West Coast Publishing Ocean 2014 affirmative page

Fishing Industry DA Aff Responses

Uniqueness Answers – Fishing industry not strong now

The NOAA reports do not take into account local divergence which depends on different fish

Kyle Stucker, Staff Writer, May 04, 2014, “U.S. fisheries are in recovery,” Seacoast Online, http://www.seacoastonline.com/articles/ 20140504-NEWS-405040352, Accessed 5/4/2014

Despite the findings, locals aren't convinced that the much-maligned industry or fishermen in the Northeast are recovering. "I don't believe them," said New Hampshire Commercial Fishermen's Association President Erik Anderson. Anderson said local reports still show New Hampshire groundfish revenues are down by about 41 percent, which is part of the reason why he doesn't believe the hardships of the Seacoast and other struggling areas are a focus of the mainly national-level NOAA reports. "It makes no sense for the experiences of this community here, which focuses on groundfish, that their revenues have increased," Anderson said. "I think that's what bothers me with the way the report's been constructed. It's deceptive. It's not reflective of what this community is experiencing. Far from it. We're positive that the revenues are down."

Uniqueness Answers – Economy is Weak Now

Claims of economic rebound are misleading. The economy is essentially stuck on multiple levels

Jeffry Bartash, Analyst for MarketWatch, May 25, 2014, “Consumers, businesses still sitting on fence,” http://www.marketwatch.com/story/consumers-businesses-still-sitting-on-fence-2014-05-25, Accessed 5/264/2014

Faster consumer spending and business investment are widely expected to pump up the U.S. economy in the second half of 2014, but there’s just one problem. There’s little evidence that households and companies will follow the script. To be sure, the economy is certain to show much stronger growth in the second quarter — what economists call catchup — after a contraction in the first three months of the year triggered by harsh weather. Companies are now hiring workers at a quicker pace and that’s injecting more money into the economy. Yet the incomes of consumers and their level of spending remain soft by historical standards, especially this late into a recovery. And business are investing more slowly than they did in the past. If those trends continue, the burst of growth expected in the spring might not repeat itself in the summer and beyond. “It doesn’t mean you don’t grow. It just means you grow slowly,” said Steve Blitz, chief economist of ITG Investment Research. “It’s like the economy is stuck behind a slow truck and can’t get around it.”

The economy is stalled at best, with bonds slipping, nervous investors, housing slump, and an untrusting public

CBS News, Staff Writer, May 16, 2014, “U.S. economy firms, but investors remain wary,” http://www.cbsnews.com/news/u-s-economy-firms-but-investors-remain-wary/, Accessed 5/26/2014

Many experts had expected a recovery that finally felt like one this year. More companies would be hiring, consumers would spend more, and businesses that had slashed expenses to generate profits would now earn them by selling more. Investors would unload safe government bonds, forcing their prices down and their yields, which move in the opposite direction, up. But the year is unfolding somewhat off script. The Russell 2000, an index of small-company stocks that are often good bets in an accelerating economy, is now in "correction" territory, Wall Street parlance for a drop of 10 percent from a high. And instead of selling government bonds, investors have bought so much, it has pushed down the yield on U.S. Treasury notes maturing in 10 years to 2.51 percent, half a percentage point lower in just five months. That is a big move for bonds. There's plenty of reason for caution - a stalled housing recovery, for instance, disappointing first-quarter economic growth in the U.S. and Europe, a possible civil war in Ukraine and a cooling Chinese economy. The flood of money into U.S. government bonds may reflect frustration as much as fear. Investors seeking income may be turning to the U.S. because they're unhappy with the paltry payouts on bonds of other rich countries, such as those of Japan and Germany, where yields are even lower. But something not as easy to pinpoint, more ephemeral, may also be prompting investors to play it safer: Many Americans, still haunted by the financial crisis, don't trust the recovery.

Link Answers - Aquaculture

Aquaculture development gives fishers a chance to diversify their income

NOAA Fisheries, Staff Writer, 2014, “Marine Aquaculture: A Promising Future,” http://www.nmfs.noaa.gov/aquaculture/ homepage_stories/11_07_13integrated_aquaculture_video.html, Accessed 5/20/2014

Aquaculture supplies half the seafood eaten in the U.S. and abroad. Although we continue to rebuild our domestic fisheries stocks, most of the seafood needed for a growing planet will come from aquaculture. This creates an opportunity for commercial fishermen, who are beginning to look to aquaculture as a complement to their fishing activities. Just like diversifying an economic portfolio, complementing fishing with aquaculture broadens income sources and mitigates risk. Environmentally sustainable aquaculture is good business and fishermen are taking notice.

