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- Bu səhifədəki naviqasiya:
- IMF Working Paper
- JEL Codes
- The Structural View of Foreign Payment Problems along the 2008 Financial Crisis Process in Turkey.
- The Financial Alteration Options of Crisis Process in Turkey towards to Recent Years
- The Appearance of New Foreign Payment Policies to Prevent Financial Matters in Turkey
- Figure 2. The Structural Appearance of New Foreign Payment Policies to Ensure Foreign Balances Stability in Turkey
3. Conclusion Countries, the need to provide sustainable economic developments on international basis to prove their presence in the rapid change of technological change and also it is required to stay up-to-date on innovation process through R&D activities and crucial investments on education. Technological innovations and improvements in the countries' competitiveness in the international arena, has an important place. Developed countries, interested in new technology; developing countries is transferred from developed countries to adapt their technologies to economic policies of the country's economic growth, that is to say development is the acceleration effort. However, instead of consuming transferred technology, it is necessary for developing countries to invest in R&D and higher education to improve new technologies by combining to the production process. New technology for manufacturing basically should be targeted and R&D activities and patent grants as well should be supported by the State. In developed countries, investment in R&D has an important place in their GNP, whereas in developing countries with low R&D investments and lack of high technology, desirable growth rates could not be achieved so far. The increase of R & D spending expected to provide business growth and support the technological development and innovation process. It is important to look at whether the R&D investments and expenditures on educational activities in Turkey has end up with a substantial economic development or growth rate. The analysis uses patent and R&D data for Turkey for the period 1995-2016, in order to determine the causal links between the variables, Granger causality test is used and the findings shows that there is no evidence that increasing R&D investments has enabled sustainable economic growth for Turkish economy for the last decades. This implies that expenditures on R&D does not lead to permanent increases in economic growth provided that there are constant returns to patent grants in terms of R&D facilities. In this study, no significant causality found between R&D expenditures, researcher numbers and economic growth for the last fifteen years in Turkey. References [1] Akıncı, M. & Sevinc, H. The relationship between R&D Expenditures and Economic Growth: the Case of Turkey, 1990 – 2011, The Journal of International Social Research, Volume: 6 Issue: 27, Summer 2013, pp.7-17. [2] Archibugi, D., Mario P., Measuring Technological Change Through Patents and Innovation Surveys, Technovation, 1996:16:9. [3] Boeckholt, P. (1996), Financing innovation in the post-subsidy era – public support mechanisms to mobilize finance for innovation‟ International Journal of Technology Management, Vol 12 (7,8), pp. 760-768. [4] European Patent Office (2011b), European Patents and Patent Applications Statistics 2010, (http://www.epo.org/ about-us/office/statistics.html). [5]Genc, M.C. & Atasoy, Y. (2010) The Relationship Between R&D Expenditure and Economic Growth: Panel Data Analysis, The Journal of Knowledge Economy & Knowledge Management / Volume: V FALL, pp.27-34. [6] Gül, İ. İ. (2009). Innovation, Technoparks and Defence Industry Sector: Case of METU Technocity. Online: Http://www. Ssm. Gov. tr/anasayfa/kurumsal/SSM% 20Dergisi/2009-3/55-59. Pdf (Date: 28.02. 2011). Retrieved from http://www.ssm.gov.tr/anasayfa/kurumsal/SSM%20Dergisi/2009-3/55-59.pdf [7] Kiper, M. (2004).Technology and Technological Transfer Mechanisms, In this Context the Importance of Public Policies, TTGV. [8] Koléda, G. (2008), Promoting Innovation and Competition with Patent Policy, Journal of Evolutionary Economics, 18:433-453. [9] Korkmaz, S. (2010), Research and Development Investments in Turkey and the Relationship Examined between Economic Development with VAR model, Journal of Yasar University 2010 20(5), pp. 3320‐3330. [10] Kutlu, D. D. E., Economical Development and Growth, Anadolu University, Eskişehir. [11] Muslumov, A. & Aras, G., Development of High-Tech Sector all over the World and its Effects on Turkish Technology Sector: A Financial Approach; Information Technologies Conference, May 2002, Denizli-Pamukkale University, http://hdl.handle.net/11376/420. [12] Ndesaulwa, A. P. &Kikula, J., ‘’The Impact of Technology and Innovation (Technovation) in Developing Countries: A Review of Empirical Evidence‘’, (http://ec.europa.eu/public_opi- nion/archives/ebs/ebs_340_en.pdf). Journal of Business and Management Sciences, Vol. 4, No. 1, 2016, pp 7-11. [13] Sungur, O., Aydın, H. İ. & Eren, M. V. (2016), ‘’The relationship among R&D, Innovation, Export and Economic Growth in Turkey: Asymmetric Causality Analysis. [14] Taban, S. & Şengür, M. “R&D And Economic Growth in Turkey”, Journal of Social Science Institute Abant İzzet Baysal University, 2014 No1. [15] Taban, S. & Kar M.