West Coast Publishing Ocean 2014 affirmative page

AT: Counterplans

AT: UNCLOS Ratification Not Key to Resource Development

Ratification is key – the US has to be a party to the treaty to benefit

John Oliver, Senior Ocean Advisor at the U.S. Coast Guard, Summer, 2013, “The U.N. Convention

on the Law of the Sea: Now is the time to join,” Proceedings, http://www.marcon.com/library/articles/2013/PDF%20Articles/Arctic%20and%20UNCLOS.pdf, accessed 4/29/14

Despite claims from critics of the convention that the United States could and should develop its continental shelf resources beyond 200 miles without becoming a party to UNCLOS, it stands to reason that any oil, gas, or mining company would want the legal certainty of the convention before investing billions of dollars to develop an offshore field, no matter how rich it might be.6 In addition, the convention’s deep seabed mining provisions, as amended in 1994, would permit and encourage American businesses to pursue free-market-oriented approaches to deep ocean mining, including in the Arctic Ocean.

LOST Codification is key to credibility

Bonnie S. Glaser, Senior Fellow Center for Strategic and International Studies, April 2012, “Armed Clash in the South China Sea”, http://www.cfr.org/world/armed-clash-south-china-sea/p27883, accessed 4/25/14

First, the United States should ratify UNCLOS; though it voluntarily adheres to its principles and the Obama administration has made a commitment to ratify the convention, the fact that the United States has not yet ratified the treaty lends credence to the perception that it only abides by international conventions when doing so aligns with its national interests. Ratifying UNCLOS would put this speculation to rest. It would also bolster the U.S. position in favor of rules-based behavior, give the United States a seat at the table when UNCLOS signatories discuss such issues as EEZ rights, and generally advance U.S. economic and strategic interests.

AT: Topicality

AT: Topicality - Development

UNCLOS increases development of the oceans by providing a legal framework

Miguel de Serpa Soares, Under-Secretary-General for Legal Affairs The United Nations Legal Counsel, February 3, 2014, “The role of UNCLOS in sustainable development,” legal.un.org/ola/media/info_from_lc/mss/speeches/MSS_DOALOS_Side_event-3-Feb-2014.pdf, accessed 4/20/14

More than thirty years after its opening for signature and twenty years after its entry into force, UNCLOS continues to provide an effective, comprehensive and overarching international legal framework for the oceans and seas. Indeed, the General Assembly has recognized the pre-eminent contribution of the Convention to the strengthening of peace, security, cooperation and friendly relations among all nations, to the promotion of the economic and social advancement of all peoples of the world, as well as to the sustainable development of the oceans and seas. Because UNCLOS covers a wide range of ocean issues, it also provides the legal framework for their sustainable development.

The legal framework itself is development

International Maritime Organization, January 19, 2012, http://www.imo.org/OurWork/Legal/Documents/Implications%20of%20UNCLOS%20for%20IMO.pdf, accessed 5/5/14

The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea was adopted in 1982. It lays down a comprehensive regime of law and order in the world's oceans and seas establishing rules governing all uses of the oceans and their resources. It embodies in one instrument traditional rules for the uses of the oceans and at the same time introduces new legal concepts and regimes and addresses new concerns. The Convention also provides the framework for further development of specific areas of the law of the sea.

UNCLOS is a necessary prerequisite to development

Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Republic of Korea, July 2011, www.mofa.go.kr/ENG/policy/treaties/lawsea/index.jsp?menu=m_20_30_20, accessed 5/5/14

The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea and the Agreement Relating to the Implementation of Part XI of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea establish universal principles of the law of the sea which comprehensively regulate the breadth, jurisdiction and legal status of the seas, conservation of marine living resources, protection of the marine environment, development of resources of the seabed area and the peaceful settlement of maritime disputes. As international efforts to establish a new maritime order based on such principles of the law of the sea are under way, the Republic of Korea, as a major maritime power, has made every effort to actively and sincerely take part in the creation of a new maritime order.

China US Conflict DA - Aff Responses

Non Unique

U.S. ocean development competition with China is high now

Jianhai Xiang, editor, 2010, “Marine Science & Technology in China: A Roadmap to 2050”, A Research Group on Marine of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Publication, P. xix-x

The United States, Japan, other countries, and regional organizations are intensifying their adjustments in the ocean or the development with new strategies and policies, and increasing the fund-input into marine science and technology research and development in order to seize the initiative in a new round of international maritime competition. Ocean plays an irreplaceable role in China’s current and long-term development. As the wealth of valuable resources and the largest space for sustainable development for human society, ocean is particularly important to China—the most populated country in the world with relative shortage of a wide range of strategic resources. Nowadays, under the economic globalization and multi-polarization of world politics, the following issues will certainly become the prior research areas in China: marine rights and interests and national security; investigation and assessment of marine biological and mineral resources; marine environmental monitoring and ecological restoration; regional development and integrated management of coastal zone; ocean circulation systems and climate variability predictions, as well as modern maritime security and so on, which all depend on marine science and technology innovation and progress. As a big marine country, China has 18,000 km of coastline, nearly three million km2 of the blue territory in which marine resources are rich. However, compared with the United States, Japan and other marine strong powers, China’s marine science and technology and marine industries are far behind the requirements of a marine power. China is facing strong challenges to the national marine security and economic, social development, and at same time, China is facing an excellent opportunity for future development in marine science and technology. How to meet the needs in national strategies, in rapid economic and social development for marine science and technology, how to solve major bottleneck problems and constraints, how to achieve a leap in the development of marine science and technology, and how to construct a marine power, have become the focuses of the whole nation and all communities.

