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- 2. The hardware operation or the black box of the draw
- 3. The draw in context: the intellectual operation
Procedure of choice Reduction Tool Moving from many options ... Psephos - vote Aggregation of preferences through a vote + calculation mechanism. ...... To one. Agora- market Confrontation of preferences until the balance through the price. Dokimasia - docimasie Review of the adequacy with the predefined criteria (which correspond to the preferences of the allocators). Kleros - cleros Random Moment Kleromanteia - cleromancie Random Moment + interpretation Illustration 3: The different procedures of choice. These distinctions help answer has two of the four questions concerning the bouleutes that we asked ourselves at the beginning of this chapter: the counselors were chosen during a procedural block comprising a cleros, a docimasie and a vote (the " how? " On the departure) to fill a deliberative function and individual (the " what? ≪ Of departure). We do not know however not yet how the cleros itself operates, which is located in the " black box " on the draw, that we will now open, in the hope that it is not transformed into Pandora's box. 19The semantics was not necessarily preceded by a draw, for example when the divination was based on visions or dreams. 20Now that the distinction is made between draw natural and artificial we will use the word prize draw in the second sense, unless otherwise indicated. 44
2. The hardware operation or the black box of the draw 2. The hardware operation or the black box of the draw In the procedure of choice of bouleutes, the draw was grace has the employment of the kleroteria and tablets of bronze. This procedure is it a particular type of cleros? Or all prints are similar? More generally, how can we distinguish of steps at a draw? Kornhauser & Sager (1988, 485) have proposed a redistricting in three steps on which we will build to describe the hardware operation of drawing i.e. is the specific moment or between in game the random: " A lottery allocates a benefit (sometimes called a "prize") among a designated group of potential profits ( "candidate" who understood a "pool") according to a stipulated procedure (the "pay-off condition" ). ≪ In incorporating these elements, we can identify four " moments " when the hardware operation of circulation: a first step is to define the item or " price " as well as the possible options (2.1 ), a second corresponds to the definition of the pool of candidates (2.2 ). Then between in game the random moment, designated here as we will see by the term of palos, corresponding to the condition of profitability ( pay-off condition) evoked by Kornhauser & Sager (2.3 ). Finally, the process will complete eventually by a confirmation (2.4 ). 2.1The "price" and the pool of options Most often, an operation of drawing begins by the fixing of the item (lot, post, decision) or " price " as well as the list of possible options and of the selection conditions or rejet21. For example, when the draw of a of has six faces the options will be 1,2,3,4,5 and 6 and may decide to assign the digits peers has a condition of selection and the odd has a condition of rejection. By this operation, each item therefore receives a probability of realization. In the case built here, each option receives an equal probability was 50 %. The definition of a series of options also allows you to create multiple allowances. As well, if there is a ballot box with the white balls and black and that we assigned the option black has a choice and the white option has a rejection, we can organize a massive draw. Once this pairing achieved, one may be interested in candidates, i.e. the group of sorteables. 21The definition of pool and options is done in the reality the simultaneously (Elster (1987, 109). 45 Chapter 1: a typology of the prize draw 2.2The pool of sorteables22 " I know of no instance of social lotteries without some pre-qualification gold scrutiny on the basis of need, merit, and the like. ≪ Elster (1989, 67-68). The constitution ex ante of the group among which we will draw the fate is at the time the step the more complex and probably the most influential of the physical operation of drawing. In theory one could imagine a drawing without qualification, but this case does not seem to exist in practice, as the stressed Elster (cf. highlights). In the case of bouleutes for example, two conditions were necessary: it should be an Athenian citizen and having more than thirty years. A inductive review of all the rules of existing qualification seems impossible, that is why we will present a series of deductive criteria: 1.Voluntary Participation against mandatory participation: items in game can-they or must-they take part in the prize draw? More participation is mandatory, more the level of qualification is low since the items must participate even against their will. The mandatory can be cultural in nature. Thus, if the participation in the prize draw for the trackball seems to have been voluntary, it does not seem unreasonable to think that the dominant political culture of this time made this participation rather obligatory (Bleicken 2005). 2." All, some, a " on : this famous Aristotelian alternative on the number of rulers also applies for the qualification. More than the relative number of items has take part in the prize draw is large, the more it has a level of qualification down. 3.Natural Qualification against gained: the first corresponds to the characteristics data (be a human, large, small, a woman, etc) and the second has the qualities acquired in the course of time (buy a ticket of entry, pay a cens, be holder of a minimum score has a review, etc. ). 22This term is the translation of the losberechtigt of Buchstein (2000, 170) and returns to the equivalent " eligible ", or " saleable " on other types of procedure. 46 2. The hardware operation or the black box of the draw 4.Active Participation against passive: more than the item must act to enter in the pool, the more one can consider the level of qualification as high. For example the candidates has a place for a football match of the world cup must fill out a form before you have the right to participate. On the contrary, the jurors of the judicial panels in France have nothing to do, it comes out. It can be argued that the interaction of these factors determines a sort of overall level of qualification. For example, a printout optional concerning a few - say the two kings of the Nordic fable unfolds in Ekeland - would have a level of qualification haut23. On the other hand a printout mandatory on all passengers of a canoe in distress to know who will be eaten would have a low level of training. 2.3The random moment or palos