(2008), Development Economics, Ekin. [16] Tiryakioğlu, M. (2009), Schumpeter, Innovative and Creative Destruction, (http://ikti- sadiyat.com/2009/03/18/schumpeter- yenilik-ve-yaratici-yikim/ [1]7 Ulku, H. (2004) ‘’R&D, Innovation, and Economic Growth: An Empirical Analysis’’, IMF Working Paper, WP/04/185, September 2004. [18] Zerenler, M., Necdet T. & Esen Ş. (2007), Relationship between Global Technology, Research and Development (R&D) and Innovation, Selcuk Univercity Journal of Social Sciences Institute, 17:653-667. BEYOND THE 2008 FINANCIAL CRISIS: THE NEW POLITICAL ECONOMY OF THE FOREIGN PAYMENT ISSUES IN TURKEY Niyazi ÖZKER Assoc. Prof. Dr., Public Finance Department, Faculty of Economic and Business Administration, Bandirma Onyedi Eylul University – 10200 \ TURKEY, niyaziozker@yahoo.com Abstract In this study, we aim to put forth the new political foreign payments approaches matters in the scope of basic structural evaluations including financial politics alterations in Turkey as a developing country. Hence, the matter of foreign payments balances should be over taken as a the fairly important component and macro financial option in order to cope with the negative remnants of global financial crisis especially for developing countries, like Turkey, after 2008. Financial crisis management has been harmed by the political foreign economically approach especially due to the failed foreign exchange policies in Turkey for a long time. In addition, it appears that Certain financial foreign exchange practices related to foreign payments balances have been meaningless to the financial policies to prevent the effects of 2008 in the deep financial distress. These related results in today's reasons are required to express this current foreign payments issue among current account deficits in the conclusions of new financial analysis. Because, it is understood the current deficits fact that has been directly come into existence via foreign payments levels bring up the meaningful financial affect levels which could be cored with on the economic growth in Turkey and that should be considered in the scope of new foreign payments politics. In this context, it has been considered to put forth required observable indicators of the crisis, and structural severity of the crisis within striking variables that can be linked to these talked of variables. Key Words: Economic Development; Foreign Payments; Political Economy; Financial Crisis; Globalization Process; Foreign Exchanges ; JEL Codes: E62; F31; F38; F62; F65.
After 2008 recent financial crisis in Turkey, the framework of foreign payments balances has largely a important meaningful structure related to unsuitable exchange rate policies and unsustainable debt levels. This fact leads to currency crashes have preceded as well as looked for new debt crisis politics, and which leads us to ask the following some important questions. Is there is a link between foreign currency variables in touch with financial crisis and foreign payments defaults? What must be done to prevent debt crises in Euro zone countries? Alternatively, is it possible to prevent crisis with probably the structural and institutional alterations to the future? As a global financial crisis, 2008 crisis resulted in the important structural and political changes in developing countries like Turkey. Foreign payments risk in connected with government financial applications can arise from a number of sources especially in financial crisis periods, including: First, it is important where the national imports or exports are from. Generally, these countries are in the trouble financial crisis, and some countries that have to cope with in period are (Rose and Spiegel, 2009: 27). On the other hand, where revenue from exports is received in foreign currency in these countries that need the new management issues of foreign payments where other income, such as royalties, interest, dividends etc., is received in foreign currency (Rodrik, 2012: 42). However, financial crisis politics, as the foreign payment issues that depend on especially results of globalization process have been taken an important place from 2008 financial crisis to current days. The financial situation the governments' loans are from denominated including payable in foreign currency take an important places in foreign payments balances operations. This fact means that governments should be function such as financial operations or subsidiaries that must be in valued within a foreign currency or foreign currency deposits in the financial crisis periods (Yendi et al., 2012: 49). Therefore, foreign payments risk can be also expressed being the risk that a government’s financial performance or position that will be affected by fluctuations in the exchange rates between currencies. In addition the financial risk related foreign payments