US/Chinese naval confrontation now

Benjamin Carlson, senior China correspondent, The Global Post, “China is playing chicken with the US military in the South China Sea”, 1/30/14, http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/asia-pacific/china/140127/china-US-military-confrontation-south-china-sea-chicken, accessed 5/11/14

That’s perhaps why some US strategists recently called for the American military to, in effect, stop being the first to flinch when provoked by Chinese vessels. In a recent article for Foreign Affairs, Elbridge Colby and Ely Ratner of the Center for a New American Security argued that the US should raise the stakes for China, putting the onus on them to be the peacemaker who backs down. “China is taking advantage of Washington’s risk aversion by rocking the boat,” the authors write, “seeing what it can extract in the process and letting the United States worry about righting it.”

Increased deployment by both sides proves US/China naval conflict now

Naoya Yoshino and Gaku Shimada, Staff Writers, March 7, 2014, Nikkei Asian Review, “US, China ready to each assert power in Pacific”, http://asia.nikkei.com/Politics-Economy/International-Relations/US-China-ready-to-each-assert-power-in-Pacific, accessed 5/1/14

The United States and China are locked in an increasingly fierce bid for military influence in the Pacific amid lingering tensions in the East China and South China seas. Updating its global strategy, the U.S. Defense Department announced the Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) on Tuesday, which calls for deploying more naval vessels to the Pacific. On Wednesday, the Chinese government unveiled a record defense budget for 2014. The country is steadily building up its military strength to counter the U.S. military's "pivot" to Asia and to forge a relationship of equals with the U.S.

Inevitable

U.S. China power struggle over southeast Asian ocean resources ongoing and inevitable

Alan Dupont, professor of international security at the University of NSW and a non-resident fellow at the Lowy Institute, May 14, 2014, “China’s maritime power trip”, The Australian,

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/features/chinas-maritime-power-trip/story-e6frg6z6-1226929168239#, accessed 5/14/14

Five of 10 Southeast Asian states — Vietnam, The Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia and Brunei — have serious or potentially serious maritime disputes with China, along with Japan and the two Koreas. If Taiwan is ­included, this adds up to more than half the polities in East Asia. China’s worst nightmare is a more assertive, independently minded, rearmed Japan. But each outbreak of hostilities over the contested Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands in the East China Sea makes this outcome more likely, with Tokyo moving to reverse nearly 70 years of pacifism by allowing the Self-Defense Forces to be deployed for combat outside Japan. Perversely, China’s patent unwillingness to accommodate other countries’ equally strong claims to the maritime features and resources that China covets has provided the opportunity for the US to reinvigorate its alliance system in East Asia and more effectively balance against China. All this raises the question of why Beijing would engage in such an obviously counterproductive strategy if the consequences are likely to prove inimical to China’s carefully cultivated international image and long-term relations with neighbouring states. There are several linked explanations. Like all rising powers, China wants to change the regional order to advance its strategic ambitions, which cannot be met while the old, US-led order prevails. Beijing’s long-term aim seems to be what might be called a Monroe Doctrine with Chinese characteristics. From a Chinese perspective this makes perfect strategic sense. If a rising America could construct a Monroe Doctrine in the 19th century as a blunt but effective instrument for keeping other powers out of the eastern Pacific, why should an ascendant, 21st-century China not seek a comparable ­outcome in the western Pacific? This, of course, represents a direct challenge to US pre-eminence in Asia and, more particularly, the US Navy’s dominance of the western Pacific, where the 7th Fleet has ruled the waves since the destruction of the Japanese navy in World War II. In a little noticed development, China became a net importer of coal in 2007 and overtook Japan as the world’s biggest importer of coal at the end of 2011. A substantial proportion of its future coal imports will transit the South China Sea from mines in Australia and Indonesia. The rich fishing grounds of the western Pacific are also a vital source of fish for the Chinese economy, making them as critical to China’s future food security as oil, gas and coal are to its energy future. China is the world’s largest fish producer as well as consumer, with the fishing sector contributing $330 billion annually to the economy, about 3.5 per cent of gross domestic product. With wild fish in decline and demand rising, fish have become a strategic commodity, to be protected and defended — if necessary, by force. This resource vulnerability weighs heavily on the minds of Chinese leaders who, in addition to worrying about terrorism, piracy and environmental disruptions to their energy supplies, are acutely aware that their main competitor, the US, exercises effective control over the Malacca Strait and most of the western ­Pacific, courtesy of the US Navy.

Collision inevitable- resource depletion

Paul Sherman February 24 2014 “Evaluating Options: Responses to China’s Maritime Strategy”

http://chinafocus.us/2014/02/24/evaluating-options-responses-chinas-maritime-strategy/

Conflicts involving maritime territorial claims in East Asia have risen in recent years due to resource availability and an increasingly powerful China. Because land-based resources have well-defined ownership, more attention is now being paid to ocean resources like underwater hydrocarbon deposits and fisheries. With improved technology making deep-sea extraction possible, the estimated 90 million barrels of oil and 1.5 trillion ft of natural gas under the SCS/ECS have become an attractive prize to any nation able to tap them (Null). The fisheries within the exclusive economic zones surrounding the disputed landmasses are becoming increasingly valuable due to fish stock depletion worldwide. The rise of China as a dominant regional power exacerbates competition for resources because its strength, and decreasing fear of US retaliation, encourages it to challenge weaker states for the rights to resources in its backyard. By extension, this incentivizes China’s regional opponents to make or defend their own territorial claims to contain this rising threat.

