Bibliography: Land Degradation in South Africa project

CO2 climate. International Journal of Climatology 16:1149-1156, 1996.

Reprint : Not in File,

Keywords : DROUGHT; SOUTHERN AFRICA; CLIMATE

Ref ID : 972

1175. Joubert, A.M. and Mason, S.J. Droughts over southern Africa in a doubled-

co2 climate. International Journal of Climatology 16:1149-1156, 1996.

Reprint : In File,

Keywords : DROUGHT; CLIMATE CHANGE; MODELS; RAINFALL

Abstract : The southern African region is susceptible to climatic extremes and

particularly to extended dry periods. Possible changes in the probability of

dry years under doubled-CO2 conditons are examined using output from the CSIRO

nine-level general circulation model. Changes in annual mean rainfall are not

expected to be significant. However, the model simulates an increase in the

probability of dry years in the tropics, to the south-west of the subcontinent,

as well as over the western and eastern parts of SA and southern Mozambique,

where large percentage increases in the the most intense dry spells are

indicated. A decrease in the frequency of dry years is simulated over much of

the interior of the subcontinent south of 10oS. In regions where the frequency

of dry years decreases, the most severe events occur less often. The CSIRO

nine-level model indicates a shift in the frequency distribution of daily

rainfall events under doubled-CO2 conditions. A small change in the frequency

distribution of daily rainfall events may have further implications for the

frequency of mid-summer droughts during the peak summer rainfall period of

December-February. Increases in the frequency of mid-summer droughts are

simulated over the eastern part of the subcontinent south of 20oS.

Ref ID : 993

1176. Joubert, A.M. and Tyson, P.D. Equilibrium and fully coupled GCM

simulations of future southern African climates. South African Journal of

Science 92:471-484, 1996.

Reprint : In File,

Keywords : CLIMATE CHANGE; MODELS; CLIMATE; RAINFALL; SOUTHERN AFRICA

Notes : Changes in seasonally averaged surface air temperature, mean sea-level

pressure and rainfall predicted by a representative range of current equilibrium

climate models linked to mixed-layer oceans and fully coupled ocean-atmosphere

models are compared. All fully coupled and mixed-layer models predict increased

temperatures under enhanced greenhouse conditions throughout southern Africa.

By comparison with the mixed-layer models, the magnitude of warming predicted by

the fully coupled models is much diminished, particularly over the southern

oceans. However, it is important to compare predicted warming normalized to a

global average of 1oC in order to account for differences in experimental design

between fully coupled and mixed-layer models. The pattern of normalized warming

indicates that fully coupled models predict greater warming than the mixed-layer

models over the subcontinental land mass, whereas the mixed-layer models predict

greater normalized warming in the high latitudes of the southern oceans.

Predicted decreases in pressue simulated by both fully coupled and mixed-layer

models over much of the tropics and subtropics are indicative of an

intensification of the tropical easterly circulation. However, caution must be

exercised in using mean sea-level pressures to estimate circulation changes over

the interior plateau region. None the less, the magnitude of predicted changes

in pressure are similar to observed pressure anomalies associated with extended

periods of above- and below-normal rainfall over southern Africa. LIttle

confidence may be expressed in simulated circulation changes over the oceans

south of the subcontinent. Neither the fully coupled nor mixed-layer models

predict any significant change in rainfall seasonality over southern Africa

under enhanced greenhouse conditions. Both types of model simulate 10-20%

increases in rainfall during summer in the tropics. These predicted changes are

physically consistent with predicted increases in temperature and an intensified

tropical easterly circulation. Over much of the rest of the subcontinent, fully

coupled models and to a lesser extent mixed-layer models simulate rainfall

decreases in summer which are not physically consistent with similar changes in

temperature and pressure. However, both types of model display almost no

agreement in the predicted sign of rainfall change over the subcontinent during

the second half of summer. As such, the uncertainties associated with the

simulation of future rainfall changes remain to be resolved and are a major

obstacle to the confident development of future climate scenarios. Recent

evidence suggests that significant errors may exist in current fully coupled

model simulations of the southern ocean. Currently, mixed-layer models may be

more reliable for developing regional climate change scenarios.

