Graduate studies committee

D. RESEARCH
1. Institute Sponsored Research
Major Research Project: For the past three years Dr. Samir Makdisi has been co-managing a major research project on: “Transition from autocracy to Democracy in the Arab World.” It is supported by an IDRC grant and housed at the Institute of Financial Economics. The team of researchers participating in this project includes AUB faculty and scholars from abroad.
The primary objective of the project, and outgrowth of an earlier one on “explaining the democracy deficit in the Arab World”, is to identify the conditions for transitions towards greater democratic space in the Arab region taking into account the uprisings that have occurred in a few of the Arab countries and led to the ouster of long standing autocratic orders though their eventual outcome uncertain is yet to be fully determined: Tunisia (Dec. 2010), Egypt (January 2011) followed by Libya and Yemen in. Since then an ongoing tragic civil war has been raging in Syria.
The project follows a two-tier approach in analyzing the question of transition: two thematic cross countries papers and six case studies. The first thematic cross-paper tests a hypothesis reflecting key features of the political transition processes in the Arab World; it feeds not only on the literature pertaining to this subject but also on insights gleamed from the recent Arab uprisings. The second thematic papers examine the conditions under which democratic breakthroughs in the Arab countries are likely to stabilize. Building on the thematic papers the case studies attempt to identify country specific factors pushing for transition in the countries concerned and analyze the prospects of for democratic consolidation in the post uprising phase.
The participants in the project presented the major findings of their respective papers at the conference held at AUB at the end of January 2015. This was intended as a prelude to finalizing the papers in first half of 2015 after which

begins the task of preparing a book manuscript for publication tentatively titled “Deconstructing Arab Democratic Transition”

1. The book manuscript pertaining to the IDRC supported major research project that professor Samir Makdisi has been managing on “Transition from Autocracy to Democracy in the Arab World” was finalized; it will be published by Cambridge University Press under the title of Democratic Transitions in the Arab World. 15 researchers from AUB and other institutions participated in this project.
2. A new research project on “Lebanon’s Consociationalism, Macro Economic policy and Sustainable Development” is under preparation. The project seeks to explain why and how the prevailing consociational governance in Lebanon, has impacted negatively the country’s macroeconomic and developmental policies and to propose fundamental reforms that would address socio-economic and policy gaps and lead to sustainable national development.
3. A third major research project is also underway. In the wake of the 2008 U.S. financial crisis, and the recent political and social turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa Region, the IFE has launched a new research project on the theme of the 13^th Biennial APF conference addressing those asymmetries in post financial, political and debt crisis. The emphasis of this new research project is on appropriate economic policies needed to address the sovereign debt crisis of the EU, the persistently social and political unrest in the Middle East, the quantitative easing measures in the US and the EU and their implications on exchange rates, growth and unemployment. The project will seek to answer mainly the following question: “How can countries in transition curb macroeconomic imbalances (budget and balance of payment deficits) at a time of low economic growth, high unemployment, rising inflation and rising social demands for inclusion?” This question is fundamentally about the debate over IMF type austerity programs and Keynesian economics. It is part of an ongoing debate from Greece to Egypt. Researchers are encouraged to assess the experiences of the two types of policies with a view to drawing lessons for the future.
2. Fellows’ On-Going Research/Forthcoming Publications
Isabelle Gaysset
1. “Endogenous Growth and Youth Unemployment in the South Mediterranean Countries”.
Samir Makdisi
1. “Revisiting Lebanon’s Post Civil War Economic Development: Identifying Gaps and Proposing Reforms for Sustainable Development”.

2. “Arab Development in Global Context”, the major objective of this research is to identify the new developmental paradigm of the Arab countries where the process of democratic transformation has been taking place.

3. “Macro Economic and Reconstruction Policies in the Post Uprising Phase: Consolidating National Advancement”.

4. “Democratic Transitions in the Arab World”, Editor and Contributor (with I. Elbadawi), Cambridge University press, Forthcoming.

Simon Neaime
1. Financial Exclusion and Stability in MENA: Evidence from Poverty and Inequality, Institute of Financial Economics Research Project (with I. Gaysset).

2. Sustainability of Budget Deficits and Public Debts in the Selected European Union’s Countries: An Overlapping Generation Approach, Institute of Financial Economics Research Project, (with L. Michelis).

