Nigeria 2015: analysis of election issues and future prospects
Nigeria’s foreign relations US-Nigeria relations
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Nigeria’s foreign relations
OverviewThe US views Nigeria as a key power in Africa and a valued strategic partner. This perspective first took hold in the 1970s, when Nigeria emerged as an oil power. While relations were often strained during periods of military rule in Nigeria, they have generally been much more positive since the country’s return to civilian rule in 1999 – but this does not mean that they have become straightforward. Levels of oil imports to the US from Nigeria have begun to decline – a trend which looks set to continue.134 In July 2014, Nigeria exported no crude oil to the US for the first time since 1973.135 The main framework for bilateral dialogue and co-operation today is provided by the US-Nigeria Binational Commission, which was established in 2010. Five working groups meet regularly, covering: good governance, transparency and integrity; energy and investment; regional security; Niger Delta; and agriculture and food security.136 John Campbell writes: “Unfortunately, the United States and other outsiders have little leverage over the Jonathan government”. He notes that Nigeria is not reliant on US aid and that American capacity to influence its policies or actions is further limited by the country’s large size and economic weight.137 In early January 2015, the US Ambassador to Nigeria, James Entwistle, said: “I am not worried in the least that Nigeria is going to disintegrate in 2015”.138 SecurityThe two countries co-operate on counter-terrorism. Nigeria is eligible for assistance under the US Government’s Global Security Contingency Fund. The US has designated a number of individuals linked to Boko Haram as global terrorists, including its leader, Muhammed Abubakar Shekau, and has designated Boko Haram as a terrorist organisation. Nigeria is a participant in the US-sponsored Trans Sahara Counterterrorism Partnership. However, Nigerian officials and sections of public opinion are sometimes sensitive about ‘outside interference’ in the country’s internal affairs and across the region, particularly with regard to corruption, human rights and security issues.139 While not overtly hostile to it, Nigeria has viewed the establishment of the US Africa Command (AFRICOM) with a certain mistrust, opposing proposals to establish a headquarters within Africa.140 On the US side, concerns about human rights abuses committed by the Nigerian security forces and rampant official corruption has prevented fuller co-operation.141 The ‘Leahy Law’, first passed by Congress in 1997, prohibits assistance to any foreign security forces which are implicated in gross violations of human rights. More broadly, US Department of Defense officials have called Nigeria “an extremely challenging partner to work with” and “slow to adapt with new strategies, new doctrines, and new tactics”.142 The international furore surrounding the kidnapping by Boko Haram of an estimated 270 schoolgirls from the town of Chibok in Borno state in April 2014 has led to heightened counterterrorism co-operation. AFRICOM personnel were part of a Department of State-led interagency coordination and assessment cell set up in response to this kidnapping to identify any assistance and resources required by the Nigerian government to locate and recover the missing girls. Joint efforts to promote a “civilian-centred approach to security” were also stepped up, as was work to create a counter-Improvised Explosive Device capability and strengthen the intelligence capability of the Nigerian security forces. The US is providing commercial satellite data and intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance support to Nigeria’s military. The US is also assisting regional efforts to enhance border security along Nigeria's borders with Chad, Niger and Cameroon.143 In May 2014, the US deployed about 80 military personnel to Chad, where they support the operation of drones based in the capital, N’djamena, over northern Nigeria and neighbouring countries. Co-operation continues to have its limits. In late April 2014, US experts began working with Nigeria's newly created counterterrorism-focused ranger battalion. However, in December 2014, the US confirmed that this effort had been terminated early by the Nigerian Government. Although no public reason for the termination was given, some claimed that it came in response to a US refusal to sell lethal military equipment to Nigeria.144 The US has refuted recent claims that it has introduced an arms embargo against Nigeria.145
The US has been Nigeria’s single largest goods export market every year since 1995. Levels of Nigerian goods exports to the United States peaked at $125 billion in 2011, though this has fallen sharply in subsequent years, reaching $103 billion in 2013. This fall is due to a reduction in oil exports, owing to increases in American shale oil production. 
Between 2011 and 2013 the value of Nigerian oil exports to the US fell from $34.5 billion to $13.7 billion. In July 2014, Nigeria did not export any oil to the US for the first time since records began in 1973.147 In spite of this, oil and natural gas still comprise the vast majority of Nigerian goods exports to the US, making up 98% of total goods exports in 2013. In 2013, the US was Nigeria’s second largest source of goods imports, after China. Nigeria’s largest goods imports from the US were manufactured goods, machinery and transport equipment. In 2000, the US and Nigeria signed the United States-Nigeria Trade and Investment Framework Agreement (TIFA). This agreement sought to provide “regular, high-level dialogue on enhancing U.S.-Nigeria economic ties and improving co-ordination on multilateral and bilateral trade and investment issues.”148 In March 2014, the TIFA Council held its 8th meeting, led by U.S. Trade Representative Michael B. G. Froman and Nigerian Minister of Industry, Trade and Investment, Dr. Olusegun O. Aganga.149 AidAlthough – unlike many other countries in sub-Saharan Africa – Nigeria is not heavily reliant on foreign aid, the US is Nigeria’s largest single bilateral aid donor. In total, the US allocated $419.1m in net Overseas Development Assistance (ODA) to Nigeria in 2012 (the most recent year for which full data is available). Of that total, the US Agency for International Development (USAID) spent $238.2m on the following sectors:
In the Niger Delta, USAID is working with Chevron on a $50m programme to improve agricultural development and governance capacity. In the north, most of USAID’s work is focused on Bauchi and Sokoto states.151 The most striking characteristic of USAID’s work in Nigeria in 2012 was its overwhelming focus on the health sector: 79% of its total bilateral aid was spent on health. USAID spent relatively little by comparison with the UK’s Department for International Development (DFID – see below) on areas such as governance, economic development or education.
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