Maine proves fishers can use aquaculture to diversify income

Maine Sea Grant, Staff Writer, 2014, “Aquaculture in Shared Waters,” http://www.seagrant.umaine.edu/aquaculture-in-shared-waters, Accessed 5/20/2014

Income diversity for commercial fishermen in Maine is an important issue, given their reliance principally on one stock: the American Lobster.  Access to permits, and allocations of resources like scallops, groundfish, urchins or shrimp are scarce, and the ability for an individual fisherman to move from one fishery to another during the course of a year has been severely limited over recent decades.  At the same time, the demand for shellfish grown in Maine has been strong and steady, and consequently several Maine fishermen have become involved in aquaculture. The convergence of capture and culture for seafood production is potentially a very powerful mechanism to harness the expertise of Maine’s fishermen, to tap into the potential of the marketplace, and to produce the high-quality seafood that Maine is known for. 

Commercial fishers work in tandem with aquaculture development

NOAA Fisheries, Staff Writer, June 18-20, 2013, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), “Aquaculture Complements Fishing Communities,” Accessed 5/20/2014

Although some commercial fishermen may consider aquaculture to be competition for their fisheries, the two industries are complementary contributors to the “seafood economy” and working waterfronts. Traditional commercial fishermen can use their skills and equipment to generate another source of income. During periods of low catch limits, aquaculture can help to offset contraction in the commercial fishing sector. Many fishing families in New England and along the Atlantic are already engaged in aquaculture, either full-time or to supplement their traditional fishing income. Watermen from Maine to Florida are farming oysters, mussels, and clams; others are experimenting with seaweed and fish farming. The drivers for growth in aquaculture include the growing demand for local seafood, opportunities for training by Sea Grant and community colleges, improved state and federal permit coordination, and existing skills, equipment and infrastructure. Aquaculture is just another link in the chain of technologies used to produce seafood. Hatchery fish often are raised and released for commercial and recreational catch (e.g., salmon and trout), and much of fisheries research supports both wild harvest and aquaculture. Commercial fishermen and aquaculturists use the docks, boats, and processing plants that support working waterfronts. Both provide commerce throughout the seafood supply chain in related industries such as equipment, supplies, feeds, processing, wholesaling, retailing, and food services.

Link Answers - Marine Renewables

Alternate methods resolve fisher displacement. Structures for renewables just prevent trawling methods

Martin Attrill, Professor and Director of Plymouth Marine Institute, Plymouth University Et al., June 19, 2013, “Marine Renewables,

Biodiversity and Fisheries,” Plymouth Marine Institute at Plymouth University, http://www.foe.co.uk/sites/default/files/downloads/marine_ renewables_biodiver.pdf, Accessed 4/28/2014

Another impact of introducing extensive new hard structures across parts of the seabed is to reduce the level of current destructive fishing activity within the area, particularly restricting the use of towed fishing gear. Although this may have socio-economic impacts, particularly if coupled with displacement of fishermen from Marine Protected Areas, this may be offset through the use of static gear and increases in populations of commercial fish and shellfish. In addition, there is also much scope for looking at collocating aquaculture, algal biomass production etc. within a wind farm to maximise use of the marine space.

Link Answers – Marine Reserves/MPAs/No-Take zones

Only 1% of all MPAs are closed to fishing

Svati Kirsten Narula, Staff Writer, April 25, 2014, “A Blueprint for Protecting the World's Oceans,” The Atlantic, Accessed 5/23/2014, http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2014/04/a-blueprint-for-protecting-the-worlds-oceans/284598/

Now, thanks to the rise of marine protected areas (MPAs), the global ocean is becoming increasingly partitioned. The term is a catchall for sites like ocean sanctuaries, marine parks, and no-fishing zones—scattered havens where marine life is supposed to thrive, free of human interference (or, at least, subject tolimited human interference). The world's 5,000-plus MPAs include national treasures like the Galápagos and the Great Barrier Reef, but they also include small "fishery-management zones" that are undistinguished except for fine-print prohibitions on certain types of fishing gear. Even the Great Barrier Reef is open to extractive activities like trawl fishing and deep-sea dredging. Only 2 percent of the ocean is currently covered by some sort of MPA. (In contrast, 12 percent of the world's land is protected in national-park systems and wildlife preserves.) And only half of that 2 percent—a mere 1 percent of the ocean—is classified as "no-take," or completely closed to fishing and other extractive activity.

