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Advantage: Hurricanes Ext.

Worse Hurricanes Are Inevitable

Billion-dollar hurricanes are inevitable and increasing by 4.8% a year

Bryan Walsh, Senior Editor, May 24, 2013, “Tornadoes Were Just the Beginning. This Hurricane Season Is Going to be Stormy,” Time,

http://science.time.com/2013/05/24/tornadoes-were-just-the-beginning-this-hurricane-season-is-going-to-be-stormy/, Accessed 5/14/2014

There’s no way of knowing how many of the storms to come this summer will indeed make landfall, but it stands to reason that the more storms that form, the greater the chance one will eventually end up in our backyard. According to NOAA, billion-dollar disasters are increasing in the U.S. at a rate of about 4.8% a year—there were 11 just last year. That’s mostly a result of economic growth—as the country gets richer, even with inflation, any weather disaster that disrupt the economy will cost more. But climate change is likely playing a role as well—in the case of hurricanes, warming temperatures seem to make storms stronger, and rising sea levels increase the threat of coastal flooding.

Hurricanes worse than Sandy are inevitable and will costs hundreds of billions

Anthony R. Wood and Sandy Bauers, Staff Writers, October 29, 2013, “Experts Hope to Use Lessons of Sandy to Deal with Bigger Storms,” The Philadelphia Inquirer, reposted on Emergency Management, http://www.emergencymgmt.com/disaster/Experts-Use-Lessons-Sandy.html, Accessed 5/14/2014No scientist has attributed the gentleness to global warming, however, and no one expects that luck to continue. Some season soon, experts say, something worse than Sandy is all but inevitable, even without changes in storm intensity. The pins are set up, and the weight of the ball isn't going to make much difference. "We really can ill afford to keep having these $30 (billion) to 100 billion disasters," NOAA's Davidson said. "Now, we think we're going to see $100 billion disasters on a regular basis."

Warming will make new hurricanes more intense

Jennifer Chu, MIT News Office, July 8, 2013, “Bigger storms ahead,” MIT News, http://newsoffice.mit.edu/2013/bigger-storms-ahead-global-warming-0708, Accessed 5/15/2014

For the past 40 years — as far back as satellite records show — the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones has remained relatively stable: About 90 of these storms spin through the world each year, and over the decades, cyclones’ average intensity and maximum wind speed have also remained consistent. But according to a report by MIT’s Kerry Emanuel, the coming century may whip up stronger and more frequent storms as the planet warms. Emanuel found that rising greenhouse-gas emissions may contribute to a 10 to 40 percent increase in the frequency of tropical cyclones by the year 2100. These storms may produce 45 percent more power, Emanuel predicts, generating stronger winds, rain and storm surges around the world. This ramped-up storm activity will likely be felt most acutely in the North Pacific, as well as the North Atlantic and the southern Indian Ocean.

Newer hurricanes will be stronger and more frequent

Andrew Freedman, Staff Writer, July 9, 2013, “Hurricanes And Climate Change: Storms Likely To Get Stronger And More Frequent, Study Shows,” Huffington Post, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/07/09/hurricanes-climate-change_n_3567007.html, Accessed 5/15/2014

Hurricanes are Mother Nature’s largest and most destructive storms. Fed by warm ocean waters and moist atmospheric conditions, about 90 such storms — also known as tropical cyclones — form worldwide each year. With the population of coastal areas growing daily and sea level on the rise, how these monster storms may change as the climate continues to warm is an increasingly urgent question facing climate scientists, insurance companies, and public officials. A new study by Kerry Emanuel, a prominent hurricane researcher at MIT, found that contrary to previous findings, tropical cyclones are likely to become both stronger and more frequent in the years to come, especially in the western North Pacific, where storms can devastate the heavily populated coastlines of Asian nations. Emanuel's research showed the same holds true for the North Atlantic, where about 12 percent of the world's tropical cyclones spin each year.

