Nigeria 2015: analysis of election issues and future prospects
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Web sourcesOfficial sourcesNational Human Rights Commission Independent National Electoral Commission Economic and Financial Crimes Commission Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, 1999 House of Representatives Committee on Diaspora Affairs IMF: Article IV Country Assessments World Bank ECOWAS
ACP Group US-Nigeria Binational Commission USAID: Nigeria “China”, US Energy Information Administration “UK and Nigeria”, UK Government website “Foreign Secretary announces UK support following ministerial on Boko Haram”, FCO press release, 12 June 2014 DFID’s Annual Report and Accounts 2013-14 DFID Nigeria, Operational Plan 2011-2015 DFID Development Tracker website. DFID, Anti-Corruption Strategy for Nigeria, 2013 Cotonou Agreement Africa—EU Partnership European Commission, Trade—West Africa The Nigeria-EU Joint Way Forward, 2009 EU-Nigeria Country Strategy Paper and National Indicative Programme 2008-2013 EU External Action, Nigeria EU-Nigeria National Indicative Programme 2014-2020 Forum on China-Africa Cooperation India-Africa Forum Summit 2011 New Delhi Declaration, 2008 Africa-India Framework for Enhanced Cooperation, 2011
World Bank: World Development Indicators UNCTADstat (foreign direct investment and trade) UN COMTRADE (trade) Other sourcesEuropa World Plus (available through the Parliamentary Intranet) CIA World Factbook Amnesty International Human Rights Watch International Crisis Group 1 Under the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, 1999, the Federal Capital Territory is not defined as one of Nigeria’s states, but the provisions of the Constitution are deemed to apply to it “as if were one of the states of the Federation” (see Chapter VIII, Part 1, Clause 299). 2 L. Ploch, “Nigeria: Current issues and US policy”, Congressional Research Service, 24 April 2013, pp5-6 4 J. Paden, “Midterm challenges in Nigeria: Elections, parties and regional conflict”, United States Institute for Peace, special report 334, May 2013, p3 5 This ruling is being appealed. Some claim that when Jonathan changed his mind and decided to stand for the presidency in 2011, he also promised to only serve for one term. Such an undertaking at the time may have helped to stay the hand of some northerners in the PDP who were opposed to his candidacy. However, he has never publicly confirmed that he made such a promise. 6 See sections 4.3, 4.7 and 4.8 of this paper. 8 “Oil, the political lubricant”, Africa Confidential, 29 August 2014 9 “Ekiti, the shape of things to come”, Africa Confidential, 27 June 2014 10 “Jonathan faces the north”, Africa Confidential, 13 June 2014 11 “Speaker defects to the opposition”, The Herald, 29 October 2014 12 “Nigerian opposition warns against speaker’s arrest”, Agence France Presse, 22 November 2014 13 “Jonathan faces the north”, Africa Confidential, 13 June 2014 14 “After the bombing, Jonathan declares”, Africa Confidential, 21 November 2014 15 “Atiku declares for president on APC platform”, Nigerian Guardian, 24 September 2014 16 “Buhari seeks consensus candidate for APC”, Daily Independent, 5 October 2014 18 Osinbajo’s relatively low profile may explain why several different spellings of his name are in circulation. B. Awoyemi, “Making a case for Pastor (Prof) Yemi Oshibajo to be chosen as the APC VP candidate”, saharareporters.com, 15 December 2014 19 Continuing Boko Haram attacks during this period are covered in sections 4.3 and 4.8 of this paper. 20 Amnesty International alleged in May 2014 that the army had had four hours’ notice of a Boko Haram attack but took no steps to counter it. “Nigerian authorities failed to act warnings about Boko Haram raid on school”, Amnesty International, 9 May 2014 21 A. Noakes, “Nigeria’s Boko Haram ceasefire deal: too good to be true?”, African Arguments, 22 October 2014 22 “Buhari’ll bring back dictatorship – Mu’azu”, The Sun (Nigeria), 21 December 2014 23 “Oil, the political lubricant”, Africa Confidential, 29 August 2014 24 “Nigerian elections swayed by deep pockets”, The Star (South Africa), 10 November 2014 25 J. MacEbong, “Campaign finance reform needed to make political office affordable for all”, African Arguments, 7 January 2015 26 “Armed attacks likely to escalate in 2015, heightening death and kidnap risks to expatriates in southern Nigeria”, Jane’s Intelligence Weekly, 29 October 2014; “Deadly return of political thugs”, Daily Trust, 25 October 2014 27 “Shooting of APC supporters in Rivers”, APC press release, 7 January 2015 28 “Presidency condemns burning of Jonathan’s campaign bus”, This Day, 12 January 2015 29 “Letter from Africa: Nigeria’s internet warriors”, BBC News Online, 23 September 2014 30 “EU, US urge Nigerians to ensure peaceful elections”, Leadership, 22 November 2014 31 “Edwin Clark, mind your utterances”, Sunday Trust, 7 December 2014 32 “Nigeria’s opposition APC implicates ruling party in office raid”, Voice of America News, 24 November 2014 33 “Jonathan, Buhari, 12 others sign undertaking on violence free elections”, Vanguard, 14 January 2015 34 “We will not recognise outcome of any rigged elections – APC”, Leadership, 21 November 2014 35 International Crisis Group (ICG), “Nigeria’s dangerous 2015 elections: limiting the violence”, 21 November 2014, pp i-iv 36 “Political storm warning”, Africa Confidential, 19 December 2014 37 “Nigeria on edge”, Washington Post, 7 January 2015 38 “We won’t postpone Feb polls – INEC”, Vanguard, 7 January 2015 39 Y. Soneye, “Nigeria needs to check into oil rehab now”, African Arguments, 4 November 2014; “Passing the National Health Bill – a giant leap forward”, This Day, 23 December 2014. The National Health Bill guarantees free basic health care provision for all children under five, pregnant women, the elderly and people living with disabilities. This is intended to reinforce a National Health Insurance Scheme that to date has not really been effective. 40 There is considerable doubt in some minds as to whether the remaining girls who were unable to escape shortly after the abduction will ever be freed. Boko Haram claims that all of them have converted to Islam and most have been compelled to marry. J. Zenn, “Boko Haram: recruitment, financing, and arms trafficking in the Lake Chad region”, CTC Sentinel, 31 October 2014 41 Open Government Partnership. “Jonathan’s secret assets deny Nigeria membership of global anti-corruption body”, Premium Times, 5 October 2013. 42 “How strong is northern opposition to Jonathan?”, Daily Independent, 28 October 2014 43 Z. Usman and O Owen, “Incumbency and opportunity: forecasting Nigeria’s 2015 elections”, African Arguments, 29 October 2014 44 “Oil, the political lubricant”, Africa Confidential, 29 August 2014 45 “O’Neill says Jonathan election loss may be Nigeria positive”, Bloomberg, 9 January 2015 46 “After the bombing, Jonathan declares”, Africa Confidential, 21 November 2014 47 At December 2014, there were an estimated 740,000 Internally Displaced Persons across these states. “INEC expresses concern over 740,000 IDPs”, Leadership, 2 December 2014 48 “Political storm warning”, Africa Confidential, 19 December 2014 49 International Crisis Group (ICG), “Nigeria’s dangerous 2015 elections: limiting the violence”, 21 November 2014, p14 50 “Nigeria must brace for surge in Boko Haram attacks, analysts say”, dpa-AFX International ProFeed, 19 December 2014 51 “Boko Haram seizes army base in Nigeria town of Baga”, BBC News Online, 4 January 2015; “Boko Haram crisis: Nigeria’s Baga town hit by new assault”, BBC News Online, 8 January 2015 52 John Campbell, Nigeria: Dancing on the Brink (New York, 2013), pxxiv 53 Y. Soneye, “Nigeria needs to check into oil rehab now”, African Arguments, 4 November 2014. See also sections 2.2 and 4.5 of this paper. 54 John Campbell, Nigeria: Dancing on the Brink (New York, 2013) , pxv 55 The concept of ‘Political settlement’ used in this section of the paper has been defined by its author, the academic Mushtaq Khan, as the “combination of power and institutions that is mutually compatible and also sustainable in terms of economic and political viability”. Khan, “Political Settlements and the Governance of Growth-Enhancing Institutions”, School of Oriental and African Studies, University of London, July 2010. The value of the concept has been questioned by other scholars. For example, see Mick Moore, “What on earth is a ‘Political Settlement’?”, IDS Governance and Development Blog, University of Sussex, 19 September 2012. For a cautiously positive assessment, see Bjorn Dressel and Sinclair Dinnen, “”Political settlements: old wine in new bottles?”, Development Policy Centre, Policy Brief No. 9, February 2014 56 John Campbell, Nigeria: Dancing on the Brink (New York, 2013), pxvii 57 John Campbell, Nigeria: Dancing on the Brink (New York, 2013), p41 58 This typology, while justified in the context of an overview of this kind, is inevitably a simplification of much more complex social and political realities. 