No Link - Competition

China has shared interests with the U.S. in preserving maritime commons

Roy Kamphausen, David Lai, Andrew Scobell, Editors, June 2010 THE PLA AT HOME AND ABROAD: ASSESSING THE OPERATIONAL CAPABILITIES OF CHINA’S MILITARY http://www.

strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pubs/display.cfm?pubID=995, accessed 5/14/14

It thus seems likely that for the foreseeable future China will have limited capabilities but significant shared interests with the United States and other nations in the vast majority of the global maritime commons. In fact, the prospects for China to participate further in the global maritime regime as a maritime strategic stakeholder look better than ever, now that Beijing increasingly has the capabilities to do so substantively.202 The United States, in accordance with its new maritime strategy, has welcomed China’s deployment to the Gulf of Aden as an example of cooperation that furthers international security under the concept of Global Maritime Partnerships. Admiral Timothy Keating, Commander, U.S. Pacific Command, has vowed to “work closely” with the Chinese task group, and use the event as a potential “springboard for the resumption of dialog between People’s Liberation Army (PLA) forces and the U.S. Pacific Command forces.”203 In this sense, the Gulf of Aden, with no Chinese territorial claims or EEZ to inflame tensions, may offer a “safe strategic space” for U.S.-China confidence building measures and the development of “habits” of maritime cooperation.204

US-China influence isn’t zero sum

Jing Huang, Senior Fellow @ John L. Thornton China Center, “China-US Economic Relationship Not a Zero-Sum Game” China Daily, May 28 2007, http://www.brookings.edu/views/op-ed/huang/ 20070528.htm, accessed 5/12/14

Despite the much publicized tensions and tit-for-tat, the second round of the China-US Strategic Economic Dialogue (SED) ended in a positive atmosphere, with both Washington and Beijing hailing the Washington meeting as a success. The two countries have agreed to deepen cooperation on a wide variety of issues, including financial services, energy efficiency, environmental protection and civil aviation. They have also agreed to make further efforts to address China's currency value, enforcement of intellectual property rights, and implementation of World Trade Organization commitments. Strategically, the most significant outcome of this round of SED is the clearly expressed commitment from both sides to continuing the SED process. This came amidst criticism from various interest groups that the SED has failed to achieve satisfactory results. This commitment is significant not only because the continuing process helps enhance the mutual understanding necessary for resolving existing problems, but also because leaders in both countries realize that confrontations do not serve the long-term interests of either nation. Indeed, thanks to the overwhelming globalization and China's ever-growing integration into the world economy, the US and China have become each other's second largest trading partners. The deepening and irreversible economic interdependence speaks volumes about this unprecedented round of SED. Never has a China-US dialogue drawn in so many high-level government officials from both countries, and never have their discussions assumed such breadth and depth. Given their increasingly interconnected interests, both Washington and Beijing have become reluctant to resort to unilateral action to solve the problems in their economic relations. Such a confrontational approach would inevitably boomerang. Instead, as proven by the just-ended talks, only through cooperation can the two great powers realistically hope to reach the meaningful compromises necessary for achieving win-win solutions. It is in the spirit of seeking compromise rather than provoking confrontation that both the Chinese and US teams, led by Vice-Premier Wu Yi and Secretary of Treasury Henry Paulson, took painstaking efforts to prevent their disagreements on key issues from upsetting the more important strategic interests. While standing unflinchingly on principles, Beijing demonstrated notable flexibility and willingness to accommodate US concerns. Likewise, political leaders in Washington displayed commendable patience in their efforts to move the dialogue forward, despite forces aimed at derailing the process. Even Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, who was perceived as relentless in demanding Beijing take serious action to address the issue of "unfair trade", showed her hospitality and rationality to the visiting Chinese team. This spirit of mutual accommodation indicates a consensus that the China-US economic relationship does not have to be a zero-sum game, and that there are enormous stakes in improving this relationship through compromise and cooperation, instead of damaging duels. It demands great political skill for both sides to translate their commitment to further cooperation into meaningful solutions to the persistent China-US problems. However, most of these problems, especially the trade imbalance, are not necessarily policy oriented. They are rooted in the two nations' domestic economic structures that have not readily come into line with globalization.

No Link- Cooperative Development

U.S. and Chinese ocean development is cooperative

Environment News Service July 12, 2013, “U.S., China Collaborate on Climate, Oceans, Energy, Wildlife”, http://www.ecology.com/2013/07/12/us-china-collaborate-climate-oceans/, accessed 5/14/14

The two countries agreed to continue their 20-year partnership to combat the use of drift nets on the high seas. The U.S. Coast Guard and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Fisheries Service will again welcome officers from China Fishery Law Enforcement Command this summer on U.S. Coast Guard cutters patrolling the Pacific Ocean for illegal, unreported, and unregulated fishing. NOAA and the Chinese Academy of Fishery Sciences affirmed their commitment to the Living Marine Resources Panel, including the upcoming meeting in February 2014 in Seattle, and ongoing projects, including joint research on the Western Gray Whale, information exchange on alternative feeds research for aquaculture production and sea turtle research, scientist staff exchange on stock enhancement and sea ranching, and a workshop to exchange information on oil spill effects on living marine resources. China and the United Sates expanded their EcoPartnership program with the signing of six new partnerships to reduce greenhouse gases emissions, improve energy efficiency and create jobs. The new agreements will add six partnerships to the original group of 18, said Chinese State Councilor Yang Jiechi at a signing ceremony. The EcoPartnership program was founded under the Ten Year Framework for Cooperation on Energy and Environment signed in 2008. At the signing ceremony, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State William Burns said, “The six new EcoPartnerships we are committing to today are the best of the best. Some of you will be working on energy efficiency while others will be creating cutting-edge technologies to use landfill gas, conserve our groundwater resources and create plant-based plastic bottles. Whatever your project, I wish you the best in your work together.”