No-Take Reserves benefits fishers and boosts biodiversity

Hanneke Van Lavieren, United Nations University Institute for Water, February 5, 2012, “Can No-take Fishery Reserves Help Protect Our Oceans?,” DEVELOPMENT & SOCIETY : Biodiversity, Ecosystems, Fisheries, Food Security, Governance, Oceans, Accessed 5/23/2014, http://ourworld.unu.edu/en/can-no-take-fisheries-help-protect-our-oceans

One solution to improve the fishery management role of MPAs may be found in the No-Take Fishery Reserve (NTR), a type of MPA within which extractive fishing activities are regulated (or not permitted) and other activities, such as pollution, construction, research, boating and diving are also frequently regulated. Closing areas to fishing has been widely practiced in fisheries management in the past to protect critical habitats, restore depleted species, and protect vulnerable stocks. However, closing areas permanently to all types of fishing is a more recent approach. NTRs can benefit both local biodiversity and local fisheries, i.e., target species (adults, juveniles, and larvae) are expected to increase in abundance and biomass inside an NTR and eventually spill out of the reserve into unprotected areas. This “spillover” can then be harvested by fishermen who can gain a sustainable livelihood as a result of NTRs.

Link Answers – Marine Reserves/MPAs/No-Take zones

Marine reserves help commercial fishers by increasing fish stocks

Susan Lawlor, Head of Department, Department of Environmental Management & Ecology at La Trobe University, November 16, 2012, “Good news for fishing industry: marine reserves make more fish,” The Conversation, http://theconversation.com/good-news-for-fishing-industry-marine-reserves-make-more-fish-10797, Accessed 5/20/2014

Recreational and commercial fishing groups have been vocal opponents of the marine parks, despite the promise of $100 million worth of compensation for the commercial fishery and the relatively small number of areas where recreational fishing will be banned. Certainly some fishers will be negatively impacted, and I hope they get a fair price for the loss of business, but in the long term most of them are likely to benefit. There is strong evidence that setting aside sanctuaries increases the numbers of fish. Coral trout, in particular, have benefited from no take zones in the Great Barrier Reef, and because fish do not stay within the sanctuary, fish numbers increase in adjacent areas. A recent study showed that only 28% of a reef can produce 50% of the larval recruitment. This is because fish in sanctuaries are not only more abundant, they are able to grow to a larger size, producing more offspring per individual. In other words, marine reserves are effective in increasing fish stocks.

No-take reserves directly benefits recreational and commercial fishers

Emily Tripp, Writer for Marine Life, Policy & Ocean Law, February 6, 2013, “No-Take” Reserves Benefit Fish and Fishers, Marine Science Today, http://marinesciencetoday.com/2013/02/06/no-take-reserves-benefit-fish-and-fishers/

There has always been controversy surrounding “no-take” reserves, with some conservationists saying it’s the only way to protect valued areas of the ocean and some fishers saying that it’s simply unnecessary. Now, a new report from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) says that both recreational and commercial anglers are benefiting from “no-take” areas in the Tortugas Ecological Reserve, a 151 square nautical mile area within the Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary.

90% if MPAs are open to fishing

Hanneke Van Lavieren, United Nations University Institute for Water, February 5, 2012, “Can No-take Fishery Reserves Help Protect Our Oceans?,” DEVELOPMENT & SOCIETY : Biodiversity, Ecosystems, Fisheries, Food Security, Governance, Oceans, Accessed 5/23/2014, http://ourworld.unu.edu/en/can-no-take-fisheries-help-protect-our-oceans

Yet, although more than 5,000 MPAs have been established globally (according to the World Database on MPAs), only a mere 1.2% of the world’s ocean area is protected — compare this to 17% of land area being protected. This is despite commitments made by the international community at the 2002 World Summit on Sustainable Development and the Convention for Biological Diversity for the preservation of at least 10% of each of the world’s marine and coastal ecological regions through MPAs by 2012.

The majority of MPAs are inadequately managed and almost all are open to tourism, recreational activities and 90% are open to fishing. In addition, most are located within areas of national jurisdiction, meaning that very little of the open ocean or “high seas” are protected, according to a 2010 study by Caitlyn Toropova et al.

Link Answers – Marine Reserves/MPAs/No-Take zones

Studies prove that recovery inside marine reserves spills over to help fishing

Karen K. Marvin, communications at the Center for Ocean Solutions, July 19, 2012, “Marine reserves aid ecosystem recovery after environmental disasters, Stanford study finds,” Stanford Report, http://news.stanford.edu/news/2012/july/helping-abalone-recover-071912.html, Accessed 5/20/2014

For years, scientists, fishers and government regulators could only speculate that marine reserves, pockets of ocean that are off limits to fishing, could help entire ecosystems bounce back after an environmental disaster. But scientific evidence has emerged that supports what was once just an educated guess. The new study was published July 18 in PLoS ONE. The study revealed that after a mass mortality of marine life in the waters off Baja California, Mexico, egg production of pink abalones in the marine reserves increased 40 percent while being cut in half in fished areas. Further, the study found that a significant amount of larvae spilled over into unprotected areas open to fishing, which helped them rebound more quickly.

