Selected Research Papers in Social Change, Education, Labour Market, and Criminology Volume II

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Baudrillard, J. (1996): Precesja symulakrów, (in:) R. Nycz (red.), Postmodernizm. Antologia przekl adów, Kraków: Wydawnictwo Baran i Suszczyn ski, pp. 175-189

Bell, D. (1962): The End of Ideology: On the Exhaustion of Political Ideas in the Fifties. New York

Bell, D. (1973): The Coming of Post-Industrial Society: A Venture of Social Forecasting. New York

Burszta, W. J./ Kuligowski, W. (2005): Sequel. Dalsze przygody kultury w globalnym s wiecie. Warszawa: Warszawskie Wydawnictwo Literackie Muza S.A . Carnoy, M. (1974): Education as Cultural Imperialism. New York Chal asin ski, J. (1938): Ml ode pokolenie chl opów. Warszawa, T.IV, O chl opska szkole Durkheim, E. (1973): Education and sociologie. Paris Drucker, P. (1993): The Post-Capitalist Society. Oxford Featherstone, M. (1996): Postmodernizm i estetyzacja z ycia spol ecznego, (in:) R. Nycz

(red.), Postmodernizm. Antologia przekl adów, Kraków: Wydawnictwo Baran i Suszczyn ski, pp. 299-332

Fukuyama, F. (1992): The End of History and the Last Man. Glencoe Godzic, W. (2002): Telewizja jako kultura. Kraków: Rabid Huntington, S. P. (1993): “The Clash of Civilization?” Foreign Affairs 72, 3 (Summer)

1993, pp. 22-49 Huntington, S. P. (1996): The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order.

New York Jameson, F. (1996): Postmodernizm i spol eczen stwo konsumpcyjne, (in:) R. Nycz (red.),

Postmodernizm. Antologia przekl adów, Kraków: Wydawnictwo Baran i Suszczyn ski, pp. 190-213 Kerckhove de, D. (2001): Powl oka kultury. Warszawa Kl oskowska, A. (1980): Kultura masowa. Krytyka i obrona. Warszawa McLuhan, M./ Fiore, G. (1968): War and Peace in the Global Village. New York McLuhan, M. (1962): The Gutenberg Galaxy. The Making of Typographic Man. Toronto Mead M. (1976): Kultura i toz samosc . Warszawa Niezgoda, M. (2000a): Rzeczywistosc spol eczna czy rzeczywistosc telewizyjna. (in:) W. Dudek (red.), Radio i telewizja – informacja, kultura, polityka. Material y ogólnopolskiej konferencji naukowej. Katowice: Wydawnictwo US, Prace Naukowe Uniwersytetu Sla skiego w Katowicach no 1821, pp. 67-76

Niezgoda, M. (2000b): Konflikt kulturowy czy konflikt w kulturze? O dylematach wspól czesnej kultury. (in:) M. Malikowski, Z. Sere ga (red.), Konflikty spol eczne w Polsce w okresie zmian systemowych. Studia, komunikaty, eseje. Rzeszów: Wydawnictwo WSP, vol. II, pp. 149 – 158

Pisarek, W./ Goban-Klas T. (1981): Aktywnosc , preferencje i s wiadomosc kulturalna spol eczenstwa polskiego. Kraków

Putnam, R. D. (2000): Bowling Alone: the Collapse of American Community, New York Richta, R. (1971): Cywilizacja na rozdroz u, Warszawa Strinati, D. (1998): Wprowadzenie do kultury popularnej, Poznan , Zysk i Ska Szpocin ski, A. (1991): Kanon kulturowy. „Kultura i Spol eczenstwo” nr 2, pp. 47-56 Sztompka, P. (1999): Kulturowe imponderabilia szybkich zmian spol ecznych, (w:) P.

Sztompka, (red.), Imponderabilia wielkiej zmiany, Warszawa Toffler, A. (1970): Future Shock. New York Toffler, A. (1980): The Third Wave. New York Wiatr, J.J. (1968): Czy zmierzch ery ideologii? Problemy polityki i ideologii w swiecie

wspól czesnym, Warszawa.