No link or foreign policy friction- China even works with U.S. companies when it develops its own resources and competes with American interests

Simon Hall March 31, 2014 Wall Street Journal “China's New Wager: Pulling Energy From the Ocean”

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303287804579446904069462752, accessed 5/15/14

A race is under way to unlock one of the world's biggest untapped sources of clean energy—the ocean—with China emerging as an important testing ground. That could heighten competition with Western companies, especially if Chinese businesses begin using technologies developed with joint-venture partners to expand rapidly. The European Union so far has led efforts to harness the sea to make electricity, for which there are three principal techniques: underwater turbines that draw power from the ebb and flow of tides, surface-based floats that rely on wave motion and systems that exploit differences in water temperature. The world's first commercial, grid-connected tidal-flow generator was installed in Northern Ireland in 2008. Germany's Siemens AG SIE.XE +1.31% , a big investor in wave and tidal power, predicts that tidal currents alone could someday power 250 million households world-wide. France's Alstom SA ALO.FR +0.49% also is developing the technology. But with 11,000 miles of coastline rich with energy potential and pollution that is getting worse, China is seen by many experts as an ideal location to pioneer and commercialize ocean-energy technologies. China is stepping up spending in the sector, and foreign companies including U.S.-based Lockheed Martin Corp. LMT +0.51% are testing equipment and entering joint ventures in the country. Among the projects under study with Chinese backing: the dynamic tidal-power wall, with turbines using curved blades that are designed to allow eels and fish to pass through safely. If approved, the wall could supply as much electricity as 2½ large nuclear reactors—and cost as much as $30 billion. Investors include the Netherlands government and a consortium of eight Dutch companies, including engineering firms Arcadis ARCAY -0.24% NV and Strukton Groep NV. The venture dwarfs other sea-power projects and could produce electricity more cheaply than offshore wind farms, says Dimiti de Boer, a senior adviser for environment and climate change at the United Nations Industrial Development Organization The project involves building a wall running perpendicular from the coast and then branching off into a T, extending around 20 miles and studded with turbines that would channel and concentrate the power of tidal water. Beijing provided $3.3 million for feasibility studies that are under way in China. Construction is at least a decade away, though initial findings suggest that shallow waters on the Chinese, Korean and European coasts could be suitable. "China is at the cutting edge" in sea-energy technology development, says Mr. de Boer, who is based in Beijing.

No Link- Cooperative Development

U.S.-China collaborative oceans framework and ongoing consultation ensures plan is cooperative and blunts any provocation

NOAA News May 11, 2011 “U.S. and China agree to increase cooperation in greenhouse gas observing and fisheries and ocean management” http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2011/

20110511_china.html, 5/15/14

The third U.S.-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue (S&ED) meeting was held May 9–10 in Washington, D.C. A significant outcome of the S&ED relates to their cooperation on observing greenhouse gases and a renewed dialogue on bilateral fisheries and ocean management. The countries agreed to establish regular bilateral fisheries consultations that will focus on conserving and managing marine living resources, expanding current efforts in high-seas fisheries enforcement and combating illegal, unreported and unregulated (IUU) fishing. These consultations will improve cooperation between the two nations on a variety of important issues including preventing IUU fish and fish products from entering international markets, collecting data on species of particular concern in order to ensure their sustainable management and conservation, and preventing illegal or unintended take of sea turtles and other protected marine species. Currently, the United States and China work multilaterally in various regional fishery management organizations to manage shared fish stocks and participate in other global organizations that protect ocean resources as part of their mandate. Having regular bilateral consultations will allow for better coordination to achieve common goals in those organizations and an enhanced dialogue to help bridge any differences. The new fisheries consultations will also lead to opportunities for the two nations to cooperate on fisheries enforcement and other activities that will improve global fisheries and fish supplies. “This joint commitment to consult on fisheries management and enforcement will strengthen the U.S.-China relationship on fisheries management and ensure more coordinated and comprehensive management of the fish and living marine resources on which both of our economies and fishing industries depend,” said Russell Smith, deputy assistant secretary for international fisheries for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The United States and China also agreed to build upon existing agreements reached at the 18th SOA-NOAA Joint Working Group Meeting on Cooperation on Marine and Fishery Science and Technology to formulate the U.S.-China 2011–2015 Framework Plan for Ocean and Fishery Science and Technology Cooperation. This framework would guide the future cooperation between China’s State Oceanic Administration (SOA) and NOAA and promote further development of a U.S.-China large-scale multidisciplinary joint program for the Indian and Southern Oceans in the near future. This joint program will be focused on increasing our understanding of the role of the oceans in climate variability and change and support management needs.

Plan is irrelevant- China’s oceanic sphere of influence is motivated by security not economic concerns

Thanhnien News, May 31, 2013, “China's power play will up East Sea ante: analysts “,

http://thanhniennews.com/special-report/chinas-power-play-will-up-east-sea-ante-analysts-2335.html, accessed 5/26/14

Facing an increasingly nationalistic domestic audience who are pushing the Chinese new leadership to stake out its claims in a wide swathe of ocean territory, coupled with China's confidence that it can successfully impose its will there, analysts say the main drivers of China's claims to the East Sea are primarily power and security, with resources coming in a distant second.

