School of Business

POST-SCRIPTUM

Noul guvern al Moldovei a aprobat recent un program foarte cuprinzator de stabilizare si redresare economica a Moldovei pentru anii 2009-2011⁷⁰ axat pe trei prioritati:

1. 
   Stabilizarea si optimizarea finantelor publice;
   
2. 
   Re-lansarea activitatilor economice si
   
3. 
   Asigurarea unei protectii sociale eficiente si echitabile.
   

Este important ca Programul se bazeaza pe o analiza profunda a situatiei caracterizata drept “stagnare economica”, pe o apreciere realistica a surselor lui de implementare. Este incurajator deasmenea si faptul ca comunitatea internationala, dupa afirmarile lui Pierre Lellouche, Secretar de Stat pentru Afaceri Europene la ministernul de externe al Frantei, care a vizitat recent Chisinaul, a identificat circa $1.5 miliarde fonduri pentru Moldova destinati depasirii crizei economice si financiare. Inaltul demnitar European a promis deasemenea sustinerea eforturilor Moldovei de liberalizare a regimului de vize si de aderare la UE, de solutionare a conflictul Transnistrian⁷¹.

ABSTRACT

Forging new global alliances, new legal and institutional frameworks through international cooperation could lead to a solution for the 2007-2009 financial crisis by addressing the most vulnerable aspects of the current financial system and infrastructure: liquidity, which is at the heart of its(whose?) stability; trust and transparency with better disclosure of banks’ institutional arrangements for risk management, risk models and techniques, and consolidation of infrastructure of financial markets. At the same time, international cooperation, although difficult to achieve, could reduce the volatility and overall dependence of emerging markets on foreign-currency loans that are leading to more and more defaults. In this controversial search for solutions it is important not to slip towards the other extreme - de-globalization, not to erect a new “Berlin Wall” of protectionism that would separate advanced economies from their emerging counterparts. Group-20 leaders’ meetings in Washington (November 2008), London (April 2009) and Pitsburg, USA (September 2009 have started the move in the right direction with the inclusion of emerging markets in the Financial Stability Forum, agreement to provide more seats for emerging economies at the IMF and World Bank, increase their role in decision making process. But this is just the beginning of a long and difficult path towards the recovery of the world economy, strengthening the IMF role in policing financial issues, revamping financial regulation and restoring market confidence.

The author is investigating the impact of crisis to the post-communist emerging markets with a special focus on the former Soviet Union countries and particularly the case of Moldova from the prospects of economic and democratic reforms and its integration to the EU.

Dl. Ceslav Ciobanu a fost promovat recent in pozitia de profesor universitar, savant eminent al Universitatii de Stat din Virginia, SUA. El si-a facut doctoratul in economia politica la Universitatea de Stat M.Lomonosov din Moscova, Rusia, a fost unul din consilierii lui Mihail Gorbachev, ex-Presedintele URSS (1987-1991); consilier economic si sef adjunct in cabinetul primului Presedinte al Republicii Moldova Mircea Snegur (1992-1994), membru al guvernului Moldovei, ministrul privatizarii (1994-1997); adjunctul ministrului de externe (1998), Ambassador al Moldovei in Statele Unite ale Americii (1999-2002). Dupa terminarea serviciului sau diplomatic la Washington Dl. Ciobanu si-a reluat cariera academica in calitate de profesor de economie, cistigind burse importante la Centrul International de Savanti Woodrow Wilson (Woodrow Wilson Center for International Scholars), Fundatia Nationala pentru Democratie (National Endowment of Democracy) si Institutul Pacii al SUA (U.S. Institute of Peace). Dl. Ciobanu este autorul cartii “Conflictele inghetate si uitate din statele post-sovietice: geneza, economia politica si perspectivele solutionarii” (Frozen and Forgotten Conflicts in the Post-Soviet States: The Genesis, Political Economy and Prospects for Solutions) publicata de editura Columbia University Press in 2009 (http://cup.columbia.edu/book/978-0-88033-654-3/frozen-and-forgotten-conflicts-in-the-postsoviet-states) si a multor articole in jurnalele de specialitate si presa SUA, a Moldovei si cea internationala.