59 A. de Waal, “Mission without end? Peacekeeping in the African political marketplace”, International Affairs, 85: 1 (2009), p99 60 John Campbell, Nigeria: Dancing on the Brink (New York, 2013), pxiv 61 The patronage system expanded and became more entrenched following the start of oil production in the 1970s. 62 P. Chabal, Africa. The Politics of Suffering and Smiling (London and Durban, 2009), pp92-3 63 John Campbell, Nigeria: Dancing on the Brink (New York, 2013), p27 64 W. Adebanwi and E. Obadare, “”When corruption fights back: democracy and elite interest in Nigeria’s anti-corruption war”, Journal of Modern African Studies, June 2011, p195 65 Oga is Yoruba for ‘Master’. 66 Campbell claims that, under President Obasanjo (1999-2007), the political system was dominated by “only a few hundred bigmen.” John Campbell, Nigeria: Dancing on the Brink (New York, 2013), p25 67 John Campbell, Nigeria: Dancing on the Brink (New York, 2013), p31 68 John Campbell, Nigeria: Dancing on the Brink (New York, 2013), p28 69 President Jonathan comes from the south-south. “N1.6 Trillion Govt Contracts for 2014 - Niger Delta Gets Lion's Share”, Daily Trust, 31 December 2014 70 K. Meagher, “MINTs and mayhem: in Nigeria the risks are the only things that trickle down”, africanarguments.org, 22 May 2014 71 The Ijaw are the fourth largest ethnic group in Nigeria, comprising an estimated 10% of the population. The three biggest are the Hausa-Fulani (29%), Yoruba (21%) and Igbo (18%). See also section 4.2 of this paper. 72 For a full list of the 492 delegates, see: “Govt names 492 delegates to proposed National Conference – full list”, Premium Times, 6 March 2014 73 “Key National Conference recommendations you need to know”, Premium Times, 21 August 2014 74 John Campbell, Nigeria: Dancing on the Brink (New York, 2013), pxvii 75 International Crisis Group (ICG), “Nigeria’s dangerous 2015 elections: limiting the violence”, 21 November 2014, p4 76 A. Kohli, State-Directed Development. Political Power and Industrialization in the Global Periphery (Cambridge, 2006), p9 77 A. Kohli, State-Directed Development. Political Power and Industrialization in the Global Periphery (Cambridge, 2006), p329 78 T. Mkandawire, “Thinking about developmental states in Africa”, Cambridge Journal of Economics, 25, 2001, p291. This definition is more modest than many of the other definitions, which Mkandawire unrealistically portray the developmental state as some kind of “omnipotent and omniscient leviathan that always gets what it wants”. 79 T. Mkandawire, “Thinking about developmental states in Africa”, Cambridge Journal of Economics, 25, 2001, p289 80 D. Booth, “No time for complacency. Getting governance right for development in Africa”, in Commonwealth Good Governance 2011/12 (London, 2011), pp34-5 (hard copy available from the House of Commons Library). A longer summary of the conclusions of the ODI’s Africa Power and Politics Programme can be found in D. Booth and D.Cammack, Governance for Development in Africa: Solving Collective Action Problems (London, 2013) 81 D. Booth, “No time for complacency. Getting governance right for development in Africa”, Commonwealth Good Governance 2011/12, p34 82 “Nigerian service: Dan Rogger on public vices, hidden virtues and silent voices in the civil service”, Gateway for Africa Blog, 11 June 2014 83 D. Booth, “No time for complacency. Getting governance right for development in Africa”, p34 84 D. Booth, “No time for complacency. Getting governance right for development in Africa”, p35 85 D. Booth, “No time for complacency. Getting governance right for development in Africa”, p35. However, since then Booth has written on a more hopeful note about an effective UK-funded programme operating across ten of Nigeria’s states called the State Accountability and Voice Initiative (SAVI), which he describes as an example of “politically smart, locally led development”. See his article of the same title in African Arguments on 23 October 2014 86 D. Green, “Africa Power and Politics – a great new research programme, with lots to argue with”, From Poverty to Power blog, 15 April 2011 87 It is widely accepted that the countries which led the ‘East Asian economic miracle’ during the 1970s and 1980s (Taiwan, South Korea) were anything but corruption-free during this period of rapid development. For further discussion of corruption in developing countries, including when it is ‘productive’, see the work of Mushtaq Khan – such as this article co-authored with Hazel Grey, “Good governance and growth in Africa: what can we learn from Tanzania?”, in V. Padayachee ed., The Political Economy of Africa (London, 2010) 88 W. Adebanwi and E. Obadare, “”When corruption fights back: democracy and elite interest in Nigeria’s anti-corruption war”, Journal of Modern African Studies, June 2011, p187 89 W. Adebanwi and E. Obadare, “”When corruption fights back: democracy and elite interest in Nigeria’s anti-corruption war”, Journal of Modern African Studies, June 2011, p187. However, Mushtaq Khan and others go so far as to ask whether Nigeria’s main problem is premature democratisation, rather than rampant corruption. They argue that, historically, democratisation has followed economic transformation and it is unrealistic to expect the process to work the other way around. 