balances risks occurred in the financial crisis is the most acute for governments that deal in more than one currency especially in case of exporting product to another countries. This situation also causes the governments of less developed countries exposed to foreign exchange risk if their business relies on imported products and services. Turkey's foreign trade policy that directly affect foreign payment balances traditionally had been not subordinate to the country’s export development strategy before 2008 global crisis in the scope of been update (Rodrik, 2012: 49). After 2008 the demand for increased imports has exceeded the country's supply of foreign currency via global crisis effects and this financial phenomenon has caused forcing the government to set up extensive controls to cope with global financial crisis that cause important financial loss towards to new foreign. Therefore, after 2008 the content of new foreign politics has the desired mobilize foreign exchange to products essential for investment or production, but having to take into consideration foreign exchange balances before all else. Hence, the new political economy of the foreign payment in Turkey should give the aimed foreign payments balances some guidance towards to ensure increasing export levels in the scope of exchange rate (Temiz and Gökmen, 2010: 6).
Figure (1) shows structural relations related to 2008 financial crisis in Turkey, especially in the framework of macro changeable as wholeness institutional obligations. It appears that interest rates increasing together along bank number’s overextensions risks have been the most important financial risk component as in being the other countries in Turkey. In respect of global 2008 financial crisis in Turkey have been due to unsuitable exchange rate policies and unsustainable debt levels (Kara, 2012: 16). But, also this financial phenomenon have affected currency crashes as well as came into current deficits increasing within the depended on financial values in Turkey. In the other words, foreign payments balances as resulting crisis have resulted in situated in variables negative signal currency related to debt defaults process that direct the crisis process politics. Beyond 2008 financial crisis, it can said that enterprise to escape from national investment has been the best important financial problem directly related to collapse of currency value (Kara, 2012: 17). This formation has brought forth of exchange rate risks in the scope of ruined in institutional monetary liquidity that result in the considered effects of crisis to especially current days too. Nevertheless increasing bank risks would have been the cause of increasing interest rates which means financial evaluation captures a subtle, as inevitable implication, the government's choice of its exchange rate system towards foreign payments problems. Therefore, financial crisis that of Turkey emphasizes indirectly the globally negative effects of a fixed exchange rate system applied by banks that related to foreign payments balances (Togan and Berument, 2007: 155). Surely, it should not be ignored that high interest rates cause with real exchange rate appreciation sudden stop in capital flows in Turkey. And this fact means which uneasiness in especially recently days towards to the aimed economic development should be supported and exceed via the trustworthy foreign payments together with new foreign payments issues (Kara, 2012: 13-14).
After 2008 crisis process it has been understood that monetary policies is not sufficient within its own to catch the desired economic growth limits in the stability location. Because, it has appeared that trustworthy financial politics together with the rational finance channels and accurate effective foreign payments applications have been important roles on the national investments after global crisis. In the meantime, the dependence of foreign financing with foreign financial obligations are in the important causes that cause the financial fragility in Turkey (Kara, 2012: 15). In addition, current deficit positions and needed foreign debt increasing have affected on the sustainability economic growth for long years related to recent days in Turkey, which have connected with foreign payments. After 2008 crisis, the financial alteration options have taken on shape these considered structural dynamics towards to occur the new foreign payments politics with these added structural reforms. It appears that the most important alteration is to determine structural effects on risk account process related to global financial crisis in a fast medium-term growth scenario (Aras, 2010: 117). Namely, as an important approach towards to alteration foreign payment balances, Turkey has needed to change on the current accounts aimed at decrease risk of bank account process and interest rates that are likely to emerge as investment will need to increase (Naude, 2009: 7). It means that structural alterations related to foreign financial values put forth to cope with crisis effects in a medium-term growth