Ref ID : 1493

1177. Joubert, E. The past and present distribution and status of the black

rhinoceros Diceros Bicornis Linn 1758 in South West Africa. Madoqua 4(1):33-34,

1971.

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Keywords : NAMIBIA; FAUNA; STATISTICS

Ref ID : 2245

1178. Joubert, S. Bosindringing en verdigting in Natalstreek. Proceedings of a

workshop on bush encroachment and bush thickening held in Pretoria. Pienaar,

A.J.Anonymous Pretoria:Department of Agriculture and Fisheries. :D1-D5, 1980.

Reprint : Not in File,

Keywords : BUSH ENCROACHMENT

Ref ID : 245

1179. Jurgens, N., Burke, A., Seely, M.K., and Jacobson, K.M. Desert. In:

Vegetation of Southern Africa. edited by Cowling, R.M., Richardson, D.M., and

Pierce, S.M.Cambridge:Cambridge University Press, 1997,p. 189-214.

Reprint : In File,

Keywords : BOTANICAL SURVEY; NAMIBIA; SOUTHERN AFRICA; VEGETATION DYNAMICS

Notes : The author concludes that, although the Namib has been the focus of much

botanical interest, scientific research on the vegetation has been limited.

More research is required on all aspects of the biome's flora and vegetation.

More taxonomic research is still required in a number of taxa, e.g.

Mesembryanthemaceae and various petaloid monocots. Distribution data for species

and vegetation units are also inadequate. Basic knowlede on important

environmental parameters, e.g. fog precipitation, is missing. Very few sites

for the analysis of vegetation dynamics have been established in this highly

variable environment. Little data is available on species interactions, life-

history strategies or soil-plant interactions, and comprehensive ecosystem-level

studies have yet to be initiated. Data is lacking on the history of the desert

environment, especially with respect to changing patterns of human influence.

Studies on desertification processes and the potential for restoring degraded

environments are in their infancy. It would be a great tragedy if the unique

flora and vegetation of the Namib Desert were to remain so poorly known and

understood.

Ref ID : 1001

1180. Jury, M.R. A preliminary note on rainfall and vegetation trends in the

south-western Cape: 1985-1988. South African Journal of Botany 59(2):265-269,

1993.

Reprint : In File,

Keywords : RAINFALL; VEGETATION CHANGE; WESTERN CAPE; CLIMATE; DROUGHT

Abstract : Changes in the distribution of vegetation and rainfall over the

south-western Cape from 1985 to 1988 were analysed. The density of

photosynthetically active biomass was determined from visible satellite imagery

using internationally accepted algorithms. Trends in rainfall were evaluated on

the coastal plain to the south of 33oS and over the elevated interior to the

north of 33oS. During the study period, rainfall exhibited a declincing trend

over the coastal plains. In contrast, the elevated interior experienced a

three-fold increase. In response, photosynthetic activity within the coastal

belt declined, whereas the interior Karoo region was replenished with vegetation

including savanna-type shrubs and grasses. Changes in the distribution of

rainfall and vegetation may be explained by a southward shift of the sub-

tropical and mid-latitude climate zones. Such a shift could become a permanent

feature in a global-warming scenario, and focuses attention on the plight of

marginal agricultural zones in the face of increasing drought and human stress.

Ref ID : 1000

1181. Jury, M.R. and Levey, K. The Eastern Cape drought. Water SA 19(2):133-137,

1993.