1Hayden Lane, 214 Trinkle Hall,

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1 Info-Prim, Chisinau, October 22, 2008

2 Guvernul moldovean spera ca, in pofida crizei, economia va creste in 2009. Imedia, Chisinau, 1 April 2009.

3 Infotag, Chisinau, October 7, 2009

4 Gomez, O., and Hallet, M. The impact of the global economic slowdown on remittance flows with a special focus on the EU, Brussels, December 19, 2008

5 Infotag, 20 October 2009

6 IPN, November 12, 2009

7 Moldovans the most unhappy people in the World, The Wall Street Journal. Aprilie 20, 2009.

8World Economic Outlook. Crisis and Recovery. International Monetary Fund, April 2009, pp.4, 9; IMF Tweaks Loan Program in Bid to Attract Borrowers, by Bob Davis. The Wall Street Journal, March 20, 2009.

9 Fixing finance. The Economist, April 5^th-11^th, 2008, p. 13.

10 Wolf, Martin. Fixing Global Finance. The John Hopkins University Press, 2008, pp.8-9.

11 The Economic Collapse, by Mark Levinson. Dissent, Winter 2009, p.62; ‘Nationalize’ the Banks. The weekend interview with Nouriel Roubini, by Tunku Varadarajan. The Wall Street Journal, February 21-22, 2009.

12 Some Advice for the G20, by Jim O’Neill, Goldman Sachs Global Economic paper No:181, March 20, 2009, pp.5,6.

13 I.M.F. Puts Losses From Crisis at $4.1 Trillion, by Mark Lander, The New-York Times, April 21, 2009; Economic decline in Quarter Exceeds Forecast, by Louis Uchitelle and Edmund Andrews, The New-York Times, April 29, 2009.

14 The Great Crash, 2008. A Geopolitical Setback for the West, by Roger C.Altman. Foreign Affairs, January/February 2009, p. 5.

15 The Aftermath of Financial Crises, by Carmen M.Reinhart and Kenneth S.Rogoff, December 19, 2008 www.economics.harvard.edu/faculty/rogoff/ff/files/Aftermath.pdf; Choices made in 2009 will shape the globe’s destiny, by Martin Wolf, The Financial Times, January 6, 2009

16 Reflating the dragon. The Economist, November 15^th – 21^st 2008, p.83.

17 Institutul de Finante Internationale din Washington a clasificat drept “piete in devenire” tarile din patru regiuni ale lumii: Asia/Pacific: China, India, Indonezia, Malazia, Philippinele, Korea de Sud si Thailand; America Latina: Argentina, Brazilia, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Peru, Uruguay si Venesuela; Europa: Bulgaria, Republica Cheha, Ungaria, Polonia, Romania, Russia, Slovacia si Turcia; Africa:/Orientul Mijlociu: Algeria, Egypt, Morocco, Africa de Sud si Tunisia. La aceste economii in devenire ar trebui sa mai fie adaugate si alte tari, cum ar fi Azerbaijan, Armenia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Moldova, Ukraina si alte republici ex-Sovietice, deasemenea Albania, Croatia, Serbia, Slovenia, Vietnam si alte tari ex-communiste.

18 Ins and outs. A bigger world. A special report on Globalization. September 20^th 2008, The Economist, September 20^th-26^th 2008, p.10

19 Developing Economies Face Reckoning as U.S. Stumbles, by Patrick Barta and Markus Walker, The Wall Street Journal, January 24, 2008; Gulf markets suffer heavy losses, by Andrew England and Simeaon Kerr, The Financial Times, October 6 2008

20 Baltic Riots Spread to Lithuania in the Face of Deteriorating Economic Conditions, by Ellen Barry, The New York Times, January 17, 2009

21 Domino theory. Where could emerging-market contagion spread next? The Economist, February 28^th-March 6^th 2009, p. 82.

