2650’
RUNWAY END
GLIDE PATH
COMPUTED
CENTER LINE OF PT
MEAN 136.5’
ARRIVAL OVER PT
200’
34:1 S
LOP
E
DFW SOUTH FLOW
RUNWAY 17C ARRIVAL
NORTH
EL 562.4
RUNWAY 17C – 13,401’
X
150’
SOUTH
EL 562.2
13 FT HIGH BARRIER EL 575.4
1100’
NOT TO SCALE
72.06’
EL 634.46
FIGURE 5 Arrival Path of an Aircraft over the PT
Estimating the probability of flying below the minimum threshold
This section estimates the probability of flying below the FAA established thresholds. Based on
the earlier comparisons of the height data to the normal distribution, this section makes the
assumption that the data is normally distributed for all runways. While most of the data is not
normally distributed, this assumption is still being considered conservative because the data is
concentrated closer to the mean and most of the outliers are on the upper end of the distribution.
In Table 7, the FAA defines the arrival path at a 34:1 slope, which begins at 200 feet from the
end of the runway, and indicates that a minimum height of 72 feet is required at the PT centerline
for clearance of an aircraft taxiing on the PT. Table 7 shows the computations for probability of
aircraft height falling below FAA/AOSC standards [2] for arrival runways, 17C, 18R, 35C and
36L. The data indicates that the minimum height that aircraft overfly the PT on the approach
path is well above the 72 feet recommended by the FAA/AOSC, and the probability of flying
below 72 feet over the PT is very close to zero, as shown in Table 8. Therefore, the PT appears
relatively safe to operate under existing flight standards and guidelines established by the FAA
for arrival aircraft. The lowest height at which any aircraft has flown over the centerline of PT is
95 ft in 2002.
TABLE 8 Risk Assessment for Arrival Aircraft Overflying the PT
Runway
17C
18R
35C
36L
Approach Path Slope
34:1
34:1
34:1
34:1
X
260
255
206
209
Satyamurti and Mattingly
11
________________________________________________________________________
11
S
39.6
41.0
32.0
26.6
Z (72)
-4.732
-4.466
-4.176
-5.136
P ( x < 72)
1.1x10
-6
4.0x10
-6
1.5x10
-5
1.4x10
-7
Table 9 shows the computations for the probability of departure height on the four runways, 17R,
18L, 35L and 36R falling below the FAA/AOSC standards. The departure aircraft typically
gains altitude well in excess of the 65 feet minimum established by the FAA/AOSC for all five
data dates selected for analysis. The lowest altitude for an aircraft departing over the proposed
PT is 323 ft in 2001 and 2002. The probability of not flying above the 65 feet is shown in Table
8 for the four departure runways. Based on the observed risk levels, the PT appears safe to
operate for departures under the existing flight standards and guidelines established by the
FAA/AOSC. While the mean heights are much higher for departure paths, the over flying risk
appears greater due to the significant variation in departure paths.
TABLE 9 Risk Assessment for Departure Aircraft Overflying the PT
Runway
17R
18L
35L
36R
Departure Path Slope
40:1
40:1
40:1
40:1
X
1260
1200
1340
1370
S
294
277
318
285
Z (65)
-4.057
-4.179
-4.018
-4.585
P ( x < 65)
2.5x10
-5
1.5x10
-5
2.9x10
-5
2.3x10
-6
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