Link Turn- Conservation  Coop

Turn- U.S. environmental conservation can be cooperative and is key to mobilize Chinese solutions which reduce future U.S.-Chinese tensions over resources

Elizabeth Economy C.V. Starr Senior Fellow and Director, Asia Studies Council on Foreign Relations March 2007 “The Case of China and the Global Environment“, http://china.usc.edu/App_Images/

Economy.pdf, accessed 5/24/14

As China moves to improve its environmental protection record while continuing to grow its economy, the United States has an important role to play in moving this effort forward. Many in the United States and the rest of the world are rightly concerned about China’s contribution to climate change, the loss of marine biodiversity and declining fish stocks, and the devastation of many of the world’s most environmentally-significant forests. Yet the United States is a significant contributor in its own right to several global environmental problems. In this context, addressing the challenge of China’s role has as much to do with identifying specific areas of cooperation as it does with establishing the U.S., itself, as a leader in addressing challenges such as global climate change and the illegal timber trade. With regard to energy use and climate change, for example, the United States should take steps to improve its own energy efficiency record, enhance energy conservation practices, and expand the use of alternative energies, all areas in which the United States lags well behind Japan, for example. Ratifying Kyoto would also permit the U.S. to play a more active role in working with China by participating in the CDM and carbon market activities. Similarly, the United States has an important role to play in reversing the trends in the illegal timber trade. The value of the wood-based products which the U.S. is likely to import from China alone during 2006 will exceed $3 billion. Import and procurement regulations that insisted on a verifiable chain of timber processing from the point of origin would be a first important step toward slowing the growth of the illegal timber trade. Certainly there is significant room for the United States to work with China to build capacity within the country to address these global environmental challenges. Many International NGOs, multinationals, universities and U.S. government agencies are already active in joint technology development, training, and the provision of new policy approaches, particularly with regard to global climate change. The INGO NRDC, for example, has been working intensively with the Chinese government to develop and implement energy efficiency codes for new buildings in China. In the lead-up to the Olympics, with U.S. government assistance, Beijing’s 44 new Olympic dormitories to house 17,000 athletes will all be LEED-certified, and the complex will include a zero-energy health clinic. General Electric and other US firms are actively engaged in pushing alternative energies, more fuel efficient engines for aircraft and locomotives, and clean coal technologies. Nonetheless, there is always the potential for more such cooperation. There is not yet an economic or technological incentive equivalent to CDM or the carbon market to encourage stronger Chinese action on issues such as the illegal timber trade or marine pollution. In the case of the timber trade, international NGOs have a long list of measures they would like to see China adopt: join timber certification programs such as those in the UK and the United States; increase domestic production through policy reforms such as fees, regulations, tax reforms for legal and sustainable wood sourcing, establish verification systems for sourcing into China.61 None has received any traction to date. In one promising case, however, World Wildlife Fund, along with other International NGOs, is working with a Chinese company, Shanghai Anxin Flooring Company, to bring its practices up to world standards. Anxin’s Beijing factories have already passed ISO certifications and, in Brazil, where the company does much of its logging, the company has established strict rules against logging on steep slopes and in important wildlife habitats.62 Since much of China’s challenge rests at the level of enforcement, the United States and several US NGOS, such as the American Bar Association, also have ongoing efforts to support the development of rule of law and civil society. These efforts speak to the core of the environmental protection effort in China today The reality, however, is that much of the burden and opportunity for China to become a leader in addressing these global environmental challenges rests within China Iitself. The Clean Development Mechanism and carbon market alone will not be sufficient to prevent Chinese greenhouse gas emissions from swamping efforts by the rest of the world to reduce their contributions. No amount of capacity building, training and even technology transfer from the international community can transform China’s contribution to the illegal timber trade and marine pollution. Real change will only arise from strong central leadership and the development of a system of political and economic incentives within the country that make environmental protection a much easier, more institutionalized effort for local officials and the Chinese people. This may mean raising the price of natural resources, such as water, to encourage conservation and recycling. Fines should be increased and penalties enforced for polluting factories. And there must be greater accountability among local officials, whether through political incentives, such as promotion opportunities, grass-roots oversight, transparency and fairness in the judicial system or even more significant moves toward political reform. Without such reforms, much of the work of China’s environmentalists and certainly that of the international community will continue to be at the margins and the threat that the environment will become a more politically-charged element in the Sino-U.S. relationship will only increase.

AT: Chinese Soft Power

China soft power decline inevitable

Johan Lagerkvist, Senior research fellow at Swedish Institute of Int'l Affairs. March 23 2011, “The coming collapse of China’s soft power”, http://johanlagerkvist.org/2011/03/23/the-coming-collapse-of-chinas-soft-power/, accessed 5/15/14