22 The whiff of contagion. The Economist, February 28^th-March 6^th 2009.

23 As it Falters, Estern Europe Raises Risks, by Neson D.Shcwartz. New York Times, February 23, 2009

24 Is the 2007 U.S. Sub-Prime Financial Crisis So Different? An International Historical Comparison, http://www.nber.org/w13761, January, 2008, p.10; Banking Crises: An Equal Opportunity Menace, http://www.nber.org/w14587, December, 2008, p.3-4; The Aftermath of Financial Crises, http://www.nber.org/w14656, January, 2009, p.1.

25 Krugman, Paul, The Return of Depression Economics and the Crisis of 2008. W.W.Norton & Company, Inc.,, 2009, p.54-55.

26 America Will Remain the Superpower, by Bret Stephens. The Wall Street Journal, October 14 2008.

27 Global Financial Crisis: Responding Today, Securing Tomorrow. Background Paper prepared by the World Bank Group G20 Summit on Financial Markets and the World Economy. November 15, 2008, p.6; Redesigning global finance, The Economist, November 15^th-21^st, 2008, p.15; Goldman Sachs Global Economics Weekly. Issue No: 09/15, April 22, 2009, p.3-4.

28 A glimmer of hope? The Economist, April 25^th-May 1^st 2009, p.13.

29 Emerging Markets: Stumble or fall. The Economist, January 10^th-16^th, 2009, p.63; IMF Says Global Recession is Deepest Since Great Depression, by Tom Barkley and Bob Davis. The Wall Street Journal, April 23, 2009.

30 The International financial Crisis: What Next for Emerging Markets? By Michael U.Klein. Lecture delivered at the Munich Finance Summit, November 6, 2008.

31 Global Economics Weekly, Issue No: 09/01, January 7, 2009; IMF World Economic Outlook. April 2009, p.10.

32 Economics Weekly. Goldman Sachs Global Economics. Issue No:09/11March 18, 2009

33 World Economic Outlook. April 2008. Housing and the Business Cycle. International Monetary Fund, p.23. (http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2008/01/pdf/text.pdf)

34 When fortune frowned. A special report on the world economy. October 11^th 2008, p. 22. The Economist, October 11^th-17^th 2008.

35 Rise of the emerging market superpower, by Brian Collings, The Financial Times, October 5 2008

36 For BRIC Consumers, Pain from the West Builds, by Andrew Batson, Daria Solovieva and Eric Bellman. The Wall Street Journal, October 13, 2008; View of the Day: BRICS to the rescue? By Alex Patelis, The Financial Times, October 15 2008.

37 Why it would be wrong to write off the Brics, by Jim O’Neill, The Financial Times, January 5, 2009

38 Emerging Markets: Stumble or Fall? The Economist, January 10^th-16^th 2009, p.64.

39 Zakaria, Fareed. The Post-American World. W.W.Norton & Company, New-York, 2008.

40 Developing Economies Face Reckoning as U.S. Stumbles, by Patrick Barta and Marcus Walker, The Wall Street Journal, January 24, 2008; Economies Search for Growth. Davos Forum Focuses on Halting the Slide and Climbing Back, by Joelin Perry. The Wall Street Journal, January 28, 2009.

41 Business New Europe (www.businessneweurope.eu), Moscow Blog: Is it really that bad?, January 29, 2009; 20 years of Going Nowhere, by Vladimir Ryzhkov. Moscow Times, April 28, 2009.

42 www.businessneweurope.eu, January 29, 2009.

43 IMF World Economic Outlook. April 2009, p.84

44 After a ‘Spontaneous’ Riot, Moldovans Look for Answers, by Ellen Barry, The New York Times, April 8, 2009.

45 Reversal of Fortune, by Arcady Ostrovsky. Foreign Policy, March/April 2009.

46 Drama 2008: from economic miracle to economic crisis, by V.Mau, Вопросы Экономики, N 2, 2009, p.4 (www.vopreko.ru/rus).

47 Test of maturity. Editorial, Financial Times, March 17, 2009; Russia’s Big Bang, by Marshal Goldman. Moscow Times, October 20, 2008.