3. Currency Devaluation in a Model with Habits and Durability in Consumption, Institute of Financial Economics Research Project.

4. The Greek Debt Crisis: Structural VAR Approach, Institute of Financial Economics Research Project (with I. Gaysset).

5. Financial Crises and Contagion Vulnerability of MENA Stock Markets, Emerging Markets Review, forthcoming 2016, Institute of Financial Economics Research Project.

6. Syria the Painful Transition Towards Democracy, in Democratic Transition in the Arab World, S. Makdisi and I. Elbadawi Eds. Cambridge University press, forthcoming 2016.

6. “Relationship between Output and Unemployment: A Bound Testing Approach for Lebanon”, Institute of Financial Economic Project (with M. Monterro).

E. OTHER ACTIVITIES
1. Staff Activities
Samir Makdisi
Conferences and lectures¹

1. Conference on “Spring To Come” presented paper on “The Arab Uprisings: Interaction of Politics and Economics”, International Institute for Social History, Amsterdam, April 16, 2016.

2. Conference on “Post-Conflict Reconstruction in MENA”, Presented a paper on “Reflections on the Reconstruction Challenges of the Post Uprisings Period” European Institute for Mediterranean (IEMED), Barcelona, April 11, 2016.

3. Invited to Chair a session at the Middle East Economic Association 15^th International Annual Conference, on “The Impact of Oil Prices on the Economic Growth and Development of the MENA Region,” Doha, Qatar, March 23-25, 2016.

4. Invited to Chair a session at The Economic Research Forum 22^nd Annual Conference, on “Towards a New Development Agenda for the Middle East,” and participated in the Board of Trustees meeting as a board member, Cairo March 19-21, 2016.

5. Invited to Chair a session at Forum of Euro-Med Economic Institutes (FEMISE) Annual Conference on “Two Decades after Barcelona: Rethinking the EU-Med Partnership,” and participated in the FEMISE Board meetings as a board member, Athens, February 13-14, 2016.

6. IFE International Panel on: “Democratic Transitions in the Arab Region: Aspirations and Reality,” organizer and moderator of sessions, AUB, November 27, 2015.
Simon Neaime
1. Invited by the Economic Research Forum to attend and act as discussant at ERF’s 22nd annual conference, to be held in Cairo, Egypt, March 19-21, 2016.

2. Invited to attend the FEMISE Annual Conference and Chair a session on: “Two Decades after Barcelona: Rethinking the EU-Med Partnership, Athens, Greece, February13-14, 2016.

3. Energy Finance in the Middle East: Uncertainties and Opportunities, Moderator: Investors and Markets, American University of Beirut, January 22, 2016.

4. Invited by the Central Bank of Italy, International Economic Analysis and Relations Department, to participate in a panel and present a paper on the : “Greek Debt Crisis”, Rome, Italy, January 11-12, 2016.

5. Invited by the University of Verona to participate in a workshop on : “Financial Crises” and give a talk on the “Sustainability of European Public Debts”, Rome, Italy, January 13 -16, 2016.

6. “Debt Sustainability in Selected European Union Countries”, a Paper presented at the Third Paris Financial Management Conference, IPAG Business School, Paris, France, December 14-15, 2015.

7. Invited to attend the 11^th Rendes Vous De la Mediterranee: “Reinforcing the Partnership between the European Union and the Maghreb through Vocational Training and Entrepreneurship, IPAG Business School, Nice, France, November 7, 2015.

8. “Habits and Durability in Consumption and the Effects of a Currency Devaluation”, a paper presented at the 6^th International Research Meeting in Business and Management, July 2-3, 2015.

9. Invited by the University of Nice Sophia Antipolis to present the paper: “Are MENA Stock Markets Mean Reverting?” A Monte Carlo Stimulation, July 1, 2015.

10. Theses and Project Supervision as Main Advisor:

Line Khouri (2015), Impact of Interest Rates Fluctuations on Stock Market Performance: Empirical Evidence from the MENA Region.

Malak Mourtada (2015), One Child Policy and Old Age Dependency Effect on the Chinese Provincial Economic Growth.

Samar Jaafar (2015), Fiscal Convergence and Prospects of a Fiscal Union in the European Union.

Fidaa El Alam (2015), The Spectre of Eurozone Deflation.

Christelle Muawad (2016), The Chinese Slowdown’s Impact on Global Markets : An Emprical Analysis.