It is located at the heart of the machine random, at the actual time of the blind estate that we will appoint palos has the result of Pralon. One can distinguish between three types of palos. The first is what is called in statistics a draw pure or equiprobable, i.e. the one in which the deterministic phase (the agreement of participants) stops after the choice of items, options and the pool of sorteables: each item receives in this case an equal chance. However, it may happen that the competitors want play a more active role in the process by influencing the chances of occurrence of a result. In this case, they will be able to use a weighted draw in which some sorteables will have more chances than other beings chosen. By 23Ekeland (1991, 13) : " Torstein Frode tells that in Hising was a city had linked are fate earlier has Norway and earlier has Sweden. The two kings then agreed that pull the fate has that it would be tantamount: they would launch the of, and the winner would be the one who would have the highest total. ≪ 47 Chapter 1: a typology of the prize draw Example, if one wants to promote the selection of women for a post can be put two times more female names that of male names in the pool24. But the competitors may want to go even further and decide you want to influence not the probabilities of outcome, but the latter directly using quotas (Elster 1989, 96-97). In this case, they secure the pool of sorteables and then assign the objectives determined at the result of the palos, for example the parity. The " paper " on learned of the bag returning has the category " man " or " woman " cease to be taken into account once the quota reached (50% in the case of parity). The difference between the two modes of control may seem innocuous, it is nevertheless a fundamental: then that the weighting system prevents theoretically not that 100% of the chosen are all of the same of men (rare but not impossible), the quota system blocked this possibility by introducing of the determinism in the heart even of the palos whose contents random decreases without disappearing completely. In effect, if we know that we will have 50% of women, it is not known which (except if the number of candidates is equal to or less than 50% of the number of women's spaces to occupy) nor what woman will get the post in first, which can be crucial. 2.3 .2Formalization Let us assume that a driver lost decided to resort to the draw to decide if it will run to the left or right at the next intersection. He can follow the first blue car, play a stack or face or even launch a random number generator (hand to left and odd for right for example). These three modes cover the palette of possibilities of formalization, i.e. the degree of research aware of a process entirely random. The first type is what Elster appoints the prints epistemic (2000, 242). The second corresponds to prints made with an instrument non-exclusive given that the piece, if it can serve as a draw, has not been created for it; this is not its primary function. The generator on the other hand is a dedicated instrument in the draw. Of the same that the Greek kleroteria or the imborsione florentins25. These degrees of formalisation are - just as the three types 24 An interesting case of drawing of this type is reported by Elster (1987, 123): " In the United States ... the supplementary draft for the National Football League, the rights to choose players are allocated by year inverse weighted lottery. The Champions get their name placed in a hat ounce. The last-place team (twenty-eighth) get their name placed in the hat twenty-eight times. ≪ 25The instruments created respectively by the Greeks and by the Florentines in the sole purpose of achieving the prize draws. 48 2. The hardware operation or the black box of the draw Drawing presented above - the means of controlling the amount of indeterminacy content in the palos. A random generator search in a targeted way - and this is not obvious - has create a random result responding to the laws of the statistique26. A draw epistemic capacities in contrast can be virtually non-random without that it does gene the actors who do not seek " the random objective " but " the impression of random ≪, because, as one can show through the example above, one could imagine that a factory of blue cars is located on the right hand side of the road and that the cars out to be sold in the garages of the city is located at the end of the road to the left. In this case, it can be reasonably assumed that the probability that a blue car Vienna on the left will be lower than the reverse and the draw will not equiprobable. The formalization can be an important issue concerning the procedures for drawing. We know, for example, that the fact for a sonar to poll 1000 people of epistemic manner in its street will give results less random in terms of representativeness sociological that a procedure through the drawing of thousand addresses on the whole of the territory by a random generator. Some epistemic prints are similar even to natural prints (cf. supra, paragraph 2.3.2 ): the driver previously cited cannot assign probabilities has its options because they do not know how many blue cars could come from left. In addition, it is not even what is a blue car : should it be entirely blue? It is sufficient that the cover is blue? The driver has a wide margin of interpretation.
Any drawing leads, according to the mathematical theorems in force, has the creation of a sample more or less representative of the whole of departure (the so-called universe). The re26A Production of a series of number mathematically random is an exercise particularly complex because of the difficulty has exclude any constant algorithms and formulas for the calculation. On this point see Ekeland (1991, 20-37). 49
Chapter 1: a typology of the prize draw Presentativite depends on factors that we have already mentioned such as the quotas, the weighting or formalization, but also operations post-palos that we will see by the result. As well the establishment of quotas may increase the representativeness of the sample but can also decrease, if the quotas do not correspond to the actual characteristics of the base population. Similarly, the conditions of entry into the pool , that is to say in the statistical universe, influence the representativeness of the latter and therefore the final representativeness. There is, however, a mathematical relationship inescapable, that of the weak law of large numbers which states that the representativeness of a sample depends not on its size but of the confidence interval (i.e. the probability that a result is consistent with expectations) chosen regardless of the universe of departure (see illustration 5, p. 50). Either a territory or live 100 million inhabitants (universe of the study, note N). Among them, 60 million are sorteables (note A) and 40 million are consequently not sorteables (note B). The proportion of sorteables is thus 60% 0.6 (note p) and that of non-eligible to 40% 0,4 (note q). If the drawing of the sample is performed with discount, the frequency fn=X/n of individuals was observed on the sample has to mathematical expectancy p and for gap-type npq/. It is sought to designate a representative sample (note n) which has a percentage of chance to be representative of the population N called confidence interval (note c). We cannot know with certainty the exact value that will take each item drawn within the confidence interval, that is why it employs an interval length (noted t) which is a measure of the uncertainty on the actual position of the true value of the parameter estimates. With these assumptions and applying the weak law of large numbers, the following formula will allow us to determine the sufficient sample size n: We know p (0.6) and q ( 0.4 ). We must set c has our liking. We want an interval equal to 99 %. To find t, it refers to the table of the binomial distribution, or to simplify, has the table of the normal law: for that the sample has 99% of chance to be in the confidence interval, it must take t= 2.33 . By applying the formula one obtains 13029,3 . For a population of 100 million inhabitants, of which 60 million sorteables, it must pull 13030N(people for having a 99% chance a representative sample was 99 %. If we drop these thresholds at 96% (for c) and 96% (for t) either t= 1.75 , one obtains n= 459.3 . With a sample of 460 people, we will be able to represent the 60 million sorteables with 96% of representativeness and with 96% chance that this representativeness is effective. Illustration 5: representativeness and weak law of large numbers, an example. 50 2.33∗√ 0.6∗0.4n⩽1-, 990.6∗0.4n≤( 0,012,33 )2n≥ 13029,3 T√pq/n≤1-c. 2. The hardware operation or the black box of the draw 2.4The confirmation and the margin of maneuver