Reprint : In File,

Keywords : DROUGHT; EASTERN CAPE; AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION; NAMIBIA; RAINFALL

Abstract : In recent years the Eastern Cape has experienced recurring drought

with unfavourable impacts on agricultural production and water resources. Dam

levels in early 1992 were 30% of capacity. Statistical analysis has

demonstrated that drought recurs at intervals of 3,45 and 18,2 years,

particularly when March rains fail to materialise. Regional analysis of

cloudiness, surface and upper level winds, and sea surface temperatures exhibit

distinctive patterns in drought years. Low-level winds sweep eastward bringing

Karoo-like conditions to the Eastern Cape, in association with increased jet

stream winds. Reduced cloudiness is noted in a NW-SE band extending from

Namibia across the Eastern Cape watershed. To the south of Madagascar, the SW

Indian Ocean anticyclone strengthens in drought years and increased trade winds

cause the Agulhas Current to cool and recurve soutwards near East London.

Consequently sea surface temperatures to the south-west are 3oC cooler in dry

years. The subtropical humid air mass over the Agulhas Current and north-

eastern South Africa retreates eastwards, and rainfall associated with cut-off

lows and ridging anticyclones is limited over the Eastern Cape.

Ref ID : 853

1182. Kakembo, V. The role of railway culverts in gully development near Alice,

Eastern Cape. Unpublished paper presented to Future research directions in the

Eastern Cape Symposium, Rhodes University. 1995.

Reprint : Not in File,

Keywords : SOIL EROSION; CISKEI; SETTLEMENT IMPACTS

Ref ID : 778

1183. Kakembo, V. A reconstruction of the history of land degradation in

relation to land use change and land tenure in Peddie district, former

Ciskei.Rhodes University, Grahamstown. , 1997. A history of land degradation is

reconstructed in a part of the dividing ridge between the Great Fish and

Keiskamma rivers, in Peddie District, former Ciskei. The study entails a

comparative investigation of the progressive changes in land use, vegetation and

soil erosion in three tenure units, namely: former commerical farms, traditional

and betterment villages. Analysis of the sequential aerial photograph of the

area for 1938, 1954, 1965, 1975 and 1988 is employed. This is backed by

groundtruthing exercises. Data thus obtained is quantified, and linkages

between degradation, anthropogenic and physical factors are derived using

ARC/INFO GIS. Differences in land tenure systems emerge as the main controlling

factor to variations in land degradation. Confinement of vegetation diminution

and erosion to traditional and betterment villages is observed at all dates.

Scantily vegetated surfaces and riparian vegetation removal are a characteristic

feature of both areas throughout the study period. 'Betterment', introduced in

the early 1960s to curb land degradation is, instead, observed to exacerbate it,

particularly soil erosion. Trends in land use change are characterised by the

abandonment of cultivated land, which is noted to coincide with a sharp rise in

population. Erosion intensification into severe forms particularly between 1965

and 1975, coincident with a period of extreme rainfall events, emerges as the

most significant degradation trend. A close spatial correlation between

abandoned cultivated land and intricate gullies is identified. So is the case

between grazing land and severe sheet erosion. Within the grazing lands, an

examination of erosion and categories of vegetated surfaces reveals that erosion

occurs predominantly on the scanty vegetation category. Such erosion-vegetation

interaction largely explains the non-recovery of the scanty vegetation category,

even during periods of intense rainfall. Extensive channel degradation is

evident along stream courses with scant riparian vegetation. Physical factors

are noted to have a significant bearing on erosion. The high prevalence of

erosion on the Ecca group of rocks confirms its erosion-prone nature. Pockets

of colluvium and alluvium accumulation in the steep bottomlands are identified

as the sites of the most severe gully erosion. Field surveys at some of the

sites indicate that a dolerite sill through the area forms a boundary of

colluvium accumulation and the upslope limit to gully incision. That these

sites are recognised as formerly cultivated land, portrays the interaction

between physical and anthropogenic variables with regard to inducing degradation

in the area.Master of Science.

Reprint : Not in File,

Keywords : LAND DEGRADATION; BETTERMENT PLANNING; LAND USE; COMMUNAL AREA;

CISKEI; SOIL EROSION; EROSION; LAND TENURE; POPULATION; RAINFALL

Notes : Abstract in file.