Ali Hayek (2016), Mergers in the Banking Sector: Why Do Some Fail?

Chadi Stephan (2016), the Impact of Oil Price Shocks on the GCC Stock Markets.

Karen El-Hajj (2016), Income Convergence in the MENA Region: An Empirical Analysis.

Jana Chalak (2016), the Determinants of FDI in the MENA Region.

Maria Al-Mawlawi (2016), Financial Integration of GCC Stock Markets.

2. Institute Activities
Public Lectures and Workshops: The Institute organized (in cooperation with other Departments) the following public lectures/workshops:
Public lecture on: “Consociational Oligarchies-The Difficult Choice Between Democracy and Peace”: Speaker Dr. Daniel Bochsler, April 2016, IFE, Nicely Hall 316.

The Institute organized workshop on: “Democratic Transitions in the Arab Region, Aspirations and Reality”; Participants included IFE Fellows (Prof. Samir Makdisi and Prof. Simon Neaime) and speakers from: AUB (Dr. Tarik Mitri and Dr. Fawwaz Traboulsi), Bank of Lebanon (Prof. Youssef El Khalil), Center for Global Development, Washington DC, (Dr. Ibrahim Elbadawi), Ford Foundation, Cairo, (Dr. Noha El-Mikawy), El Manar University, Tunisia, (Dr. Mongi Boughzala), Universite Saint-Joseph, Beirut, (Dr. Fadia Kiwan), Economic Consultant, Cairo, (Dr. Ali Abdelgadir Ali), McMaster University, Canada (Dr. Atif Kubursi), and Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, Paris, (Dr. Raed Safadi), November 27, 2015, College Hall, Auditorium B1.

Seminar on: “Consolidating Democracy in Tunisia: The Economic Dimension”: Speaker Dr. Mongi Boughzala, November 2015, IFE, Nicely Hall 316.

Seminar on: “Weak Beta, Strong Beta: Factor Proliferation and Rank Restrictions” with J.M. Dufour and Marie-Claude Beaulieu: Speaker Dr. Lynda Khalaf, October 2015, IFE, Nicely Hall 316.

Other activities: A number of outside experts were invited to give talks to graduate students in financial economics on various topics of relevance to their studies. Furthermore, “in house” discussion meetings on topics pertaining to ongoing research were held.
3. Lecture and Working Paper Series:
As part of its role in making available ongoing research, within and outside the University related to economic issues of special concern to developing countries, the Institute has initiated in 2003 a series of guest lecture and working papers made available in print as well on its website (linked in Spring 2007 to the GDN website). The series has been steadily gaining recognition abroad. Except for minor editorial changes, the lectures are circulated as presented at public lectures organized by the Institute while the working papers reflect ongoing research intended to be polished and developed and eventually published. The series’ advisory committee includes: I. Elbadawi, (The World Bank), H. Esfahani (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign), S. Makdisi, Chair (AUB) and S. Neaime (AUB). As of end of June, 2007 the series’ papers included (in reverse chronological order):
1. Mongi Boughzala (Al Manar University, Tunisia), and Saoussen Ben Romdhane (University of of La Manouba, Tunisia) Transition from Autocracy to Democracy in Tunisia, Factors Underlying the Tunisian Uprising and the Prospects for Consolidating the Transition To Democracy (2015, No. 3)

2. Simon Neaime (AUB), and Marcus Marktanner (Kennesaw State University, US and AUB) The Role of Capital Flows for Economic Development in the MENA Region, (2015, No. 2)

3. Samir Makdisi (AUB), On Transition, Democracy, and Socio-Economic Justice in the Arab World, (2015, No. 1)

4. Ibrahim Elbadawi (Center for Global Development, Washington DC), and Atif Kubrusi (McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario), Kuwaiti Democracy: Illusive or Resilient? (2014, No. 1)

5. Samir Makdisi (AUB), and Youssef El Khalil (Bank of Lebanon and AUB), Will Lebanon transit to a fully-fledged Democracy? Economic and Political Perspectives, (2013, No. 1)

6. Summaries of presentations made at a workshop organized jointly at AUB by the Institute of Financial Economics and the Konrad Adenauer Stiftung, The Arab Uprisings-What Happened, What’s Next? (2012, No. 1)

