As the economy of Sergipe grows, new development projects (roads, dams, other infrastructure works and tourism development) are adding to the pressures being exerted on the land from the agricultural and fuelwood extraction sectors. The Juscelino Kubitschek highway through the SAS to the São Francisco River canyons, a major tourist attraction, and on to Bahia provides improved access. The royalties from the Xingó hydroelectric project have generated a construction boom in Canindê. The new Xingó Canal through five municipalities of the SAS will generate opportunities and challenges. This all leads to increased land use conflicts and exacerbates LD. In the face of these multiple land uses, the management approach being adopted is fragmented and based on a sector-specific lens, rather than multi-sectoral and integrated.
Climate change
In the current context of intensification of desertification processes, global climate change presents new challenges. The ASD has just undergone the longest drought in 50 years. Global warming may have a strong influence on desertification process and expanding the areas of occurrence, intensifying aridity and thus worsening the environmental problems of the region. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios the Brazilian semiarid region is considered to be the most vulnerable region in South America, subject to increases in annual average temperature between 4° and 6°C. If current trends continue, by 2050 the Brazilian semiarid region may expand and become arid. The areas with dry sub-humid climate may become semiarid and areas with sub-humid moist climate may become dry sub-humid. There is growing concern in Brazil about such scenarios, although plans, programs and projects implemented by the three levels of government (federal, state and municipal) have not yet taken them into due consideration . At the regional level of the NE rainfall is more concentrated in time and space, corroborating the current trend toward both seasonal dryness and intense flooding. If these scenarios continue, current ASD will suffer in terms of production capacity, creating more poverty and more migration. Dealing with these climate change scenarios and more intense desertification processes will require efforts to improve the harmonization of the various actions undertaken in the ASD by government agencies and non-governmental organizations While there has been progress in the development of programs such as PAN-Brazil and PAE-SE, these should be complemented with new actions to respond satisfactorily to the needs of local governments and the social groups that are directly impacted.
Baseline Analysis
In line with Brazil’s drive to promote sustainable socio-economic growth to reduce extreme poverty, Sergipe has taken steps to address low human development indices and is increasingly aware of the links between these and LD. Through a participatory process in 2011, with support from the Inter-American Institute for Cooperation on Agriculture (IICA), the State Action Plan to Combat Desertification and Mitigation of the Effects of Drought - Sergipe (PAE-SE) was developed following the same five thematic areas of the national action plan. Within these, the PAE-SE identifies 90 actions and provides an initial mapping for funding through existing and planned sector programs that incorporate some elements needed to address LD. These and more recently planned investments constitute a baseline for the proposed project that has an estimated cost of US$121.5 million.
Of this total, US$28.35 million will be channeled to strengthen land use governance. As part of Brazil’s agrarian reform. many new settlements have been created in the SAS. Land tenure regularization is vital for increasing buy-in for SLM and for access to diverse funding sources. In the baseline, this program will continue with an estimated expenditure of US$2.67 million. The state is will direct an estimated US$13.24 million for licensing in the agrarian reforms and other landholdings in ASDs (staff recurrent costs, actual licensing and some enforcement). However, these do not include specific guidance on SLM nor identify the different LD levels and complexities of managing conflicting land use in increasingly degraded areas where actions in one site may have negative synergies with those in surrounding areas.
To advance coordination of land use across different levels of governance and sectors, Sergipe is taking steps to improve integrated water and environmental permit processes. This includes the development of the Waters of Sergipe program starting in 2013 with state and World Bank resources and a total budget of US$115 million. A component will involve institutional strengthening for improving water management, strengthen the Sergipe River watershed committee and develop a state-level EEZ. An estimated US$10.36 million will be invested in this and the coordination work. These present opportunities on which to build but require expanding to better include LD issues, include other priority ASDs and ensure close coordination with PAN-SE priorities. At the national level, an estimated US$2.081 million will be spent on supporting a knowledge network for SLM in ASD that is relevant to Sergipe, and support to states in the development and early implementation of PAEs that will enable exchange of lessons learned and offer a channel for replication.
An estimated US$93.15 million will be invested in the baseline in activities that offer opportunities for increasing links between poverty reduction and combating desertification. This includes actions in the above-mentioned Waters of Sergipe program through components for developing more modern, sustainable and efficient irrigation methods for farmers to reduce pressure on scarce water resources and rehabilitation of environmental protection areas such as riparian forests degraded by years of inappropriate or non-existent environmental management (US$21.87 million). Through further state allocation of resources within the Greater Fairness in Sergipe program (Sergipe Mais Justo), support will be provided to small farmers in sustainable use, agro-ecological practices and the provision of seeds (US$12.04 million). This will be complemented with the recently approved Dom Távora program, in part funded by the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD), which will develop value chains, identify and mobilize producers’ groups, identify and formulate business plans, provide technical assistance to implement these and provide training on business (US$39.79 million). It will be carried out in the poorest municipalities, amongst which 41 are in the ASD, but it will focus mainly on business plans and extension and does not include specific uptake and dissemination of SLM practices or cover the seven municipalities of the SAS, where desertification processes are most severe.
As part of this total US$93.15 million baseline, investment will be made for SLM finance and incentives in Sergipe estimated at US$17.27 million. This includes insurance for harvest losses and a number of national programs that execute resources at the state level, including the school food and food acquisition programs and other programs associated with the flagship plan Brazil without Misery (Brasil sem Miséria) that aims to increase per capita income for families under extreme poverty conditions; provide access to public services (such as water and electricity) for social well-being and expand work opportunities and income. There is substantial focus on the NE region of Brazil, including Sergipe. The ministries that define the goals, programs and priorities under this plan are coordinated at the national level through an inter-ministerial group set up to determine the application of resources for implementing the plan (US$2,015 million). The resources are implemented directly by states with the participation of civil society (e.g. the NGO network ASA implements the water-safety program), however, increased coordination with state priorities and resources is needed.
Long-Term Solution And Barriers To Its Achievement
Despite this extensive baseline there is a risk that sector actions will be fragmented, will following a uni-sectoral vision and will not be optimized for addressing the increasing LD resulting in loss of ecosystem services and worsening of socio-economic parameters Sergipe’s ASD . The long-term solution to mitigating land degradation is to implement a multi-sectoral, landscape level management approach that takes into consideration the multiple pressures on soil and land resources from various sectors. This solution will depend upon strong inter-sectoral and inter-agency cooperation, a strengthened governance framework, and increased uptake of SLM as a result of financial and human resources channeled toward the promotion of SLM and where appropriate, SFM. The achievement of this long-term solution is undermined by two main barriers: 1) limited existing governance framework to promote SLM in Sergipe and 2) uptake of SLM in Sergipe impeded by capacity and funding issues. The project has been designed to address these two main barriers and is detailed in the next section Project rational and design options. (Part II of this document)
