Nigeria 2015: analysis of election issues and future prospects

	Nigeria 2015: analysis of election issues and future prospects RESEARCH PAPER 15/02 19 January 2015
		This paper looks at the multiple challenges facing Nigeria as it prepares for presidential and legislative elections on 14 February 2015. These elections will take place amidst an atmosphere of even greater crisis and uncertainty than usual. Boko Haram’s insurgency in the north of the country continues unabated. Over the last year, President Goodluck Jonathan and the ruling People’s Democratic Party have been accused of a complacent and incompetent response to the insurgency. These developments, combined with deep divisions within the country’s elite, have resurrected old fears that the country might break up if the election aftermath is poorly handled. However, some observers remain remarkably hopeful about Nigeria’s future, predicting that its enormous economic potential is on the verge of being realised at last. The paper surveys the coming elections and then explores these hopes and fears about Nigeria’s future. It goes on to describe Nigeria’s relationships with the US, UK, EU, China and India before ending with a detailed country profile of Nigeria. “I sorry sorry o, I sorry for Nigeria” – song lyric by Femi Kuti “We know our time will come” – Finance Minister Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala
	Jon Lunn and Daniel Harari

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Contributing Authors: Rob Page, sections 3.1-3.3 and 4.4

Louisa Brooke-Holland, section 4.7

Ben Smith, section 4.11

Matthew Ward, sections 2.2, 3.1-3.3 and 4.5

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ISSN 1368-8456
Contents

Summary 7

1Nigerian elections 2015: an update 10

2Future prospects 19

3Nigeria’s foreign relations 36

4Nigeria: country profile 51

5Select bibliography and web sources 90

MAP OF NIGERIA
Source: UN

Summary

Nigeria – Africa’s most populous country by far, with a population of 177 million people and now its biggest economy – provokes wildly divergent assessments of its prospects. This paper explores that stark disjuncture as the country gears up for crucial presidential, legislative and state-level elections in February 2015.
In these elections, incumbent president Goodluck Jonathan, representing the ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP), will again face the man he defeated in 2011, Muhammadu Buhari, representing the All Progressives Congress (APC).
2011 presidential election: north-south alternation breaks down

Until the 2011 elections, the PDP, which has won all the presidential and National Assembly elections held since Nigeria’s return to civilian rule in 1999, operated an informal ‘zoning’ arrangement, under which the presidency would alternate every two terms between southern and northern representatives of the party.

Jonathan, a Christian southerner, unexpectedly became president in 2010, following the death in office of Umaru Yar’Adua, a Muslim northerner, before he had completed his first term. Jonathan’s decision to stand in 2011 alienated many northerners in the PDP who felt that it should be the north’s turn again.

The breakdown of the PDP’s informal zoning arrangement in 2011 did not in the end greatly damage Jonathan’s prospects. He won a convincing victory. But there are those who argue that by overturning the zoning arrangement, he seriously destabilised the country’s ruling elite and inadvertently created space for Boko Haram’s insurgency in the north to flourish.

2015 elections: the stakes are high

Jonathan’s decision to stand for a second term in 2015 has provoked further controversy but the PDP has rallied around him, turning the nomination process into a coronation.

The APC, which is a coming together of four opposition parties, represents the biggest threat that the PDP has faced to its dominance. The APC has strong constituencies of support in both the north and the south-west. However, the PDP remains a formidable electoral machine and enjoys the advantages of incumbency.
There is grave concern that meaningful elections will not be possible in the three north-eastern states (Borno, Yobe and Adamawa) where a state of emergency is currently in force due to Boko Haram’s insurgency. This could damage the APC’s chances.
Some observers forecast that the presidential election will go to a second round for the first time since Nigeria returned to civilian rule in 1999.
Both parties have been careful to select ‘balanced tickets’, in which a Muslim candidate is complemented by a Christian candidate, but many fear that, whoever wins eventually, there could be unprecedented levels of violence in the election aftermath.
Could Nigeria fall apart?

