West Coast Publishing Ocean 2014 affirmative page

US-China Yes Conflict

Conflict Now - Naval

Increased deployment by both sides proves US/China naval conflict now

Naoya Yoshino and Gaku Shimada, Staff Writers, March 7, 2014, Nikkei Asian Review, “US, China ready to each assert power in Pacific”, http://asia.nikkei.com/Politics-Economy/International-Relations/US-China-ready-to-each-assert-power-in-Pacific, accessed 5/1/14

The United States and China are locked in an increasingly fierce bid for military influence in the Pacific amid lingering tensions in the East China and South China seas. Updating its global strategy, the U.S. Defense Department announced the Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) on Tuesday, which calls for deploying more naval vessels to the Pacific. On Wednesday, the Chinese government unveiled a record defense budget for 2014. The country is steadily building up its military strength to counter the U.S. military's "pivot" to Asia and to forge a relationship of equals with the U.S.

Chinese sphere of influence expansion provoking naval conflict with the US

Denny Roy, Senior Fellow and Supervisor of POSCO Fellowship Program at The East-West Center, January 16, 2014, “U.S.-China Relations and the Western Pacific,” The Diplomat, http://thediplomat.com/2014/01/us-china-relations-and-the-western-pacific/, accessed 4/20/14

The middle of 2013 brought the possibility of a reset in U.S.-China relations, as new Chinese President Xi Jinping spoke of his desire for a “new kind of great power relations” as he enjoyed relaxed, heart-to-heart talks with U.S. President Barack Obama at a California resort. The year ended, however, with further evidence that strategic friction between Beijing and Washington is serious and long-term. The Chinese declaration of an air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in the East China Sea, a new demand that foreigners get China’s permission before fishing in the South China Sea, and the incident involving the U.S. Navy cruiser Cowpens and a Chinese naval vessel reinforced the suspicion that despite explicit denials, Beijing intends to impose a sphere of influence over the seas off the Chinese coast.

US/China naval conflict is escalating

Benjamin Carlson, Senior China correspondent, January 30, 2014, “China is playing chicken with the US military in the South China Sea,” The Global Post, www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/asia-pacific/china/140127/china-US-military-confrontation-south-china-sea-chicken, accessed 4/25/2014

As anyone who has seen “Rebel Without a Cause” knows, playing chicken is dangerous for California teenagers in hot-rods. But playing chicken with warships, cruisers, and fighter jets — well, that’s just another level of crazy. Unfortunately, vessels from the US military and from other countries increasingly find themselves in such high-stakes confrontations on the East Asian seas, where China has adopted a strategy of making rivals flinch or risk collision. Just this week, Chinese sailors parked three ships on a disputed reef 50 miles from the Malaysian coast and performed a ceremony in which they swore an oath “to safeguard [China’s] sovereignty and territorial interests.” Malaysia also claims the reef, and is building a naval base nearby to protect it against China’s claim. That’s just the latest in an escalating series of incidents

Conflict Now – East China Sea

Tensions high now in East China Sea because of ADIZ deployment

Bill Gertz, National Security Studies Program at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies and Syracuse University Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs, February 12, 2014, “Inside the Ring: U.S., China in war of words over South China Sea air zone,” Washington Times, http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/feb/12/inside-the-ring-obama-pushback-against-china-is-pr/, accessed 4/15/14

In an apparent attempt to remedy the problem, senior military leaders and White House and State Department officials in recent days issued relatively tough warnings to Beijing not to impose an air defense identification zone (ADIZ) over the contested South China Sea. China heightened tensions in the region late last year by imposing an ADIZ over the East China Sea, including waters off Japan’s Senkaku islands that China claims as its territory. Japan, South Korea and the United States said they will ignore China’s claims over the sea.

Chinese ownership claims provoking East China Sea conflict

Denny Roy, Senior Fellow and Supervisor of POSCO Fellowship Program at The East-West Center, January 16, 2014, “U.S.-China Relations and the Western Pacific,” The Diplomat, http://thediplomat.com/2014/01/us-china-relations-and-the-western-pacific/, accessed 4/20/14

