Water research commission

Scoping of existing adaptation practices and techniques

1. Background

To assess the farming vulnerabilities farmers and experts were asked about climate related thresholds (mostly temperature and rainfall) that would cause significant reduction in crops. The results provided a very interesting range of conditions which were validated at a second interaction with other stakeholders. The next step was to determine what the likelihood is of a future climate in the study areas of breaching these thresholds.

An adjunct to these questions was a survey of any existing adaptations that farmers have made in response to existing changing conditions. These are not specifically adaptations to climate change but more responses to existing climate variability. Many stakeholders have their own opinions about climate changes that they have perceived to have occurred, and it is not part of this research to determine the validity of these perceptions, but each farmer responds to climate risk in a way that may be unique. It was found that due to communication channels and organisations, the responses by farmers were generally used throughout the communities.

The degree of climate variability ranged from extreme long-lived events such as drought and major flooding, to the individual short-lived events like very hot days (or nights), hailstorms, or very intense rainfall, or wind. In most cases farmers responded in one of two ways; as a response to an event to reduce the follow-on impact, or as a proactive measure to reduce the impact of a re-occurring future event.

“Adaptation” refers to the adoption of appropriate coping strategies to minimise any negative effects of climate change and includes a range of activities, such as response farming, crop selection and breeding, animal selection, rainfall use efficiency, timing of agricultural activities etc.

1. Adaptation to climate change in the South African agricultural sector: some introductory thoughts (Schulze 2013)

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  Adaptation to climate change implies a range of measures to cope with and possibly overcome the challenges of, and vulnerabilities to, climate change.
  
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  By formal definition adaptation includes “initiatives and measures to reduce the vulnerability of natural and human systems against actual or expected climate change effects. Various types of adaptation exist, e.g. anticipatory, and reactive, private and public, and autonomous and planned” (IPCC, 2007, p 76).
  
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  Climate and climate change issues are superimposed upon the multiple other challenges, problems and stressors the South African agriculture sector already faces (e.g. globalisation, urbanisation, environmental degradation, disease outbreaks, market uncertainties, higher fuel and machinery costs, policies concerning water / field burning / overgrazing and land redistribution, or slow responses from authorities), and that together these affect future planning strategies (Andersson et al., 2009).
  
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  To varying degrees, farming communities already cope with, and adapt to, a variable climate.
  
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  The key to enabling communities to deal with an uncertain future climate is to identify their vulnerabilities and investigate ways of reducing their exposure, including existing strategies used by them and others, leading to the adoption of adaptation strategies.
  

Adapting to projected climate change in South Africa’s agriculture sector will mean that commercial farmers optimise climatic conditions to maximise output in a sustainable manner while maintaining a competitive edge. At the rural livelihood scale, on the other hand, adaptation needs to focus on the most vulnerable groups and areas, so that livelihoods are not eroded by climate events, but rather that the affected communities become more resilient to the expected changes in climate. For both sets of farmers, adaptation will require an integrated approach that addresses multiple stressors, and will have to combine the indigenous knowledge/experiences of vulnerable groups together with latest specialist insights from the scientific community.

Most agricultural programmes and information are initiated at high levels in government for regional implementation and are not always adapted to local conditions. However, all agricultural programmes and planning strategies in regard to climate change will need to focus on local conditions, as climate change will have very local repercussions (Schulze 2011).

3. Existing coping strategies, practice and techniques

In each study region, workshops were held and farmers were asked about their vulnerabilities and current coping and adaptation strategies. Their strategies, practice and techniques are highlighted in bold text in this section

6.3.1 Olifants East (Mangoes, citrus)

The current farming management practices and possible future farming operations were discussed during a workshop in Hoedspruit on the 16^th of April and followed up with discussions with experts after the workshop. The following key elements and adaptation responses were highlighted:

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  If the season shifts forward by a week or two for mangoes, it will have major price implications since the highest sales and prices are obtained between Christmas and New Year. A decrease of 30-40% will not be uncommon especially for the Tommy Atkins cultivar. It would be necessary to switch to other cultivars.
  
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  The quality of navel oranges will drop if climate change result in warmer winter temperatures and it will also be necessary to consider other cultivars to counter this impact.
  