Education in a Global and Media-Oriented Society: A Clash of Value Systems? 1

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Anica Dragovic

Fertility in the Republic of Macedonia

1 Rationale of the Study

Given the fact that there has been a substantial demographic change in our world environment, both in theory and practice, fertility and birth control are the most important elements in the study of population dynamics. For many developing countries the worries are about high fertility rates, while for other countries the problem may be low fertility rates. The aim of international efforts for the first group of countries is to reduce total fertility rates and bring them down to the replacement level of two births per woman. However, the fertility rate has continued to fall in nearly all populations that have reached the replacement level. The Population Reference Bureau’s 2001 World Population Data Sheet shows that 65 countries and territories now have fertility rates that are below the replacement level, including 40 out of 42 countries and territories in Europe. In over 20 countries, total fertility rates are below an average of 1.5 births per woman.

The Republic of Macedonia has experienced a substantive decline in fertility since the onset of the socioeconomic transition. In one decade, the total fertility rate declined from 2.2 in 1994 to 1.59 in 2002, and showed 1.47 children per woman in 2008. This number highlights the position of Macedonia in the group of countries where fertility is below the level of replacement. It should be mentioned that to the reproductive performance of the country, fertility levels and natural increase of population, among particular population subgroups (by region and ethnicity) are far beyond the level of fertility in the country (Jovanovic, 2005).

The rate of natural increase of the population has permanently been decreasing, year by year. For example, from 1994 to 2008, natural increase declined from 15,772 to 3,963 inhabitants. For the same period, death rates increased (from 15,649 in 1994 to 18,982) and infant mortality rates declined (from 752 in 1994 to 223 in 2008, SSO, Natural population change, 2008, p.13).

The reasons for such a situation are complex and include cultural, demographic, economic, and health-related factors. Actually the reasons have not been clarified, but several should be mentioned. Due to the fact that the population in Macedonia is faced with a problem of ageing (MLSP, 2008), the proportion of women at the reproductive age, as one of the proximate determinants (Bongaarts and Potter, 1983), should be taken in consideration. At the same time it is not possible to ignore the current transitional position of the Republic of Macedonia: transition in the market economy and pluralistic political system accompanied by the economic crisis, high inflation, and devaluation of individual income. In such a social environment, where insufficient financial security exists, the small homes, the rate of unemployment among women, and their position in the family and society are

Fertility in the Republic of Macedonia 1

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factors that raised the perceived costs of leaving the parental home and having children as well (Ranjan, 1999; Bhaumik and Nugent, 2002; Philipov, 2002).

Further, the subsequent decline in the birth rate has also occurred due to the diminishing effectiveness of the state’s demographic pro-natal policy by 2008. Namely, at the beginning of 2008 a strategy for the demographic development of the country was conducted for the first time. Changes in population policies and some actions taken by the government to improve the demographic situation in the country are being undertaken, and are expected to bring some positive results in the future. The main objectives of the study are outlined as follows to examine the differentials of fertility in the country, with regard to demographic, socio-cultural, and socio-economic factors, and to examine the effect of direct and indirect determinants of fertility in the country.

2 Some Theoretical Views on Changes in Fertility

Many different scientific disciplines are interested in fertility as a phenomenon. Each of these disciplinary approaches introduces a different perspective, a specific focus, methodology, level of analysis, and assumptions about the mechanisms underlying reproductive behavior. The theoretical body which deals with fertility is a colorful and mountainous patchwork of ideas and, as Leridon (1977) depicted the situation, like a “cubist painting”.

In spite of the disciplinary variety in the approaches to fertility and the various orientation shifts over time, explaining the differences and changes in patterns and levels of fertility continues to be a central concern for demographers.

Another approach to explaining fertility (besides explanations that are based on the theory of demographic transition, or try to explain changes in fertility using demographic, economic, or other factors) is to focus on the structural level, namely the cultural, institutional, and social organization of the society or the combinations within it.