We have seen that after the draw in itself, the potential bouleutes has had to submit to the docimasie which corresponds to a measure of control of the procedure ex post that we can call confirmation (Delannoi 2003). The latter is an additional injection of determinism within the random procedure. However, it has a particular character in relation to the checks carried out before and during the procedure in the sense that it can have a retroactive effect. In affirming or reversing a elected by lot, outgoing advisers will leave the possibility of a change that the random has produced. In theory, one can imagine printouts without confirmation, but the procedural blocks concrete that we met in politics seem to be almost never free. The confirmation takes several forms non-exclusive that you can enter by using a series of four criteria, without pretension to completeness: 1.Formal confirmation or substantial. The first case returns for example has the practice of conscription by drawing during which only the name of the person concerned must be confirmed. The second is located between other during the docimasie of bouleutes. The Council may ask any question that seemed pertinent, i.e. enter into a substantive examination of the characteristics of the candidate. 2.Confirmation simple or complex. This criterion is at best illustrated by an example: during the Italian renaissance, the Doge of Venice was elected at the end of a procedural block containing 12 steps mixing votes, prints and exams (Boursin 1991). It is what we might call a complex process. A single confirmation is located for example in the case of a procedural block in which the draw is the only step (a lottery for a place of university for example). 3.Confirmation passive or active. In some cases, for example when the draw for a jury of citizens, the chosen must confirm their desire to participate. In others they have been fetched, as is the case in the judicial panels. 4.Confirmation internal or external. In the first case are the chosen them-even which confirm their election. In the second, a body is responsible for this task. 51 Chapter 1: a typology of the prize draw 2.4 .2margin of maneuver of participants Beyond the confirmation step and when the item in game is a post distributed has a person, the latter has, if it is selected, a certain margin of maneuver which influence its control over the procedure and seems to be able to take three forms, of which the first is the refusal (Elster 1990,78 ). When the draw for the juries french judicial, the participation of citizens is mandatory (Roumier & Decocq 2003) even though there are a few exceptions. Conversely, many prints are optional. This distinction is, as we shall see in the following chapters, fundamental when interest is to the achievement of the expectations of the authors who write on the draw. Secondly, the contestation. In central Sardinia, the distribution of the lots of inheritance is done by means of a draw (Carosso 1987, 286) which the children should participate. However, each heir has the right to challenge the result of the drawing up to three times. Thirdly, the replacement. In the context of the conscription by draw which took place in France in the nineteenth century, the persons elected had the right to find a replacement (Bohigas 1968). 2.5Conclusion
We can now better understand what is happening inside the black box of the circulation: it is located in the presence of an indeterminate time, of a blind estate, carefully surrounded by mechanisms for regulating its content random. Even if it is impossible to list exhaustively all these mechanisms, a chronological distribution of the procedure allows you to get an idea of the possibilities of ex ante control by the fixing of the pool of options and sorteables, ex post, by means of the confirmation and the margin of maneuver, but also so far in the same time of the drawing, the palos, by the means of the weighting, in quotas and formalization. If using the example of the ball we realize as well that it was a massive draw, with a threshold of qualification relatively low, a draw pure and formalized through a dedicated instrument, the kleroteria. The confirmation about it was substantial, simple and passive. The learned the fate had apparently little room to maneuver: they could not challenge the result of the drawing or find a substitute. We had 52 2. The hardware operation or the black box of the draw Therefore well case has a particular type of palos and cleros that the actors of then had constructed so aware and which was probably the result of an intense discussion. It seems high time to take an interest in the " great legislators " on ladies has Montesquieu and immerse in the context of the intellectual procedures of drawing. Illustration 6: The random moment or Palos is surrounded by precautions deterministic and intentional aimed a check the procedure and whittle away the contents of the random draw. 3. The draw in context: the intellectual operation " The random procedures in the culture are at the same time hardware manipulations and strategies intellectual ≪ (Molino 1987, 141). In political practice, all kleros takes place in a context which gives him its foundations and discursive determines in large part its form. The actors develop strategies "intellectual " on first by building elevator pitches pro- or anti-draw it is-a-say by creating a regime of justification (3.1 ). In parallel they tend to interpret the procedures they employ and their results; it discerns the presence of a regime for reception (3.2 ). Justification and interpretation are combined in the form of frames anything economically exploitable (3.3 ). 53 Chapter 1: a typology of the prize draw 3.1The justification, or the reasons of the draw " If social innovations are a functional prerequisite of society, so are normative patterns bestowing legitimacy upon thesis innovations. Man cannot just act; he must be capable of giving reasons for his actions. And he must be capable of giving reasons before he acts. ≪ Aubert (1959, 10). The concept of justification refers to the question of " why " on the selection procedures: what is it that pushes the actors has to want to organize the prints? The participants has support the procedure or on the contrary has the challenge? We are going here - on the basis of an enumeration of inductive type27 - seek the discursive elements surrounding the draw, the " reasons for " and the " reasons against ≪ (Engelstad, 1989)28. The " normative justifications for the drawings " (Elster 1987, 159) and the normative patterns (cf. highlights) advanced by the proponents and the objections raised by their detracteurs29. These arguments are not intrinsically true or false, they are fair mobilized by the actors in the political arena. For example, say that the drawing allows the mathematical equality of participants is not true if the pull is done on the basis of quotas. 3.1.1 Equality, fairness and justice The argument pro-main draw which is the most recurrent but also the most complex concerning equality and its variations in the form of equity and justice (Goodwin 2005, 44). The equality can be understood as procedural, that is-a-say that the drawing gives the same chance has all the participants or as substantial if the draw allows an effective equality after the procedure when the drawing is repeated and that each item (batch, person or decision) eventually be chosen over the long term (Goodwin 1984, 195). This reasoning also implies that each draw is unequal in a certain sense, since paradoxically, absolute equality that would accrue a division in equal share is replaced by an equal chance because at the end some of the candidates obtain the item and other non (Elster 1987, 27The list incorporated in this paragraph relies mainly on the work of Buchstein (2009a), Delannoi (2010), Elster (1987), Engelstad (1989), Goodwin (2005), Schmidt (2000) and Sintomer (2007). 