scenario. Nevertheless, current foreign deficits should be limited means that foreign debtor obligations are to limited on borrowed money. In this situation, this fact increase to resistant location financial crisis location because of the financial system strong sustainability which should be in the new foreign payments politics. The crisis process has put forth a financial action plan that is supported via government expenditure politics in response to the negative alteration effects of crisis process in Turkey (Yörükoğlu and Atasoy, 2011: 400). In addition, this plan states the reform agenda of Turkey including developing of financial system together with comprehensive economic growth in the innovation process. Before all else, these financial structural reforms aimed at improve foreign payment transactions have based on the basic two financial arguments. First of all, "Promoting Trade and Investment Openness with Enabling Financial Environmental Competition", and second "Improving and Strengthening the Financial System in a Promoting Inclusive Economic Process" (TCMB, 2016: 6). In this framework alteration, all these constructer alteration options aim to decline the foreign payments costs directly related to changes in the value of a local (or national) currency denominated fiscal transaction options, which will ensure to contribute in new foreign payments politics. Therefore, as the biggest payments costs interest payments that occur with a currency's exchange rate increasing in the same process have two effects possibly to bear in mind after 2008 crisis process that have taken into consideration: First, as the most important public revenues of government, tax revenues are to be increased together with other revenues which aim to increase real output that assist in increasing real GDP. Second, preventing the exchange rate system that have negative effects on foreign payments and again clearly determining the extent to which financial misalignment can contribute to how these changes from point of constituting new foreign payments politics (Seval and Özdemir, 2013: 12-13). The other expressing of the approach is that exchange rate policy should exert meaningful direct effect on monetary policy via central bank options to ensure truly foreign payments politics. In addition, the foreign trade policy in the financial alteration options of crisis process has been affected via recently foreign payments policies, but this political alteration has expressed that the loss of national money values has resulted increasingly in foreign investments in the stock exchange to recent years. Namely, it appears that is possible to perceive, as this financial seen, that current deficits is the main important foreign resource inflow in the same period in 2011 due to loss value of national money. This fact became a reality that has created foreign investment resources in spite of increasingly current deficits after 2008. Also the effects of institutional features has been appeared that has not possible to be ignored in crisis process, which effect current deficits of foreign payments that means structural differences related to after 2008 crises (Seval and Özdemir, 2013: 22-23). But, in spite of all alterations, macroeconomic policy differences that has aim to decrease current deficits only play a limited role in explaining cross-country volatility differences via the institutional rank. Unfortunately It means that the macroeconomic policy differences have not ensured the financial alteration options like desired to presently days, which especially goal to under control foreign payments unbalanced. In this respect, foreign payments policies and the structural institutional differences have been experienced in being contradiction within each other towards to resolve foreign payments after 2008 crisis in Turkey, which especially express to cope with current foreign deficits (Cömert and Çolak, 2014: 17). Nevertheless, it can be say that the foreign resource inflows have been adequate after 2008 in spite of the institutional does not satisfaction, which are effective on meeting important percent of the foreign deficit (Rawdanowicz, 2010: 7-8). Also, the great amount of foreign currency that is stashed abroad has been brought into the country via the new financial alteration options of crisis process after 2008 crisis in Turkey which means that it have been brought to a successful conclusion via these financial alterations related to presently days.
First, the independent variables like exchange and inflation rates as being the revised macro values have placed in the rational decisions for recently years in the scope of the more realistic exchange rate (TCMB-a, 2016: 51-51). It seems that instability capital saving outflow has been more affected by these independent variables, which especially should be prevented together with exchange policies application risk. In addition, the highly domestic interest rates in the same process have increased the concerned foreign payments as one other risk that should be prevented after 2008 crisis.