7. Samir Makdisi (AUB), Remarks on Autocracies, Democratization, and Development in the Arab Region, (2011, No. 1)

8. Samir Makdisi (AUB), Development without Democracy in the Arab World, (2009, No.2)

9. Jean Philippe Platteau (University of Namur, Belgium) ,The Causes of Institutional Inefficiency: A Development Perspective, (2009, No. 1 )

10. Marcus Marktanner and Nagham Sayour (AUB), Initial Inequality and Protectionism: A Political-Economy Approach, (2008, No. 3 )

11. Simon Neaime (AUB), Twin Deficits in Lebanon: A Time Series Analysis, (2008, No. 2)

12. Samir Makdisi and Marcus Marktanner (AUB), Trapped by Consociationalism: The Case of Lebanon, (2008, No. 1 )

13. Salwa Hammami and Simon Neaime (AUB), Measurement of Financial Integration in the GCC Equity Markets: A Novel Perspective, (2007, No. 4)

14. Samir Makdisi (AUB) , Rebuilding without Resolution: The Lebanese Economy and State in Post-Civil War Period, (2007, No. 3)

15. Salwa Hammami (AUB) , Horse Race of Utility-Based Asset Pricing Models: Ranking through Specification Errors, (2007, No. 2)

16.Henrik Huitfeldt (European Training Foundation and Nader Kabbani (AUB) , Returns to Education and the Transition from School to Work in Syria, (2007, No. 1)

17.Marcus Marktanner and Joanna Nasr (AUB), From Rentier State and Resource Curse to Even Worse? (2006, No. 3)

18.Pierre-Guillaume Meon (University of Brussles)and Khaled Sekkat (University of Brussles) , Institutional Quality and Trade: Which Institutions? Which Trade? (2006, No. 2)

19.Mario Rui Pascoa (Universidade Nova de Lisboa) and Abdelkrim Seghir (AUB) , Harsh Default Penalties Lead to Ponzi Schemes ,( 2006, No.1)

20.Ibrahim Elbadawi (The World Bank) and Samir Makdisi (AUB), Democracy and Development in the Arab World, (2005, No.2)

21.Nada Mora (AUB), Sovereign Credit Rating:  Guilty Beyond Reasonable Doubt? (2005, No.1)

22.Simon Neaime (AUB), Portfolio Diversification and Financial Integration of MENA Stock Markets, (2004, No.3)

23.Ibrahim Elbadawi (The World Bank), The Politics of Sustaining Growth in the Arab World: Getting Democracy Right, (2004, No.2)

24.Mustapha Nabli, Jennifer Keller and Marie-Ange Veganzones, (The World Bank),Exchange Rate Management within the Middle East and North Africa: The Cost to Manufacturing Competitiveness, (2004, No. 1)

25.Samir Makdisi and Richard Sadaka (AUB) ,The Lebanese Civil War 1975-1990,(2003, No. 3)

26.Richard N. Cooper (Harvard University), Prospects for the World Economy, (2003, No. 2)

27.Hadi Salehi Esfahani (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign), A Re- examination of the Political Economy of Growth in the MENA Countries, (2003, No. 1)
Several papers, from outside and within the university, are currently under consideration for inclusion in the series.

F. PUBLICATIONS
Samir Makdisi
1. “On Transition, Democracy, and Socio-Economic Justice in the Arab world”, Institute of Financial Economics, AUB, Lecture and Working Paper Series No. 1, 2015.

2. “The Unraveling of Arab Autocracy: Socio-Economic Factors in Context”, in After the ‘Arab Spring’: Development Challenges and Solutions, ed. Ali Kadri, Middle East Institute, National University of Singapore, Palgrave Macmillan, 2015.

3. “Democratic Transitions in the Arab World”, Editor and contributor (with I. Elbadawi), Cambridge University press, Forthcoming, 2016.

Simon Neaime
1. “Syria the Painful Transition Towards Democracy, in Democratic Transition in the Arab World”, S. Makdisi, and I. Elbadawi Eds. Cambridge University Press, forthcoming 2016.

2. “Financial Crises and Contagion Vulnerability of MENA Stock Markets”, Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, forthcoming 2016.

3. The Effects of European Austerity Measures on the South and East Mediterranean Countries, the European Institute for the Mediterranean, 12^th Edition’s year Book, pp. 257-262, 2015.

4. “Are MENA Stock Markets Mean Reverting? A Monte Carlo Simulation”, Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, Vol., 13, pp.74-80, 2015.