The best research proves marine reserves and commercial fishing can coexist

Emily Tripp, Writer for Marine Life, Policy & Ocean Law, February 6, 2013, “No-Take” Reserves Benefit Fish and Fishers, Marine Science Today, http://marinesciencetoday.com/2013/02/06/no-take-reserves-benefit-fish-and-fishers/

The report is the first to evaluate how the “no-take” area is affecting the living marine resources of the region as well the people who depend on those marine resources. To assess the economic effects of the closure, NOAA’s Office of National Marine Sanctuaries partnered with the University of Massachusetts to analyze catch landings and revenue from commercial fishers. They also surveyed local recreational fishing guides before and for five years after the closure. Since the reserve was designated in 2001, they found that: The presence and abundance of previously overfished species, including black and red grouper, yellowtail and mutton snapper, has increased both inside the Reserve and in the surrounding regionCommercial catches of reef fish increased in the region Commercial and recreational fishers experienced no financial losses. “This research shows that marine reserves and economically viable fishing industries can coexist,” said Sean Morton, sanctuary superintendent. “The health of our economy is tied to the health of our oceans. They are not mutually exclusive.”

Link Answers – Offshore Wind

Marine wind power benefits fishers by increasing the abundance of commercial fish stocks

Manuela Truebano, Ph.D., Lecturer in Marine Biology at the Plymouth Marine Institute, Plymouth University, et al., June 19, 2013, “Marine Renewables, Biodiversity and Fisheries,” Plymouth Marine Institute at Plymouth University, http://www.foe.co.uk/sites/ default/files/downloads/marine_ renewables_biodiver.pdf, Accessed 5/12/2014

Increase in abundance of commercial species in marine protected areas with fishing restrictions or full no take zones has been shown to benefit catches of fishermen in the region. Studies of fisheries related effects exist for the largest and smallest of these reserves, the 340km2 Start Point ‘Inshore potting agreement’ and the 17000km2 Georges bank area closure. Beneficial results were identifiable at both sites with either identifiable larger size of individual fish from within the reserve compared to outside, large scale increased abundance within populations or increased catches of commercial fish in adjacent areas. Further examples exist for beneficial lobster catches adjacent to reserves in New Zealand and Florida, USA, seabream catches in South Africa, scallop and yellow tail flounder in the north west Atlantic as well as a variety of Caribbean reef fish in St Lucia. There is significant potential for offshore wind farms to therefore provide economic benefits in addition to conservation benefits if commercial species association with wind farm habitat continues. It is important, however, that increases in species occurrence within wind farms provide a spillover effect, as in the regional stock is enhanced and not merely aggregate fish that are later caught in the surrounding area.

Offshore wind farms rebuild commercial fish stocks

Manuela Truebano, Ph.D., Lecturer in Marine Biology at the Plymouth Marine Institute, Plymouth University, et al., June 19, 2013, “Marine Renewables, Biodiversity and Fisheries,” Plymouth Marine Institute at Plymouth University, http://www.foe.co.uk/sites/ default/files/downloads/marine_ renewables_biodiver.pdf, Accessed 5/12/2014

Offshore wind farms, especially at the scale of planned developments of many hundreds of turbines, will therefore limit fishing activity. Therefore changes in hydrodynamic and sedimentation regime which could be considered detrimental will be accompanied by a reduction in fisheries in fisheries impacts. The additional availability of hard surfaces and especially complex stone or boulder habitat though scour protection has also been shown to aid specific commercial crustaceans and smaller non-commercial reef associated fish. Recently available environmental monitoring reports from Horns Rev wind farm in Denmark, Egmond and Zee wind farm in the Netherlands and Lillgrund wind farm in Sweden provide evidence of benefits extending to larger commercial fish species associating with turbines and scour protection.