All these macroeconomic components are that should be considered in the new foreign payment policies and government fiscal management have to attain these new stabilization programs particularly via reconstruction fiscal management to reach the desired situation. However, Turkey, as a developing country, with its own currencies also had exposed more devaluation risks with the financial sectors in the scope of currency policies which must prevent to the periodical risk, and that situation has constituted the contains of new foreign payment policies (TCMB-b, 2016: 49-50). For such reasons, we prefer the natural institutional diagnostic logarithm of Turkey financial management relation in our analysis of potential solutions. It is possible to address this structural location as diagonal diagram below: 
Figure 2. The Structural Appearance of New Foreign Payment Policies to Ensure Foreign Balances Stability in Turkey Figure 2. express the financial alteration relations on the ground of exchange politics including the considered probably overextension banks and financial liquidity beyond traditional banking regulation increased. As seen on figure 2, the priority goal of payment policies ensure to balances between interest rates and overextension bank liquidity and then in this point the most meaningful financial component is to prevent deviation with collapse of currency values. That related to this situation the second other important component that prop up the new foreign policies is to prevent collapse of depositors confidence, but bring to a successful conclusion have not recourse to submit an application to foreign financial resources like IMF. In this way, it has been aimed of that both prevent to collapse government fiscal management and capital saving outflow via new foreign payment policies. Undoubtedly, between this commonly-cited causal components and our crisis indicators current account deficits fact are to measure with currently performance, and that relationship is completely significant to constitute a positive correlation between monetary and fiscal policies (BPC, 2015: 21). However, it is quite difficult to become clear apparent these financial policies to ensure foreign payment balances because of cannot be easily quantified with observable data to occur in the political making process. But it should not be ignored that in the traditional foreign payments policy implementation, in which current accounts stability to foreign payments is the only objective and the short term policy rate is the single tool, the central bank need to have a separate impact on foreign exchange. As seen on the figure 2, this phenomenon that come true via foreign exchange deposit account and exchange rate channels have to ensure the net impact of these channels on exchange and domestic interest rates through financial institutional like banks for preventing foreign payment unbalances. This fact related to new payments put forth that determine a new financial mechanism means a case of foreign payments targeting regime in where current accounts deficits overshoots the financial deficits target. The approach that is meaningful in the scope of the new financial politics due to acceleration in domestic demand, which take part in the new foreign payments policies can be expressed that is main structural of these policies to prevent to foreign payment unbalances related to financial values. In addition to, some problems overcame, like preventing capital escape to abroad, directly related to foreign payments balances have been in part of these policies as the second most aimed in the preventing account deficits policies. No doubt, it has been not ignored the national exchange politics after 2008 financial crisis to effort to financial stabilize especially with balanced interest rates politics (BPC, 2015: 11). Still it is not possible to say that Turkey' new financial policies is sufficient to ensure foreign balances stability in Turkey in spite of attain the aimed some remarkable outcomes. As all crises, it can be said that Turkey's financial crisis politics have based on three main politics dynamic to ensure rational decisions and probability of fiscal default. As seen on figure 2, the priority approach is that check overextension banks and financial liquidity. The secondary important approach that has been taken place in the new foreign payment politics is the preventing collapse of depositors' confidence, which aim to provide a associated forum to both the other financial market options and decision makers to advance theory and application in the fields of business. The thirdly important risk component that directly related to market balances is the applications risk of exchange politics, and the free-floating exchange rate policy that has been applied for a long time in Turkey can occasionally reveal the element of risk because of incompatibility with interest rates found in practice.
The result effects of the new payment policies put forth meaningful structural alteration values after 2008 global financial crisis. In this context, after 2008 crisis current account deficits indicators express important alteration of financial stabilization values that the balance of payment data that covers foreign currency movements of the Jan.-Nov., 2015 including portfolio investment and other investments loans and bank deposits remained. In addition, the total amount of registered capital inflow to Turkey in the forms of direct investment have shown remarkable increasing in the last period after 2008 crisis, which mean that current deficits has been became smaller to previous years. In sum, the other foreign inflow made up of loans and bank accounts values were not alterations in 2014 (Kalkınma Bakanlığı, 2015: 86 and 128). This foreign financial values that stated the same amount 2015 year as loans and bank accounts mean balance of external payments stabilized via new political approaches. But, with foreign currency inflow falling at this extent, the price of the dollar against the Turkish Lira went up fast in 2015. And this fact has provoked to increase exchange rates beyond to national currency that put forth failure of new foreign payment policies. Certainly, the measurement of these policies to stabilize current account deficits require to be also understood both stock and flow measure in the basic of the net external position as Dollar-based, which is fairly meaningful the current account as percentages of GDP. Therefore, these measurements should include both measures of the severity of current account imbalances and the adequacy of holdings of foreign reserves measures of the external balance position. Figure 3 express the current account balance values formed through new payment policies in Turkey’s last period below (Kalkınma Bakanlığı, 2015, 102-104): Yüklə 0,57 Mb. Dostları ilə paylaş:
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