5. “Sustainability of Budget Deficits and Public Debts in Selected European Union Countries”, Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, Vol., 12, pp.1-12, 2015.

G. FUTURE PLANS
1. As part of planned university-wide academic activities to celebrate AUB’s 150^th anniversary, the Institute of Financial Economics is co-organizing the Athenian Policy Forum 13^th Biennial Conference on economic, Political, and financial and Debt Crises, Athens, Greece, July 7-9, 2016. The IFE circulated to AUB faculty a call for papers for the conference and has committed to fund the travel and accommodation expenses for those faculty members who have papers accepted for presentation at the conference. Dr. Martin Monterro and Darius Martin and the IFE’s Post-Doctoral Fellow Dr. Isabelle Gaysset have received full IFE travel and accommodation funding to attend the conference and present their papers. One faculty member from the OSB Dr. A. Karathanasopoulos has also an accepted paper in the conference. The IFE has committed to offer him partial financial support.

2. The IFE has successfully been granted along with its European Partner Research Institutes a research grant from the European Union in the amount of Euros 2,000,000 to be managed over the next five years. Future Research activities will include a call for research proposals, funding of various research projects, conferences, workshops, guest lectures and other research activities.

3. Apart from its own resources, the Institute will continue to seek additional research funds from outside sources that will help it launch new research projects some of which will be carried out in collaboration with outside research centers and experts. For the coming year a few projects have already been planned

4. Seminars/ workshops and public lectures will continue to be organized periodically dealing with major economic/financial issues facing Lebanon, the Arab World and developing countries more generally.

5. The Institute will continue to host visiting scholars and Post-doctoral Ph.D. students as research associates in the coming academic year. In addition to their own research activities, they will give talks on selected economic and financial topics.

6. The Institute of Financial Economics is planning for two major conferences. The first scheduled in principle for September 2016 to be jointly organized with the Euro-Med. Forum of Economic Institutes (FEMISE). The Second is scheduled for December 2016 jointly organized with the North American Econometric Society.

The IFE has been making substantial progress towards fulfilling its objectives: its research and office infra-structure has been continuously upgraded, particularly during the current academic year, while its specialized library now includes many titles and reference sources. The Institute’s seminary/Library room serves as the hub of graduate courses in financial economics/economics as well as for lectures and seminars by economics faculty members and invited outside speakers. Not only has the Institute’s research activity expanded substantially, but increasingly it is becoming a recognized university center for research in economics and development with emphasis on the Middle East region. In the process it has established important contacts with academic institutions and research institutes abroad. This constitutes solid grounds upon which to continue to build for future expansion in its research and scholarly activities.
Simon Neaime

Director

THE KAMAL A. SHAIR CENTRAL RESEARCH SCIENCE LABORATORY

1. 
   SUMMARY OF PROGRAMS
   

The Kamal A. Shair Central Research Science Laboratory (KAS CRSL) at the American University of Beirut provides access to state of the art instrumentation, which is essential for a thriving university research program. The KAS CRSL includes instruments such as NMR spectrometer, X ray diffractometer, Flow Cytometer with sorter, Fluorescence imaging microscope, Pulsed laser deposition system, Quantitative PCR, Scanning Electron Microscope SEM and other equipment. This research facility compliments other specialized departmental and faculty research laboratories, and as such aims at promoting individual, as well as joint and multidisciplinary co-operative research.

The KAS CRSL is therefore designed primarily to serve AUB faculty members, their graduate students, and their research collaborators both from the industry and from other universities within Lebanon, the Middle East region or internationally. Furthermore the KAS CRSL will contribute to excellence in undergraduate teaching by providing students with hands-on learning experience on advanced instrumentations, and a head start in scientific research.

The KAS CRSL serves research in most disciplines including the basic sciences (biology, chemistry, geology, and physics), medicine, health sciences, agricultural and food sciences, and engineering. Growth, upgrading, and the addition of new instruments to the KAS CRSL will be controlled by research needs and trends. The KAS CRSL is a testimony to AUB’s commitment to provide a most needed research environment for Lebanese and Middle Eastern researchers. It will also represent the backbone of Ph.D. programs at AUB, as it will provide our students with hands on experience and advanced research training similar to that offered at prestigious international universities. Its mission is to give our researchers the edge to compete with international researchers.

2. 
   PERSONNEL
   

1.