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Reconciliation of the quantity of emission allowances by sectors

The above “bottom-up” projections by sectors, sub-sectors and total is compared to the macroeconomic projection derived in p.2., and presented in Table 20. At this stage, both the differences in the two projections – bottom-up and top-down, and the difference between the forecast for 2004 (top-down) and the reported data for installations for the same year - should be overcome. In case of difference in data for 2004, a correction of the “top-down” projection is undertaken.

When the differences in the projections for the period 2005-2012 are insignificant, the decision for a compromise projection could be taken at the level of the Inter-ministerial working group and between ministries.

When the differences are considerable and lead to a risk of non-implementation of the commitments under the Kyoto Protocol, a complete and detailed revision of “bottom-up” forecasts and projections of sectors is undertaken. The revision covers an assessment of the estimated production volumes and of the compliance of those volumes with the state policy taken into account in the macroeconomic “top-down” forecast. The branch organizations are also involved in discussions on the revision.

As a result of the activities mentioned above, it is expected that a consensus will be reached regarding projected CO₂ emissions by sectors and sub-sectors for the period 2007–2012. Determined projections of emission volumes are presented in a table, which repeats the structure of Table 6 in section 3.1. Compromise volumes of emissions (allowances) are expressed by, where “j” means the specific year, and “g” – a specific sector.

Table 17. Comparison between the macroeconomic projection and the bottom-up projection for registered installations

№	Year	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012
1	Overall allowances for registered installations – macroeconomic projection	49 470 560	50 161 260	52 583 634	58 304 621	60 343 473	59 864 886
	Overall allowances for registered installations – bottom up projection	50 180 444	54 022 797	55 709 952	61 243 618	64 315 800	63 635 910
2.1	Energy activities, including
2.1.1	Electric power – macroeconomic projection	22 326 044	21 907 164	23 125 522	26 268 762	28 840 447	27 355 107
	Electric power – bottom-up projection	19 957 347	23 314 214	24 444 958	28 182 136	31 137 556	31 454 792
2.1.2	Combined production – macroeconomic projection	8 061 028	8 161 776	8 240 503	8 411 681	6 994 499	7 097 189
	Combined production – bottom-up projection	8 980 512	9 118 680	9 306 839	9 466 113	9 501 113	8 452 229
2.1.3	Heating power – public sector – macroeconomic projection	828 190	871 531	914 871	958 212	1 001 552	1 044 893
	Heating power – public sector – bottom-up projection	660 188	671 668	686 867	695 115	706 538	717 656
2.1.4	Heating for industrial purposes
	Production of chemical products and rubber – macroeconomic projection	324 655	340 368	355 702	370 719	385 469	399 989
	Production of chemical products and rubber – bottom-up projection	365 140	397 017	397 017	397 017	397 017	397 017
	Production of foods and beverages – macroeconomic projection	39 739	41 792	43 872	45 801	47 903	49 909
	Production of foods and beverages – bottom-up projection	73 531	77 529	80 617	88 161	91 385	92 433
	Production of woods and wood products (except furniture) – macroeconomic projection	92 309	99 905	107 500	115 095	122 691	130 286
	Production of woods and wood products (except furniture) – bottom-up projection	84 830	85 803	86 777	87 750	88 724	89 697
	Production of textile and textile products (except for apparel) – macroeconomic projection	23 867	25 483	27 098	28 714	30 330	31 945
	Production of textile and textile products (except for apparel) – bottom-up projection	27 824	28 837	29 850	30 863	31 876	32 889
	Production and casting of non-ferrous metals – macroeconomic projection	129 870	132 863	135 629	138 204	140 617	142 888
	Production and casting of non-ferrous metals – bottom-up projection	187 925	174 098	178 985	184 139	187 363	190 902
	Production of machines, equipment and household appliances – macroeconomic projection	28 835	29 836	30 773	31 657	32 493	33 289