48 What Crisis? Kremlin downplays financial woes, by Catrina Stewart and Natalya Vasilyeva, AP, Moscow, October 15 2008

49 Government pledges more anti-crisis efforts. RosbusinessConsulting, March 16, 2009; Soaring unemployment and a shrinking economy point to long winters of discontent, by Kathryn Hopkins. The Guardian, March 17, 2009.

50 Mikhail Gorbachev: The Decay of Socialism and the Renaissance of Eastern Europe (from the perspective of an insider), by Ceslav Ciobanu. East European Politics and Societies, Vol.18, N.1, 2004.

51 Russia braced for unrest, by Isabel Gorst and Anuj Gangahar, The Financial Times, December 26, 2008.

52 Medvedev Says Stimulus Is Moving Too Slowly, The Wall Street Journal, January 12, 2009.

53 The Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on Russia, by Peter Rutland. Russian Analytical Digest, No 48, October 17, 2008, p.2.

54 Info-Prim Neo, May 7, 2009

55 http://www.opendemocracy.net/article/email/moldova-recession-hits-a-frozen-conflict; See also Political Economy of “Frozen conflicts” in ex-Soviet States: Challenges and Prospects for the U.S. and Russia, by Ceslav Ciobanu. Virginia Social Science Journal, Vol.43, 2008.

56 This issue is analyzed in details by Goldman’s Sachs economists: EMs in the Crosshairs, October 29, 2008; Strategy Matters. March 5, 2009;

57 Easter Europe’s Woes Rock Confidence in Western Banks, by Marc Champion, Joana Slater and Carrick Mollenkamp. The Wall Street Journal, February 19, 2008.

58 Eastern Europe and the Financial Crisis, by David Roach. The Wall Street Journal, March 28, 2009.

59 Emerging Markets: Time to Invest? By David Bogoslaw. Business Week, March 4, 2009

60 A Crisis Is Separating Eastern Europe’s Strong From Its Weak, by Dan Bilefsky, The New York Times, February 23, 2009.

61 EU Will Increase Funds For Stricken Economies, By Adam Cohen. The Wall Street Journal, March 21-22, 2009.

62 The Odor Across the Oder. The Wall Street Journal, February 28, 2009.

63 Crisis management in the European Union, by Sylvester C.W.Eijffinger. Center for Economic Policy Research. Policy Insight No 27, December 2008 (www.cepr.org)

64 Sarbox and the Constitution. The Wall Street Journal, May 19, 2009.

65 Russia Above USD, Komersant, March 17, 2009; Kremlin’s Arshine for G20, Nezavisimaya Gazeta, March 17, 2009; Russia unveils G20 plan to reform ‘obsolescent’ world order. AFP, Moscow, March 16, 2009.

66 Global Financial Crisis and Its Impact on Russia, by A.Kudrin, Вопросы Экономики, N.1, 2009; Russian finance Minister Kudrin on Combating Crisis, Its history, Budget Support. Vedomosti, April 22, 2009; 2008 Crisis: “Moment of Truth” for the Global Economy and New Opportunities for Russia, by M.Ershov. Вопросы Экономики, N.12, 2008; 2008 Drama: From Economic Miracle to Economic Crisis, by V.Mau. Вопросы Экономики, N.2, 2009; Interview of Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergey Lavrov with the BBC Russian Service, April 23, 2009. The Johnson Russia’s List, April 28, 2009.

67 Lessons from a crisis, by Josef Ackerman, chef executive of Deutsche Bank. The World in 2009. The Economist, p. 150.

68 EU finance ministers seek more Aid, Greater Role for IMF in Global Crisis, by Adam Cohen, The Wall Street Journal, March 19, 2009.

69 The New Paradigm for Financial Markets. The Credit Crisis of 2008 and What it Means, by George Soros. Public Affairs, New York, 2008.

70 Programul de stabilizare si relansare economica a Republicii Moldova pe anii 2009-2011. November 19, 2009. http://www.azi.md/ro/print-story/6996

71 IPN, November 12, 2009.