28Goodwin (2005, 51) speaks of " theoretical arguments for and against using sortition as the basis for social distribution. ≪ Buchstein (2009a, 295) of " funktionalen argued fur und gegen Lotterien. ≪ 29This regime of justification is well on this for all of the selection procedures. Cf. Kornhauser & Sager (1988, 484). 54 3. The draw in context: the intellectual operation 128)30. Thus, if the money is to be distributed by drawing a social housing there will be, during the first cleros, a procedural equality between the candidates wishing to obtain but a substantial inequality since only one person will obtain the well (instead of the share between all this which would create a substantial equality). On the other hand, if it repeats each week the drawing with the same candidates, on the long term, everyone will get (in theory) the housing and it will tend toward a substantial equality. From a justice perspective, the argument is that the drawing allows you to create all parts an equality which does not pre in order to eliminate any perceived differences as injustes31. The draw does not know as well the wishes, needs and the merits of participants (Goodwin 2005, 56) and rule by the same the delicate problem of the concrete measure of such magnitudes. During a review, one is forced to resort to a battery of criteria in order to differentiate which of A or B is more deserving. But perform the measurement may prove particularly tedious or even impossible (Broome 1984). Use the draw allows you to make a clean sweep. Such a vision is of course highly polemic and returns has two opposing concepts of social justice, with on one side a liberal vision in which the latter takes the form of equity (justice geometric of Aristotle) is-a-say " from each, according to its contribution " (Elster 1987, 170). In the eyes of the proponents of this vision, the printout may be assimilated to a " denial of humanity " on32. Other authors argue, however, that a system based on merit actually strengthens the inequalities caused by birth, the greatest of all loteries33. To correct this situation and establish a greater justice, it is based to redistribute periodically the social roles. By using a prize draw, we can introduce the 30 The only alternative here would be to not choose or distribute. 31In this context, the drawing is put in place, " weil die doch naturlich bestehenden Unterschiede keine Rolle Maxxi spielen+lernen sollen) for ≪ (Schmidt 2000, 364). When on the other hand the differences do indeed play no role or do not exist, it may refer to a rational argument, " weil sie de facto keine Rolle Maxxi spielen+lernen " on. This argument is repeated more than bottom in the form of the rationality of second order (see 3.1.4 , p. 58). 32Wolfle (1970, 1201) : " It is a denial of man's humanity; each man is reduced to a cipher, distinguished from other ciphers only by the uniqueness of the combination of digits that identify his records. ≪ 33Goodwin (1984, 192): " However, the problem for liberalism is that the biggest chance distribution of all takes place when we are born and is beyond our control - the distribution of health, beauty, intelligence and other natural endowments. In societies where a strong class system operates, social status can also be regarded as a 'natural' endowment. Under these circumstances, a merit-based system of social justice straighten merely to reinforce natural advantages disadvantages gold. ≪ 55 Chapter 1: a typology of the prize draw Justice the or there was not avant34. More than that, we can achieve a distributive equality ex ante in the form of the equal division of chances35. In summary: " This can be simply stated: if the structure of society is partly or wholly determined in certain respects and necessarily entails inequalities (I. e. different roles with different intrinsic values and/or different rewards attached to them), and if people are more equal than are the roles (I. e. roles and rewards are highly differentiated, people less so) injustice will result from any ounce-for-all distribution. In such a case, justice related in a repeated chance allocation and re-allocation of individuals to the various roles with their concomitant rewards " (Goodwin 1984, 193). However this justice - procedural on the short term and noun in the long term - is done in depends on a justice based on merit. The debate concerning the character of the flattening drawing has often been put forward by the opponents of the drawing, for example by Socrates in his commentary on the choice of rulers by the Faba bean and it is probably, from a historical point of view, the debate the more keen on the draw from the antiquity athenienne36. It is also around this character levelling frame that is focused and is still focusing the debate concerning the draw in his report has democracy as we will see ulterieurement37.
During a draw, it is impossible to know which batch will be assigned a who, what decision will be finally taken, who will be chosen. If defenders and critics of the drawing are in agreement on this fact, he did not draw the same conclusions. For the first, the unpredictability makes the strategic calculations on the procedure much more difficult and expensive, this has the advantage of reducing the incentives to bribe as well as the manipulations designed to influence the outcome, making the drawing a perfect tool to fight against the factions (Lockard 2003a ; Vergne 2006) because of the prints and successive independent eliminate any schema. Such a lack of predictability pushes the detractors of the draw has criticize his character " arbitrary " on which " exposes people to a high degree of risk and uncertainty " (Goodwin (2005, 78). It is by the-same incompatible with a vision of human action based on the volun34 " Randomness appears to be a way of bringing some fairness into an inherently unfair situation " (Broome 1984, 40). Of synthetic manner: " The justification for adopting the lottery as a distributive procedure resets on the choice of equality as the proper basis for socially just distribution. ≪ (Goodwin 2005, 122). 35Kornhauser & Sager (1988) and Wasserman (1996) have developed this point in detail. 36According to the words of Socrates reported by Xenophon: " It is madness to choose with a broad bean the magistrates of a republic, while nobody would like to use a pilot designated by the Faba bean, or an architect, or a player of flute, nor any of these men, whose sins are yet much less harmful than the errors of those who govern States " (Xenophon, memorable, I. 2.9 ). 37See Chapter 3. See also Dowlen (2008a, 218-219) 56 3. The draw in context: the intellectual operation TE: " People become passive containers of equal chances rather than active seekers of equal opportunities " (Fishkin 1983, 112). Thus subjected to the FTAA, the human beings are being hindered in their freedom, especially when the draw concerns of significant items such as the entrance to the university and when the possibility exists to pull several times on a ticket perdant38. The proponents argue that the introduction of a non-cumulation or rotation of mandates or batches distributed eliminate this possibility.