China’s declaration of an ADIZ in the airspace near its territory followed precedents set by many other countries, including the U.S., Japan and South Korea. Thus it could be seen as China trying to keep up with the Japanese. But the ADIZ also reinforces China’s claim to some level of ownership over the East China Sea, as the ADIZ roughly encompasses the area of sea that China demarcates as its exclusive economic zone, a claim that cuts deeply into the half of the East China Sea bordered by Japanese territory. It is unfortunate that China chose to announce its ADIZ at a time of high tensions with Japan caused by the ongoing standoff over the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands. China’s act might have created a permanent new source of regional conflict. As the U.S. immediately signaled by flying two B-52 bombers into the zone without China’s approval, foreign governments predictably feel compelled to demonstrate non-compliance by violating the ban, which in turn humiliates Beijing and creates pressure for the Chinese to retaliate.¶ Effective January 1, Beijing is demanding that foreign vessels obtain prior permission from the Chinese government before fishing in the South China Sea. A PRC Foreign Ministry spokesperson said on January 9 that the purpose of the new regulation is “to strengthen the operation, development and rational utilization of fishery resources to protect fishery workers.” It sounds like another effort by Beijing to demonstrate administration and control as a basis for claiming ownership of disputed territory. As with the ADIZ, how strictly the Chinese attempt to enforce this unilateral law remains to be seen, but the PRC already has plans to greatly step up patrols of the South China Sea over the next few years

High risk of accidental conflict in the East China Sea

Naoya Yoshino and Gaku Shimada, Staff Writers, March 7, 2014, Nikkei Asian Review, “US, China ready to each assert power in Pacific”, http://asia.nikkei.com/Politics-Economy/International-Relations/US-China-ready-to-each-assert-power-in-Pacific, accessed 5/1/14

The latest QDR, which serves as the basic guideline for the Pentagon's military strategy, calls for boosting deployment levels of its naval assets in the Pacific from 50% to 60% by 2020.¶ China is pursuing a strategy in the Pacific dubbed Anti-Access/Area Denial (A2/AD). This strategy is based on China's two conceptual lines of defense against the U.S.¶ The latest QDR refers to these emerging A2/AD challenges, although it stops short of naming China. But it is clear that the U.S. plan to build up its naval presence in the Pacific is aimed at countering China's growing presence there. The new QDR also comes amid growing fears of an accidental clash in Asian waters. Japan, a key U.S. ally in Asia, is facing unilateral provocations from China in the East China Sea, which is home to the Senkaku Islands, or the Diaoyu Islands as China calls them.

Conflict Now – South China Seas

Miscalculated conflict coming now in the South China Sea

Bill Gertz, National Security Studies Program at Johns Hopkins, February 12, 2014, “Inside the Ring: U.S., China in war of words over South China Sea air zone,” Washington Times, http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/feb/12/inside-the-ring-obama-pushback-against-china-is-pr/, accessed 4/15/14

Recently, U.S. intelligence agencies warned that China appears to be readying another zone over the South China Sea, a move that is expected to set off further confrontations with Southeast Asian states including Vietnam, Philippines and Malaysia, which use the waters for fishing and are eyeing undersea oil and gas deposits.¶ On Monday, Air Force Gen. Herbert “Hawk” Carlisle, commander of U.S. air forces in the Pacific, bluntly stated that China’s imposition of a South China Sea ADIZ would be a “very provocative act.” “The risk from miscalculation is high. It’s greater than it should be,” Gen. Carlisle told Bloomberg News in Singapore. The general’s comments drew a harsh rebuke from Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Hua Chunying, who denounced what she termed “irresponsible” remarks.¶ However, Ms. Hua in a briefing for reporters in Beijing did not deny plans are underway for a South China Sea ADIZ. She suggested that the current security environment did not warrant

Chinese military modernization provoking South China Seas conflict

Naoya Yoshino and Gaku Shimada, Staff Writers, March 7, 2014, Nikkei Asian Review, “US, China ready to each assert power in Pacific”, http://asia.nikkei.com/Politics-Economy/International-Relations/US-China-ready-to-each-assert-power-in-Pacific, accessed 5/1/14

The Philippines, another U.S. ally, is also facing a similar situation in the South China Sea. By setting a numerical target for the U.S. naval presence in the Pacific, Washington is issuing a thinly veiled warning to Beijing over China's aggressive maritime activities in the East China and South China seas.¶ Pitching in The new QDR also shows how difficult the U.S.'s financial conditions are. There are lessons to be learned from the administration of former President George W. Bush, who lost public support after the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan weighed on the U.S. economy.¶ The U.S.'s basic future strategy in Asia will be to cope with security challenges posed by China while promoting burden-sharing with regional allies such as Japan, South Korea and Australia.¶ This expectation of increased cooperation is particularly strong toward Japan. The new QDR specifies that the U.S.'s critical naval presence in Japan needs to be enhanced. This statement can be seen as a request that Japan expand its scope of cooperation between its Self-Defense Forces and the U.S. military.¶ Immediately before the new QDR was released, Russia launched a military intervention in the southern Ukrainian region of Crimea, raising concerns about tensions between the U.S. and Russia. The situation in the Middle East is also becoming more tense than usual. There is no guarantee that the new U.S. defense strategy, as outlined in the latest QDR, will go ahead smoothly. China's military buildup¶ Chinese Premier Li Keqiang delivered a government work report at the opening of the annual session of the National People's Congress, the nation's parliament, on Wednesday. In the report, Li made clear China's policy of further modernizing its military. He said that China will enhance the combat readiness of its military and make efforts to develop high-tech weapons and equipment.