Link Answers – Offshore Wind

Offshore wind power increases commercial fish stocks

Manuela Truebano, Ph.D., Lecturer in Marine Biology at the Plymouth Marine Institute, Plymouth University, et al., June 19, 2013, “Marine Renewables, Biodiversity and Fisheries,” Plymouth Marine Institute at Plymouth University, http://www.foe.co.uk/sites/ default/files/downloads/marine_ renewables_biodiver.pdf, Accessed 5/12/2014

These emerging patterns are encouraging as they begin to show benefits to fish stocks similar to those in MPAs. A review by Halpern that incorporated all before and after studies or inside outside comparisons for full no take zones concluded that evidence was considerable: regardless of their size, marine reserves led to increases in density, biomass, individual size and diversity in all functional groups. The major difference is that these examples are of existing reserves that have been specifically designed for conservation of habitat, species or fisheries augmentation. Even when assessing specifically designed marine reserves there is debate over their effectiveness, especially as fisheries management tools; there is a limited evidence base due to low numbers of effectively managed reserves globally and the lack of rigorously designed before and after studies. The emerging benefits to abundance of species utilising habitat within wind farms therefore require specific attention to fully understand how geographic location, existing habitats and different environmental conditions influence species responses.

Link Answers – Regulations are Good

Management and regulations are good. They are responsible for billions in revenue and growth

Eileen Sobeck, NOAA’s Assistant Administrator for Fisheries, April 29, 2014, “Fishing’s Impacts Ripple across the Broader Economy,” U.S. Dept. of Commerce http://www.commerce.gov/blog/2014/04/29/fishing%E2%80%99s-impacts-ripple-across-broader-economy, Accessed 5/19/2014

Between 2011 and 2012 alone, U.S. commercial and recreational saltwater fishing generated more than $199 billion in sales impacts, contributed $89 billion to gross domestic product, and supported 1.7 million jobs. Breaking down the numbers a little more, the value chain of the commercial fishing industry—harvesters, processors, dealers, wholesalers, and retailers—generated $141 billion in sales, $39 billion in income and supported 1.3 million jobs in 2012. The recreational fishing sector generated $58 billion in sales, $19 billion in income, and supported 381,000 jobs in 2012. Surprised? You shouldn’t be. The United States is a world leader in responsibly managed fisheries, and there’s no doubt that our approach to management is directly tied to the positive economic impacts across the broader U.S. economy in the last few years as we see in the Fisheries Economics of the U.S. 2012 report.

Management and regulation creates sustainable fishing. This is the most profitable avenue for fishers

Andreas Merkl, President and CEO of Ocean Conservancy, May 22, 2013, “The Fish We Need to Feed 9 Billion People,” Blue Ocean Conservancy, http://blog.oceanconservancy.org/2013/05/22/the-fish-we-need-to-feed-9-billion-people/, Accessed 5/22/2014

Smart fisheries management is a great place to start a conversation about putting the ocean at the center of the world’s biggest challenges.  This is because the most profitable type of fishing is sustainable fishing – better management helps fishermen and the ocean at the same time.

Sustainable fishing means keeping enough fish in the water to reproduce and ensure a bountiful catch in the future. It’s a balancing act, but sustainable fisheries are in everyone’s best interest – from fishermen to distributors to gear manufacturers to retailers to consumers. If you’re a fisherman and you want to pass on your traditions to the next generation, or you want to be able to make good money 10 years from now, the most profitable way to fish is sustainably.

Link Answers – Regulations are Good

Current regulations are working. Management has substantially reduced overfishing and increased fish stocks

Eileen Sobeck, Assistant Administrator for NOAA Fisheries, 2014, Status of Stocks 2013: Annual Report to Congress on the Status of U.S. Fisheries, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, http://www.nmfs.noaa.gov/sfa/fisheries_eco/status_of_fisheries/archive/ 2013/status_of_stocks_2013_web.pdf, Accessed 5/7/2014

NOAA Fisheries is pleased to present the 2013 Report on the Status of U.S. Fisheries, pursuant to the Magnuson-Stevens Fishery Conservation and Management Act (MSA). This year’s report highlights the continued progress that, collectively, NOAA Fisheries, the Regional Fishery Management Councils, and our stakeholders have made to end overfishing and fully rebuild our nation’s fish stocks. In 2013, seven stocks came off the overfishing list and four stocks are no longer listed as overfished. Additionally, recent assessments show two stocks have rebuilt—bringing the total number of stocks rebuilt since 2000 to 34. These results demonstrate the strength of the U.S. science based management model under the MSA and the importance of ending overfishing as the key to addressing past overfishing problems. While new stocks have been added to both the overfishing and overfished lists this year, the status of many of these stocks was previously unknown. Managers now have the status information they need to develop plans to end overfishing and rebuild these stocks.