Foreigners know that China’s political system is undemocratic and all sorts of power abuse and human rights atrocities are common. And contrary to some beliefs, these views are common in the developing countries of the global South as well. No soft power program in the world can cloak or positively defend the defects of the Chinese political system. Yet, even if these defects were ameliorated in earnest and rule of law was actually implemented beyond lofty Communist Party rhetoric, suspicion and disbelief would still linger. China’s internal stability/security and survival of the Communist Party will always be more important to China’s leaders than the image it projects for outside consumption. Pouring money into Chinese equivalents to CNN and Al-Jazeera won’t help as long as these two pillars remain bottom-line for all reform initiatives. Moreover, the hardliners in the Chinese media system, especially in the Central Propaganda Department have marginalized the soft liners. This has led to a backlash against an at times visible trend toward more objective information, which is qualitatively different from raw propaganda. * The stability-overrides-everything principle will eventually erode soft power among important elite groups inside China too. Foreign businesses, expats, Chinese scholars, domestic businesses, and young Internet users will complain that the Chinese government’s Internet censorship is going too far. Recently, the filtering of emails, SMS, and blocking of VPN-services used by many companies, foreigners, and Chinese academics to get around the Great Chinese firewall of censorship have become a huge irritant. The zero tolerance of any voices susceptible to political mobilization and organizing slows Internet connections and crucial information sharing between foreign and Chinese markets and people. And this in a period when Chinese social protest is not likely to erupt on a scale like that in North Africa and the Middle East. Imagine the scope and crack-down if social protests and movements would get some serious momentum.

China’s economic growth offsets it’s soft power – they don’t complement each other

Johan Lagerkvist, Senior research fellow at Swedish Institute of Int'l Affairs. March 23 2011, “The coming collapse of China’s soft power”, http://johanlagerkvist.org/2011/03/23/the-coming-collapse-of-chinas-soft-power/, accessed 5/15/14

This post is not arguing that the Chinese state is crumbling, that an economic collapse is imminent, or that China’s rise is over. To the contrary, the Chinese Party-state is very much in the driver’s seat. It is diligently monitoring developments in Chinese economy and society, intent at not overlooking any rocking of the state ship. This, however, comes at great costs to the internal security budget and China’s image abroad. I am purely looking at China’s attractiveness as a world power, model, and shaper of values and goodwill.

No Impact – US/China War

No China war - they'll be restrained

Robert Sutter , Professor of Practice of International Affairs at George Washington University, China-US Focus, March 19, 2014, "Why China Avoids Confronting the U.S. in Asia", http://www.chinausfocus.com/foreign-policy/why-china-avoids-confronting-the-u-s-in-asia-2/, accessed 5/24/14

Forecasts talk of U.S. retreat from domineering China or an inevitable U.S.-China conflict. However, enduring circumstances hold back Chinese leaders from confronting America, the regional leader. Domestic preoccupations Chinese economic growth and one-party rule require stability. And protecting Chinese security and sovereignty remains a top concern. Though China also has regional and global ambitions, domestic concerns get overall priority. President Xi Jinping is preoccupied with uncertain leadership legitimacy, pervasive corruption, widespread mass protests, and unsustainable economic practices. Beijing’s reform agenda requires strong leadership for many years. Under these circumstances, Xi was unusually accommodating in meeting President Obama in California in 2013; he seeks a new kind of major power relationship. Xi also presides over China’s greater assertiveness on territorial issues that involve the United States, but thus far Chinese probes avoid direct confrontation with the superpower. Mutual interdependence Growing economic and other U.S.-China interdependence reinforces constructive relations. Respective “Gulliver strategies” tie down aggressive, assertive, or other negative policy tendencies through webs of interdependence in bilateral and multilateral relationships. China’s insecurity in Asia Nearby Asia is China’s top foreign priority. It contains security and sovereignty issues (e.g. Taiwan) of highest importance. It is the main arena of interaction with the United States. Its economic importance far surpasses the rest of world (China is Africa’s biggest trader but it does more trade with South Korea). Asian stability is essential for China’s economic growth—the lynch pin of Communist rule. Facing formidable American presence and influence and lacking a secure periphery, China almost certainly calculates that seriously confronting the United States poses grave dangers.

AT: Miscalculation

Miscalculations won’t escalate and other powers won’t get drawn in

Robert D. Kaplan, Chief Geopolitical Analyst for Stratfor, a private intelligence firm. He is a non-resident senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security, Foreign Policy, March 17, 2014, " The Guns of August in the East China Sea", http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2014/03/17/ the_guns_of_august_in_the_east_china_sea_world_war_one, accessed 5/12/14

But before one buys the 1914 analogy, there are other matters to consider. While 1914 Europe was a landscape, with large armies facing one another inside a claustrophobic terrain with few natural barriers, East Asia is a seascape, with vast maritime distances separating national capitals. The sea impedes aggression to a degree that land does not. Naval forces can cross water and storm beachheads, though with great difficulty, but moving inland and occupying hostile populations is nearly impossible. The Taiwan Strait is roughly four times the width of the English Channel, a geography that continues to help preserve Taiwan's de facto independence from China. Even the fastest warships travel slowly, giving diplomats time to do their work. Incidents in the air are more likely, although Asian countries have erected strict protocols and prefer to posture verbally so as to avoid actual combat. (That said, the new Chinese Air Defense Identification Zone is a particularly provocative protocol.) Since any such incidents would likely occur over open water there will be few casualties, reducing the prospect that a single incident will lead to war. And because of the speed, accuracy, and destructiveness of postmodern weaponry, any war that does break out will probably be short -- albeit with serious economic consequences. Something equivalent to four years of trench warfare is almost impossible to imagine. And remember that it was World War I's very grinding length that made it a history-transforming and culture-transforming event: it caused 17 million military and civilian casualties; the disputes in the Pacific Basin are certainly not going to lead to that. World War I also featured different and unwieldy alliance systems. Asia is simpler: almost everyone fears China and depends -- militarily at least -- on the United States. This is not the Cold War where few Americans could be found in the East Bloc, a region with which we did almost no trade. Millions of Americans and Chinese have visited each other's countries, tens of thousands of American businessmen have passed through Chinese cities, and Chinese party elites send their children to U.S. universities. U.S. officials know they must steer between the two extremes of allowing China's Finlandization of its Asian neighbors and allowing nationalistic governments in Vietnam, the Philippines, and Japan to lure the United States into a conflict with China. Nationalistic as these democracies may be, the best way to curb their excesses and make them less nervous is to give them the assurance of a U.S. security umbrella, born of credible air and sea power. A strong U.S.-China relationship can keep the peace in Asia. (South Korea also fears Japan, but the United States is successfully managing that tension.) Unlike empires mired in decrepitude that characterized 1914 Europe, East Asia features robust democracies in South Korea and Japan, and strengthening democracies in Malaysia and the Philippines. An informal alliance of democracies -- that should also include a reformist, de facto ally like Vietnam -- is the best and most stable counter to Chinese militarism. Some of these democracies are fraught, and fascist-cum-communist North Korea could implode, but this is not a world coming apart. Limited eruptions do not equal a global cataclysm.