The institutional analysis of fertility is a new line of interpretation of fertility. This seeks situational and path-dependent specificity, and is sensitive to cultural interpretations and the interaction between structure and agency. Well known is Cain’s (1981, 1989) analysis of the value of children as a source of risk insurance in villages in India and Bangladesh. It suggests that the differences between the settings can be largely attributed to institutional elements like labor division between the sexes, patriarchy, legal status, and social security systems.

McNicoll (1980) conceived the institutional background of fertility and the micromacro link of fertility explanation. Social institutions may be interpreted as the socially constructed (and sanctioned) rules that provide solutions to recurrent problems of individual action and interaction (McNicoll, 1994). An institutional approach finds the understanding of fertility at least partly in the historical evolution of the specific amalgam of institutions. It views them as evolving processes which not only depend on current circumstances, but also, and crucially, on their history, and which evolve at every point in time rather than only during a transition phase (Greenhalgh, 1995; McNicoll, 1994).

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The identification of inter-penetrating local, regional, and national institutions reflects the multi-level nature of context. Thus, aims of the international community with regard to women’s rights and reproductive health as voiced at the 1994 Cairo Conference on Population and Development can be effectuated by supportive legislation at state level and women’s organizations at lower levels, but can also be impeded by adverse family and gender systems or local labor market opportunities. Because of the differences in the local economies, overarching institutions like religion or national family-planning programs may be negotiated differently in a rural farming community than in the neighboring fishing community (cf. Niehof, 1985).

In searching for answers related to the questions and explanations about lowering fertility in the transition countries, there are three points of view, the first being the “economic crisis argument.” The reasons behind lowering fertility are related to the economic and labor-market uncertainty, and the disruption of traditional public transfer and support systems induce couples either to postpone having children (which leads temporarily to a low level of fertility) or to reduce their desired number of children (which leads to a permanently low level of fertility).

The second point of view is the “adjustment schools,” where change in fertility behavior is due to the view of the transformation as a convergence process towards “western” social and economic incentives for childbearing. (e.g. Kreyenfeld, 2002)

The third aspect explains that the demographic trends are a reflection of the “second demographic transition.” In this view, the recent demographic trends do not constitute a crisis, nor are they directly linked to the economic hardship associated with the transformation towards a market economy. Rather, they occur due to a “second demographic transition,” which transforms family and fertility behavior towards more secular and individualistic behavior (e.g. Vishnevsky, 1996; Zakharov and Ivanova, 1996; Lesthaeghe and Van de Kaa, 1986; Van de Kaa, 2006).

Through proper treatment and standard procedure for fertility examination, as well as available information, the hypothetical frame will be tested. The general hypothesis of this paper considers fertility as a biological (demographic) phenomenon, but it is under great influence of the changes in social surroundings. Late home leaving and marriage, low gender equality within the family, incompatibility of work and childbearing, precarious economic situation for young adults, employment insecurity, post-communist social and economic transformation, rising voluntary childlessness, and the spread of the one-child family model have all affected the decreasing fertility rate.

Considering the above brief theoretical review of fertility, this study is close to the approach that attempts to reach a full understanding of fertility and fertility change in society. To achieve that, it is necessary to encompass both the structural determinants of embedding-context, and the role of the individual and intraindividual processes and, consequently, the mechanisms that relate macro and micro levels.

Fertility is above everything a biological event, but it remains as a social phenomenon emerging from the aggregation of individual life events, largely determined socially and with profound social consequences.

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3 Methodological Approach

Expectations related to the present analysis are to describe, explain, and elaborate fertility behavior in Republic of Macedonia. Fertility is a real achievement of natural fecundity, and it refers to the actual birth performance. In this study, the dimension of examination of fertility will be the number of children a woman has. In this case, cumulative fertility or number of children ever born (CEB) was used. The last age group of women (45–49) can be taken as indicative of the level of completed fertility.