Impact Answers – No internal link

California proves their economy impact is just false

Tony Barboza, Staff Writer, January 16, 2014, “Restrictions on fishing in marine sanctuaries appear to be working,” L.A. Times, http://www.latimes.com/science/la-me-marine-sanctuary-20140127-story.html, Accessed 5/20/2014

Two years after the creation of marine sanctuaries in more than 350 square miles of Southern California coastal waters, state wildlife officials and environmental groups say the restrictions on fishing are largely being obeyed. "All of the dire predictions of the collapse of the commercial and sport-fishing industries just aren't happening," said California Fish and Game Commission President Michael Sutton. "In general, people are respecting the boundaries." The reserves, known as Marine Protected Areas, bar or limit fishing in 50 zones spanning 15% of state waters from Santa Barbara County to the Mexican border. They took effect in the state's busiest region in 2012, with some favored fishing spots remaining open and others placed almost entirely off-limits to promote marine life conservation.

Impact Answers – Economic collapse does not lead to war

Economic collapse does not cause war

Samuel Bazzi, Department of Economics at University of California San Diego and Christopher Blattman, assistant professor of political science and economics at Yale University, November 2011, “Economic Shocks and Conflict: The (Absence of?) Evidence from Commodity Prices,” http://www.cgdev.org/publication/economic-shocks-and-conflict-absence-evidence-commodity-prices-working-paper-274, Accessed 5/20/2014

The state is not a prize?—Warlord politics and the state prize logic lie at the center of the most influential models of conflict, state development, and political transitions in economics and political science. Yet we see no evidence for this idea in economic shocks, even when looking at the friendliest cases: fragile and unconstrained states dominated by extractive commodity revenues. Indeed, we see the opposite correlation: if anything, higher rents from commodity prices weakly 22 lower the risk and length of conflict.

Perhaps shocks are the wrong test. Stocks of resources could matter more than price shocks (especially if shocks are transitory). But combined with emerging evidence that war onset is no more likely even with rapid increases in known oil reserves (Humphreys 2005; Cotet and Tsui 2010) we regard the state prize logic of war with skepticism. Our main political economy models may need a new engine. Naturally, an absence of evidence cannot be taken for evidence of absence. Many of our conflict onset and ending results include sizeable positive and negative effects. Even so, commodity price shocks are highly influential in income and should provide a rich source of identifiable variation in instability. It is difficult to find a better-measured, more abundant, and plausibly exogenous independent variable than price volatility. Moreover, other time-varying variables, like rainfall and foreign aid, exhibit robust correlations with conflict in spite of suffering similar empirical drawbacks and generally smaller sample sizes. Thus we take the absence of evidence seriously.
The Fed makes the US economy resilient, 4 signs.

Rick Newman, Staff Writer, March 5, 2013, “Thank the Fed for the 'Resilient' Economy,” US News & World Report, http://www.usnews.com/news/blogs/rick-newman/2013/03/05/thank-the-fed-for-the-resilient-economy, Accessed 5/20/2014

But the economy is, in fact, showing tangible improvement in four key areas, and Fed policies are at least partly responsible. In general, the Fed has used a variety of tactics to push interest rates to abnormally low levels, in order to spur borrowing, force investor money out of bunker-mentality securities like Treasury bonds, and stimulate normal types of economic activity after a panicky recession. There's no modern precedent for what the Fed has done, so nobody really knows how long it's supposed to take for quantitative easing to work. But it is working, finally.

Impact Answers – Economic collapse does not lead to war

Economic decline does not lead to war

Niall Ferguson, Professor of History at Harvard University and a Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University, 2006, “The Next War of the World”, http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2006/09/the_next_war_of_the_world.html, Accessed 5/20/2014

Nor can economic crises explain the bloodshed. What may be the most familiar causal chain in modern historiography links the Great Depression to the rise of fascism and the outbreak of World War II. But that simple story leaves too much out. Nazi Germany started the war in Europe only after its economy had recovered. Not all the countries affected by the Great Depression were taken over by fascist regimes, nor did all such regimes start wars of aggression. In fact, no general relationship between economics and conflict is discernible for the century as a whole. Some wars came after periods of growth, others were the causes rather than the consequences of economic catastrophe, and some severe economic crises were not followed by wars.