Overlapping spheres of influence ensure South China Sea conflict

Denny Roy, Senior Fellow and Supervisor of POSCO Fellowship Program at The East-West Center, January 16, 2014, “U.S.-China Relations and the Western Pacific,” The Diplomat, http://thediplomat.com/2014/01/us-china-relations-and-the-western-pacific/, accessed 4/20/14

After the Yellow Sea and the East China Sea, the other maritime region on China’s periphery is the South China Sea. The Chinese claim to at least partial ownership over the South China Sea is even stronger. To date Beijing refuses to clarify or disavow the infamous “9-dashed line” that on Chinese maps marks a boundary encompassing most of the South China, or the sea within the “first island chain” south of Taiwan. Beijing demonstrated that this claim is not merely symbolic when in 2012 it dispatched government ships to blockade Philippine fishermen from entering Scarborough Shoal, which is over 600 miles from the nearest Chinese coast but is within the exclusive economic zone of the Philippines.

Conflict Now - Taiwan

Taiwan conflict now because of negotiation failure

Jenny W. Hsu, Staff Writer, August 9, 2013, “Taiwan Says China Threat Is Growing,” WSJ, http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304500404579125100888948152, accessed 4/23/14

Still, Beijing has never renounced its intention to reclaim the democratic self-ruled island, which it considers a renegade province, by force if necessary. Chinese President Xi Jinping and Taiwan's envoy, former Vice President Vincent Siew, met at a closed-door meeting during last week's Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit, according to an account in China's official media.¶ The account said Mr. Xi said cross-strait issues must not wait any longer, signaling Beijing's growing impatience with Taiwan's unwillingness to engage in a political negotiation.¶ The report came at a time when Taiwan's armed forces are suffering low morale after a string of recent events, including a death of a conscript who allegedly died as a result of abuse by his superior, have rocked the public's confidence in the island's defense capability.

Protests fueling Taiwan conflict now

Marjorie Romeyn-Sanabria, Staff Writer, March 25, 2014, "Taiwan’s Protests Could Mean Trouble With China," The American Conservative, www.theamericanconservative.com/taiwans-protests-could-mean-trouble-with-china/, accessed 4/27/14

The protests come at the tail of a long decline in popular opinion of Taiwanese president Ma Ying-Jeou, whose conciliatory stance with China has incited a slow-burning resentment among his political opponents, and has even caused those within his own party to distance themselves from him. Ma’s approval ratings have dropped close to the level of disgraced former DPP prime minister Chen Sui-bian, who was convicted of money laundering in 2009. One possible outcome of these protests, especially if the trade pact is derailed, is that formal relations across the strait could begin to deteriorate. Damon Linker in The Week speculates that if China were to take Taiwan, it would herald the end of American expansionism in the region. He argues that in spite of written agreements to help Taiwan defend itself, the United States would be unlikely to join in such a war. American neutrality in a hegemon-underdog dispute would bespeak our weakening global image as the world’s national guard, in Linker’s view. While logically sound, this perspective overlooks one important aspect of U.S.-China-Taiwan relations: The United States’s ability to influence Taiwanese relations with China or in the international community was never very strong to begin with.

US/China conflict coming now over Taiwan

Iskander Rehman, Research Fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, February 28, 2014, "Why Taiwan Matters," www.csbaonline.org/2014/02/28/why-taiwan-matters/, accessed 4/28/14

Others point to the fact that Chinese elites regularly invoke the issue of U.S. arms sales to Taiwan as a major source of friction, and as the principal obstacle to deeper U.S.-China military-to-military ties and greater mutual trust between Washington and Beijing. Finally, a number of leading academics view the United States’ security commitment to Taiwan as a perilous strategic liability, which fans the flames of Sino-U.S. military competition. For these thinkers, Taiwan forms a dangerous and unnecessary flashpoint at the very heart of the Sino-U.S. relationship. Christopher Layne, one of the best-known proponents of offshore balancing, has argued [5] that An offshore balancing strategy would also require a new U.S. stance on Taiwan, a powder-keg issue because China is committed to national reunification and would regard a Taiwanese declaration of independence as a casus belli. If U.S. policy fails to prevent a showdown between China and Taiwan, the odds are that America will be drawn into the conflict because of its current East Asia Strategy… the issues at stake in a possible showdown between China and Taiwan simply would not justify the risks and costs of U.S. intervention