The economy of time and resources is often mentioned as a reason for recourse to the cleros (Broome 1984, 40; Delannoi 2010, 18; Schmidt 2000, 367). A drawing appears - ceteris paribus - quicker and easier than an examination procedure, to market or to vote. We could resume here the example of the blue car: the decision to bifurcate may be taken in organizing a debate with the other passengers on the direction to take, or more quickly by pulling a stack or face. More generally, the argument of economy has been defended by the current of the rational choice (rational choice theory) in the following form: it is rational to use a draw when the cost of classification of alternatives exceeds the benefit from choose the one which is actually the best (Bunting 2006, 168). Therefore the draw allows you to solve the problem of the cost of the marginal information. This reasoning has been pushed to its extreme by proponents of the theory of public choice who have argued for the benefit of decision-making draw, as we will see ulterieurement39. The argument of economy also comes in the form of accuracy, Treffsicherheit40, since the drawing does not produce - as we have seen - of equality between the options. There is no zero match possible and after the prize draw each is fixed on its fate. False economies! Declare its detractors. The draw, driven in reality of hidden costs because it ignores the deliberation and discussion (Buchstein 2000, 99). It does not solve the causes of conflict but only their symptoms. A decision coming from the outside and without consultation of stakeholders provides a fertile ground for conflict. In addition, the economy of means does not prevent that we should select the pool of sorteables. 38Boyle (2010) reports of cases of repeated refusal has the entry of universities which illustrate well this criticism. 39See chapter 2, 4.2 , p. 107 et seq. 40Schmidt (2000, 367): " Was immer das Problem, die Entscheidung ... the ist. Sind die Wurfel einmal gefallen, wissen went unmittelbar Beteiligten', was nun zu tun oder welches hpc Los ist. ≪ 57 Chapter 1: a typology of the prize draw And as long as a y be, as much directly choose the best. But this is not all, the drawing also entails costs for the society as a whole by a suboptimale allocation of resources. A distribution of jobs by a lottery, such as the one presented by Goodwin (2005), may thus lead to the consequence that a talented individual in a domain, for example a great physicist, pulled a ticket of orchestra leader. In this case, the company loses a good physicist and will not earn any good orchestra leader (Engelstad 1989, 32). 3.1.4 Rationality of second order " In pester France reinsten Form erscheint das Auxiliarmotiv beim Losen. Wer durch Einsicht nicht mehr imstande ist, sich fur eine von mehreren Handlungsweisen zu entscheiden, kann das Los zur Hilfe rufen, oder, was dasselbe ist, in formloser Weise erklaren, er killed eben " irgend etwas. ≪ (Neurath 1913, 63). The draw might be a central tool of metarationalite. For Neurath (1913, 63), the cleros is the purest form of a " auxiliary reason ", that is, a procedure that allows you to take a decision in a framework or lack any rational basis for decision. It allows you to exceed the " pseudo-rationality " (Neurath) also called " hyper-rationality " by Elster (1989), for which, ignore the " limits of reason " on returns has to submit a " ritual " on of the reason. Recognize the borders of rationality should motivate the use of the draw in certain situations that Elster identified using the four criteria non-cumulative: the insecurity, the indifference, the indeterminacy and the incommensurabilite. The opposition has this vision relative to the rationality focuses on the fact that a draw represents in fact " an abdication of moral responsibility " (Bellioti 1980, 255). But also, and especially, that the there is a risk of opening the Pandora's box: the area of the rationality of first order risk to disappear in favor of a system as depicted by Borges (1944) in its fable on the lottery has Babylon in which the draw ends by directing all the social interactions. Indeed, why bother to find reasons to act if the pull can we fully exonerated from any responsibility? HAS see limits on the rationality everywhere, there is a risk to submit to the arbitrary control of the random. The draw despises the rational choice and moral judgment individual ; it is " an act of the most despicable cowardice ≪ (Godwin 1793, VI, Chap. 10). 58 3. The draw in context: the intellectual operation 3.1.5 Externalities At a draw, no one is responsible for the choice made. It is a consequence of the random moment. This argument is defended in two main forms: those in which " person " on does the choice and that in which " someone outside ", that is to say a God for example, is responsible for this choice. This second case is interesting because it denies the principle even of gambling within the procedure for the reduce has an intentional decision external. However, the argument exists and the draw has been used frequently for the precise reason that it allowed to leave the choice has a power superieure41. In the case where this externalities is " person " on, the organizers cannot be made responsible for the choice, nor the elected bragging about it. The " fate is a way to elect that has afflicted person ; it left has every citizen a reasonable expectation to serve his fatherland ≪ said Montesquieu (the Spirit of Laws, II, 2). And everything has a time, " sortition eliminates the feeling of entitlement that comes from election or selection by merit " (Goodwin 1992, 20). It protects and limited to the time the ego of participants, cut the link of responsibility. The latter contribution of the drawing may be crucial in the context of tragic decisions when there is a desire that no person should be made responsible for example when it comes to the selection of the deckhand who must be eaten. The externalities can be view as particularly debilitating, because it eliminates any possibility of accountability. In addition, they are not the best items that are chosen but well any whom: the qualities and individual faults are ignored. The supporters of the draw note, however, that the votes, reviews or mass markets lead to the same result: in such frameworks, the individual character is lost in the whole.
41This reason is related to a mode of interpretation of the random, as we will see later (cf. infra, p. 64). 42" We know by experience that the so-called regimes of fate and bag confer a better life, a regime and an administration more healthy from towns and cities that the other schemes which are characterized by the election, because they are more continuous and egalitarian, peaceful and detached from the passions. ≪ Cited in Nels (1972, 132). Personal Translation. 59 Chapter 1: a typology of the prize draw The printout does not takes part for person since he is not gifted with a own determination. It is neutral, outside the passions and human manipulation. The argument of impartiality has been presented by Dowlen (2008a, 15) in the form of a-rationality and by Stone (2009a, 377) in the form of the effect hand sanitiser. At a draw, the reasons (good or bad) not to count more. In systemic terms, the printout appears then dispose of a large " procedural autonomy " (Buchstein 2009a, 299) which gives him great benefits when one wants to make sure that bad (or good) reasons do not influence the choice. The time of loss of control on the procedure at the heart of the drawing makes the attempts of manipulation lapse and the procedure is therefore strategy proof, unlike its rivals: the actors earn nothing has adopt a strategic position hiding their actual preferences being data that these are not taken into account, not more than the preferences exprimees43. This justification of impartiality seems to have been particularly important in the Italian republics of the renaissance (Dowlen 2008a, 134) but also in the Aragon of Ferdinand II (cf. highlights). However, the impartiality returns has ignore the needs and merits which can be regarded as the base of the equity (Goodwin 2005, 56). It causes even a bias in favor of the mathematical equality because it ignores the capacity of some members of society: " In times of battle gold catastrophe, a triage officer exclusive tea ill and wounded who most need, and who are most likely to respond favorably" would be inserted to prompt medical attention. A physician is surely more competent than a pair of dice to make such decisions and to determine which patients should be given access to limited medical resources " (Wolfle 1970, 1201). In addition, the drawing does that " hide " on the one-sided decision. In effect, for its detractors, it does not render the choice impartial, but moves the time of bias, as the stressed Brown (2005, 8) : " Casting lots is deceptive because, although lotteries purport to be random, they are frequently preceded by by non-random decisions that result in important distributional effects that the lottery masks. ≪ As well, using the example of the Italian Renaissance, it may be noted that the prize draw will be made on closed lists of notables of the city excluding a priori the poorest. 