The other side of the coin: the growing opposition in turkey against to the european union accession

Table-2: Members of the European Parliament by Member States				Table-3: Distribution of Votes For Each Member State
	Germany			99					Germany, France, Italy, United Kingdom			29
	France			74
	United Kingdom			73					Spain, Poland			27
	Italy			70					Romania			14
	Spain			54					Netherlands			13
	Poland			51					Czech Republic, Greece, Hungary, Belgium, Portugal			12
	Romania			33
	Netherlands			26					Sweden, Austria, Bulgaria			10
	Czech Republic, Greece, Hungary, Belgium, Portugal			22					Slovakia, Denmark, Finland, Lithuania, Ireland, Croatia			7
	Sweden			20					Latvia, Slovenia, Estonia, Cyprus, Luxembourg			4
	Austria			19
	Bulgaria			18					Malta			3
	Slovakia, Denmark, Finland			13					Total__352'>Total			352
	Lithuania, Ireland, Croatia			12
	Latvia			9					Source: European Union, The Council of the European Union.
	Slovenia			8
	Estonia, Cyprus, Luxembourg			6				http://www.consilium.europa.eu/council
	Malta			4
	Total			766
Source: European Union, European Parliament.
http://www.europarl.europa.eu/meps/en/map.html

As one of the main institutions of the EU, European Parliament has 766 members from 28 member states. The number of representatives of countries is roughly determined by population of the each country. As the decision making body of the EU, the decisions of the Council of the European Union consist with 352 votes in total. The distribution of votes⁷⁹ for each Member State is again based largely on their population. By simplifying; a country, Germany for example, with large population has more seats in European Parliament and more words to say besides being more effective on decision making procedures for the future of the EU in the Council.

Additionally, as a candidate state, Turkey with its large population is always an open question for the European Union. If the system of the EU will continue like today by considering the probable membership status of Turkey in the future, the role of Turkey will be effective and powerful in the EU just because of its population. After 54 years, one of the most important aims of the Turkish foreign policy is still to take its place next to other member countries and have full membership of the European Union. By taking into account the changes and improvements which Turkey had been making (and still continues to make) to actualize this aim; nothing can change the fact that Turkey has been waiting since 1959. Among the dialogues, agreements, foreign policies and politicians one of the crucial actors; one of the most crucial actors are generally forgotten: people, and namely their opinions.

Considering this long-term waiting time; the Turkish public opinion about the EU accession process of Turkey should be examined more detailed. Therefore, the following chapters focus on the interest level of Turkey to the EU accession by presenting the changes since 2004 and examining the augmentation of people who are against membership to the EU.

V.1. General Standpoint of Turkey to the European Union Accession
Graph- 5: Referendum Tendencies of Individuals

in Turkey on European Union Membership⁸⁰

Source: Turkish Statistical Institute, Life Satisfaction Survey 2012. Ankara, Turkey: April 2013
In accordance with the researches of Turkish Statistical Institute, public support to the EU accession in Turkey is dramatically decreasing. The graph presents the referendum tendencies⁸¹ of individuals in Turkey to the EU accession from 2004 to 2012. Public support to the EU accession was sharply declining from 70,2% to 53% between 2004 and 2006. The tendency level, approximately, continued at the same level for five years; and then fell again to 44,8% in 2011. By comparing the years between 2004 and 2012; the drop of tendency level is more noticeable with 24,8%.

In contrast, the percentage of people who are against to the membership is continuously increasing. Even though there is a slight decrease in 2009 and 2010; the tendency level against to the EU accession reached its maximum level in 2012 by 31%. With regard to people who have no idea, the level has steadily increased until 2011; but decreased again in 2012 below the level in 2010. It seems that they mostly joined those against membership.

By taking into consideration this nine years period, the result becomes more impressive, especially when the events and statistical data are examined together. As it was mentioned in the previous chapter, European Union started full membership negotiations with Turkey at the end of 2005. The first significant rise on the level of against membership appeared in 2006. In other words, the support to EU accession was higher before the negotiations started. On July 22, 2007 general election of representatives was held that resulted victory of Justice and Development Party (Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi, AKP) which came in power with the general elections in 2002. Even though there was a slight increase of support in 2007, it did not make any difference in general.
Moreover, general election was held on June 12, 2011 in Turkey that AKP was selected again for the third time. Only one month later, Ministry for EU Affairs was established. The second largest decline with a 7% reduction in public support emerged at the same year. In this context, it is questionable whether these events were effective on public opinion about the EU.
On the other hand, the graph reflects the overall data. Therefore, referendum tendencies of individuals in Turkey on European Union membership should be also analyzed according to age groups and level of education to comprehend better the approaches of people who are for and against to membership.


Table - 4: Referendum Tendencies of Individuals in Turkey

on European Union Membership by Age Groups (%)

Age Groups and their proportion in population (%)			For membership	Against membership	No idea
18-24	^82		47,2	30,8	22,1
25-34		16,94%	46,8	32,2	20,9
35-44		14,27%	47,7	28,9	23,4
45-54		11,55%	44,7	28,9	26,4
55-64		8,12%	45,3	23,5	31,2
65+		7,51%	29,7	16,4	53,9

Source: Turkish Statistical Institute. “Life Satisfaction Survey, 2011” and “Population by age group and sex, 2011.”
The table comprises the tendency level to the EU accession by age groups. Except the age group of 65 and over, referendum tendencies of individuals from 18 to 64 year old meet approximately at the same level. The percentages of the people who have no idea are increasing with age while the situation is the opposite on the people who do not want to be a member of the EU. Age group of 25-34 excel with 32,2 % by having the highest level against membership.