№	Year	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012
	Production of machines, equipment and household appliances – bottom-up projection	47 007	94 377	96 613	98 128	99 529	100 958
	Health protection and social activities – macroeconomic projection	3 765	3 962	4 159	4 356	4 553	4 750
	Health protection and social activities – bottom-up projection	3 684	4 094	4 094	4 094	4 094	4 094
	Agriculture and hunting and related to them services – macroeconomic projection	7 185	7 561	7 937	8 313	8 689	9 065
	Agriculture and hunting and related to them services – bottom-up projection	9 791	10 312	10 599	10 599	10 599	10 599
	Distribution of natural gas – macroeconomic projection	182 488	182 488	182 488	182 488	182 488	182 488
	Distribution of natural gas – bottom-up projection	181 094	181 094	181 094	181 094	181 094	181 094
3.	Refineries – macroeconomic projection	6 752 931	7 158 107	7 587 593	8 042 849	8 525 420	9 036 945
	Refineries – bottom-up projection	7 410 007	7 418 019	7 426 031	7 434 043	7 442 055	7 442 055
4.	Cement– macroeconomic projection	4 236 386	4 559 839	4 980 585	6 721 709	6 919 724	7 117 740
	Cement – bottom-up projection	4 395 057	4 520 494	4 743 225	6 286 333	6 286 333	6 286 333
5.	Lime – macroeconomic projection	562 869	593 746	615 529	637 312	659 094	680 877
	Lime – bottom-up projection	554 321	594 884	602 879	619 977	620 365	621 012
6.	Cellulose and paper – macroeconomic projection	375 463	412 976	480 258	509 054	537 076	562 773
	Cellulose and paper – bottom-up projection	305 711	320 015	363 226	368 699	373 772	376 119
7.	Glass – macroeconomic projection	354 053	357 450	361 257	364 733	367 930	369 065
	Glass – bottom-up projection	440 180	439 369	439 369	439 369	439 369	440 225
8.	Ceramics – macroeconomic projection	154 328	157 212	160 342	162 805	165 106	167 268
	Ceramics – bottom-up projection	236 221	240 901	258 695	265 887	269 799	275 603
9.	Ferrous metallurgy – macroeconomic projection	4 986 555	5 117 201	5 222 016	5 302 157	5 377 393	5 448 420
	Ferrous metallurgy – bottom-up projection	6 260 075	6 331 393	6 372 218	6 404 099	6 447 219	6 470 203

* Note: The two projections for the electric power sector differ considerably because the projection for the installations assumes that the installations will not improve their indicators in the period 2003-2012. The macroeconomic forecast assumes that as a result of the rehabilitation of power capacities, installations’ indicators will improve and specific emissions for the production of kWh electric power will be reduces by some 10 %.
For 2007, the difference between the aggregated projected emissions by installations and by macroeconomic forecast exceeds 10%, therefore it is necessary to apply a compromise projection for the emissions in 2007.

Table 18. Compromise projection for CO₂ emissions by sectors for 2007, t (allowances)

№	Sector/Year	2007
	Energy activities, including
1.	Electric energy	22 326 044
2.	Combined production	8 061 028
3.	Heating power, public sector	744 189
4.	Heating power for industrial purposes	933 379
5.	Refineries	6 752 931
6.	Cement	4 395 057
7.	Lime	554 321
8.	Cellulose and paper	305 711
9.	Glass	397 116
10.	Ceramics	195 275
11.	Ferrous metallurgy	4 986 555
	Total	49 651 606

2.2 If the potential, including the technological potential, of activities to reduce emissions was taken into account at this level, please state so here and give details in Section 4.3 below.

The technological potential is not taken into account at this level.

2.3 If Community legislative and policy instruments have been considered in determining separate quantities per activity, please list the instruments considered in Section 5.3 and state which ones have been taken into account and how.

The effects on emissions of carbon dioxide (both in terms of reduction and increase) resulting from the implementation of Directives 2003/96/ЕС, 2002/91/ЕС, 2001/77/ЕС, 96/61/ЕС, 2003/17/ЕС, 2001/80/ЕС, 1999/13/ЕС, have been taken into considerationduring the development of the National Allocation Plan. See also section 5.3.

2.4 If the existence of competition from countries or entities outside the Union has been taken into account, please explain how.

Bulgaria’s NAP does not include special measures to assess the competition from countries outside the European Union. The Plan will be co-ordinated with the Commission for Protection of Competition before it is submitted for approval to the Council of Ministers.