New hurricanes will cause more damage, even if not more intense

Bryan Walsh, Senior Editor, July 09, 2013, “Climate Change Could Make Hurricanes Stronger—and More Frequent,” Time,

http://science.time.com/2013/07/09/a-new-study-says-hurricanes-will-get-stronger-and-more-frequent-thanks-to-climate-change/, Accessed 5/14/2014

We’ll see in the decades to come whether Emanuel is right. But in a way, it may not matter all that much. As Sandy showed, hurricanes already pose a tremendous threat to our coastal cities. And that threat will continue to grow no matter what climate change does to tropical storm frequency or intensity because we’re putting more and more people and property along the water’s edge. Remember Miami? In 1926 the city was devastated by a Category 4 hurricane. (Sandy barely ranked as a Category 1 by the time it made landfall.) The difference is that there wasn’t much of a Miami back in 1926—the city’s population had just passed 100,000. Today more than 2.5 million people call Miami-Dade county home, and a hurricane of the same sort that hit in 1926 that hit now would cause $180 billion in damages. Whatever climate change does to hurricanes, we need to be ready.

Hurricanes will progressively get worse

Andrew Freedman, Staff Writer, July 9, 2013, “Hurricanes And Climate Change: Storms Likely To Get Stronger And More Frequent, Study Shows,” Huffington Post, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/07/09/hurricanes-climate-change_n_3567007.html, Accessed 5/15/2014

There are, however, two key points of agreement between Emanuel’s new study and the rest of the scientific literature on hurricanes and climate change. The first is that as ocean temperatures continue to increase, the frequency of high intensity hurricanes is projected to increase as well. “In practice, these events cause most of the damage,” Emanuel said. For example, Hurricanes Katrina, Rita, and Wilma — all of which were major hurricanes according to the Saffir-Simpson Scale — caused nearly $200 billion in damage alone in 2005, which was the most recent year a major hurricane made landfall in the U.S. With global sea levels on the rise due to climate change, major hurricanes will be capable of doing even more harm in the decades to come, battering coastlines with higher storm surges than they have in the past. Second, virtually all the studies show that tropical cyclones are likely to dump significantly more rainfall in coming years compared to the historical record, and inland flooding is one of the leading causes of hurricane-related deaths and damage.

Internal Links

Offshore wind farms can mitigate hurricane impacts by half, especially storm surges

Victoria Bekiempis, Staff Writer, April 9, 2014, “Taming hurricanes,” Sydney Morning Herald, http://www.smh.com.au/environment/ weather/taming-hurricanes-20140408-36aal.html, Accessed 5/14/2014

If true, that could make a pretty significant dent: Katrina, a strong Category 4 storm on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, had 225km/h winds at landfall. Most Eastern hurricanes are weaker, averaging somewhere between 120 and 180km/h per hour. Reducing them by half, Jacobson says, would mean those hurricanes would have only the force of tropical depressions or storms. Jacobson's study also predicts that wind farms could shrink storm surge — when a hurricane causes waters along the coast to rise far above the normal tide, typically resulting in extensive flooding — by up to 79 per cent, due to lower wind speeds. It's hard to calculate average storm surge—the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale stopped including surge in categorisations in 2010. But because storm surge is "often the greatest threat to life and property from a hurricane," NOAA says, less surge could mean less catastrophic damage.

The newest research proves widespread deployment of offshore wind mitigates damage from hurricanes

Anthony Watts, Staff Writer, February 27, 2014, “Claim: Offshore Wind Turbines for ‘Taming Hurricanes’,” WUWT,

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/02/27/claim-offshore-wind-turbines-for-taming-hurricanes/, Accessed 5/10/2014

Wind turbines placed in the ocean to generate electricity may have another major benefit: weakening hurricanes before the storms make landfall. New research by the University of Delaware and Stanford University shows that an army of offshore wind turbines could reduce hurricanes’ wind speeds, wave heights and flood-causing storm surge. The findings, published online this week in Nature Climate Change, demonstrate for the first time that wind turbines can buffer damage to coastal cities during hurricanes. “The little turbines can fight back the beast,” said study co-author Cristina Archer, associate professor in the University of Delaware’s College of Earth, Ocean, and Environment. 

New studies prove wind turbines can significantly mitigate hurricane intensity

The Daily Caller News Foundation, Staff Writer, February 27, 2014, “Study claims giant offshore wind turbines will blow away hurricanes,” Red Alert Politics, http://redalertpolitics.com/2014/02/27/study-claims-giant-offshore-wind-turbines-will-blow-away-hurricanes/, Accessed 5/14/2014

Natural disasters like Hurricane Katrina and Superstorm Sandy would become things of the past if the U.S. built massive wind turbines off the coast, according to a new study. Such mammoth wind farms would be able to slow hurricane wind speeds and storm surges. The study, published in the journal Nature Climate Change, claims that a “massive field of wind turbines could slow hurricane wind speeds by as much as 92 miles per hour and reduce storm surges by 79 percent in some situations,”according to the Houston Chronicle. “If people are on the edge of whether they want to do offshore wind in the East Coast or Gulf Coast, I think this should be an additional motivation for doing it,” said Stanford University professor Mark Jacobson, one of the report’s authors.