In order to meet the stated objectives of this study, this work relied on an examination of fertility behavior in relation to the limited set of variables on women, which involves a broad socio-cultural approach (context) as well. With some modification done by the researcher Freedman, his conceptual model (1966) of factors affecting fertility is adopted as the main theoretical framework for this study. This model itself includes intermediate variables of Davis and Blake (1956) and proximate variables of Bongaarts’ model developed later (1983).

The analytical framework of this study included components of the intermediate variables, socio-cultural and economic background of women characteristics, their attitudes, and norms about fertility and birth control. The relationship is based on the direct effect of intermediate variables (age of woman, age at first marriage, duration of marriage, contraceptive use, and abortion) on fertility, and the effects of the woman’s individual characteristics on these variables. Further, influences of attitudes about fertility and birth control/family planning methods on the actual fertility performance (the number of children ever born) are included.

1 Dependent variable is the number of Children Ever Born (CEB). The independent variables that affect fertility in direct ways are the intermediate variables age of women (AW), age at first marriage (AFM), duration of marriage (DM), contraceptive use (CU), and abortion (Ab). The variables that affect fertility in an indirect way are individual characteristics of women: place of residence, level of education, working experience, and ethnicity belonging. This study is based on both primary and secondary data sources. Primary data comes from a survey. The survey was conducted in 2002 in the Republic of Macedonia. The basic source of information is a questionnaire directed at all married women aged 15–49 years.Completed questionnaires were obtained from 962 women of reproductive ages. This information enables us to measure the completed fertility and related factors responsible for its variations. The questionnaire included questions related to topics such as respondents’ (women) background characteristics, reproduction, and attitudes about reproduction and fertility preferences; abortion, attitudes to abortion, and contraceptives, including knowledge, use, attitudes, norms, and motivation related to contraceptive methods.

The empirical part of this article is supported by the secondary data source. The main sources of the data for this study came from the census data from the

1 According to law, marital union can be entered into from the age of 18. From 15 to 18 years, marriage is possible with the parents’ permission, and with the necessary medical examinations on the mental and physical health of the bride.

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Statistical Office of the Republic of Macedonia (Census of population, households and dwellings, 2002), and data from the Vital Register of the Statistical Office of the Republic of Macedonia. Additional data came from the available research and analysis.

The research approach is descriptive in order to present the fertility level and differentials on fertility behavior. A path-analysis was utilized to investigate the determinants of fertility using value of regression coefficient using the AMOS 4 computer program.

Before applying the path analysis to estimate the net effect of the independent variables, step-wise regression analysis was carried out in order to decide which of the explanatory variables related to fertility behavior should be retained in a final equation. All the variables are introduced one at a time in order to get the largest possible proportion of the variation explained in the dependent variable. The stepwise regression model selected seven out of nine variables having significant effect on the CEB (Children ever born). In their order of importance these variables are the age, ethnicity, and education, place of residence, age at first marriage, contraceptive use, and desired number of children of the woman. These variables were found to have a strong association with the dependent variable at both the 0.01 and 0.05 levels of statistical significance. The findings show that women’s working status and abortion have a limited effect on CEB. In addition to the path analysis, the seven variables that show the strong association with the CEB are considered. Hence the path model only decomposes the effects of variables with a direct effect on CEB. Variables with only a direct effect on one of the intermediate variables are not taken into account.

4 Differentials of Fertility in the Republic of Macedonia

At the beginning of the last century, the Crude Birth Rate in the Republic of 2 Macedonia was exclusively high (about 40 per thousand inhabitants), and this trend ended in the 1950 when the rates started a constant decrease until today. In 1998, it reached only 14.6 per thousand inhabitants, and decreased further to 11.2 in 2008. As expected, the total fertility rate(TFR) (Haupt and Kane, 2004, p.15) in the Republic of Macedonia also decreased, from 2.2 in 1988 to only 1.5 (or 1.47) in 2008 (see Appendix, Table 1). In comparison to countries that have had lower fertility for longer periods, Macedonia shows a variation in terms of timing level as well as in the rate and duration of the decline. Persistently low-fertility countries are Austria, Germany (and in particular West Germany), Greece, Spain, and Italy. All of these countries have had a TFR of or below 1.5 since the mid-1980s; in West Germany the period of low fertility even started in the mid-1970s. Periods of low fertility also occurred in Denmark and the Netherlands during the 1980s as well as in Sweden at the end of the 1990s. (Neyer, 2003, p.5)