Ref ID : 1067

1184. Kakembo, V. Land degradation in relation to land tenure in Peddie

District, Eastern Cape. In: Proceedings of the international conference on land

tenure in the developing world with a focus on Southern Africa, held at the

University of Cape Town, 27-29 January 1998, edited by Barry, M.Cape

Town:Department of Geomatics, University of Cape Town, 1998,p. 311-318.

Reprint : In File,

Keywords : LAND DEGRADATION; LAND TENURE; CISKEI; COMMUNAL AREA; EASTERN CAPE;

SOUTHERN AFRICA; SOIL EROSION; EROSION; LAND REFORM; RESTORATION; CONSERVATION;

POLICY

Abstract : A study of land degradation is carried out in part of Peddie

district, Eastern Cape. It entails a comparative investigation of the

progressive changes in vegetation and soil erosion in three adjacent land tenure

units, namely: former commercial farms, traditional and betterment villages.

Sequential aerial photographs of the area for 1938, 1954, 1965, 1975 and 1988

are analysed. Data thus obtained is quantified and analysed using PC ARC/INFO

GIS. Differences in land tenure emerge as the main controlling factor to

variations in land degradation. Vegetation diminution and soil erosion are

confined to both traditional and betterment villages at all the dates.

"Betterment", introduced in the early 1960s to curb land degradation is instead,

observed to exacerbate it. The implications of these findings for land reform,

restoration and conservation policy directions are crucial.

Ref ID : 530

1185. Kalipeni, E. Population growth and environmental degradation in southern

Africa, Boulder, Colorado:Rienner, 1998.

Reprint : Not in File,

Keywords : POPULATION; LAND DEGRADATION; SOUTHERN AFRICA

Ref ID : 2406

1186. Kalule-Sabiti, J. and Kahimbaara, J.A. Analysis of life time migration in

the former Transkei, Eastern Cape. South African Journal of Sociology , 1990.

Reprint : Not in File,

Keywords : TRANSKEI; EASTERN CAPE; POPULATION; CARRYING CAPACITY; LABOUR;

MONITORING; RURAL DEVELOPMENT; SOCIOECONOMIC ASPECTS

Notes : The purpose was to provide data on internal migration in Transkei in

order to fill a gap that has been identified. Issues such as trends and

patterns of internal migration, including migration fields of the sample urban

places at varying stages in the migration cycle, characteristics of the

migration process, reasons for migrating and similar issues were addressed. A

questionnaire consisting of three parts was used for the study. These were:

the household schedule to obtain information from all members of each household,

the migration schedule to collect information on the characteristics of

migrants, and a rural link schedule to establish the perception of migrants

regarding their perforamnce in their destinations. A stratified sampling

procedure was used, and a sample size of 3223 households was used. It was found

that one major sending area of migrants to the main Transkei urban centres was

the Republic of South Africa, thus giving the migration pattern a regional

dimension. The regional nature of migration in the Transkei implies a high rate

of population growth relative to the carrying capacity of the territory. The

agricultural sector cannot adquately support the population; more in-migration

can only worsen the situation. Another major sending area of migrants was a

combination of other places in Transkei. There is considerable internal

migration mainly from rural to urban areas. This implies a relatively rapid

growth of urban areas and a decline in the labour force of the rural areas. A

recommended solution to increase pressure on the resources of Transkei arising

from migration, is to adopt development programmes that would increase economic

productivity in the territory. This article is obtainable from the UFH main

library. See ref. I.D. no: 2339.

Ref ID : 2466

1187. Kaniki, A.M. Exploratory study of information needs in the Kwa-Ngwanase

(Natal) and Qumbu (Transkei) communities in South Africa. South African Journal

of Library and Information Science , 1994.