Even Small Wind Farms Good

Even smaller arrays can mitigate hurricanes in the interim

Robert Bowen, Staff Writer, March 5, 2014, “Can offshore wind farms also reduce damage from hurricanes?,” The Examiner, http://www.examiner.com/article/can-offshore-wind-farms-also-reduce-damage-from-hurricanes, Accessed 5/14/2014

The problem is 78,000 wind turbines is more than exist in any single wind farm in the world. Furthermore, it would be impossible in the short or mid-term to even build 78,000 turbines. Jacobsen counters that by saying that even smaller wind farms can still reduce a hurricane’s wrath, just to a lesser extent. And smaller wind farms would be less costly than sea walls, which also reduce a hurricane’s damage only slightly.

Impact Ext. – Biodiversity Internal Links

Hurricanes destroy ecosystems in multiple ways

Creedence Gerlach, Staff Writer, June 20, 2013, “The Effects of Hurricanes in Marine Ecosystems,” Aquaviews, http://aquaviews.net/ocean-news/effects-hurricanes-marine-ecosystems/#, Accessed 5/17/2014

The wind is a strong factor that causes just as much damage as water. It destroys the equipment of boaters and fishermen. Their activities are thrown off schedule. In regards to the ecosystem, a storm can destroy boats and pollute the water with debris. A hurricane causes the most problems on the coast where it applies the most force. Fast winds, heavy rains and floods are guaranteed to inflict some damage. A storm surge leads to sediment erosion. The protective parts will dwindle below sea level. Non-aquatic animals suffer as well. When the wind hits, the birds and rodents have to leave right away. The wetlands and forests become unlivable for some creatures.

Hurricanes kill hundreds of millions of fish

Kevin Coyle, Formerly president of both American Rivers and the National Environmental Education Foundation, and currently VP for Education and Training at the National Wildlife Federation, October 30, 2012, “Hurricane Sandy’s Impact on Fish and Wildlife,” http://blog.nwf.org/2012/ 10/hurricane-sandys-impact-on-fish-and-wildlife/, Accessed 5/17/2014

Hurricane Irene, like other hurricanes, generated massive waves and violent action on the surface.  When hurricane Andrew hit Louisiana the government estimated that more than 9 million fish were killed offshore.  Similarly an assessment of the effect of that same storm on the Everglades Basin in Florida showed that 182 million fish were killed.  Hurricane Katrina also had a huge effect on dolphin species.  Many dolphins were hurt during the storm and were rescued and underwent rehabilitation.

Hurricanes foster extensive ecosystem damage

Creedence Gerlach, Staff Writer, June 20, 2013, “The Effects of Hurricanes in Marine Ecosystems,” Aquaviews, http://aquaviews.net/ocean-news/effects-hurricanes-marine-ecosystems/#, Accessed 5/17/2014

Everyone knows the devastating aftermath that is left behind by hurricanes. However, not everyone knows the specific details of the situation. Houses get flooded out, reefs erode and turtles become displaced. Whether the storm is light or heavy, there are lasting hurricane effects on marine ecosystems. A hurricane has different ways of affecting a coastal ecosystem. Strong winds and deep water ruin an area and compromise the lives of aquatic animals. A flood causes erosion that affects water beds and reefs. Saltwater that enters a non-salty region can cause high numbers of fish deaths. Once the habitat is undermined, the rebuilding process takes weeks or years. Some floodwater runs over exposed pollutants and then enters the sea. The water is full of toxins like pesticides and uncovered sewage. Toxins reduce the cleanliness of water and reduce oxygen levels.