Impact Answers – No economic collapse

The economy is resilient and won’t collapse for 10 reasons

Kim Amadeo, President of WorldMoneyWatch.com, M.S., Sloan School of Business, M.I.T. and M.S. Planning, Boston College, May 4, 2014, “10 Reasons Why the U.S. Economy Won't Collapse” http://useconomy.about.com/b/2013/04/04/10-reasons-why-the-u-s-economy-wont-collapse.htm, Accessed 5/20/2014

Frequently, I receive emails from readers and friends asking if the U.S. economy or the U.S. dollar are going to collapse. I don't know why they've suddenly become concerned. Not one of them sent me a similar email the week of September 17, 2008 when the U.S. economy almost DID collapse. Things have gotten slower in 2014, but last year the U.S. economy is poised had one of its best years since 2007. The stock market set new records, housing prices were headed in the right direction, GDP was be in the healthy 2-3% growth zone. Although this year is a little shakier, that's a far cry from a collapse. Maybe all the gloom-and-doomers who make money by selling gold (which is dropping), guns and canned food -- not to mention their own books on how to survive -- are worried because things ARE ACTUALLY OK. Anyway, here's 10 reasons why the U.S. economy, and the dollar, won't collapse: The U.S. debt, though high, won't cause a collapse. Unlike Greece, the U.S. prints its own money. The U.S. could possibly run a much higher debt to GDP ratio than it does now and still not face economic collapse. Obama Added to the Debt to get us out of recession, not send us toward collapse. The U.S. won't Default on Its Debt. China Isn't Selling Its Dollar Holdings. China and Japan won't cause a Dollar Collapse. The Dollar Is Slowly Declining, not collapsing. The dollar won't be replaced as the World's Global Currency. The Fed's Quantitative Easing program can't cause Hyperinflation. There are too many failsafe measures that will prevent a U.S. Economic Collapse.

There’s no risk of economic collapse

Kim Amadeo, President of WorldMoneyWatch.com, M.S., Sloan School of Business, M.I.T. and M.S. Planning, Boston College, May 4, 2014, “10 Reasons Why the U.S. Economy Won't Collapse” http://useconomy.about.com/b/2013/04/04/10-reasons-why-the-u-s-economy-wont-collapse.htm, Accessed 5/20/2014

You may see videos from well-known celebrities such as Robert Kiyosaki, Glenn Beck or David Stockman urging you to prepare for the impending collapse. Before you run out to buy gold or canned goods, do two things : First, read all ten of the articles above, and the links within them. Second, stop worrying. There are far more important things for you to spend your energy on than something that is highly unlikely to happen.

Economic Collapse Inevitable

A major economic downturn is inevitable in 2015 and will rip civilization apart

Martin Armstrong, Armstrong Economics and former chair of Princeton Economics International Ltd., March 31, 2014, “The Age of Civil Unrest,” http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/03/, Accessed 5/21/2014

This is no plain modern event with civil unrest erupting because of an interconnected world. These are grassroots uprisings cross-fertilized perhaps from a world contagion yet they often have similarities – corrupt governments. Turkey, Ukraine, Thailand, Venezuela and Bosnia-Herzegovina are all middle-income democracies with elected leaders besieged by people angry at misgovernment, corruption and economic sclerosis. These days it is no longer just dictators who have something to fear from the crowd. This is the promise of Marxism that centralized planning and false promises are coming home and governments are too corrupt and incompetent to deliver what they have claimed for decades. Communism is dead. The socialistic agendas that have lined the pockets of government and filled the coffers of banks is over. The national debts are on average composed of 70% interest payments not programs to help the poor as marketed. The debts that keep growing with no intent upon paying anyone back are draining the national productivity and turning the people into economic slaves. The standard of living has declined and it now takes two incomes to survive where one use to be just fine. Women won the right to work and lost the right to stay home. The promises that you save for the future have collapsed into dust as interest rates have been driven lower making savings utterly worthless. There is no such thing as saving and living off your fixed income. The elderly are being driven back into the work force and the whole ideas that a generation believed in are vanishing before their eyes. So it is no longer communists and dictators that are the targets. All governments are now the targets and when the economy turns down after 2015, the threat of civilization will be pulled apart by the self-interest of politicians clinging to power to the detriment of the people.

Economists agree: an economic crash will happen by next April

Mac Slavo, Staff Writer, April 11, 2014, “Evidence Points To An Economic Collapse In 2014,” ETF Daily News, Accessed 5/22/2014, http://etfdailynews.com/2014/04/11/evidence-points-to-an-economic-collapse-in-2014/

Earlier this week economic strategist Marc Faber warned that some time in the next 12 months the U.S. stock market will experience a crash worse than the massive drop seen in 1987. He’s not alone. Many contrarian economists seem to agree. And given the state of economic and geo-political affairs they could well be right, much to our detriment. On the domestic front, the much touted economic recovery is in significant danger of being revealed for the illusion that it really is. Nationwide home sales, for example, have dropped off in record numbers in the last few months and a report released this morning indicates that mortgage originations are as bad today as they were just before the Lehman crisis of 2007. Couple that with a jobs market that is at best stagnating and at worst completely falling apart, and you can probably deduce that if there is any economic growth at all taking place it is about to come to a standstill.