90 P. Chabal, Africa. The Politics of Suffering and Smiling (London and Durban, 2009), p4 91 A. de Waal, “Mission without end? Peacekeeping in the African political marketplace”, International Affairs, 85: 1 (2009), p101 92 P. Chabal, Africa. The Politics of Suffering and Smiling (London and Durban, 2009), pp17, 173 93 These are the chapter headings used in Chabal’s 2009 book. 94 P. Chabal, Africa. The Politics of Suffering and Smiling (London and Durban, 2009), pp17, 173 95 “Talking it over”, Africa Confidential, 8 July 2005 96 John Campbell, Nigeria: Dancing on the Brink (New York, 2013), pxvii 97 Defined by Businessdictionary.com as “the amount of labor, land, money and entrepreneurship that could be exploited for manufacturing within a country.” 98 The MINT acronym originated in a strategic plan from the Japanese company Panasonic in 2010. They used the term “MINTS + B” to denote Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and the Balkans, parts of the world where growth in sales could be achieved. In May 2011, Fidelity, the large investment company, highlighted the MINT economies in an effort to find markets with strong long-term potential gains for investors. 99 In 2014 Jim O’Neill made a BBC radio series looking at each of the countries, including Nigeria, that form the MINTs. 100 Jim O’Neill, “Nigeria may be one of the top 15 economies by 2050”, Business Report, 9 April 2014 101 PWC, “The World in 2050”, 2011 102 McKinsey Global Institute, “Nigeria’s renewal: Delivering inclusive growth in Africa's largest economy”, July 2014, p.2 103 Using market exchange rate. Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook October 2014 database 104 For more on recent developments in the economy, see section 4.5 of this paper. 105 “Nigeria’s Jonathan Sees Stable Economy, Strong Naira in 2015 ”, Bloomberg, 1 January 2015 106 McKinsey Global Institute, “Nigeria’s renewal: Delivering inclusive growth in Africa's largest economy”, July 2014, pp.37-8 107 IMF, Nigeria: 2013 article IV consultation - staff report, April 2014, p.18 108 US Energy Information Agency, Nigeria country report, December 2013 109 US Energy Information Agency, Nigeria country report, December 2013 110 This GDP estimate includes natural gas production. Source: McKinsey Global Institute, “Nigeria’s renewal: Delivering inclusive growth in Africa's largest economy”, July 2014, p.53 111 UN, World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision 112 McKinsey Global Institute, “Nigeria’s renewal: Delivering inclusive growth in Africa's largest economy” July 2014, p.32 113 World Bank blog Africa Can End Poverty, “Can rapid population growth be good for economic development?”, 15 April 2010 114 World Bank, World Development Indicators [accessed 9 January 2015] 115 Much of information in this section is from McKinsey Global Institute, “Nigeria’s renewal: Delivering inclusive growth in Africa's largest economy”, July 2014, pp.16-25 116 Looney, Robert E.. Economy (Nigeria), in Europa World online. London, Routledge. House of Commons. Retrieved 08 January 2015 from http://www.europaworld.com/entry/ng.ec 117 National Bureau of Statistics, Selected Tables from Job Creation and Employment Survey 3rd Quarters 2014, November 2014 118 World Economic Forum, The Global Competitiveness Index 2014–2015 119 African Development Bank, Nigeria Economic Outlook 2014, p.12 and McKinsey report, p36 120 Global Entrepreneurship Monitor 2013, January 2014 and McKinsey Global Institute, “Nigeria’s renewal: Delivering inclusive growth in Africa's largest economy”, July 2014, p.32 121 McKinsey Global Institute, “Nigeria’s renewal: Delivering inclusive growth in Africa's largest economy”, July 2014, p.31 122 World Bank, Ease of Doing Business (2014) in Nigeria 123 IMF, Nigeria: 2013 article IV consultation - staff report, April 2014 124 World Economic Forum, The Global Competitiveness Index 2014–2015 125 Transparency International, Corruption Perceptions Index 2014 126 World Economic Forum, The Global Competitiveness Index 2014–2015 – Nigeria 127 Looney, Robert E., “Economy (Nigeria)”, in Europa World online. London, Routledge. House of Commons. Retrieved 08 January 2015 from http://www.europaworld.com/entry/ng.ec 128 “Africa's testing ground; Business in Nigeria”, Yüklə 0,56 Mb. Dostları ilə paylaş:
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