No Impact – Asian Conflict

Interdependence, institutions, and diplomacy prevent Asia war

Nick Bisley, Professor, is Executive Director of La Trobe Asia at La Trobe University, The Conversation, March 10, 2014, "It’s not 1914 all over again: Asia is preparing to avoid war", http://theconversation.com/its-not-1914-all-over-again-asia-is-preparing-to-avoid-war-22875, accessed 5/12/14

But there are very good reasons, notwithstanding these issues, why Asia is not about to tumble into a great power war. China is America’s second most important trading partner. Conversely, the US is by far the most important country with which China trades. Trade and investment’s “golden straitjacket” is a basic reason to be optimistic. Why should this be seen as being more effective than the high levels of interdependence between Britain and Germany before World War One? Because Beijing and Washington are not content to rely on markets alone to keep the peace. They are acutely aware of how much they have at stake. Diplomatic infrastructure for peace The two powers have established a wide range of institutional links to manage their relations. These are designed to improve the level and quality of their communication, to lower the risks of misunderstanding spiralling out of control and to manage the trajectory of their relationship. Every year, around 1000 officials from all ministries led by the top political figures in each country meet under the auspices of the Strategic and Economic Dialogue. The dialogue has demonstrably improved US-China relations across the policy spectrum, leading to collaboration in a wide range of areas. These range from disaster relief to humanitarian aid exercises, from joint training of Afghan diplomats to marine conservation efforts, in which Chinese law enforcement officials are hosted on US Coast Guard vessels to enforce maritime legal regimes. Unlike the near total absence of diplomatic engagement by Germany and Britain in the lead-up to 1914, today’s two would-be combatants have a deep level of interaction and practical co-operation. Just as the extensive array of common interests has led Beijing and Washington to do a lot of bilateral work, Asian states have been busy the past 15 years. These nations have created a broad range of multilateral institutions and mechanisms intended to improve trust, generate a sense of common cause and promote regional prosperity. Some organisations, like the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), have a high profile with its annual leaders’ meeting involving, as it often does, the common embarrassment of heads of government dressing up in national garb. Others like the ASEAN Regional Forum and the ASEAN Defence Ministers’ Meeting Plus Process are less in the public eye. But there are more than 15 separate multilateral bodies that have a focus on regional security concerns. All these organisations are trying to build what might be described as an infrastructure for peace in the region. While these mechanisms are not flawless, and many have rightly been criticised for being long on dialogue and short on action, they have been crucial in managing specific crises and allowing countries to clearly state their commitments and priorities. Again, this is in stark contrast to the secret diplomatic dealings in the lead-up to 1914.

Impact Turn- Chinese Ocean Domination Kills Env

Chinese ocean domination depletes fish stocks and kill species

Thanhnien News, May 31, 2013, “China's power play will up East Sea ante: analysts “,

http://thanhniennews.com/special-report/chinas-power-play-will-up-east-sea-ante-analysts-2335.html, accessed 5/26/14

Fish stocks depleted Analysts say seafood resources in disputed waters are also valuable. So, while there may not be oil and gas, there is still a lot of fish. But even this comes with a caveat. Since May 16, China has put in force its unilateral two-month-and-a-half fishing ban on waters around the Paracels, which it has occupied illegally by force since 1974 after a brief but bloody naval battle with the forces of the then US-backed Republic of Vietnam. China said the ban, which has been in place since the late 1990s, was aimed at preserving the fish stock during the breeding season but its fishermen have been blamed for overfishing and marine pollution that has caused the depletion of fish stock in the East Sea. To make matters worse, early this month, China sent one of its largest fishing fleets on record to the disputed Spratlys, a move analysts say that will inevitably deplete fish stocks further, affecting Southeast Asian littoral states that rely heavily on the same fisheries. "China's action"¦ is self-destructive," Thayer said. "Chinese fishermen are largely unregulated and they often catch endangered species protected by international convention."