Impact Answers – Economic growth is bad

Economic growth is the primary driver of environmental decline

Sean McElwee and Lew Daly, Staff Writer, March 20, 2014, “What if economic growth is no longer possible in the 21st century?,” The Week, http://theweek.com/article/index/258375/what-if-economic-growth-is-no-longer-possible-in-the-21st-century, Accessed 5/21/2014

In an interview, Roemer tells us that these results are optimistic; after all, some economists have argued that growth may not occur at all. In the paper, the three argue that "there is no politically feasible solution to the climate change problem unless" both the U.S. and China "honestly recognize the connection between restricting emissions and curbing growth." In contrast, the Congressional Budget Office's long-range analyses use a growth projection of 2.2 percent on average over the next 75 years. Other economists have come to similar conclusions about the connections between growth and sustainability. Early in 2012, Kenneth Rogoff argued that maximizing growth must be weighed against the negative possibilities of growth, like global warming. Indeed as James Gustave Spethnotes, environmental impacts are the most significant challenges to growth: "Economic activity and its growth are the principal drivers of massive environmental decline."

Overshoot is inevitable. Unrestrained economic growth causes war and inequality and destroys the environment

Ted Trainer, Social Sciences and International Studies, University of New South Wales, 2012, “De-growth: Do you realise what it means?,” Futures, Vol. 44, pp. 590-591.

There is now an overwhelming case that ecological, resource and cohesion problems cannot be solved by or within consumer-capitalist society. This is because, firstly the magnitude of the problems is now too great, and secondly because the problems are being generated by the systems and processes that are built into the foundations of this society. The fundamental cause of the problems including the destruction of the environment, the deprivation and ‘‘underdevelopment’’ of the Third World, resource depletion, conflict and war, and the breakdown of social cohesion, is over-production and overconsumption. Levels of material affluence are far too high to be kept up for long or to be spread to all the world’s people. It is important to grasp the magnitude of the over-shoot.

Rapid economic growth is incompatible with environmental sustainability

Sean McElwee and Lew Daly, Staff Writer, March 20, 2014, “What if economic growth is no longer possible in the 21st century?,” The Week, http://theweek.com/article/index/258375/what-if-economic-growth-is-no-longer-possible-in-the-21st-century, Accessed 5/21/2014

For decades, rapid economic growth has been the norm for developed countries. An educated workforce, a large population boom, major technological advances, and abundant fossil fuels were the key components of growth, generating substantial and broadly distributed increases in standards of living in many countries. We have grown so used to such growth that we inevitably view it as a panacea for a host of economic ills, whether it's a deep recession or income inequality. We now understand, however, that the postwar growth paradigm is not environmentally sustainable. We also know that the shared prosperity it once delivered is itself unraveling. With these combined trends, something has to give in order to maintain living standards.

Impact Answers – Economic growth is bad

Economic growth is not sustainable. Overshoot is inevitable

Ted Trainer, Social Sciences and International Studies, University of New South Wales, 2012, “De-growth: Do you realise what it means?,” Futures, Vol. 44, p. 591.

These kinds of facts and figures make it abundantly clear that rich world material ‘‘living standards’’ are grossly unsustainable, far beyond levels that can be kept up for long or spread to all people. We are not just somewhat beyond sustainable levels of resource consumption, we have already overshot by a factor of 5–10. Many people, especially within green and left circles are familiar with the above facts and figures but seem not to grasp their significance. The magnitude of the overshoot requires enormous reductions that cannot be made within or by consumer-capitalist society. The above figures are to do with to the present situation, but that does not define the problem we face. At least 3% per annum economic growth is demanded and usually achieved in this society. If Australia had 3% p.a. increase in output to 2050 and by then all 10 billion people expected had risen to the material living standards Australians would have, every year the world’s economy would be producing almost 20 times as much as it does today. Yet the present level is grossly unsustainable. The mainstream seems to be completely unaware of the magnitude

Economic growth is not environmentally sustainable

Sean McElwee and Lew Daly, Staff Writer, March 20, 2014, “What if economic growth is no longer possible in the 21st century?,” The Week, http://theweek.com/article/index/258375/what-if-economic-growth-is-no-longer-possible-in-the-21st-century, Accessed 5/21/2014

The conclusions that flow from these observations are stark. The old economic paradigm relied on unsustainable growth, so we must change the paradigm. For decades, our rising standard of living came at a deep cost to our environment and our children's future. There is simply not enough planetary bio-capacity to grow our way out of the messy moral discussions of distribution. The idea that inequality is merely an inefficiency to be corrected with a technocratic fix or perpetual growth is no longer tenable.