2 Definition: Total fertility rate (TFR) is the average number of children that would be born to a woman by the time she ended childbearing if she were to pass through all her childbearing years conforming to the age-specific fertility rates of a given year. (see Haupt and Kane, 2004, p.15)
Fertility in the Republic of Macedonia 1

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4.1 The Age Pattern of Fertility

As known, the delivery of a child has a biological limitation followed by social determinants and causes. The fertility level depends on the woman’s age. In that matter, the age-specific fertility rate (ASFR) (Haupt and Kane, 2004, p.14) is the best measure to show the age impact on fertility. According to the available data from vital registration, the fertility pattern from 1994 to 2008 in the Republic of Macedonia will be presented.

More than two-thirds of the total number of born children in each year during the examined period (from 1994–2008) belong to the two age groups of women aged 20–24 and 25–29.

Figure 1 illustrates the transition of bearing child according to the age of mother. Figure 1: Age-Specific Fertility Rates, Republic of Macedonia

0,160 0,180

0,120 0,140

0,080 0,100

0,040 0,060

0,000 0,020

15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 Age group1994 1996 1998 2000 2006 200

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From 1994 to 1997, the most common age group at which women gave birth was 20–24 years. After that period, the most common year moved towards the next age group (25–29).

3According to the United Nations classification of age-specific fertility distribution, Macedonian fertility belongs to the “early peak” type. For the whole country, the peak of fertility occurs in the 20–24 age group from 1994 to 1997. After 1998, fertility shifted to the “broad peak” model (Kpedekpo, 1982). Due to the fact that the majority of births occur between married couples, it can be said that later marrying ages is a main factor for the decline of fertility.

3 Despite the fact that number of non-marital births increase, still the biggest number of births occurred in the marital union. Actually, in 1994, out of total number of births 8.8% was non-marital, and this number reaches 12.2% in 2008

Fertility in the Republic of Macedonia 19ASF

R

In addition, the number of marriages is declining. According to the values of Crude Marriage Rates (CMR) (Siegel and Swanson, 2004, p. 196), which show the number of marriages per thousand population, 7.2 marriages per thousand population were registered in 2008, compared to 8.1 in 1994 (see Appendix, Table A1).

The age of entering into marital union is also increasing. In 1994, the age at first marriage for a man was 26.0 and for a woman 22.9 years. After more than a decade, grooms are on average almost two years older (in 2008 the average age at first marriage for a man was 27.7 years), and brides are more than two years older (in 2008, 24.7 years for a woman; SSO, 2008).

The differences in the fertility levels are mainly due to demographic and socioeconomic factors. From the demographic point of view, low fertility is a consequence of the so-called “tempo effect” (Bongaarts and Feeney, 1998; Kohler, Billari, and Ortega, 2002). This means the postponement of motherhood and the bearing of the first child. It is obvious that mothers postpone the decision to give birth because they postpone the entering into marital union.

The average age of first birth for women for the same period is presented in the figure below. During this period the mean age of the mother at the first birth increases from 23.5 in 1994 to 25.6 in 2008. In addition, mean age of mother of total births also increased, from 26.8 in 1994 to 27.4 in 2008.

The average of all mothers that gave birth to a first child in 2008 is two years older than mothers that gave birth to a first child in 1994. Namely, in 1994, when the fertility level was at the replacement fertility level, mean age of the first birth was 23.5 years. From that time until 2008, the mean age rose permanently year-byyear and reached 25.6 in 2008. Moreover, the age of the mother for all births also increased. In 1994 it was 25.8 and in 2008 it was 27.4 (see Figure 2)