Impact is extinction

Robin Kundis Craig, Associate Professor of Law, Indiana University School of Law, 2003

34 McGeorge L. Rev. 155, accessed 5/23/14

The world's oceans contain many resources and provide many services that humans consider valuable. "Occupy[ing] more than [seventy percent] of the earth's surface and [ninety-five percent] of the biosphere," n17 oceans provide food; marketable goods such as shells, aquarium fish, and pharmaceuticals; life support processes, including carbon sequestration, nutrient cycling, and weather mechanics; and quality of life, both aesthetic and economic, for millions of people worldwide. n18 Indeed, it is difficult to overstate the importance of the ocean to humanity's well-being: "The ocean is the cradle of life on our planet, and it remains the axis of existence, the locus of planetary biodiversity, and the engine of the chemical and hydrological cycles that create and maintain our atmosphere and climate." n19 Ocean and coastal ecosystem services have been calculated to be worth over twenty billion dollars per year, worldwide. n20 In addition, many people assign heritage and existence value to the ocean and its creatures, viewing the world's seas as a common legacy to be passed on relatively intact to future generations. n21 Traditionally, land-bound humans have regarded the ocean as an inexhaustible resource and have pursued consumptive and extractive uses of the seas, such as fishing, with little thought of conservation. n22 In the last two or three centuries, however, humanity has overstressed the world's oceans, proving that the ocean's productivity is limited. n23 Degradation of the marine environment is becoming increasingly obvious: Scientists have mounting evidence of rapidly accelerating declines in once-abundant populations of cod, haddock, flounder, and scores of other fish species, as well as mollusks, crustaceans, birds, and plants. They are alarmed at the rapid rate of destruction of coral reefs, estuaries, and wetlands and the sinister expansion of vast "dead zones" of water where life has been choked away. More and more, the harm to marine biodiversity can be traced not to natural events but to inadequate policies. As a result, "human activities now pose serious threats to the oceans' biodiversity and their capacity to support productive fisheries, recreation, water purification[,] and other services we take for granted."

Impact Turn- Chinese Ocean Domination Kills Env

China consumes all fish stocks it controls and pollutes ecosystems- threatens biodiversity

John Copeland Nagle, prof at Notre Dame Law School, Spring 2009, “The Effectiveness of Biodiversity Law,”, 24 J. Land Use & Envtl. Law 203, accessed 5/26/14

China's fisheries suffered $130 million in losses from 941 water pollution incidents in 2004 that affected 211,000 hectacres of freshwater ecosystems. A November 2005 factory explosion that polluted the Songhua River required the temporary termination of water supplies in the northwestern city of Harbin and had untold consequences for the freshwater ecosystem. The quantity of water is often a problem for biodiversity as well. Efforts to move freshwater to places where it is scarce, such as Beijing, include such controversial projects as the Three Gorges Dam in central China, which many environmentalists believe will destroy many of the nearby ecosystems. Further south, the planned damming of the Mekong River could destroy a lot.79 Biodiversity is also threatened by the direct exploitation of many species. “Plants are cut for fuel, building materials, food and medicine. Birds, mammals, reptiles, fish and many invertebrates are hunted and fished virtually everywhere they are available.”80 Commercial trade in wildlife is another serious threat. China is the world's largest exporter and a leading user of endangered species. Enforcement becomes even more difficult because of the huge demand for products derived from endangered species.

China is key

Kevin Pyne 2013, Conserving China's Biodiversity, EARTH COMMON JOURNAL, VOL. 3 NO. 1,

http://www.studentpulse.com/articles/852/conserving-chinas-biodiversity accessed 5/26/14

Loss of biodiversity is becoming an increasing global concern. What is biodiversity and why is it important? It can be described as the variety of living organisms on earth, the range of species, the genetic variability within species and the different characteristics taken on by ecosystems (McBeath & McBeath 2006, p.293). Some estimates state that currently over one thousand species are lost per year, compared to only about four per year before the arrival of humans (McBeath & McBeath, 2006, p. 293). In China, there are a large variety of species, including a considerable amount of endemic species. An endemic species is one that is restricted to a certain region (Lawrence, 2008, p. 201). It is one of the world’s most diverse countries with respect to biodiversity, housing more than ten percent of the world’s known species — which gives it a great range of physical characteristics—, and the fact that it is an ancient center for evolution (McBeath & McBeath, 2006, p. 316). Of these, topographical isolation seems to have played the largest part (Xu et al., 2009, p. 522). We find high instances of both paleoendemism, the survival of ancient organisms due to being situated in high elevations, and neoendemism, the speciation of new organisms due to the wide variety of ecological niches provided to them with few competitors (Xu et al., 2009, p.522). Due to the high levels of endemic species found in China, preserving its forests and natural ecosystems should be a priority not only for the people of China, but for the entire globe.

The impact is extinction- every species lost brings us closer.

David Diner, JD Ohio State, Winter 1994, Military Law Review, accessed 5/24/14

Biologically diverse ecosystems are characterized by a large number of specialist species, filling narrow ecological niches. These ecosystems inherently are more stable than less diverse systems. " The more complex the ecosystem, the more successfully it can resist stress... [l]ike a net, in which each knot is connected to others by several strands, such a fabric can resist collapse better than a simple, unbranched circle of threads -- which is cut anywhere breaks down as a whole." By causing widespread extinctions, humans have artificially simplified many ecosystems. As biologic simplicity increases, so does the risk of ecosystem failure. The spreading Sahara Desert in Africa, and the dustbowl conditions of the 1930s in the United States are relatively mild examples of what might be expected if this trend continues. Theoretically, each new animal or plant extinction, with all its dimly perceived and intertwined affects, could cause total ecosystem collapse and human extinction. Each new extinction increases the risk of disaster. Like a mechanic removing, one by one, the rivets from an aircraft's wing, mankind may be edging closer to the abyss.