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  There seem to be an increase in the occurrence of hail storms which is disastrous for any producer affected. The only adaptation is to construct hail nets which are extremely expensive (R130 000 per ha).
  
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  The only alternative crop which may be considered in this region is sugarcane. Papayas are not an option if there is an increase in temperature and if there is more wind.
  
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  There will also be an impact on the fertiliser requirement for crops. High rainfall will increase leaching of chemicals and will result in an increase in fertiliser application and cost.
  
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  More rainfall will also impact on the spraying program for pest control (increased frequency of spraying – increased costs).
  
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  More rainfall will require that all trees to be planted on ridges. More costly establishment costs (R4000 per ha for ridging).
  
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  In general, farmers are of the opinion that more mangoes will be planted compared to citrus if there is an increase in rainfall and temperature.
  
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  Net houses for citrus (prevent hail, wind and decrease variation in fruit quality)
  
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  Seeded citrus cultivars do better – negotiations with retailers
  
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  Ridging between trees (to improve drainage)
  
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  Dripper irrigation improves accuracy to control ground moisture
  
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  Improved rootstocks to cope with pathogens
  
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  Mango caps for sunburn (cheaper than net houses)
  
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  Net houses for mangoes (to initiate earlier fruit set)
  
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  Improved pruning techniques
  
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  Ripening rooms for mangoes
  
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  Alter and change spraying programs
  
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  Genetically modified cultivars
  
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  Spray chemicals to reduce temperature
  
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  GIP – to get better cropset in mangoes
  
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  Low seeded mango cultivars
  
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  De-greening rooms for mangoes
  

6.3.2 Carolina (maize, soya)

The current farm management practices were discussed in a previous report. During a discussion with the case study farmer on the 17th of April 2012 and followed up by a validation workshop on the 3rd of October 2012 with an expert group the following key elements and adaptation responses were highlighted:

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  They plant as soon as it is physically and climatically possible and they plant short to medium grower cultivars to reduce risk. There are hardly any farmers who still plant long growers.
  
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  Adaptation strategies include the following:
  
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    Decrease in row spacing to get more shade on the soil
    
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    Short growing cultivars
    
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    Low pressure pivots
    
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    Use of no-till /strip-till practices
    
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    Better moisture management
    
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    Improving soil health
    
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    Correct crop rotation
    
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  Grain sorghum and sunflowers are adapted crops for the region.
  

6.3.3 Olifants West (Wine grapes, table grapes & raisins)

The current farm management practices and possible future farming operations were discussed during a workshop in Vredendal on the 11^th April 2012 and followed up by a validation workshop on the 17^th September 2012 with an expert group. The following key elements and adaptation responses were highlighted:

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  Plastic liners placed on the ground (improve water efficiency)
  
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  Cover ground with crude material and or mulch (improve water efficiency)
  
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  Cultivar selection - with shorter growth periods/different areas/more heat resistant
  
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  Scale down production and irrigate optimally
  
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  Apply Dormex to control bud break
  
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  Increase production of table grapes (red seedless)
  
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  Increase production of currants and raisins
  
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  Increase farm dam capacity for winter storage - citrus production
  
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  Table grapes - summer rain - cover shade nets with plastic
  
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  Use less water with crops that are physical-biological adapted to the area
  
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  Plant under plastic cover - higher soil temperature, use less water, less weed
  
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  Shift planting season later
  
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  Sprinkler irrigation cools down temperature - but less efficient
  
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  To save water one can irrigate at night - this adaptation strategy however doubles capital cost
  
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  Shade nets can eliminate a lot of climate change problems (heat, sunburn, hail) - the capital cost of this is however very high
  
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  Mist spray under shade nets
  
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  Soil preparation and site selection will become more and more important for future plantings
  
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  Increase table grapes and raisins - new cultivars perform very well
  
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  Micro irrigation instead of drip – to cool down vineyards
  
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  Date fruit production identified as the only viable alternative crop on a large scale for the region
  

6.3.4 Moorreesburg (wheat)

During a discussion with MKB experts during April 2012 and followed up by a validation workshop on 10^th September 2012 with an expert group the following key elements and adaptation responses were highlighted:

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  The level of Nitrogen fertilization depends on the availability of moisture in the soil. If the rainfall decrease it will result in less nitrogen which can be applied accompanied by a decrease in yield.
  