43The term strategy proof is predominantly employed by proponents of the theory of public choice. For details, see chapter 2, 4.2 , p. 107. 60 3. The draw in context: the intellectual operation 3.1.7 Rotation " We do not consider less fort top talent to know also obey and order ; and it is in this double perfection of command and obedience that we place ordinarily the supreme virtue of the citizen. " On Aristotle (Politics, III-2). In the context of repeated prints on a same population and for a same item, the draw resulted in a rotation of items or lots which may be regarded as a means of distributive justice and to fight against the monopolization of power. The rotation caused by a draw repeat also has the consequence of reducing the incentives to the conspiracy (Engelstad 1989, 30) given that the conspirators of today have a chance to become the leaders of tomorrow. The rotation gives as well body has the Aristotelian ideal to govern and to be governed in turn (cf. highlights). An important consequence of this aspect is that the rulers and the haves, more generally the decision makers, are pushed to take account of the position of their fellow citizens because they themselves will be subject to the decisions taken, according to a principle of reciprocity reflexive (Goodwin 2005, 124): " submit to what you choose and choose only that to which you yourself would willingly submit ". Finally, when the leaders are drawn at random, they cannot form a political class and monopolize power, recurring theme that we will address in detail in chapter 3. This potential of the draw in fact for some procedure a reject because it causes instability of the social and political system. The people drawn at random will feel less responsible to the company and if they cannot be corrupted before their accession to power, they are more likely to be after since they were not of auditors has make. In addition, a draw does not ensure that the best would come to power: " Every thing ought to be open; goal not indifferently to every man. No rotation; no appointment by lot; no mode of election operating in the spirit of sortition gold rotation, can be normalement bas good in a government conversant in extensive objects. Because they have no tendency', direct or indirect, to select the man with a view to the duty, or to accommodate the one to the other. ≪ (Burke 1790, 92). 3.1.8 Constitution of a representative sample We have seen that a draw multiple allows you to get a sample more or less representative (cf. 2.3.3 ,p. 49). The drawing is then think " as a means to select, a sort of microcosm which can nodding, evaluate, judge and possibly decide on behalf of the community, 61 Chapter 1: a typology of the prize draw The or not all can take part in the deliberation and or the social heterogeneity forbidden to believe that all individuals are interchangeable " (Sintomer 2007, 138). The obtaining of such a sample is also has the work when it comes to justify the remedy has a draw for achieving an opinion poll. This reason revet a modern character in the direction or the possibility of thinking the drawing as a tool for creating a representative sample has been able to develop that with the discovery of the " geometry of chance " (Schwartz 1993, 18; cf. infra, 3.2.1 , p. 64)44. Numbers of modern defenders of the draw consider this justification - we will see in the following chapters - as the heart of the argument in favor of the use of such a method of selection in politics. The detractors of the prize draw were not opposed to front has this justification for a reason quite evident: with the current mathematical, it is impossible to refute the character more or less representative of a sample drawn at sort45. It is rather, as we shall see, on the meaning to be given to the concept of representation that concentrates the criticism.
Under this term is hiding a reason quite paradoxical: the use of a draw is brandished in order that the potential participants opt for another method of choice. A good illustration is that of the right of custody of children, livŕee by Mnookin (1975, 290) : " The effect on negotiation would depend on each parent's risk preferences and on how much each wanted the child. Because each parent would face a 50 per cent chance of losing, this might encourage private compromised if both wanted the child and were very risk-averse " on. A form particularly radical for this reason plays a role in the practice of the decimation46 : the soldiers are forced to fight without restraint because a defeat means the holding of a decimation on which they have no control, unlike the one they may have during a fight. A final declination of the procedural prevention is one in which the instigators of the draw want to produce a spill-over effects on other decisions. Goodwin (2005, 210-211) reports as well the case of the death-lottery organized by the detainees in several Brazilian prisons in 1985. These der44Manin (1996, 59) put forward the hypothesis that the Greeks had suspected already of this possibility. 45In the past this opposition at the draw was able to be the desire to resort instead to the " wise choice " on to constitute samples. In 1925, the international statistical institute still hinting the draw or the wise choice as the two methods of constitution of a sample (Schwartz 1993, 32). This last was in fact has a review carried out by the persons responsible to constitute the sample. 46The decimation was a practice of the Roman army which consisted of a pull to the fate, following a defeat, a legionnaire on ten which was then set to death by his companions. 62 3. The draw in context: the intellectual operation Niers threatened to - and eventually - kill several of their fellow inmates was the result of a draw in order to protest against their deplorable living conditions. The choice of this instrument was designed explicitly to show the injustice of the situation, its irrationality. The employment of a vote or a review based on the law of the strongest would probably not had the same effet47. For his detractors this reason is another form of the rationality of second order and constitutes just as it an abdication of reason before the random and its arbitrary. She cannot argue further that in the case where one presupposes the human beings as having a significant aversion against risk. In reality, it may well be a fact that the parents of the previous example take the risk of losing custody of their child through a lottery, or even that while being hostile to risk, they consider their chances of success more high at a draw that through another procedure (Duxbury 1999, 129-130) or want avoid a long and arduous negotiation (Mnookin 1975, 291). 1.3.10 Heuristic Value The drawing can also be justified in a very simple manner by its heuristic value which allows its instigator to discover his real preference but unconscious (Duxbury 1999, 159). And when you do not know spontaneously if the we should go at the restaurant or at the cinema, we can achieve a draw and to realize that the result is not good for us. It was then able to tell the actual preference which existed before but was not articulated. For critics of the draw, this argument is rejected because it corresponds to a selflessness of reason and of the capacity of human beings to choose in knowledge of causes and suite has a reflection su the in-game options.
