basis of available information. Announcements have been published in the mass-media and at the MOEW web-page. The questionnaire used to collect data about installations has been developed by the consultants and approved by members of the Working Group. Gathered information has been used by the consultants from the Energy Institute, PLC to calculate the CO2 emissions of installations covered by the Scheme based on data on fuel and raw materials consumption and production outputs. Installations whose operators have provided sufficient and correct data in the questionnaire are included in a list of participants and receive allowances in the current plan. The total volume of emissions of registered installations for 2003 is calculated as a sum of the volumes of emissions from registered individual installations for 2003 (as provided in the questionnaire and corrected during the verification process). , where “i” is the serial number of the installation in the Scheme. The volume of the reserve for not registered (delayed) installations is defined as 5% of emissions from registered installations:
Such a reserve is included for each year of the period 2007-2012, in order to allocate emission allowances to installations, which will register after 30 November 2005. Apart from determining the overall volume of emissions of the installations in 2003, data from the registered installations is also used to determine the volumes of emissions by sectors, according to the classification of the International Panel on Climate Change in order to compare those volumes with the volumes received during the inventory of GHG emission for 2003. Emissions from the following groups of sources have been determined:
The emissions calculated in this manner by groups of sources, are compared with the emissions in the 2003 inventory (Table 4). Table 4. Emissions of participating sectors and participating installations for 2003, kt CO2
The discrepancies in the aggregated overall volumes of emissions by groups of sources compared to the 2003 inventory have been assessed and, where necessary and possible, the reasons for such discrepancies were eliminated. Examples of such reasons include:
both in the inventory and in the installation data. Therefore, some operators of installations were invited to correct submitted data. As a result, the total volume of emissions from installations registered in the Scheme for 2003 () and the volume of the reserve for delayed installations () have been determined. It is expected that the total volume of emissions covered by the Scheme for 2003 is equal to the sum of the volume of emissions from registered installations () and the reserve (). “Forecast” approach, where the total volume of emissions of installations is determined on the basis of their share of projected development based on “business as usual”. In applying the forecast approach, the “top-down” and “bottom-up” principles are applied. “Top-down” forecasts include official data on the expected GDP and GVA growth by sectors. Based on those data an assessment is carried out of the relation between the growth of the GVA and the change in the production volumes in the sectors, covered by the Scheme. Another important component of the forecasting approach is the projection of the fuel and energy balance of the country (final consumption of fuels and energy by sectors, least costs development of the energy sector, primary gross consumption of fuels and energy). The described forecasts are developed using the “business as usual” scenario. Projections take into account important policies with impact on climate change, such as policies laid down in the Second National Plan on Climate Change 2005-2008, the Strategy on Energy of Bulgaria, the National Long-term Programme on Energy Efficiency until 2015, the National Long-term Programme on Promotion of Renewable Energy Sources 2005-2015 (in a process of development), approved and supported joint implementation projects. Applicable Directives 2003/96/ЕС, 96/61/ЕС, 2003/17/ЕС, 2002/91/ЕС, 2001/80/ЕС, 1999/13/ЕС, 2001/77/ЕС are taken into account, with the respective implementation timeframes and agreed transition periods. The projection of the trends in emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases has been taken into consideration in the process of developing the NAP, as shown in Figure 1 below: Figure 1 Yüklə 1,24 Mb. Dostları ilə paylaş:
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