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  A soil temperature of 18°C plus will result in improved germination and increase the yield potential. Farmers indicated that for about 7 out of 10 years, farmers which were in a position to plant in April (earlier) had a higher yield since the plants are better developed and more resilient to drought and diseases.
  
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  There is a huge difference between conventional and no-till cultivation practices. With no-till plants can still survive after 14-days with no rainfall with the exception of August/September when even with no-till cultivation there will also be losses. More and more farmers are switching to no-till.
  
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  Farmers are keeping more livestock as an adaptation
  
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  Also considering GM seed.
  
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  Farmers are growing more medics and less wheat to provide grazing instead of crop
  
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  Changing to low cost-low yield system
  
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  SAFEX futures can help to reduce risk.
  

6.3.4 Olifants East/Inkomati (small scale/subsistence)

As was outlined in section 5.4.5 farmers highlighted three climatic stressors that affect their activities:

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  Delayed or unpredictable rainfall
  
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  Heavy rainfall
  
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  High temperatures
  

When considering the responses to climatic stress, the research found that farmers mainly employ short-term coping mechanisms for dealing with delays and variability in the timing of the onset. Therefore, while the farmers get by from season to season, they have few mechanisms by which they can override, and permanently reduce their vulnerability to variability and delays in the timing of the onset. There is the constant threat of experiencing crop losses if the rains do come late or at unexpected times. This is of concern, especially given that the climate is projected to change into the future. While it has been difficult to detect specific trends in the rainfall projections, there are indications that September through November could get wetter. This could be positive for the farmers, as wetting in the start of the rainy season could mean that the onset of the summer rainfall would not shift to later in the year. It would also mean that farmers would experience a good start for the season, with sufficient moisture.

The second climatic stressor investigated was heavy rainfall. Farmers were found to have a number of adaptation mechanisms to respond to this, mainly due to the work of a local NGO, AWARD. These mechanisms that limit erosion, were mainly used in Motlamogatsane, the village where AWARD had been working, and were not found to have spread across to other villages. Based on these findings it therefore seems that some of the farmers, more specifically those from Motlamogatsane, are more capable of dealing with erosion than are farmers from the other villages.

Rainfall projections indicate, with relatively low confidence, that the number of rainfall events with over 50 mm in one day could increase slightly in parts of the first half of the rainy season. If this was to happen, there should be concern, as this is the time of the season when crops are young and weak. As the farmers interviewed highlighted, young crops are more likely to erode than older crops when exposed to heavy rainfall.

Due to the low confidence found in the rainfall projections, there should be caution with regard to how rainfall related issues are addressed. Research, projects and other interventions focusing on promoting adaptive actions, should thus be cautious with introducing adaptation mechanisms concentrating on specific changes in the rainfall. Rather than for example focusing on heavy rainfall in the first part of the season specifically, there should be a focus on managing heavy rainfall and erosion through the whole rainy season. Generally speaking, this reflects the need to shift from a deterministic view on seasonal rainfall patterns, towards strengthening farmers’ capacity to deal with more unpredictable rainfall patterns.

For dealing with high temperatures, farmers were found to have a number of adaptation mechanisms, some of which are not accessible to many of the farmers due to the related costs. Importantly, many of the farmers said that there is nothing they can do about high temperatures, as they cannot afford options such as nets, which is not to say that there are no affordable adaptation mechanisms. The work that AWARD did on erosion with the farmers from Motlamogatsane shows how affordable and accessible adaptation options can be discovered through a process of reflection and knowledge sharing within the community.

As has been outlined above, small-scale farmers in Bushbuckridge have somewhat limited capacity for dealing with current climatic stress. Climate change projections indicate that small-scale farmers in Bushbuckridge will experience changes in rainfall patterns and increasing temperatures. This further implies that the current thresholds of what the farmers are able to deal with are at the risk of being more commonly exceeded in the future, including the summer rainfall only starting in December, heavy rainfall around planting times and more frequent days with over 40 degrees Celsius. Projections, together with the fact that historical data from the area are also showing trends of temperature increases and drying, reflect the need for considerable focus on adaptation action in the Bushbuckridge area, and on strengthening the farmers’ general capacity for dealing with climatic stress. Such focus would be necessary in order to shift the current thresholds to a point where they are not repeatedly exceeded in the future climate.

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