Because at a draw each of the sorteables obtains a probability to be chosen, the draw played a role inclusive symbolic and real (Gohler 2010, 99). In Renaissance Florence, the candidates to the offices were chosen by drawing lots after a process of nomination48. During this last some names of candidates were eliminated of lists by 47This assumption would be a check. However, it is known that following these events, the government took a series of important measures and that he did on the other hand virtually nothing after the Carandiru massacre which provoked in 1992 the death of 111 prisoners, killed by the police during the assault of the prison (Hilbig 2006) and during which detainees had expressed so " classic " (combat and hostage). 48Elster (1987, 140). For a similar argument, see Dowlen (2008a, 95). 63 Chapter 1: a typology of the prize draw Nominateurs and were not included in the bags to draw in a secret vote. The excluded do not therefore knew not that they were out-game and continued reasonably to believe in their chance of getting a job, which reinforced their symbolic inclusion in the city. Those who were actually chosen were included in fact. The detractors of the prize draw consider that not only this effect remains greatly symbolic, but it means in reality that the draw excluded in fact all non-selected without apparent reason and therefore in an arbitrary manner. 3.2The receipt, or the interpretations of the draw Of the same that the actors argue for or against the draw, they interpret the latter and the stowed in the broader framework of their vision of the world. To understand the procedure, it is therefore imperative to discern in every job the place that the respective corporation gives the concept of random, often called random in this case, which is the heart of the prize draw. If the stain is beyond the scope of this work, however, it seems possible to open a few tracks of reflections. So very schematic, it seems that the accident has been up to now interpreted in three main directions: manner of finalist, deterministic and probabilistic (3.2.1 ) which can have important implications on the existence and the probability of the establishment of schemes to draw in practice policy (3.2.2 ). 3.2 .1The modes of interpretation of the random " As Well if introduced necessarily in the analysis the system of thought which is ours and we have the problem of the validity of our clipping: what we call random appears-it itself as such in the eyes of those whose we analyze the practices and institutions? ≪ (Molino 1987, 137). Molino rightly pointed out that interest has of practices of drawing requires to take into account " the meaning of chance " that is to say the interpretative dimension of subjective what is the random, of " conceptual schemes " on helping to understand " how the random is lived " on. The literature tends to distinguish three broad categories of interpretation. The first could be characterized of finalist and corresponds to cases in which the random is inter64 3. The draw in context: the intellectual operation Ready " as the revelation of the will of God " on49. The actors do not conceive simply not the existence of a lack of causality, they see in a draw the intentional decision of one or several Gods or Destin50. This is an interpretation which linked the chance has the purpose and which excluded the blind estate. It is thus that we can understand the character of the Roman goddess Fortuna - Tyche in Greece - which under the guise of the random fact and defeated the human destiny (cf. illustration 7, p. 65). In the second scheme, qualified by Molino " scheme of the causal imputation ≪, the actors are trying to reassemble the causal chains of any event. If dimension finalist, in the center of the reception mode precedent, is less present in this type of interpretation, it remains that the shuffle is perceived of deterministic way: one can understand the coincidence and its result in dating the causal series; everything is a question of knowledge (Ekeland 1991, 14). Finally, a third category of interpretation corresponds to this that Moscovici (1991, 11) calls the " social representation of the random based on the chaos " on that he opposed has one based on the destiny which we treat previously. It is a reception " probabilistic random ≪ (Bromberger & Ravis 1987, 129) which is based on the idea of a world fundamentally undetermined which cannot be apprehend only in terms of probability and statistics, in which the chance has a value in itself. Most of the authors instruct the three schemes argumentatifs on a time scale which would begin with a vision strongly religious of the random, based on an interpretation finalist and deterministic. Thus, Eckhoff (1989, 18) argues: " No doubt, the official interpretation of …lotteries in ancient Israel was that decisions were left to god. This ≪ dominant vision began to crumble in the 18th century, time at which " two visions of the world opposed …seem to separate " on. There are still " on one side a world full of meaning, or the random is never the simple application of a principle of probability but always a sign of a destiny, that divination ... is given for stain to read. However ≪, emerged from the other side " a world full of 49Elster (1987, 117): " We should consider, finally, a very different interpretation of selection by lot as the revelation of God's will. ≪ 50 Elster (1987, 173): " To have it both ways, we can tie our decision tb natural causality in the hope that it will reflect some underlying purpose or pattern in the universe, such as fate, God's will, however the natural interconnections among all things. ≪ See also Aubert (1959) or Bromberger & Ravis (1987, 130). 65
Chapter 1: a typology of the prize draw Science or the chance is that the likely, or contingency, the accidental are only illusions, demonstrations of oddly logical which remain a discover ≪ (Bromberger & Ravis 1987, 129). This new reception was born with the invention of the " geometry of chance ", that is to say the statistics, by scientists such as Pascal51 but - even before these advanced mathematics - in the course of considerable controversy on the concepts of luck, chance, fortune, of drawing including a central step has been crossed by Gataker who in his book of the Nature and Uses of Lots proposed the division follows: " God does not determines the events that in the most general sense: the fall of a of is not more providential that the sunrise and the role of God is not greater in the accidental events that in The events constant and necessary. " On such a design " neutralized well the coincidence, which then becomes liable to a scientific analysis: the track is open for the calculation of probabilities " (Molino 1987, 138). The latter is indeed develop little by little and the random receives a definition of less and less finalist up has eventually become the famous " meeting of series independent causal ≪. However, just as the interpretation previously mentioned, the approach " not consequentialist " is based on the idea of a deterministic world and the goal then becomes to reassemble the causal series. In this approach, the chance is reduced has a lack of knowledge which pushes Laplace (1812, 177) has write: " We attribute the phenomena which seem to us arrive and will succeed without any order has of the causes variables and hidden, whose action has been designated by the word random, word which is at the bottom as the expression of our ignorance. ≪52 Such a vision was spreading rapidly in the 19th century and becomes a dominant mode of reception of the aleatoire53. Which Mode is however quickly criticized by scientists such as Heisenberg and its principle of indeterminacy before being supplanted in the 20th century by an interpretation of the random that we appoint probabiliste54 previously. This receipt seems to be become the most widespread in the western world (Buchstein 2009a, 230) and is opposed strongly enough to the two 51On this development, see Schwartz (1993, 17). 52Voltaire expressed the same idea when he wrote: " We know that the accident is nothing. We invented this word to express the known effect of any unknown cause " (Voltaire 1766, XIII). 