There has been no shortage of predictions since independence in 1960 that the country is ‘going to hell in a handcart’. Only once have the direst predictions proven accurate – the Biafran civil war between 1967 and 1970.

The crucial question is whether the underlying political settlement that has helped to hold the country together since then is sufficiently robust to ensure that the centre holds in 2015 and beyond.
Nigerian national identity has no automatic privilege over ethnic, religious or regional identities. The country has been held together primarily by the ability and willingness of different parts of Nigeria’s elite to agree deals on the distribution of power and resources. All parties to these deals have sought to avoid a ‘winner-takes-all’ politics, in which the defeated are left with next to nothing.
This elite deal-making has been sustained by a political economy of patronage which became deeply entrenched following the start of oil production in the 1970s.
Many northerners currently feel politically and economically marginalised. Other Nigerians, most notably those from the oil-rich Niger Delta, retain strong memories of the north’s previous dominance, particularly during successive periods of military rule. With the boot now on the other foot, it is unclear how far the north’s grievances will be accommodated.
A National Conference was held in 2014 to discuss Nigeria’s future direction. President Jonathan has promised to implement its recommendations, which include formalising the north-south zoning arrangement that has fallen into disuse since 2011. Only time will tell if this promise is honoured.
Nigeria: an emerging economic giant?

Stabilising the existing political settlement in Nigeria, in which patronage has been the animating force, might be considered an undesirable objective if – as most analysts believe – it has held back economic development.

There has been plenty of debate amongst academics and policy-makers about whether Nigeria is capable of making a transition towards forms of government which promote greater (and more inclusive) economic development. Inevitably, verdicts vary. While pessimists are probably in the majority, there are a significant number of optimists too.
Optimists about Nigeria’s longer-term economic prospects tend to focus on potential for growth inherent in a rising population and the emergence of fast-growing industries such as telecommunications.

Jim O’Neill, the Goldman Sachs economist who coined the term ‘BRICS’ at the beginning of the 2000s to describe a group of emerging economies (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) that were set to grow rapidly, has gone so far as to include Nigeria in the next generation of emerging economies – the ‘MINT’s’ (Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria and Turkey).

O’Neill believes that Nigeria could be one of the top 15 largest economies in the world by 2050. Nigeria was the world’s 23^rd largest economy in 2013, so on the face of it this looks achievable.

However, deep structural challenges remain, such as the Nigerian economy’s dependence on oil, high poverty levels and the nation’s poor infrastructure. Optimists about Nigeria’s economic future acknowledge that successfully tackling these structural impediments is essential if the country’s undoubted potential is to be fulfilled.

Boko Haram: symptom or cause of crisis?

Boko Haram’s vicious brand of Islamist terrorism is more a powerful symptom of Nigeria’s current crisis than one of its root causes. But it is playing a role in deepening that crisis today – to the point where it could become life-threatening for the country.

Over the last year, President Goodluck Jonathan and the ruling People’s Democratic Party have been accused of a complacent and incompetent response to the insurgency.
However, most analysts agree that, if Boko Haram is defeated militarily – an outcome far from guaranteed, given the parlous state of the country’s security forces and their own poor human rights record – without being accompanied by appropriate structural political and economic reforms, Nigeria’s underlying problems will almost certainly re-emerge before too long, whether in a similar or new guise.

What influence do Western countries have?

Western powers such as the US, UK and EU have relatively limited leverage over Nigeria. The country’s large size and economic weight reduce their influence. Nigeria is not dependent on foreign aid in the way many of its African neighbours are. The US, UK and EU are cautious about becoming closely involved in supporting Nigeria’s counter-insurgency efforts given the poor human rights record of its security forces.

Despite increasing engagement, the same relative lack of influence over Nigeria affects rising powers such as China and India too.

However, all of these powers are acutely aware of the strategic importance of Nigeria in Africa and beyond: Nigeria’s fate matters enormously to the wider world.

1.