Several species are killed by hurricanes

Kevin Coyle, Formerly president of both American Rivers and the National Environmental Education Foundation, and currently VP for Education and Training at the National Wildlife Federation, October 30, 2012, “Hurricane Sandy’s Impact on Fish and Wildlife,” http://blog.nwf.org/2012/ 10/hurricane-sandys-impact-on-fish-and-wildlife/, Accessed 5/17/2014

Sea birds and waterfowl are most exposed in hurricanes.  Songbirds and smaller woodland birds, by contrast, have less difficulty. They are specially adapted to hold on, lay low and ride things out. In very strong winds, their toes automatically tighten around their perch. This holds them in place during high winds or when they sleep.  Woodpeckers and other cavity nesters will, barring the destruction of the tree itself, ride out storms in tree holes.  Shorebirds, such as sandpipers, often move to inland areas. In a unique effect of cyclonic hurricanes, the eye of the storm with its fast-moving walls of intense wind can form a massive “bird cage” holding birds inside the eye until the storm dissipates.  It is often the eye of the storm that displaces birds, more than its strong winds.  Sandy’s eye was less well-defined when compared to other hurricanes. Birds are not the only species affected by the winds.  Sea mammals can be harmed too.  While many can seek shelter in open water or in near shore shelter, some dolphins and manatees have actually been blown ashore during major storms.

Impact Ext. – Biodiversity Impacts

Biodiversity is essential to all life on the planet

Bryan Walsh, Staff Writer, September 18, 2010, “Wildlife: A Global Convention on Biodiversity Opens in Japan, But Can It Make a Difference?,” TIME, http://ecocentric.blogs.time.com/2010/10/18/wildlife-a-global-convention-on-biodiversity-opens-in-japan-but-can-it-make-a-difference/#ixzz131wU6CSp, Accessed 5/16/2014

With that cheery backdrop, representatives from nearly 200 nations are meeting in the Japanese city of Nagoya—home to Toyota and not a whole lot else—for the 10th summit of the CBD, where they will set new goals for reducing species loss and slowing habitat destruction. At the very least, they should know how critical the biodiversity challenge is—as Japanese Environment Minister Ryo Matsumoto said in an opening speech: All life on Earth exists thanks to the benefits from biodiversity in the forms of fertile soil, clear water and clean air. We are now close to a ‘tipping point’ – that is, we are about to reach a threshold beyond which biodiversity loss will become irreversible, and may cross that threshold in the next 10 years if we do not make proactive efforts for conserving biodiversity.

Better Than Sea Walls

Offshore wind turbines are better than sea walls and cost less because of electricity

Mark Z. Jacobson, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Stanford University, Cristina L. Archer, College of Earth, Ocean, and Environment, University of Delaware, and Willett Kempton, College of Earth, Ocean, and Environment, and Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Delaware, March 2014, “Taming hurricanes with arrays of offshore wind turbines,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 4, pp. 195-200, http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v4/n3/full/nclimate2120.html, Accessed 5/11/2014

Finally, what are the costs of sea walls versus offshore wind turbine arrays? Turbines pay for themselves from the sale of electricity they produce and other non-market benefits (Table 2), but sea walls have no other function than to reduce storm surge (they do not even reduce damaging hurricane wind speeds), so society bears their full cost. Conversely, if wind turbines are used only for hurricane damage avoidance, an array covering 32 km of linear coastline in front of New York City would cost ~$210 billion with no payback (Supplementary Information), higher than the cost of proposed sea walls, $10-29 billion. Thus, turbines cost much less than sea walls to protect a city, as turbines also generate electricity year-round, but if turbines were used only for hurricane protection, sea walls would be less expensive.

Wind turbines are better than seawalls and pay for themselves

The Daily Caller News Foundation, Staff Writer, February 27, 2014, “Study claims giant offshore wind turbines will blow away hurricanes,” Red Alert Politics, http://redalertpolitics.com/2014/02/27/study-claims-giant-offshore-wind-turbines-will-blow-away-hurricanes/, Accessed 5/14/2014

Using computer modelling of real storms, the study notes that 78,000 massive wind turbines across a 35,000 square kilometer area of ocean on the Gulf Coast near New Orleans would have slowed Hurricane Katrina’s wind speeds at landfall by 80 to 98 miles per hour and reduced storm surge by 79 percent. Similarly, the same turbine configuration would have been able to slow Superstorm Sandy by 78 to 87 miles per hour and reduce storm surge by 34 percent if it was off the coast from New York City. Jacobson also argues that the massive wind turbines would come at no cost because they would pay for themselves with the amount of power they generate. “New York is considering building $20 billion in seawalls,” Jacobson said. “Seawalls don’t pay for themselves. Turbines do.”