53We found this time intuitions great. And Godwin (1793) who note: " Strictly speaking, we know of no such thing as contingency. Purpose, so far as recounted to the exercise of apprehension and judgment on the perticular question to be determined, all decision by lot is the decision of contingency. ≪ While keeping within a deterministic vision of the random, it seems enter the indeterminate character of the draw. 54Brown (2005, 24): " In modern times, the general perception of the batch as a method of discerning God's intentions has been replaced by a more analytically critical interpretation of casting lots and of randomization as merely one of several decision-making devices. ≪ 66 3. The draw in context: the intellectual operation Others, such as the note Ekeland (1991, 63): " It is therefore the probability model that appears to be the antithesis of the deterministic model. Two of them, they are the poles between which oscillates our understanding of the world: a measure that the we are moving away from the one, we are getting closer to the other. A world strictly non-deterministic must be perfectly probabilistic. ≪ It poses however a particular problem, of " second-order " in the direction or the statistics themselves are subject has interpretation55. This very fast sweep and succinct of the reception and social epistemological of the random does certainly not to understand or to trace evolutions and complexities of the perception of chance in human societies in its complexity. It allows however to advance the minimum assumption that random chance can be interpreted very varied ranging from a vision finalist has a probabilistic vision in passing by a deterministic vision which has consequences for the use of the draw in politics. 3.2 .2Consequences of the perception of the chance on schemes of drawing The taking into account of the subjective vision (at the level of the individual and societal) of chance plays an important role not only on the design (engineering) of the hardware operation but also on the construction of the speech of justification for the use of the draw. This is particularly true when the deterministic interpretation fits in conflict with the probabilistic interpretation. So it goes to the possibility even of resort has a draw at a procedure of choice. It is only to remind the religious controversies on the permitted uses or non-of the draw conducted by Thomas Aquinas or Gataker for which there were legal prints because they were not asking for the intervention of God in human affairs and other illegal because they would require, under the guise of coincidence, a divine intervention. This vision of the draw had therefore directly influence its use. The same when games of chance were banned in a large number of countries at the turn of the 19th century for reasons of morality and negative interpretation of the drawing (Goodwin 2005). Many authors go further and hypothesize that the reception is a factor explaining even the appearance and disappearance of schemes based on the drawing. And Goodwin (2005, 170) note: " Religious belief and the work ethic have united to generate year opposition to lotteries which can still, at times, be virulent ≪. Elster (1987, 158) for its part wrote: " Batch55For Details on these differences, see the texts of Stone (2010) and Wasserman (1996, 30). 67 Chapter 1: a typology of the prize draw Batteries are more common when they can be interpreted as the expression of God's will. ... Thus understood, the outcome of a lottery is not a random event goal the result of year intentionnelle act. ≪ On a more general level, Thomas (1971, 790) also considers that one of the causes of the decline of the practices of divination based on the printout is a change in the perception of chance in the form of greater tolerance vis-a-vis the indetermination56. These assumptions would require additional research but seem intuitively reasonable under two conditions. First, the three types of interpretation (finalist, deterministic, probabilistic) are not exclusive. Very often in the reality a reception is probabilistic mixture has a life expectancy of type deterministic. So trivial, the loto is often accompanied by rituals designed to " force the chance " (Ricciardone 1987, 330-334). And more generally, fortuitous events but notable are interpreted as signs of the destiny or as a consequence of a own action then even that they are the result of a draw perfectly and officially aleatoire57. It is also what could explain that a draw mathematically equiprobable could not be perceived as such (Tversky & Kahneman 1974, 1124). Secondly, the different perceptions of the prize draw are not strictly chronological. If the " concept of the mathematical probability " on was well abroad to the Athenians, and that they could not think in terms of " statistical probability " on58, it remains that most analysts today to say that they did not use the cleros as tool of revelation of the will of the gods but rather as a tool of secular political and that they had developed an interpretation of the civil hasard59. More generally, it is certainly true that the current science is largely based on a probabilistic interpretation of the accident and that the divination in the middle ages was based on a vision strongly finalist and deiste of chance. But this last category has not disappeared by the magic of the 56Thomas (1971, 790): " One cause of the decline of magic in the late is the editor of seventeenth century was the increased ability to tolerate ignorance, which has been defined as an essential characteristic of the scientific attitude. ≪ 57On this point, see the articles by Lerner & Miller (1978) and Rubin & Peplau (1973) on the reactions of conscripts by drawing which blame themselves the result even though the latter was random it is-a-say independent from them. 58Buchstein (2009a, 105) : " In unserem heutigen mathematischen Verstandnis wirkungsvoll begegnen wir dem 'Zufall of Loses' mit einer statistischen Wahrscheinlichkeitsannahme. Zufallig kann nur etwas, das against Kausalitat unterliegt …den damaligen Athenern war sharps Konzept der mathematischen fremd which it is concluded. ≪ 59 On this point see the discussions among non deviant subcultures (1927, 1462), Staveley (1972, 56), Dowlen (2008a, 33-34) or Buchstein (2009a, 87 and 104-108). It is interesting to note that the discussion on the reception of the draw by the former has itself reflects several interpretations of the random phenomenon. As well up to the end of the 19th century, historians of ancient Greece interpreted the drawing greek before just as a religious phenomenon before that other historians argue an interpretation based on a random civilian. 68 3. The draw in context: the intellectual operation Discovery of statistics and many schemes of current draw are always interpreted according to a religious line or at least morale60. 3.3The existence of anything economically exploitable frames The previous developments have allowed us to identify the part of the intellectual operations of drawing of theoretical manner. In reality, however, the reasons for the draw just as its interpretation are mixed in an infinite number of constellations and it would be necessary, to understand each employment, to trace the debates and the reactions of the actors. This approach has already been carried out for some historical cases such as ancient Greece or the Italian cities medieval61 but the history of a large number of uses concrete remains yet to be written. Beyond these case studies, however, the question arises whether it is possible to detect regularities in the combination of some arguments pro- or against-drawing which would form the " figures anything economically exploitable ≪ (Buchstein 2009a, 295), of anything economically exploitable frames of justification and interpretation. This task has been undertaken regularly by a series of authors who have proposed typologies of draw in politics that we will focus now.
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