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Keywords : TRANSKEI; AID; DROUGHT; POVERTY; KWAZULU NATAL; RURAL DEVELOPMENT;

ECONOMIC ASPECTS; SUBSIDIES

Notes : The purpose was to investigate the information needs of rural persons in

Kwa-Ngwanase and Qumbu, who the information providers are, demographic

distributions of persons within the communities and implications and relevance

of the demographic data in relation to the information needs and the information

providers. The choice of communities for this study was somewhat accidental but

convenient. In each of the communities 100 persons were selected randomly and

an interview was conducted using structured questionnaires. In total 200 persons

were interviewed. Data were collected on critical incidents of information

seeking situations, various information providers and demographic data on

respondents. The findings revlealed that the two rural communities in South

Africa experienced a variety of information needs. Most persons in the

communities experienced problems of getting information on employment

opportunities, information on financial aid for education, information on

agricultural marketing facilities and services for products, information on

drought, pest control and eradication, poverty in the area etc. In general, the

study attempted to answer the following questions: what are the information

needs in the two communities? Which information providers do people use? And

what is the demographic distribution of each community and its implication for

the information provision in these areas. This article is obtainable from the

main library at the University of Fort Hare. See also ID ref. no. 2339.

Ref ID : 168

1188. Kanthack, F.E. The alleged desiccation of South Africa. The Geographical

Journal 76(6):516-521, 1930.

Reprint : In File,

Keywords : DESSICATION; HYDROMETEOROLOGY; DROUGHT; ENVIRONMENTAL HISTORY;

EROSION; SOIL EROSION; RAINFALL; CONSERVATION; POVERTY

Notes : There is a common perception, which grows in times of drought, that SA

is drying up. Another aspect which excites both public and official imagination

is that erosion of the soil and softer rocks of the country has been proceeding

on an enormous scale during the past hundred years. So far as the public and

farmers are concerned, these two aspects are generally linked and devastation of

large areas due to soil erosion is attributed to meteorological changes during

the past century. In dealing with these problems, this paper defines what is

meant by dessication. The author suggests that, while these problems exist, in

arid and semi-arid areas there is little evidence to support the contention that

conditions have materially changed since the advent of the white man in SA. The

contention that rainfall has dropped dramatically is also dealt with. Instead,

the author suggests other factors which may have influenced soil degradation,

such as faulty farming. He concludes by saying that a vast tonnage of excellent

soil has during the past century been sent down to the ocean to swell the

dimensions of the great Agulhas bank and is, of course, irretrievably lost, and

it would take thousands of years to make good the damage by natural means if all

further erosion were stopped. Much can however be done to check the rate of

destruction. The better type of farmer - pastoral or agricultural - has been

doing excellent work for many years, and he is well aware that conservation of

the veld and of his valuable alluvial soils is a paying proposition and that

failure to do so means bancruptcy. The arid and semi-arid back-veld is however

still mainly inhabited by ignorant, poverty stricken, and indolent people who

are difficult to educate, unwilling to learn, incapable of carrying out

improvements because of their poverty, and often very work-shy. There is at the

moment a recrudescence of official concern about the alarming effects of soil

erosion following seven years of indifference and inactivity since the Drought

Commission report was published, and it is to be hoped that something tangible

will result.

Ref ID : 2033

1189. Keet, J.D.M. Tree planting in Orange Free State, Griqualand West,

Bechuanaland, and north-eastern districts of the Cape Province.Anonymous

Pretoria:Department of Forestry. 24, 1929.

Reprint : Not in File,

Keywords : FREE STATE; FORESTRY

Notes : Bulletin no 24 of the Department of Forestry, Pretoria.

Ref ID : 2034

1190. Keet, J.D.M. Report on drift sands in South Africa.Anonymous

Pretoria:Department of Agriculture and Forestry. 9, 1936.

Reprint : Not in File,

Keywords : FORESTRY

Notes : Forestry Series no. 9, Department of Agriculture and Forestry, Pretoria.

Ref ID : 459

1191. Kelbe, B., Mulder, G., Bodenstein, B., Hattingh, D., and Verwey, A. An

investigation of the hydrological response to third world settlements in peri-